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Journal ArticleDOI

Dynamic Jump Intensities and Risk Premia: Evidence from S&P500 Returns and Options

TLDR
In this paper, a new class of discrete time models where the distribution of daily returns is driven by two factors: dynamic volatility and dynamic jump intensity has its own risk premium is proposed.
Abstract
We build a new class of discrete time models where the distribution of daily returns is driven by two factors: dynamic volatility and dynamic jump intensity. Each factor has its own risk premium. The likelihood function for the models is available using analytical filtering, which makes them much easier to implement than most existing models. Estimating the models on S&P500 returns, we find that they significantly outperform standard models without jumps. We find very strong empirical support for time-varying jump intensities, and thus for flexible skewness and kurtosis dynamics. Compared to the risk premium on dynamic volatility, the risk premium on the dynamic jump intensity has a much larger impact on option prices. We confirm these findings using joint estimation on returns and large option samples, which is feasible in our class of models.

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Posted Content

Tail Risk Premia and Return Predictability

TL;DR: This paper showed that the variance risk premium, defined as the difference between actual and risk-neutralized expectations of the forward aggregate market variation, helps predict future market returns, and that much of this predictability may be attributed to time variation in the shape of the tails and compensation demanded by investors for bearing jump tail risk.
Posted Content

The Risk Premia Embedded in Index Options

TL;DR: This paper study the relationship between market risks and risk premia using time series of index option surfaces and find that priced left tail risk cannot be spanned by market volatility and introduce a new tail factor.
Journal ArticleDOI

Realizing Smiles: Options Pricing with Realized Volatility

TL;DR: In this paper, a discrete-time stochastic volatility option pricing model is developed, which exploits the information contained in high-frequency data, and the Realized Volatility (RV) is used as a proxy of the unobservable log-returns volatility.
Journal ArticleDOI

Lévy Jump Risk: Evidence from Options and Returns

TL;DR: This article found that the risk premium implied by infinite-activity jumps contributes to more than half of the total equity premium and dominates that of the Brownian increments suggesting that it is more representative of the risks present in the economy.
Journal ArticleDOI

Time-Varying Jump Tails

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors developed new methods for the estimation of time-varying risk-neutral jump tails in asset returns, which explicitly allows the parameters characterizing the shape of the right and the left tails to differ, and importantly for the tail shape parameters to change over time.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI

The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities

TL;DR: In this paper, a theoretical valuation formula for options is derived, based on the assumption that options are correctly priced in the market and it should not be possible to make sure profits by creating portfolios of long and short positions in options and their underlying stocks.
Journal ArticleDOI

Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous

TL;DR: In this article, an option pricing formula was derived for the more general case when the underlying stock returns are generated by a mixture of both continuous and jump processes, and the derived formula has most of the attractive features of the original Black-Scholes formula.
Journal ArticleDOI

Empirical Performance of Alternative Option Pricing Models

TL;DR: In this article, an option pricing model that allows volatility, interest rates and jumps to be stochastic is presented. But it is not known whether and by how much each generalization improves option pricing and hedging.
Journal ArticleDOI

Conditional Skewness in Asset Pricing Tests

TL;DR: In this article, the authors formalize this intuition with an asset pricing model that incorporates conditional skewness and show that the low expected return momentum portfolios have higher skewnness than high expected return portfolios.
Journal ArticleDOI

The jump-risk premia implicit in options: evidence from an integrated time-series study $

TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the joint time series of the S&P 500 index and near-the-money short-dated option prices with an arbitrage-free model, capturing both stochastic volatility and jumps.
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