Book ChapterDOI
A Bayesian Approach to Forecasting the Effects of Atypical Situations
TLDR
In this paper, a model for conditioning a forecast during periods when a time series exhibits atypical behavior is proposed, which is based on a Bayesian approach, requiring the assessment of a probability distribution to the proportionate change believed to result from the impending abnormal situation.Abstract:
A model is offered for conditioning a forecast during periods when a time series exhibits atypical behavior. The model is based on a Bayesian approach, requiring the assessment of a probability distribution to the proportionate change believed to result from the impending atypical situation.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Judgemental and statistical time series forecasting: a review of the literature
Richard Webby,Marcus O'Connor +1 more
TL;DR: This article reviewed the literature on the contributions of judgemental methods to the forecasting process using a contingent approach and found emphasis for the importance of judgement in providing contextual information for the final forecasts.
Journal ArticleDOI
Book Review: Multiple Imputation for Nonresponse in Surveys:
TL;DR: This monograph can be used as a textbook on the statistics of randomized response and is very well done, but will be of little use to most people in marketing and more than statistical knowledge is needed for a successful application of the method.
Journal ArticleDOI
Statistical forecasting—The state of the art
TL;DR: A survey of the state of the art of statistical forecasting as it exists in practice is given in this article, which covers: 1) the types of model in use 2) the ways these models are used to obtain forecasts 3) how the forecasts may be adapted or adjusted for effective practical use 4) how forecasts are analysed and controlled 5) how they are applied.
Journal ArticleDOI
Annotated Subject Index
TL;DR: Annotated Subject Indexes for Advertising and Media Research, Attitude and Opinion Research, and Minority Marketing are shown.
Journal ArticleDOI
Forecasting the impact of a new product introduction
TL;DR: In this article, a sales forecast for a product which has been on the market for a long time but for which the market environment has suddenly changed is presented, where virtually all past sales data is irrelevant for forecasting the sales of their large station wagons.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages
TL;DR: The paper presents a method of forecasting sales which has these desirable characteristics, and which in terms of ability to forecast compares favorably with other, more traditional methods.
Journal ArticleDOI
Statistical forecasting for inventory control
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a model for estimating the average rate of demand and the maximum reasonable demand during a lead time based on the Z-transform, which can be applied to the analysis and solution of inventory control problems.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Assessment of Prior Distributions in Bayesian Analysis
TL;DR: In this paper, a questionnaire is developed and used in a study in which people actually assess prior distributions, and the results indicate that, by and large, it is feasible to question people about subjective prior probability distributions, although this depends on t...
Journal ArticleDOI
Authors' reply re: BJOG Debate 'Home birth is unsafe'.
TL;DR: It is apparent that Ms Cohain has resorted to an ad hominem attack for the typical reason: one attacks the person and not the person's argument when one has no argument to make for one’s position.
Related Papers (5)
Incident Duration Prediction Based on Latent Gaussian Naive Bayesian classifier
Dawei Li,Lin Cheng,Jiangshan Ma +2 more