Application of Principal Component Regression with Dummy Variable in Statistical Downscaling to Forecast Rainfall
TLDR
In this paper, the authors used principal component regression (PCR) to determine the time lag of GCM data and build statistical downscaling model using PCR method with time lag.Abstract:
Statistical downscaling (SD) analyzes relationship between local-scale response and global-scale predictors. The SD model can be used to forecast rainfall (local-scale) using global-scale precipitation from global circulation model output (GCM). The objectives of this research were to determine the time lag of GCM data and build SD model using PCR method with time lag of the GCM precipitation data. The observations of rainfall data in Indramayu were taken from 1979 to 2007 showing similar patterns with GCM data on 1st grid to 64th grid after time shift (time lag). The time lag was determined using the cross-correlation function. However, GCM data of 64 grids showed multicollinearity problem. This problem was solved by principal component regression (PCR), but the PCR model resulted heterogeneous errors. PCR model was modified to overcome the errors with adding dummy variables to the model. Dummy variables were determined based on partial least squares regression (PLSR). The PCR model with dummy variables improved the rainfall prediction. The SD model with lag-GCM predictors was also better than SD model without lag-GCM.read more
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References
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Book
Principal Component Analysis
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a graphical representation of data using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for time series and other non-independent data, as well as a generalization and adaptation of principal component analysis.
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Principal Component Analysis
TL;DR: Principal component analysis (PCA) as discussed by the authors replaces the p original variables by a smaller number, q, of derived variables, the principal components, which are linear combinations of the original variables.
Journal ArticleDOI
PLS-regression: a basic tool of chemometrics
TL;DR: PLS-regression (PLSR) as mentioned in this paper is the PLS approach in its simplest, and in chemistry and technology, most used form (two-block predictive PLS) is a method for relating two data matrices, X and Y, by a linear multivariate model.
Journal ArticleDOI
Performance of statistical downscaling models in GCM validation and regional climate change estimates: application for Swedish precipitation
TL;DR: In this paper, an analysis of the performance of a general circulation model (GCM) (HadCM2) in reproducing the large-scale circulation mechanisms controlling Swedish precipitation variability, and in estimating regional climate changes owing to increased CO2 concentration by using canonical correlation analysis (CCA).