Showing papers in "Population Health Metrics in 2010"

Projection of the year 2050 burden of diabetes in the US adult population: dynamic modeling of incidence, mortality, and prediabetes prevalence.

Abstract: People with diabetes can suffer from diverse complications that seriously erode quality of life. Diabetes, costing the United States more than $174 billion per year in 2007, is expected to take an increasingly large financial toll in subsequent years. Accurate projections of diabetes burden are essential to policymakers planning for future health care needs and costs. Using data on prediabetes and diabetes prevalence in the United States, forecasted incidence, and current US Census projections of mortality and migration, the authors constructed a series of dynamic models employing systems of difference equations to project the future burden of diabetes among US adults. A three-state model partitions the US population into no diabetes, undiagnosed diabetes, and diagnosed diabetes. A four-state model divides the state of "no diabetes" into high-risk (prediabetes) and low-risk (normal glucose) states. A five-state model incorporates an intervention designed to prevent or delay diabetes in adults at high risk. The authors project that annual diagnosed diabetes incidence (new cases) will increase from about 8 cases per 1,000 in 2008 to about 15 in 2050. Assuming low incidence and relatively high diabetes mortality, total diabetes prevalence (diagnosed and undiagnosed cases) is projected to increase from 14% in 2010 to 21% of the US adult population by 2050. However, if recent increases in diabetes incidence continue and diabetes mortality is relatively low, prevalence will increase to 33% by 2050. A middle-ground scenario projects a prevalence of 25% to 28% by 2050. Intervention can reduce, but not eliminate, increases in diabetes prevalence. These projected increases are largely attributable to the aging of the US population, increasing numbers of members of higher-risk minority groups in the population, and people with diabetes living longer. Effective strategies will need to be undertaken to moderate the impact of these factors on national diabetes burden. Our analysis suggests that widespread implementation of reasonably effective preventive interventions focused on high-risk subgroups of the population can considerably reduce, but not eliminate, future increases in diabetes prevalence.

Algorithms for enhancing public health utility of national causes-of-death data

Abstract: Coverage and quality of cause-of-death (CoD) data varies across countries and time. Valid, reliable, and comparable assessments of trends in causes of death from even the best systems are limited by three problems: a) changes in the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD) over time; b) the use of tabulation lists where substantial detail on causes of death is lost; and c) many deaths assigned to causes that cannot or should not be considered underlying causes of death, often called garbage codes (GCs). The Global Burden of Disease Study and the World Health Organization have developed various methods to enhance comparability of CoD data. In this study, we attempt to build on these approaches to enhance the utility of national cause-of-death data for public health analysis. Based on careful consideration of 4,434 country-years of CoD data from 145 countries from 1901 to 2008, encompassing 743 million deaths in ICD versions 1 to 10 as well as country-specific cause lists, we have developed a public health-oriented cause-of-death list. These 56 causes are organized hierarchically and encompass all deaths. Each cause has been mapped from ICD-6 to ICD-10 and, where possible, they have also been mapped to the International List of Causes of Death 1-5. We developed a typology of different classes of GCs. In each ICD revision, GCs have been identified. Target causes to which these GCs should be redistributed have been identified based on certification practice and/or pathophysiology. Proportionate redistribution, statistical models, and expert algorithms have been developed to redistribute GCs to target codes for each age-sex group. The fraction of all deaths assigned to GCs varies tremendously across countries and revisions of the ICD. In general, across all country-years of data available, GCs have declined from more than 43% in ICD-7 to 24% in ICD-10. In some regions, such as Australasia, GCs in 2005 are as low as 11%, while in some developing countries, such as Thailand, they are greater than 50%. Across different age groups, the composition of GCs varies tremendously - three classes of GCs steadily increase with age, but ambiguous codes within a particular disease chapter are also common for injuries at younger ages. The impact of redistribution is to change the number of deaths assigned to particular causes for a given age-sex group. These changes alter ranks across countries for any given year by a number of different causes, change time trends, and alter the rank order of causes within a country. By mapping CoD through different ICD versions and redistributing GCs, we believe the public health utility of CoD data can be substantially enhanced, leading to an increased demand for higher quality CoD data from health sector decision-makers.

Statistical modeling of volume of alcohol exposure for epidemiological studies of population health: the US example.

Abstract: Background: Alcohol consumption is a major risk factor in the global burden of disease, with overall volume of exposure as the principal underlying dimension. Two main sources of data on volume of alcohol exposure are available: surveys and per capita consumption derived from routine statistics such as taxation. As both sources have significant problems, this paper presents an approach that triangulates information from both sources into disaggregated estimates in line with the overall level of per capita consumption. Methods: A modeling approach was applied to the US using data from a large and representative survey, the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions. Different distributions (log-normal, gamma, Weibull) were used to model consumption among drinkers in subgroups defined by sex, age, and ethnicity. The gamma distribution was used to shift the fitted distributions in line with the overall volume as derived from per capita estimates. Implications for alcohol-attributable fractions were presented, using liver cirrhosis as an example. Results: The triangulation of survey data with aggregated per capita consumption data proved feasible and allowed for modeling of alcohol exposure disaggregated by sex, age, and ethnicity. These models can be used in combination with risk relations for burden of disease calculations. Sensitivity analyses showed that the gamma distribution chosen yielded very similar results in terms of fit and alcohol-attributable mortality as the other tested distributions. Conclusions: Modeling alcohol consumption via the gamma distribution was feasible. To further refine this approach, research should focus on the main assumptions underlying the approach to explore differences between volume estimates derived from surveys and per capita consumption figures.

Estimated causes of death in Thailand, 2005: implications for health policy.

Abstract: Background Almost 400,000 deaths are registered each year in Thailand. Their value for public health policy and planning is greatly diminished by incomplete registration of deaths and by concerns about the quality of cause-of-death information. This arises from misclassification of specified causes of death, particularly in hospitals, as well as from extensive use of ill-defined and vague codes to attribute the underlying cause of death. Detailed investigations of a sample of deaths in and out of hospital were carried out to identify misclassification of causes and thus derive a best estimate of national mortality patterns by age, sex, and cause of death.

The Summary Index of Malaria Surveillance (SIMS): a stable index of malaria within India

Abstract: Malaria in India has been difficult to measure. Mortality and morbidity are not comprehensively reported, impeding efforts to track changes in disease burden. However, a set of blood measures has been collected regularly by the National Malaria Control Program in most districts since 1958. Here, we use principal components analysis to combine these measures into a single index, the Summary Index of Malaria Surveillance (SIMS), and then test its temporal and geographic stability using subsets of the data. The SIMS correlates positively with all its individual components and with external measures of mortality and morbidity. It is highly consistent and stable over time (1995-2005) and regions of India. It includes measures of both vivax and falciparum malaria, with vivax dominant at lower transmission levels and falciparum dominant at higher transmission levels, perhaps due to ecological specialization of the species. This measure should provide a useful tool for researchers looking to summarize geographic or temporal trends in malaria in India, and can be readily applied by administrators with no mathematical or scientific background. We include a spreadsheet that allows simple calculation of the index for researchers and local administrators. Similar principles are likely applicable worldwide, though further validation is needed before using the SIMS outside India.

Interpersonal violence: an important risk factor for disease and injury in South Africa.

Abstract: Burden of disease estimates for South Africa have highlighted the particularly high rates of injuries related to interpersonal violence compared with other regions of the world, but these figures tell only part of the story. In addition to direct physical injury, violence survivors are at an increased risk of a wide range of psychological and behavioral problems. This study aimed to comprehensively quantify the excess disease burden attributable to exposure to interpersonal violence as a risk factor for disease and injury in South Africa. The World Health Organization framework of interpersonal violence was adapted. Physical injury mortality and disability were categorically attributed to interpersonal violence. In addition, exposure to child sexual abuse and intimate partner violence, subcategories of interpersonal violence, were treated as risk factors for disease and injury using counterfactual estimation and comparative risk assessment methods. Adjustments were made to account for the combined exposure state of having experienced both child sexual abuse and intimate partner violence. Of the 17 risk factors included in the South African Comparative Risk Assessment study, interpersonal violence was the second leading cause of healthy years of life lost, after unsafe sex, accounting for 1.7 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) or 10.5% of all DALYs (95% uncertainty interval: 8.5%-12.5%) in 2000. In women, intimate partner violence accounted for 50% and child sexual abuse for 32% of the total attributable DALYs. The implications of our findings are that estimates that include only the direct injury burden seriously underrepresent the full health impact of interpersonal violence. Violence is an important direct and indirect cause of health loss and should be recognized as a priority health problem as well as a human rights and social issue. This study highlights the difficulties in measuring the disease burden from interpersonal violence as a risk factor and the need to improve the epidemiological data on the prevalence and risks for the different forms of interpersonal violence to complete the picture. Given the extent of the burden, it is essential that innovative research be supported to identify social policy and other interventions that address both the individual and societal aspects of violence.

Verbal autopsy interpretation: A comparative analysis of the InterVA model versus physician review in determining causes of death in the Nairobi DSS

Abstract: Background: Developing countries generally lack complete vital registration systems that can produce cause of death information for health planning in their populations. As an alternative, verbal autopsy (VA) - the process of interviewing family members or caregivers on the circumstances leading to death - is often used by Demographic Surveillance Systems to generate cause of death data. Physician review (PR) is the most common method of interpreting VA, but this method is a time- and resource-intensive process and is liable to produce inconsistent results. The aim of this paper is to explore how a computer-based probabilistic model, InterVA, performs in comparison with PR in interpreting VA data in the Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System (NUHDSS). Methods: Between August 2002 and December 2008, a total of 1,823 VA interviews were reviewed by physicians in the NUHDSS. Data on these interviews were entered into the InterVA model for interpretation. Cause-specific mortality fractions were then derived from the cause of death data generated by the physicians and by the model. We then estimated the level of agreement between both methods using Kappa statistics. Results: The level of agreement between individual causes of death assigned by both methods was only 35% (κ = 0.27, 95% CI: 0.25 - 0.30). However, the patterns of mortality as determined by both methods showed a high burden of infectious diseases, including HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and pneumonia, in the study population. These mortality patterns are consistent with existing knowledge on the burden of disease in underdeveloped communities in Africa. Conclusions: The InterVA model showed promising results as a community-level tool for generating cause of death data from VAs. We recommend further refinement to the model, its adaptation to suit local contexts, and its continued validation with more extensive data from different settings.

Cause-specific mortality patterns among hospital deaths in Thailand: Validating routine death certification

Abstract: In Thailand, 35% of all deaths occur in hospitals, and the cause of death is medically certified by attending physicians. About 15% of hospital deaths are registered with nonspecific diagnoses, despite the potential for greater accuracy using information available from medical records. Further, issues arising from transcription of diagnoses from Thai to English at registration create uncertainty about the accuracy of registration data even for specified causes of death. This paper reports findings from a study to measure validity of registered diagnoses in a sample of deaths that occurred in hospitals in Thailand during 2005. A sample of 4,644 hospital deaths was selected, and for each case, medical records were reviewed. A process of medical record abstraction, expert physician review, and independent adjudication for the selection and coding of underlying causes of death was used to derive reference diagnoses. Validation characteristics were computed for leading causes of hospital deaths from registration data, and misclassification patterns were identified for registration diagnoses. Study findings were used to estimate cause-specific mortality patterns for hospital deaths in Thailand. Adequate medical records were available for 3,316 deaths in the study sample. Losses to follow up were nondifferential by age, sex, and cause. Medical records review identified specific underlying causes for the majority of deaths that were originally assigned ill-defined causes as well as for those originally assigned to residual categories for specific cause groups. In comparison with registration data for the sample, we found an increase in the relative proportion of deaths in hospitals due to stroke, ischemic heart disease, transport accidents, HIV/AIDS, diabetes, liver diseases, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Registration data on causes for deaths occurring in hospitals require periodic validation prior to their use for epidemiological research or public health policy. Procedures for death certification and coding of underlying causes of death need to be streamlined to improve reliability of registration data. Estimates of cause-specific mortality from this research will inform burden of disease estimation and guide interventions to reduce avoidable mortality in hospitals in Thailand.

Cause-of-death ascertainment for deaths that occur outside hospitals in Thailand: application of verbal autopsy methods

Abstract: Ascertainment of cause for deaths that occur in the absence of medical attention is a significant problem in many countries, including Thailand, where more than 50% of such deaths are registered with ill-defined causes. Routine implementation of standardized, rigorous verbal autopsy methods is a potential solution. This paper reports findings from field research conducted to develop, test, and validate the use of verbal autopsy (VA) methods in Thailand. International verbal autopsy methods were first adapted to the Thai context and then implemented to ascertain causes of death for a nationally representative sample of 11,984 deaths that occurred in Thailand in 2005. Causes of death were derived from completed VA questionnaires by physicians trained in ICD-based cause-of-death certification. VA diagnoses were validated in the sample of hospital deaths for which reference diagnoses were available from medical record review. Validated study findings were used to adjust VA-based causes of death derived for deaths in the study sample that had occurred outside hospitals. Results were used to estimate cause-specific mortality patterns for deaths outside hospitals in Thailand in 2005. VA-based causes of death were derived for 6,328 out of 7,340 deaths in the study sample that had occurred outside hospitals, constituting the verification arm of the study. The use of VA resulted in large-scale reassignment of deaths from ill-defined categories to specific causes of death. The validation study identified that VA tends to overdiagnose important causes such as diabetes, liver cancer, and tuberculosis, while undercounting deaths from HIV/AIDS, liver diseases, genitourinary (essential renal), and digestive system disorders. The use of standard VA methods adapted to Thailand enabled a plausible assessment of cause-specific mortality patterns and a substantial reduction of ill-defined diagnoses. Validation studies enhance the utility of findings from the application of verbal autopsy. Regular implementation of VA in Thailand could accelerate development of the quality and utility of vital registration data for deaths outside hospitals.

Verifying causes of death in Thailand: rationale and methods for empirical investigation

Abstract: Cause-specific mortality statistics by age and sex are primary evidence for epidemiological research and health policy. Annual mortality statistics from vital registration systems in Thailand are of limited utility because about 40% of deaths are registered with unknown or nonspecific causes. This paper reports the rationale, methods, and broad results from a comprehensive study to verify registered causes in Thailand. A nationally representative sample of 11,984 deaths was selected using a multistage stratified cluster sampling approach, distributed across 28 districts located in nine provinces of Thailand. Registered causes were verified through medical record review for deaths in hospitals and standard verbal autopsy procedures for deaths outside hospitals, the results of which were used to measure validity and reliability of registration data. Study findings were used to develop descriptive estimates of cause-specific mortality by age and sex in Thailand. Causes of death were verified for a total of 9,644 deaths in the study sample, comprised of 3,316 deaths in hospitals and 6,328 deaths outside hospitals. Field studies yielded specific diagnoses in almost all deaths in the sample originally assigned an ill-defined cause of death at registration. Study findings suggest that the leading causes of death in Thailand among males are stroke (9.4%); transport accidents (8.1%); HIV/AIDS (7.9%); ischemic heart diseases (6.4%); and chronic obstructive lung diseases (5.7%). Among females, the leading causes are stroke (11.3%); diabetes (8%); ischemic heart disease (7.5%); HIV/AIDS (5.7%); and renal diseases (4%). Empirical investigation of registered causes of death in the study sample yielded adequate information to enable estimation of cause-specific mortality patterns in Thailand. These findings will inform burden of disease estimation and economic evaluation of health policy choices in the country. The development and implementation of research methods in this study will contribute to improvements in the quality of annual mortality statistics in Thailand. Similar research is recommended for other countries where the quality of mortality statistics is poor.

A novel framework for validating and applying standardized small area measurement strategies

Abstract: Local measurements of health behaviors, diseases, and use of health services are critical inputs into local, state, and national decision-making. Small area measurement methods can deliver more precise and accurate local-level information than direct estimates from surveys or administrative records, where sample sizes are often too small to yield acceptable standard errors. However, small area measurement requires careful validation using approaches other than conventional statistical methods such as in-sample or cross-validation methods because they do not solve the problem of validating estimates in data-sparse domains. A new general framework for small area estimation and validation is developed and applied to estimate Type 2 diabetes prevalence in US counties using data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). The framework combines the three conventional approaches to small area measurement: (1) pooling data across time by combining multiple survey years; (2) exploiting spatial correlation by including a spatial component; and (3) utilizing structured relationships between the outcome variable and domain-specific covariates to define four increasingly complex model types - coined the Naive, Geospatial, Covariate, and Full models. The validation framework uses direct estimates of prevalence in large domains as the gold standard and compares model estimates against it using (i) all available observations for the large domains and (ii) systematically reduced sample sizes obtained through random sampling with replacement. At each sampling level, the model is rerun repeatedly, and the validity of the model estimates from the four model types is then determined by calculating the (average) concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) and (average) root mean squared error (RMSE) against the gold standard. The CCC is closely related to the intraclass correlation coefficient and can be used when the units are organized in groups and when it is of interest to measure the agreement between units in the same group (e.g., counties). The RMSE is often used to measure the differences between values predicted by a model or an estimator and the actually observed values. It is a useful measure to capture the precision of the model or estimator. All model types have substantially higher CCC and lower RMSE than the direct, single-year BRFSS estimates. In addition, the inclusion of relevant domain-specific covariates generally improves predictive validity, especially at small sample sizes, and their leverage can be equivalent to a five- to tenfold increase in sample size. Small area estimation of important health outcomes and risk factors can be improved using a systematic modeling and validation framework, which consistently outperformed single-year direct survey estimates and demonstrated the potential leverage of including relevant domain-specific covariates compared to pure measurement models. The proposed validation strategy can be applied to other disease outcomes and risk factors in the US as well as to resource-scarce situations, including low-income countries. These estimates are needed by public health officials to identify at-risk groups, to design targeted prevention and intervention programs, and to monitor and evaluate results over time.

Thermal discomfort with cold extremities in relation to age, gender, and body mass index in a random sample of a Swiss urban population

Abstract: Background The aim of this epidemiological study was to investigate the relationship of thermal discomfort with cold extremities (TDCE) to age, gender, and body mass index (BMI) in a Swiss urban population.

Using breath carbon monoxide to validate self-reported tobacco smoking in remote Australian Indigenous communities

Abstract: Background: This paper examines the specificity and sensitivity of a breath carbon monoxide (BCO) test and optimum BCO cutoff level for validating self-reported tobacco smoking in Indigenous Australians in Arnhem Land, Northern Territory (NT). Methods: In a sample of 400 people (≥16 years) interviewed about tobacco use in three communities, both selfreported smoking and BCO data were recorded for 309 study participants. Of these, 249 reported smoking tobacco within the preceding 24 hours, and 60 reported they had never smoked or had not smoked tobacco for ≥6 months. The sample was opportunistically recruited using quotas to reflect age and gender balances in the communities where the combined Indigenous populations comprised 1,104 males and 1,215 females (≥16 years). Local Indigenous research workers assisted researchers in interviewing participants and facilitating BCO tests using a portable hand-held analyzer. Results: A BCO cutoff of ≥7 parts per million (ppm) provided good agreement between self-report and BCO (96.0% sensitivity, 93.3% specificity). An alternative cutoff of ≥5 ppm increased sensitivity from 96.0% to 99.6% with no change in specificity (93.3%). With data for two self-reported nonsmokers who also reported that they smoked cannabis removed from the analysis, specificity increased to 96.6%. Conclusion: In these disadvantaged Indigenous populations, where data describing smoking are few, testing for BCO provides a practical, noninvasive, and immediate method to validate self-reported smoking. In further studies of tobacco smoking in these populations, cannabis use should be considered where self-reported nonsmokers show high BCO.

Deaths from heart failure: using coarsened exact matching to correct cause-of-death statistics

Abstract: Incomplete information on death certificates makes recorded cause-of-death data less useful for public health monitoring and planning. Certifying physicians sometimes list only the mode of death without indicating the underlying disease or diseases that led to the death. Inconsistent cause-of-death assignment among cardiovascular causes of death is of particular concern. This can prevent valid epidemiologic comparisons across countries and over time. We propose that coarsened exact matching be used to infer the underlying causes of death where only the mode of death is known. We focus on the case of heart failure in US, Mexican, and Brazilian death records. Redistribution algorithms derived using this method assign the largest proportion of heart failure deaths to ischemic heart disease in all three countries (53%, 26%, and 22% respectively), with larger proportions assigned to hypertensive heart disease and diabetes in Mexico and Brazil (16% and 23% vs. 7% for hypertensive heart disease, and 13% and 9% vs. 6% for diabetes). Reassigning these heart failure deaths increases the US ischemic heart disease mortality rate by 6%. The frequency with which physicians list heart failure in the causal chain for various underlying causes of death allows for inference about how physicians use heart failure on the death certificate in different settings. This easy-to-use method has the potential to reduce bias and increase comparability in cause-of-death data, thereby improving the public health utility of death records.

Schizophrenia in Thailand: prevalence and burden of disease

Abstract: A previous estimate of the burden of schizophrenia in Thailand relied on epidemiological estimates from elsewhere. The aim of this study is to estimate the prevalence and disease burden of schizophrenia in Thailand using local data sources that recently have become available. The prevalence of schizophrenia was estimated from a community mental health survey supplemented by a count of hospital admissions. Using data from recent meta-analyses of the risk of mortality and remission, we derived incidence and average duration using DisMod software. We used treated disability weights based on patient and clinician ratings from our own local survey of patients in contact with mental health services and applied methods from Australian Burden of Disease and cost-effectiveness studies. We applied untreated disability weights from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Uncertainty analysis was conducted using Monte Carlo simulation. The prevalence of schizophrenia at ages 15-59 in the Thai population was 8.8 per 1,000 (95% CI: 7.2, 10.6) with a male-to-female ratio of 1.1-to-1. The disability weights from local data were somewhat lower than the GBD weights. The disease burden in disability-adjusted life years was similar in men (70,000; 95% CI: 64,000, 77, 000) and women (75,000; 95% CI: 69,000, 83,000). The impact of using the lower Thai disability weights on the DALY estimates was small in comparison to the uncertainty in prevalence. Prevalence of schizophrenia was more critical to an accurate estimate of burden of disease in Thailand than variations in disability weights.

Designing verbal autopsy studies

Abstract: Background: Verbal autopsy analyses are widely used for estimating cause-specific mortality rates (CSMR) in the vast majority of the world without high-quality medical death registration. Verbal autopsies – survey interviews with the caretakers of imminent decedents – stand in for medical examinations or physical autopsies, which are infeasible or culturally prohibited. Methods and Findings: We introduce methods, simulations, and interpretations that can improve the design of automated, data-derived estimates of CSMRs, building on a new approach by King and Lu (2008). Our results generate advice for choosing symptom questions and sample sizes that is easier to satisfy than existing practices. For example, most prior effort has been devoted to searching for symptoms with high sensitivity and specificity, which has rarely if ever succeeded with multiple causes of death. In contrast, our approach makes this search irrelevant because it can produce unbiased estimates even with symptoms that have very low sensitivity and specificity. In addition, the new method is optimized for survey questions caretakers can easily answer rather than questions physicians would ask themselves. We also offer an automated method of weeding out biased symptom questions and advice on how to choose the number of causes of death, symptom questions to ask, and observations to collect, among others. Conclusions: With the advice offered here, researchers should be able to design verbal autopsy surveys and conduct analyses with greatly reduced statistical biases and research costs.

Comparing population health in the United States and Canada

Abstract: The objective of the paper is to compare population health in the United States (US) and Canada. Although the two countries are very similar in many ways, there are potentially important differences in the levels of social and economic inequality and the organization and financing of and access to health care in the two countries. Data are from the Joint Canada/United States Survey of Health 2002/03. The Health Utilities Index Mark 3 (HUI3) was used to measure overall health-related quality of life (HRQL). Mean HUI3 scores were compared, adjusting for major determinants of health, including body mass index, smoking, education, gender, race, and income. In addition, estimates of life expectancy were compared. Finally, mean HUI3 scores by age and gender and Canadian and US life tables were used to estimate health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE). Life expectancy in Canada is higher than in the US. For those < 40 years, there were no differences in HRQL between the US and Canada. For the 40+ group, HRQL appears to be higher in Canada. The results comparing the white-only population in both countries were very similar. For a 19-year-old, HALE was 52.0 years in Canada and 49.3 in the US. The population of Canada appears to be substantially healthier than the US population with respect to life expectancy, HRQL, and HALE. Factors that account for the difference may include access to health care over the full life span (universal health insurance) and lower levels of social and economic inequality, especially among the elderly.

Does the development of new medicinal products in the European Union address global and regional health concerns

Abstract: Since 1995, approval for many new medicinal products has been obtained through a centralized procedure in the European Union. In recent years, the use of summary measures of population health has become widespread. We investigated whether efforts to develop innovative medicines are focusing on the most relevant conditions from a global public health perspective. We reviewed the information on new medicinal products approved by centralized procedure from 1995 to 2009, information that is available to the public in the European Commission Register of medicinal products and the European Public Assessment Reports from the European Medicines Agency. Morbidity and mortality data were included for each disease group, according to the Global Burden of Disease project. We evaluated the association between authorized medicinal products and burden of disease measures based on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in the European Union and worldwide. We considered 520 marketing authorizations for medicinal products and 338 active ingredients. New authorizations were seen to increase over the period analyzed. There was a positive, high correlation between DALYs and new medicinal product development (ρ = 0.619, p = 0.005) in the European Union, and a moderate correlation for middle-low-income countries (ρ = 0.497, p = 0.030) and worldwide (ρ = 0.490, p = 0.033). The most neglected conditions at the European level (based on their attributable health losses) were neuropsychiatric diseases, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, sense organ conditions, and digestive diseases, while globally, they were perinatal conditions, respiratory infections, sense organ conditions, respiratory diseases, and digestive diseases. We find that the development of new medicinal products is higher for some diseases than others. Pharmaceutical industry leaders and policymakers are invited to consider the implications of this imbalance by establishing work plans that allow for the setting of future priorities from a public health perspective.

The burden of injuries in Iranian children in 2005

Abstract: Background: Child injury is recognized as a global health problem. Injuries caused the highest burden of disease among the total population of Iran in 2003. We aimed to estimate the morbidity, mortality, and disease burden caused by child injuries in the 0- to 14-year-old population of Iran in 2005. Methods: We estimated average age- and sex-specific mortality rates for different types of child injuries from 2001 to 2006 using Iran’s death registration data. Incidence rates for nonfatal outcomes of child injuries in 2005 were estimated through a time- and place-limited sample hospital registry study for injuries. We used the World Health Organization’s methods for estimation of years of life lost due to premature mortality and years lived with disability in 2005. Results: Injuries were the most important cause of death in children ages 1 to 14, with 35, 33.4, 24.9, and 22.9 deaths per 100,000 in the 0-14, 1-4, 5-9, and 10-14 age groups respectively. Road transport injuries were responsible for the highest death rate per 100,000 population among all types of injuries in children, with 15.5 for ages 0-14, 16.1 for ages 1-4, 16.3 for ages 5-9, and 13.1 for ages 10-14. Incidence rates of injuries leading to hospitalization were 459, 530, and 439 per 100,000 in the 0-14, 1-4, and 5-14 age groups respectively. Incidence rates of injuries leading to outpatient care were 1,812, 2,390, and 1,650 per 100,000 in the same age groups respectively. Among injury types, falls and burns had the highest hospitalization and outpatient care incidence rates. Conclusions: Injuries, particularly road transport injuries, were the most important health problem of children in Iran in 2003 and 2005. Strong social policy is needed to ensure child survival.

Trends and inequalities in short-term acute myocardial infarction case fatality in Scotland, 1988-2004.

Abstract: Background: There have been substantial declines in ischemic heart disease in Scotland, partly due to decreases in acute myocardial infarction (AMI) incidence and case fatality (CF). Despite this, Scotland’s IHD mortality rates are among the worst in Europe. We examine trends in socioeconomic inequalities in short-term CF after a first AMI event and their associations with age, sex, and geography.

Psychosocial stress and strategies for managing adversity: measuring population resilience in New South Wales, Australia

Abstract: Background: Populations around the world are facing an increasing number of adversities such as the global financial crisis, terrorism, conflict, and climate change. The aim of this paper was to investigate self-reported strategies and sources of support used to get through “tough times” in an Australian context and to identify patterns of response in the general population and differences in potentially vulnerable subgroups. Methods: Data were collected through a cross-sectional survey of the New South Wales population in Australia. The final sample consisted of 3,995 New South Wales residents aged 16 years and above who responded to the question: “What are the things that get you through tough times?” Results: Respondents provided brief comments that were coded into 14 main subject-area categories. The most frequently reported responses were family and self (52%); friends and neighbors (21%); use of positive emotional and philosophical strategies (17%), such as sense of humor, determination, and the belief that things would get better; and religious beliefs (11%). The responses of four population subgroups were compared, based on gender, household income, level of psychological distress, and whether a language other than English was spoken at home. Women reported greater use of friends and neighbors and religious or spiritual beliefs for support, whereas men reported greater use of drinking/smoking and financial supports. Those with lower incomes reported greater reliance on positive emotional and philosophical strategies and on religious or spiritual beliefs. Those with high levels of psychological distress reported greater use of leisure interests and hobbies, drinking/smoking, and less use of positive lifestyle strategies, such as adequate sleep, relaxation, or work/life balance. Those who spoke a language other than English at home were less likely to report relying on self or others (family/friends) or positive emotional and philosophical strategies to get through tough times.

The effect of participant nonresponse on HIV prevalence estimates in a population-based survey in two informal settlements in Nairobi city

Abstract: Background: Participant nonresponse in an HIV serosurvey can affect estimates of HIV prevalence. Nonresponse can arise from a participant’s refusal to provide a blood sample or the failure to trace a sampled individual. In a serosurvey conducted by the African Population and Health Research Center and Kenya Medical Research Centre in the slums of Nairobi, 43% of sampled individuals did not provide a blood sample. This paper describes selective participation in the serosurvey and estimates bias in HIV prevalence figures. Methods: The paper uses data derived from an HIV serosurvey nested in an on-going demographic surveillance system. Nonresponse was assessed using logistic regression and multiple imputation methods to impute missing data for HIV status using a set of common variables available for all sampled participants. Results: Age, residence, high mobility, wealth, and ethnicity were independent predictors of a sampled individual not being contacted. Individuals aged 30-34 years, females, individuals from the Kikuyu and Kamba ethnicity, married participants, and residents of Viwandani were all less likely to accept HIV testing when contacted. Although men were less likely to be contacted, those found were more willing to be tested compared to females. The overall observed HIV prevalence was overestimated by 2%. The observed prevalence for male participants was underestimated by about 1% and that for females was overestimated by 3%. These differences were small and did not affect the overall estimate substantially as the observed estimates fell within the confidence limits of the corrected prevalence estimate. Conclusions: Nonresponse in the HIV serosurvey in the two informal settlements was high, however, the effect on overall prevalence estimate was minimal.

Correlating pharmaceutical data with a national health survey as a proxy for estimating rural population health

Abstract: Chronic disease accounts for nearly three-quarters of US deaths, yet prevalence rates are not consistently reported at the state level and are not available at the sub-state level. This makes it difficult to assess trends in prevalence and impossible to measure sub-state differences. Such county-level differences could inform and direct the delivery of health services to those with the greatest need. We used a database of prescription drugs filled in the US as a proxy for nationwide, county-level prevalence of three top causes of death: heart disease, stroke, and diabetes. We tested whether prescription data are statistically valid proxy measures for prevalence, using the correlation between prescriptions filled at the state level and comparable Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) data. We further tested for statistically significant national geographic patterns. Fourteen correlations were tested for years in which the BRFSS questions were asked (1999-2003), and all were statistically significant. The correlations at the state level ranged from a low of 0.41 (stroke, 1999) to a high of 0.73 (heart disease, 2003). We also mapped self-reported chronic illnesses along with prescription rates associated with those illnesses. County prescription drug rates were shown to be valid measures of sub-state estimates of diagnosed prevalence and could be used to target health resources to counties in need. This methodology could be particularly helpful to rural areas whose prevalence rates cannot be estimated using national surveys. While there are no spatial statistically significant patterns nationally, there are significant variations within states that suggest unmet health needs.

Socioeconomic disparities in self-reported cardiovascular disease for Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australian adults: analysis of national survey data

Abstract: Little is known about the relationship between socioeconomic status (SES) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) among Indigenous Australians, or whether any such relationship is similar to that in non-Indigenous Australians. Weighted data on self-reported CVD and several SES measures were analyzed for 5,417 Indigenous and 15,432 non-Indigenous adults aged 18-64 years from two nationally representative surveys conducted in parallel by the Australian Bureau of Statistics in 2004-05. After adjusting for age and sex, self-reported CVD prevalence was generally higher among those of lower SES in both the Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations. The relative odds of self-reported CVD were generally similar in the two populations. For example, the relative odds of self-reported CVD for those who did not complete Year 10 (versus those who did) was 1.4 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.1-1.8) among Indigenous people and 1.3 (95% CI: 1.2-1.5) among non-Indigenous people. However, Indigenous people generally had higher self-reported CVD levels than non-Indigenous people of the same age and SES group. Although smoking history varied by SES, smoking did not explain the observed relationships between SES and self-reported CVD. Socioeconomic disparities in self-reported CVD among Indigenous Australians appear similar in relative terms to those seen in non-Indigenous Australians, but absolute differences remain. As with other population groups, the socioeconomic heterogeneity of the Indigenous population must be considered in developing and implementing programs to promote health and prevent illness. In addition, factors that operate across the SES spectrum, such as racism, stress, dispossession, and grief, must also be addressed to reduce the burden of CVD.

A set of indicators for decomposing the secular increase of life expectancy

Abstract: The ongoing increase in life expectancy in developed countries is associated with changes in the shape of the survival curve. These changes can be characterized by two main, distinct components: (i) the decline in premature mortality, i.e., the concentration of deaths around some high value of the mean age at death, also termed rectangularization of the survival curve; and (ii) the increase of this mean age at death, i.e., longevity, which directly reflects the reduction of mortality at advanced ages. Several recent observations suggest that both mechanisms are simultaneously taking place. We propose a set of indicators aiming to quantify, disentangle, and compare the respective contribution of rectangularization and longevity increase to the secular increase of life expectancy. These indicators, based on a nonparametric approach, are easy to implement. We illustrate the method with the evolution of the Swiss mortality data between 1876 and 2006. Using our approach, we are able to say that the increase in longevity and rectangularization explain each about 50% of the secular increase of life expectancy. Our method may provide a useful tool to assess whether the contribution of rectangularization to the secular increase of life expectancy will remain around 50% or whether it will be increasing in the next few years, and thus whether concentration of mortality will eventually take place against some ultimate biological limit.

Measuring the health of the Indian elderly: evidence from National Sample Survey data

Abstract: Background: Comparable health measures across different sets of populations are essential for describing the distribution of health outcomes and assessing the impact of interventions on these outcomes. Self-reported health (SRH) is a commonly used indicator of health in household surveys and has been shown to be predictive of future mortality. However, the susceptibility of SRH to influence by individuals’ expectations complicates its interpretation and undermines its usefulness. Methods: This paper applies the empirical methodology of Lindeboom and van Doorslaer (2004) to investigate elderly health in India using data from the 52 nd round of the National Sample Survey conducted in 1995-96 that includes both an SRH variable as well as a range of objective indicators of disability and ill health. The empirical testing was conducted on stratified homogeneous groups, based on four factors: gender, education, rural-urban residence, and region. Results: We find that region generally has a significant impact on how women perceive their health. Reporting heterogeneity can arise not only from cut-point shifts, but also from differences in health effects by objective health measures. In contrast, we find little evidence of reporting heterogeneity due to differences in gender or educational status within regions. Rural-urban residence does matter in some cases. The findings are robust with different specifications of objective health indicators. Conclusions: Our exercise supports the thesis that the region of residence is associated with different cut-points and reporting behavior on health surveys. We believe this is the first paper that applies the Lindeboom-van Doorslaer methodology to data on the elderly in a developing country, showing the feasibility of applying this methodology to data from many existing cross-sectional health surveys.

Early mortality experience in a large military cohort and a comparison of mortality data sources.

Abstract: Complete and accurate ascertainment of mortality is critically important in any longitudinal study. Tracking of mortality is particularly essential among US military members because of unique occupational exposures (e.g., worldwide deployments as well as combat experiences). Our study objectives were to describe the early mortality experience of Panel 1 of the Millennium Cohort, consisting of participants in a 21-year prospective study of US military service members, and to assess data sources used to ascertain mortality. A population-based random sample (n = 256,400) of all US military service members on service rosters as of October 1, 2000, was selected for study recruitment. Among this original sample, 214,388 had valid mailing addresses, were not in the pilot study, and comprised the group referred to in this study as the invited sample. Panel 1 participants were enrolled from 2001 to 2003, represented all armed service branches, and included active-duty, Reserve, and National Guard members. Crude death rates, as well as age- and sex-adjusted overall and age-adjusted, category-specific death rates were calculated and compared for participants (n = 77,047) and non-participants (n = 137,341) based on data from the Social Security Administration Death Master File, Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) files, and the Department of Defense Medical Mortality Registry, 2001-2006. Numbers of deaths identified by these three data sources, as well as the National Death Index, were compared for 2001-2004. There were 341 deaths among the participants for a crude death rate of 80.7 per 100,000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI]: 72.2,89.3) compared to 820 deaths and a crude death rate of 113.2 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI: 105.4, 120.9) for non-participants. Age-adjusted, category-specific death rates highlighted consistently higher rates among study non-participants. Although there were advantages and disadvantages for each data source, the VA mortality files identified the largest number of deaths (97%). The difference in crude and adjusted death rates between Panel 1 participants and non-participants may reflect healthier segments of the military having the opportunity and choosing to participate. In our study population, mortality information was best captured using multiple data sources.

Consistency and precision of cancer reporting in a multiwave national panel survey

Abstract: Many epidemiological studies rely on self-reported information, the accuracy of which is critical for unbiased estimates of population health. Previously, accuracy has been analyzed by comparing self-reports to other sources, such as cancer registries. Cancer is believed to be a well-reported condition. This paper uses novel panel data to test the consistency of cancer reports for respondents with repeated self-reports. Data come from 978 adults who reported having been diagnosed with cancer in at least one of four waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, 1999-2005. Consistency of cancer occurrence reports and precision of timing of onset were studied as a function of individual and cancer-related characteristics using logistic and ordered logistic models. Almost 30% of respondents gave inconsistent cancer reports, meaning they said they never had cancer after having said they did have cancer in a previous interview; 50% reported the year of diagnosis with a discrepancy of two or more years. More recent cancers were reported with a higher consistency and timing precision; cervical cancer was reported more inaccurately than other cancer types. Demographic and socio-economic factors were only weak predictors of reporting quality. Results suggest that retrospective reports of cancer contain significant measurement error. The errors, however, are fairly random across different social groups, meaning that the results based on the data are not systematically biased by socio-economic factors. Even for health events as salient as cancer, researchers should exercise caution about the presumed accuracy of self-reports, especially if the timing of diagnosis is an important covariate.

A comparison of physicians and medical assistants in interpreting verbal autopsy interviews for allocating cause of neonatal death in Matlab, Bangladesh: can medical assistants be considered an alternative to physicians?

Abstract: Objective This study assessed the agreement between medical physicians in their interpretation of verbal autopsy (VA) interview data for identifying causes of neonatal deaths in rural Bangladesh.

Analysis of five-year trends in self-reported language preference and issues of item non-response among Hispanic persons in a large cross-sectional health survey: implications for the measurement of an ethnic minority population

Abstract: Significant differences in health outcomes have been documented among Hispanic persons, the fastest-growing demographic segment of the United States. The objective of this study was to examine trends in population growth and the collection of health data among Hispanic persons, including issues of language preference and survey completion using a national health survey to highlight issues of measurement of an increasingly important demographic segment of the United States. Data from the 2003-2007 United States Census and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System were used to compare trends in population growth and survey sample size as well as differences in survey response based on language preference among a Hispanic population. Percentages of item non-response on selected survey questions were compared for Hispanic respondents choosing to complete the survey in Spanish and those choosing to complete the survey in English. The mean number of attempts to complete the survey was also compared based on language preference among Hispanic respondents. The sample size of Hispanic persons in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System saw little growth compared to the actual growth of the Hispanic population in the United States. Significant differences in survey item non-response for nine of 15 survey questions were seen based on language preference. Hispanic respondents choosing to complete the survey in Spanish had a significantly fewer number of call attempts for survey completion compared to their Hispanic counterparts choosing to communicate in English. Including additional measures of acculturation and increasing the sample size of Hispanic persons in a national health survey such as the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System may result in more precise findings that could be used to better target prevention and health care needs for an ethnic minority population.