Journal ArticleDOI
Are traditional forecasting models suitable for hotels in Italian cities
Andrea Ellero,Paola Pellegrini +1 more
TLDR
In this article, the authors assess the performance of different widely-adopted models to forecast Italian hotel occupancy using historical data on occupancy in five Italian hotels, divided into a training set and a test set.Abstract:
Purpose – The aim of this paper is to assess the performance of different widely-adopted models to forecast Italian hotel occupancy. In particular, the paper tests the different models for forecasting the demand in hotels located in urban areas, which typically experience both business and leisure demand, and whose demand is often affected by the presence of special events in the hotels themselves, or in their neighborhood. Design/methodology/approach – Several forecasting models that the literature reports as most suitable for hotel room occupancy data were selected. Historical data on occupancy in five Italian hotels were divided into a training set and a test set. The parameters of the models were trained and fine-tuned on the training data, obtaining one specific set for each of the five Italian hotels considered. For each hotel, each method, with corresponding best parameter choice, is used to forecast room occupancy in the test set. Findings – In the particular Italian market, models based on bookin...read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
New developments in tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting
TL;DR: In this paper, a review of tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting is presented, with a view to identifying emerging topics and methods studied and to pointing future research directions in the field.
Journal ArticleDOI
Performance measurement in tourism firms: A content analytical meta-approach
TL;DR: In this paper, a meta-analysis of tourism performance measurement by synthesizing tourism and hospitality research is presented to overview three important dimensions of the tourism performance measuring literature (unit of analysis, approaches and disciplines).
Journal ArticleDOI
Present and future hotel website marketing activities: change propensity analysis.
Xu Li,Youcheng Wang,Yixiu Yu +2 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined and predicted website marketing activities of US hotels and found that current website exploitation by the US hotels is relatively limited, with a focus on information dissemination and suggested that a number of transaction and relation-building activities will emerge in the near future.
Journal ArticleDOI
Improving daily occupancy forecasting accuracy for hotels based on EEMD-ARIMA model:
TL;DR: Result shows that this novel method, EEMD-ARIMA, can improve forecasting accuracy compared to the popular ARIMA method, especially for short-term forecasting.
Journal ArticleDOI
Reservation Forecasting Models for Hospitality SMEs with a View to Enhance Their Economic Sustainability
Anna Maria Fiori,Ilaria Foroni +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, a demand forecasting approach adapted to specific features that characterize reservation data for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the hospitality sector is proposed, which integrates historical and advanced booking methods into a forecast combination with time-varying, performance-based weights.
References
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors present the economics of RM, including single-resource capacity control, network capacity control and overbooking, as well as dynamic pricing and auctioning.
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Predicting the Present with Google Trends
Hyunyoung Choi,Hal R. Varian +1 more
TL;DR: This paper used search engine data to forecast near-term values of economic indicators, such as automobile sales, unemployment claims, travel destination planning, and consumer confidence, and showed how to use this information to forecast future economic indicators.
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Predicting the Present with Google Trends
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used Google Trends and Google Insights for Search data to predict economic activity, including automobile sales, home sales, retail sales, and travel behavior, and found that Google Trends data can help improve forecasts of the current level of activity for a number of different economic time series.
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The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications
Spyros Makridakis,Michèle Hibon +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the M3-Competition, the latest edition of the M-Competitions, is described and its results and conclusions are compared with those of the previous two M-competitions as well as with other major empirical studies.
Journal ArticleDOI
The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition
Spyros Makridakis,A. Andersen,A. Andersen,R. Carbone,Robert Fildes,Robert Fildes,Michèle Hibon,R. Lewandowski,J. Newton,E. Parzen,Robert L. Winkler +10 more
TL;DR: The results of a forecasting competition are presented to provide empirical evidence about differences found to exist among the various extrapolative (time series) methods used in the competition.