Showing papers in "Population Studies-a Journal of Demography in 2018"
TL;DR: Models of predictors show that transitions into extended families are largely a response to social and economic needs, and racial/ethnic and SES differences are substantial.
Abstract: This study uses nationally representative longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, to examine the prevalence and predictors of extended family households among children in the Uni...
56 citations
TL;DR: It is shown that internal migration generally had small feminizing, downgrading educational, and demographic window effects: reducing the local sex ratio, lowering the average years of schooling, and raising the share of working-age population due to an increased young adult population.
Abstract: Internal migration is a key driver of patterns of human settlement and socio-economic development, but little is known about its compositional impacts. Exploiting the wide availability of census data, we propose a method to quantify the internal migration impacts on local population structures, and estimate these impacts for eight large Latin American cities. We show that internal migration generally had small feminizing, downgrading educational, and demographic window effects: reducing the local sex ratio, lowering the average years of schooling, and raising the share of working-age population due to an increased young adult population. Over time, a rise in the proportion of males and a drop in the share of the young adult population moving into cities reduced the feminizing and demographic window effects. Concurrently, a rise in the average years of schooling associated with people moving into cities attenuated the downgrading impact of internal migration on local education levels.
41 citations
TL;DR: This collection of original essays makes for a good book and, I will argue, an important book.
Abstract: This collection of original essays makes for a good book and, I will argue, an important book. It is a good book in that it is logically structured, and a consistent theme runs through the chapters...
37 citations
TL;DR: This study examines disability patterns preceding death using data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing to identify the most common pathways preceding death in terms of walking ability and limitations in activities of daily living.
Abstract: The role of socio-economic status (SES) in the last years of life is an under-researched aspect of health inequalities. This study examines disability patterns preceding death using data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. We use repeated measures latent class analysis to identify the most common pathways preceding death in terms of walking ability and limitations in activities of daily living. Three pathways emerge: one characterized by consistently low disability; a second by a constant high level of functional limitations; and a third by medium impairment. We examine how different SES indicators predict belonging to each disability pathway. Conditional on income, higher wealth is associated with a lower likelihood of belonging to the high disability pathway. Contrary to our expectations, we find no educational gradient in the pathways preceding death. Health inequalities in the last years of life seem to exist especially between individuals with different levels of wealth.
32 citations
TL;DR: Using longitudinal register data from Sweden, annual order-specific migration rates are calculated to investigate the spatial mobility of young adults over the last three decades and support neither ever increasing mobility nor a long-term rise in rootedness among young adults in Sweden.
Abstract: The aim of this study is to investigate spatial mobility over time. Research on 'new mobilities' suggests increasing movement of individuals, technology, and information. By contrast, studies of in ...
29 citations
TL;DR: Competing risks event history models are applied to data from the British Household Panel Survey and the UK Household Longitudinal Study to analyse the risk of a residential move to different tenure types, for single, married, cohabiting, and separated men and women.
Abstract: PartnerLife is supported by a grant from the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO, grant no. 464-13-148), the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, grant no. WA 1502/6-1) and the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC, grant no. ES/L01663X/1) in the Open Research Area Plus scheme.
22 citations
TL;DR: Trends in the quantum of cohort fertility among the baby boom generations in 15 countries and how these relate to women’s education are analyzed are analyzed.
Abstract: In Europe and the United States, women’s educational attainment started to increase around the middle of the twentieth century. The expected implication was fertility decline and postponement, wher ...
18 citations
TL;DR: Using data from Finland, this paper contributes to a small but growing body of research regarding adult children's education, occupation, and income and their parents' mortality at ages 50+ in 1970–2007.
Abstract: Using data from Finland, this paper contributes to a small but growing body of research regarding adult children's education, occupation, and income and their parents' mortality at ages 50+ in 1970-2007. Higher levels of children's education are associated with 30-36 per cent lower parental mortality at ages 50-75, controlling for parents' education, occupation, and income. This association is fully mediated by children's occupation and income, except for cancer mortality. Having at least one child educated in healthcare is associated with 11-16 per cent lower all-cause mortality at ages 50-75, an association that is largely driven by mortality from cardiovascular diseases. Children's higher white-collar occupation and higher income is associated with 39-46 per cent lower mortality in the fully adjusted models. At ages 75+, these associations are much smaller overall and children's schooling remains more strongly associated with mortality than children's occupation or income.
18 citations
TL;DR: It is found that although fertility was counter-cyclical before 1970, with good economic times being associated with lower fertility, since then it has become pro- cyclical, withGood economic timesbeing associated with higher fertility.
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate whether there has been a fundamental change in the relationship between economic conditions and fertility. We use panel data methods to study the short-term changes in total fertility and the unemployment rate in a range of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries from 1957 to 2014. We find that although fertility was counter-cyclical before 1970, with good economic times being associated with lower fertility, since then it has become pro-cyclical, with good economic times being associated with higher fertility.
18 citations
TL;DR: A new mortality model based on a mixture distribution function that serves as a convenient compromise between the Heligman–Pollard model and the Siler model, which is more compact but fails to capture ‘accident humps’.
Abstract: A new mortality model based on a mixture distribution function is proposed. We mix a half-normal distribution with a generalization of the skew-normal distribution. As a result, we get a six-parameter distribution function that has a good fit with a wide variety of mortality patterns. This mixture model is fitted to several mortality data schedules and compared with the Siler (five-parameter) and Heligman-Pollard (eight-parameter) models. Our proposal serves as a convenient compromise between the Heligman-Pollard model (which ensures a good fit with data but is often overparameterized) and the Siler model (which is more compact but fails to capture 'accident humps').
17 citations
TL;DR: A hierarchical (bilinear) model within the Bayesian inferential framework is tested, recently developed to forecast age and sex patterns of immigration and emigration in the United Kingdom, on other types of migration flow data: age- and sex-specific time series from Sweden, South Korea, and Australia.
Abstract: International migration flows are considered the most difficult demographic component to forecast and, for that reason, models for forecasting migration are few and relatively undeveloped. This is worrying because, in developed societies, international migration is often the largest component of population growth and most influential in debates about societal and economic change. In this paper, we address the need for better forecasting models of international migration by testing a hierarchical (bilinear) model within the Bayesian inferential framework, recently developed to forecast age and sex patterns of immigration and emigration in the United Kingdom, on other types of migration flow data: age- and sex-specific time series from Sweden, South Korea, and Australia. The performances of the forecasts are compared and assessed with the observed time-series data. The results demonstrate the generality and flexibility of the model and of Bayesian inference for forecasting migration, as well as for further research.
TL;DR: The evidence generally supports theories emphasizing cultural persistence in preferences, rather than theories of adaption or immigrant selectivity, on immigrants’ sex preferences.
Abstract: Parental sex preferences have been documented in many native populations, but much less evidence is available on immigrants’ preferences for the sexes of their children. Using high-quality longitud...
TL;DR: Evidence is presented from 44 in-depth interviews with Polish parents in the United Kingdom and Poland that individuals in Poland used richer European countries as an important reference point, rather than recent conditions in Poland, to help explain why fertility has remained at very low levels in poorer European countries, while migrants from those countries often have higher fertility abroad.
Abstract: In research and policy discourse, conceptualizations of fertility decision-making often assume that people only consider circumstances within national borders. In an integrated Europe, citizens may know about and compare conditions across countries. Such comparisons may influence the way people think about and respond to childrearing costs. To explore this possibility and its implications, we present evidence from 44 in-depth interviews with Polish parents in the United Kingdom and Poland. Explanations of childbearing decisions involved comparisons of policy packages and living standards across countries. Individuals in Poland used richer European countries as an important reference point, rather than recent conditions in Poland. In contrast, migrants often positively assessed their relatively disadvantaged circumstances by using the Polish setting as a reference. The findings could help explain why, despite substantial policy efforts, fertility has remained at very low levels in poorer European countries, while migrants from those countries often have higher fertility abroad.
TL;DR: A simpler approach is proposed that is more compatible with existing UN projection methods for other countries, and gives similar short-run projections to Spectrum/EPP, while being simpler and avoiding multistate modelling.
Abstract: In 2015, the United Nations (UN) issued probabilistic population projections for all countries up to 2100, by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy and combining the results using a standard cohort component projection method. For the 40 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics, the mortality projections used the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model, a complex, multistate model designed for short-term projections of policy-relevant quantities for the epidemic. We propose a simpler approach that is more compatible with existing UN projection methods for other countries. Changes in life expectancy are projected probabilistically using a simple time series regression and then converted to age- and sex-specific mortality rates using model life tables designed for countries with HIV/AIDS epidemics. These are then input to the cohort component method, as for other countries. The method performed well in an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment. It gives similar short-run projections to Spectrum/EPP, while being simpler and avoiding multistate modelling.
TL;DR: Using the Scottish Longitudinal Study, the potential value of General Practitioner administrative health data from the National Health Service that can be linked into census-based longitudinal studies for advancing migration research is evaluated.
Abstract: Migration is a core component of population change and is both a symptom and a cause of major economic and social phenomena However, data limitations mean that gaps remain in our understanding of the patterns and processes of mobility This is particularly the case for internal migration, which remains under-researched, despite being quantitatively much more significant than international migration Using the Scottish Longitudinal Study, this paper evaluates the potential value of General Practitioner administrative health data from the National Health Service that can be linked into census-based longitudinal studies for advancing migration research Issues relating to data quality are considered and, using the illustrative example of internal migration by country of birth, an argument is developed contending that such approaches can offer novel ways of comprehending internal migration, by shedding additional light on the nature of both movers and the moves that they make
TL;DR: Results from separating premature and old-age mortality, using the MIRA, suggest there has been a switch from reducing premature deaths to extending the premature age range; a shift potentially signalling a looming limit to the share of premature deaths.
Abstract: Rectangularization of the survival curve-a key analytical framework in mortality research-relies on assumptions that have become partially obsolete in high-income countries due to mortality reductions among the oldest old. We propose refining the concept to adjust for recent and potential future mortality changes. Our framework, the 'maximum inner rectangle approach' (MIRA) considers two types of rectangularization. Outer rectangularization captures progress in mean lifespan relative to progress in maximum lifespan. Inner rectangularization captures progress in lifespan equality relative to progress in mean lifespan. Empirical applications show that both processes have generally increased since 1850. However, inner rectangularization has displayed country-specific patterns since the onset of sustained old-age mortality declines. Results from separating premature and old-age mortality, using the MIRA, suggest there has been a switch from reducing premature deaths to extending the premature age range; a shift potentially signalling a looming limit to the share of premature deaths.
TL;DR: It is found that those born to older mothers do not suffer any significant mortality disadvantage, and that thoseBorn to older fathers have lower mortality, likely to be explained by secular declines in mortality counterbalancing the negative effects of reproductive ageing.
Abstract: As parental ages at birth continue to rise, concerns about the effects of fertility postponement on offspring are increasing. Due to reproductive ageing, advanced parental ages have been associated...
TL;DR: A regression-based approach to the modelling of age-, order-, and duration-specific period fertility, using retrospective survey data for Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe, produces results that are free of selection biases and can be used to study differential fertility.
Abstract: We describe a regression-based approach to the modelling of age-, order-, and duration-specific period fertility, using retrospective survey data. The approach produces results that are free of selection biases and can be used to study differential fertility. It is applied to Demographic and Health Survey data for Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe to investigate differential trends in fertility by education. Parity progression fell and the intervals following each birth lengthened between the 1970s and 2000s in all four countries. Fertility fell most among women with secondary education. In contrast to other world regions, postponement of successive births for extended periods accounted for much of the initial drop in fertility in these African countries. However, family size limitation by women with secondary education in Ethiopia and Kenya and longer birth spacing in Zimbabwe also played significant roles. Thus, birth control is being adopted in Eastern Africa in response to diverse changes in fertility preferences.
TL;DR: This work cross-validates the levels of, and describes the trends in, union formation and fertility between 1980 and 2010 and finds relative resilience of childbearing patterns compared with other CEE countries.
Abstract: Fertility decline in central and eastern Europe (CEE) since the fall of the communist regimes has been driven by both stopping and postponement of childbearing: two processes that have been related...
TL;DR: The analysis of Finnish register data from 1971 to 2003 finds that child loss only modestly influences the divorce risk, whereas its effect on the risk of parity progression is considerable.
Abstract: Most studies that have examined whether a child's death influences parental relationship stability have used small-scale data sets and their results are inconclusive. A likely reason is that child loss affects not only the risk of parental separation, but also the risk of having another child. Hence parity progression and separation must be treated as two competing events in relation to child loss. The analysis in this paper used Finnish register data from 1971 to 2003, covering over 100,000 married couples whose durations of both first marriage and parenthood could be observed. We ran parity-specific Cox regressions in which process time started from the birth of each additional child. All marriages included women of childbearing age, none of whom had experienced any child death on entering the analysis. We find that child loss only modestly influences the divorce risk, whereas its effect on the risk of parity progression is considerable.
TL;DR: This study shows that mortality is highest for firstborn children with very young mothers and the implications of alternative reproductive ‘strategies’ are discussed, taking into account that if the mother is older at birth, the child will also be born in a later calendar year, when mortality may be lower.
Abstract: There is still considerable uncertainty about how reproductive factors affect child mortality. This study, based on Demographic and Health Survey data from 28 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, shows that mortality is highest for firstborn children with very young mothers. Other children with young mothers, or of high birth order, also experience high mortality. Net of maternal age and birth order, a short preceding birth interval is associated with above average mortality. These patterns change, however, if time-invariant unobserved mother-level characteristics of importance for both mortality and fertility are controlled for in a multilevel-multiprocess model. Most importantly, there are smaller advantages associated with longer birth intervals and being older at first birth. The implications of alternative reproductive 'strategies' are discussed, taking into account that if the mother is older at birth, the child will also be born in a later calendar year, when mortality may be lower.
TL;DR: Whether the length of the birth interval preceding the index child influences the risk of preterm birth, low birth weight, and hospitalization during childhood is examined in Swedish population data on cohorts born 1981–2010 and sibling fixed effects.
Abstract: A large body of research has shown that children born after especially short or long birth intervals experience an elevated risk of poor perinatal outcomes, but recent work suggests this may be exp ...
TL;DR: Book review of Model-Based Demography: Essays on Integrating Data, Technique and Theory, which concludes that model-based Demography should be considered as a stand-alone discipline.
Abstract: Book review of Model-Based Demography: Essays on Integrating Data, Technique and Theory. 2018. By THOMAS K. BURCH. Demographic Research Monographs Series. Cham: Springer. Pp. xviii+200. Open access (online) / £44.99 (hardcover). ISBN: 978-3-319-65433-1.
TL;DR: Demography of Russia: From the Past to the Present (2017) as mentioned in this paper explores the demography of Russian in its historical and contemporary dimensions, focusing on the past and present.
Abstract: Demography of Russia: From the Past to the Present (2017) explores the demography of Russia in its historical and contemporary dimensions. Written by a group of scholars—Tatiana Karabchuk (United A...
TL;DR: A microsimulation model is used to assess the respective roles of mortality, nuptiality, fertility, and immigration on the size and dynamics of the baby boom in Quebec, Canada and substantiate the hypothesis that the epidemiologic transition was an important cause of thebaby boom.
Abstract: Recent research on the baby boom and its causes has shown that common explanations, such as the recuperation of births following the Great Depression or Second World War, are not sufficient to account for the phenomenon. However, that research has stressed the role of increasing nuptiality. In this paper, we argue that the increase in survivorship of children and young people that resulted from the epidemiologic transition accounted for a large portion of the increased number of births during the baby boom. We use a microsimulation model to assess the respective roles of mortality, nuptiality, fertility, and immigration on the size and dynamics of the boom in Quebec, Canada. Results show that decreasing mortality contributed significantly to the baby boom, along with immigration and nuptiality changes, while fertility rates attenuated the phenomenon. These results substantiate the hypothesis that the epidemiologic transition was an important cause of the baby boom.
TL;DR: The paper quantifies the likely MMR for a ‘Stone and Smellie style’ birth attendance and concludes that the wider dissemination of their techniques can explain the decline in the British MMR.
Abstract: This is a book review turned research paper. The aim is to estimate the differences in the maternal mortality rate (MMR) between untrained midwives, expert midwives, and the famous obstetrician Dr Smellie in eighteenth-century Britain. The paper shows that the birth attendance practices of the expert midwife Mrs Stone and of Dr Smellie were very similar, though Stone used her hands whereas Smellie used forceps. Both applied the same invasive techniques to successfully deliver women with similar fatal complications, techniques that untrained midwives and most surgeons of the time could not perform. However, the same procedures, if used for normal births, would have increased the MMR. So, the key to the low MMR of both was that they kept interventions away from the majority of births that were normal. The paper quantifies the likely MMR for a ‘Stone and Smellie style’ birth attendance and concludes that the wider dissemination of their techniques can explain the decline in the British MMR.
TL;DR: The metric ‘mean duration of obesity’ is introduced to measure the average number of years lived with obesity in a population by estimating duration from periodic cross-sectional surveys for annual cohorts born in the United States between 1925 and 1989.
Abstract: This paper introduces the metric ‘mean duration of obesity’ to measure the average number of years lived with obesity in a population. A procedure was developed to estimate duration from periodic c...