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Lifetime Risk for Diabetes Mellitus in the United States

TLDR
For individuals born in the United States in 2000, the lifetime probability of being diagnosed with diabetes mellitus is substantial and primary prevention of diabetes and its complications are important public health priorities.
Abstract
ContextAlthough diabetes mellitus is one of the most prevalent and costly chronic diseases in the United States, no estimates have been published of individuals' average lifetime risk of developing diabetes.ObjectiveTo estimate age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific lifetime risk of diabetes in the cohort born in 2000 in the United States.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsData from the National Health Interview Survey (1984-2000) were used to estimate age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific prevalence and incidence in 2000. US Census Bureau data and data from a previous study of diabetes as a cause of death were used to estimate age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific mortality rates for diabetic and nondiabetic populations.Main Outcome MeasuresResidual (remaining) lifetime risk of diabetes (from birth to 80 years in 1-year intervals), duration with diabetes, and life-years and quality-adjusted life-years lost from diabetes.ResultsThe estimated lifetime risk of developing diabetes for individuals born in 2000 is 32.8% for males and 38.5% for females. Females have higher residual lifetime risks at all ages. The highest estimated lifetime risk for diabetes is among Hispanics (males, 45.4% and females, 52.5%). Individuals diagnosed as having diabetes have large reductions in life expectancy. For example, we estimate that if an individual is diagnosed at age 40 years, men will lose 11.6 life-years and 18.6 quality-adjusted life-years and women will lose 14.3 life-years and 22.0 quality-adjusted life-years.ConclusionsFor individuals born in the United States in 2000, the lifetime probability of being diagnosed with diabetes mellitus is substantial. Primary prevention of diabetes and its complications are important public health priorities.

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Lack of exercise is a major cause of chronic diseases

TL;DR: Physical inactivity is a primary cause of most chronic diseases as discussed by the authors, and the body rapidly maladapts to insufficient physical activity, and if continued, results in substantial decreases in both total and quality years of life.
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Exercise and type 2 diabetes: the American College of Sports Medicine and the American Diabetes Association: joint position statement.

TL;DR: The benefits of physical training are discussed, along with recommendations for varying activities, PA-associated blood glucose management, diabetes prevention, gestational diabetes mellitus, and safe and effective practices for PA with diabetes-related complications.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI

Estimating the Dimension of a Model

TL;DR: In this paper, the problem of selecting one of a number of models of different dimensions is treated by finding its Bayes solution, and evaluating the leading terms of its asymptotic expansion.

Estimating the dimension of a model

TL;DR: In this paper, the problem of selecting one of a number of models of different dimensions is treated by finding its Bayes solution, and evaluating the leading terms of its asymptotic expansion.
Journal ArticleDOI

Reduction in the incidence of type 2 diabetes with lifestyle intervention or metformin.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compared a lifestyle intervention with metformin to prevent or delay the development of Type 2 diabetes in nondiabetic individuals. And they found that the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than the medication.
Journal ArticleDOI

Prevalence and Trends in Obesity Among US Adults, 1999-2000

TL;DR: The increases in the prevalences of obesity and overweight previously observed continued in 1999-2000, and increases occurred for both men and women in all age groups and for non-Hispanic whites, non- Hispanic blacks, and Mexican Americans.
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A note on a general definition of the coefficient of determination

TL;DR: In this article, a generalization of the coefficient of determination R2 to general regression models is discussed, and a modification of an earlier definition to allow for discrete models is proposed.
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