Journal ArticleDOI
Evolving foresight in a small transition economy
TLDR
The first Technology Foresight Programme (TEP) as mentioned in this paper was a foresight program for transition countries, which was based on panel activities and a large-scale Delphi survey with a strong emphasis on socio-economic needs.Abstract:
Hungary launched its first Technology Foresight Programme (TEP) in 1997. This was a holistic foresight programme, based on panel activities and a large-scale Delphi survey, with a strong emphasis on socio-economic needs. The paper discusses why a foresight exercise is relevant to a transition country, then describes what was done (organization, methods and results), and how the process evolved in Hungary. Policy conclusions, methodological lessons and questions for further research are also offered. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Mapping knowledge structure by keyword co-occurrence: a first look at journal papers in Technology Foresight
TL;DR: The quantitative method provided in this paper shows a possible way of visualizing and evaluating knowledge structure; thus a computerized calculation is possible for potential quantitative applications, e.g. R&D resource allocation, research performance evaluation, science map, etc.
Journal ArticleDOI
From forecasting to foresight processes—new participative foresight activities in Germany
Abstract: The definitions of forecasting vary to a certain extent, but they all have the view into the future in common. The future is unknown, but the broad, general directions can be guessed at and reasonably dealt with. Foresight goes further than forecasting, including aspects of networking and the preparation of decisions concerning the future. This is one reason why, in the 1990s, when foresight focused attention on a national scale in many countries, the wording also changed from forecasting to foresight. Foresight not only looks into the future by using all instruments of futures research, but includes utilizing implementations for the present. What does a result of a futures study mean for the present? Foresight is not planning, but foresight results provide ‘information’ about the future and are therefore one step in the planning and preparation of decisions. In this paper, some of the differences are described in a straightforward manner and demonstrated in the light of the German foresight process ‘Futur’. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Journal ArticleDOI
Navigating foresight in a sea of expectations: lessons from the sociology of expectations
TL;DR: The phenomenon that socio-technical developments are saturated with formal and informal anticipations is investigated and the implications of this condition for foresight are discussed.
Journal ArticleDOI
Evaluation of national foresight activities: Assessing rationale, process and impact
Luke Georghiou,Michael Keenan +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors address the question of what constitutes an appropriate evaluation strategy for national foresight activities in different situations and explore a variety of rationales for foresight, ranging from a desire to set priorities through to participation-oriented goals and building new networks around common visions and strategies.
References
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Book
The economics of industrial innovation
TL;DR: In this article, the authors introduce evolutionary theory in economics and technical change process innovations process innovations materials innovations product and system innovation paradigm change, the role of marketing and user-producer networks innovation, size of firm, economies of scale and scope uncertainty, project evaluation and finance of innovation, management strategy and theory of the firm.
Journal ArticleDOI
Appropriating the Returns from Industrial Research and Development
Richard C. Levin,Alvin K. Klevorick,Richard R. Nelson,Sidney G. Winter,Richard Gilbert,Zvi Griliches +5 more
TL;DR: A patent confers, in theory, perfect appropriability (monopoly of the invention) for a limited time in return for a public benefit as mentioned in this paper, however, the benefits consumers derive from an innovation, however, are increased if competitors can imitate and improve on the innovation to ensure its availability on favorable terms.
Journal ArticleDOI
The ‘National System of Innovation’ in historical perspective
TL;DR: The first person to use the expression "national system of innovation" was Bengt-Ake Lundvall and he is also the editor of a highly original and thought-provoking book as mentioned in this paper.
Journal ArticleDOI
The economics of technical change
TL;DR: A review of the recent rapidly growing literature on technical change in the economy can be found in this article, where the authors argue that the extensive empirical evidence and theoretical analysis now available presents a basic challenge to neoclassical theory and advocate an experiment with a new form of assessment by neighboring disciplines to economics itself.
Journal ArticleDOI
Transformational Recession: The Main Causes
TL;DR: In this article, the authors discuss the common features of these recessions, using the Hungarian economy as an example, and conclude that the most important factor here is the dwindling propensity to invest.
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Technology foresight for wiring up the national innovation system: experiences in Britain, Australia and New Zealand
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Evaluation of national foresight activities: Assessing rationale, process and impact
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