An Aging Population And Growing Disease Burden Will Require ALarge And Specialized Health Care Workforce By 2025
Timothy M. Dall,Paul Gallo,Ritasree Chakrabarti,Terry West,April P. Semilla,Michael V. Storm +5 more
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The market indicators suggest that the current supply of many specialists throughout the United States is inadequate to meet the current demand, which could exacerbate already long wait times for appointments, reduce access to care for some of the nation's most vulnerable patients, and reduce patients' quality of life.Abstract:
As the US population ages, the increasing prevalence of chronic disease and complex medical conditions will have profound implications for the future health care system. We projected future prevalence of selected diseases and health risk factors to model future demand for health care services for each person in a representative sample of the current and projected future population. Based on changing demographic characteristics and expanded medical coverage under the Affordable Care Act, we project that the demand for adult primary care services will grow by approximately 14 percent between 2013 and 2025. Vascular surgery has the highest projected demand growth (31 percent), followed by cardiology (20 percent) and neurological surgery, radiology, and general surgery (each 18 percent). Market indicators such as long wait times to obtain appointments suggest that the current supply of many specialists throughout the United States is inadequate to meet the current demand. Failure to train sufficient numbers a...read more
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References
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Forecasting the Future of Cardiovascular Disease in the United States: A Policy Statement From the American Heart Association
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Hospital and Physician Volume or Specialization and Outcomes in Cancer Treatment: Importance in Quality of Cancer Care
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The current and projected economic burden of Parkinson's disease in the United States
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