An Agent-Based Model of Evolving Community Flood Risk
Gina Tonn,Seth D. Guikema +1 more
TLDR
This study lends insight into priorities for future work, including the development of more in-depth behavioral and decision rules at the individual and community level, as well as a new modeling approach for integrating behavior, policy, flood hazards, and engineering interventions.Abstract:
Although individual behavior plays a major role in community flood risk, traditional flood risk models generally do not capture information on how community policies and individual decisions impact the evolution of flood risk over time. The purpose of this study is to improve the understanding of the temporal aspects of flood risk through a combined analysis of the behavioral, engineering, and physical hazard aspects of flood risk. Additionally, the study aims to develop a new modeling approach for integrating behavior, policy, flood hazards, and engineering interventions. An agent-based model (ABM) is used to analyze the influence of flood protection measures, individual behavior, and the occurrence of floods and near-miss flood events on community flood risk. The ABM focuses on the following decisions and behaviors: dissemination of flood management information, installation of community flood protection, elevation of household mechanical equipment, and elevation of homes. The approach is place based, with a case study area in Fargo, North Dakota, but is focused on generalizable insights. Generally, community mitigation results in reduced future damage, and individual action, including mitigation and movement into and out of high-risk areas, can have a significant influence on community flood risk. The results of this study provide useful insights into the interplay between individual and community actions and how it affects the evolution of flood risk. This study lends insight into priorities for future work, including the development of more in-depth behavioral and decision rules at the individual and community level.read more
Citations
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
Toward Convergence Disaster Research: Building Integrative Theories Using Simulation.
Ali Mostafavi,N. Emel Ganapati +1 more
TL;DR: Simulation methods could help researchers model the underlying mechanisms of disaster phenomena by enabling integration of qualitative and quantitative data and integrate theoretical elements on disasters across different disciplines for a more convergent understanding of complex relationships affecting resilience at different levels.
Journal ArticleDOI
Evolution of vulnerability of communities facing repeated hazards
TL;DR: This paper is the first of its kind to build a framework that addresses the complex interactions between repeated hazards, regional damage, mitigation decisions, and community vulnerability and enables researchers and regional planners to visualize and quantify how a community could evolve over time in response to repeated hazards.
Journal ArticleDOI
Hurricanes and Power System Reliability-The Effects of Individual Decisions and System-Level Hardening
TL;DR: A validated power-outage forecasting model is used in conjunction with an agent-based model to characterize how a community’s likelihood of losing power in repeated hurricanes is affected by the complex interactions among individuals’ behavioral responses in whether to engage in personal or collective action.
Journal ArticleDOI
Tracing resilience, social dynamics and behavioral change: a review of agent-based flood risk models
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors focus on the costliest climate-exacerbated hazard, flooding, and review computational agent-based models that include behavioral change and societal dynamics, and highlight that applying a complex adaptive system perspective to trace the evolution of resilience can lead to a better understanding of transformational adaptation.
Journal ArticleDOI
Resilience and equity: Quantifying the distributional effects of resilience-enhancing strategies in a smallholder agricultural system
TL;DR: In this article, a household-level agent-based model was developed to explore the equity of climate resilience in an Ethiopian smallholder farming system, and the potential effects of two RESs, involving access to seasonal climate forecasts and increases in non-farm job availability, on household food security under climate variability.
References
More filters
Book
Simulation Modeling and Analysis
Averill M. Law,W. David Kelton +1 more
TL;DR: The text is designed for a one-term or two-quarter course in simulation offered in departments of industrial engineering, business, computer science and operations research.
Journal ArticleDOI
Agent-based modeling: Methods and techniques for simulating human systems
TL;DR: Agent-based modeling is a powerful simulation modeling technique that has seen a number of applications in the last few years, including applications to real-world business problems, and its four areas of application are discussed by using real- world applications.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Protective Action Decision Model: Theoretical Modifications and Additional Evidence
TL;DR: Three applications are described (development of risk communication programs, evacuation modeling, and adoption of long-term hazard adjustments) and some of the research needed to address unresolved issues are identified.
Journal ArticleDOI
Facing the Unexpected: Disaster Preparedness and Response in the United States
TL;DR: Facing the Unexpected as mentioned in this paper presents the wealth of information derived from disasters around the world over the past 25 years and explores how these findings can improve disaster programs, identify remaining research needs, and discuss disaster within the broader context of sustainable development.
Journal ArticleDOI
A review of risk perceptions and other factors that influence flood mitigation behavior.
TL;DR: It is concluded that the current focus on risk perceptions as a means to explain and promote private flood mitigation behavior is not supported on either theoretical or empirical grounds.