Predicting the strength of solar cycle 24 using a flux-transport dynamo-based tool
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In this paper, a solar cycle strength prediction tool was constructed by modifying a calibrated flux-transport dynamo model, and made predictions of the amplitude of upcoming solar cycle 24.Abstract:
[1] We construct a solar cycle strength prediction tool by modifying a calibrated flux-transport dynamo model, and make predictions of the amplitude of upcoming solar cycle 24. We predict that cycle 24 will have a 30–50% higher peak than cycle 23, in contrast to recent predictions by Svalgaard et al. and Schatten, who used a precursor method to forecast that cycle 24 will be considerably smaller than 23. The skill of our approach is supported by the flux transport dynamo model's ability to correctly 'forecast' the relative peaks of cycles 16–23 using sunspot area data from previous cycles.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
The Solar Cycle
TL;DR: An examination of prediction techniques for the solar cycle is examined and a closer look at cycles 23 and 24 is taken.
Journal ArticleDOI
Dynamo Models of the Solar Cycle
TL;DR: In this paper, a series of increasingly complex dynamo models are constructed, with the primary aim of reproducing the various basic observed characteristics of the solar magnetic activity cycle, and global and local magnetohydrodynamcial simulations of solar convection, and dynamo action therein, are also considered.
Journal ArticleDOI
Solar Dynamo Theory
TL;DR: A review on solar dynamo theory is structured around three areas in recent years: (a) global magnetohydrodynamical simulations of convection and magnetic cycles, (b) the turbulent electromotive force and the dynamo saturation problem, and (c) flux transport dynamos, and their application to model cycle fluctuations as mentioned in this paper.
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Variations in the Sun’s Meridional Flow over a Solar Cycle
David H. Hathaway,Lisa Rightmire +1 more
TL;DR: The meridional flow speed of magnetic features on the Sun is determined using data from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and was faster at sunspot cycle minimum than at maximum and substantially faster on the approach to the current minimum than it was at the last solar minimum.
Journal ArticleDOI
Simulating and Predicting Solar Cycles Using a Flux-Transport Dynamo
Mausumi Dikpati,Peter A. Gilman +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, a predictive tool based on a Babcock-Leighton-type flux-transport dynamo model of a solar cycle, run the model by updating the surface magnetic source using old cycles' data since cycle 12, and show that the model can correctly simulate the relative peaks of cycles 16-23.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
A Babcock-Leighton Flux Transport Dynamo with Solar-like Differential Rotation
Mausumi Dikpati,P. Charbonneau +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigate the properties of a kinematic -ux transport solar dynamo model, which is characterised by a solar-like internal diUerential rotation, a single-cell meridional -ow in the convective envelope that is directed poleward at the surface, and a magnetic diUusivity that is constant within the envelope but decreases sharply at the core-envelope interface.
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Sunspot cycle 24 : Smallest cycle in 100 years?
TL;DR: Using direct polar field measurements, now available for four solar cycles, the approaching solar cycle 24 (approx. 2011 maximum) will have a peak smoothed monthly sunspot number of 75 +/- 8, making it potentially the smallest cycle in the last 100 years as discussed by the authors.
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Using Dynamo Theory to predict the sunspot number during Solar Cycle 21
TL;DR: In this article, four methods of estimating the sun's polar magnetic field strength near solar minimum are employed to provide an estimate of cycle 21's yearly mean sunspot number at solar maximum of 140 ± 20.
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Magnetic flux transport and the sun's dipole moment - New twists to the Babcock-Leighton model
Y.-M. Wang,N. R. Sheeley +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explored the mechanisms that give rise to the sun's large-scale poloidal magnetic field in the framework of the Babcock-Leighton (BL) model.