Journal ArticleDOI
Progress in integrated assessment and modelling
Paul Parker,Rebecca Letcher,Anthony Jakeman,M.B. Beck,Graham P. Harris,Robert M. Argent,M. Hare,Claudia Pahl-Wostl,Alexey Voinov,Marco A. Janssen,Paul J. Sullivan,Michelle Scoccimarro,A. Friend,M. Sonnenshein,D. Barker,L. Matejicek,D. Odulaja,Peter Deadman,K. Lim,Guy R. Larocque,P. Tarikhi,C. Fletcher,A. Put,Thomas Maxwell,A. Charles,H. Breeze,N. Nakatani,S. Mudgal,W. Naito,O. Osidele,I. Eriksson,U. Kautsky,E. Kautsky,Björn Naeslund,Linda Kumblad,R. Park,S. Maltagliati,P. Girardin,Andrea Emilio Rizzoli,D. Mauriello,R. Hoch,Dominique Pelletier,J. Reilly,Rannveig Ólafsdóttir,S. Bin +44 more
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By learning to work together and recognise the contribution of all team members and participants, it is believed that the authors will have a strong scientific and social basis to address the environmental problems of the 21st Century.Abstract:
Environmental processes have been modelled for decades. However. the need for integrated assessment and modeling (IAM) has,town as the extent and severity of environmental problems in the 21st Century worsens. The scale of IAM is not restricted to the global level as in climate change models, but includes local and regional models of environmental problems. This paper discusses various definitions of IAM and identifies five different types of integration that Lire needed for the effective solution of environmental problems. The future is then depicted in the form of two brief scenarios: one optimistic and one pessimistic. The current state of IAM is then briefly reviewed. The issues of complexity and validation in IAM are recognised as more complex than in traditional disciplinary approaches. Communication is identified as a central issue both internally among team members and externally with decision-makers. stakeholders and other scientists. Finally it is concluded that the process of integrated assessment and modelling is considered as important as the product for any particular project. By learning to work together and recognise the contribution of all team members and participants, it is believed that we will have a strong scientific and social basis to address the environmental problems of the 21st Century.read more
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Journal ArticleDOI
Position paper: Characterising performance of environmental models
Neil D. Bennett,Barry Croke,Giorgio Guariso,Joseph H. A. Guillaume,Serena H. Hamilton,Anthony Jakeman,Stefano Marsili-Libelli,Lachlan Newham,John Norton,Charles Perrin,Suzanne A. Pierce,Barbara J. Robson,Ralf Seppelt,Alexey Voinov,Brian D. Fath,Vazken Andréassian +15 more
TL;DR: General classes of direct value comparison, coupling real and modelled values, preserving data patterns, indirect metrics based on parameter values, and data transformations are discussed.
Journal ArticleDOI
Position Paper11Position papers aim to synthesise some key aspect of the knowledge platform for environmental modelling and software issues. The review process is twofold - a normal external review process followed by extensive review by EMS Board members. See the Editorial in this issue.: Ten iterative steps in development and evaluation of environmental models
TL;DR: In this article, the authors outline ten basic steps of good, disciplined model practice, including identifying clearly the clients and objectives of the modelling exercise, documenting the nature (quantity, quality, limitations) of the data used to construct and test the model, providing a strong rationale for the choice of model family and features, justifying the techniques used to calibrate the model; serious analysis, testing and discussion of model performance; and making a resultant statement of model assumptions, utility, accuracy, limitations, and scope for improvement.
Journal ArticleDOI
Hydro-economic models: concepts, design, applications, and future prospects.
Julien J. Harou,Manuel Pulido-Velazquez,David E. Rosenberg,Josué Medellín-Azuara,Jay R. Lund,Richard E. Howitt +5 more
TL;DR: This paper identifies the key steps in model design and diverse problems, formulations, levels of integration, spatial and temporal scales, and solution techniques addressed and used by over 80 hydro-economic modeling efforts dating back 45 years from 23 countries.
Journal ArticleDOI
Integrated assessment of agricultural systems: a component - based framework for the European Union (Seamless)
Martin K. van Ittersum,Frank Ewert,Thomas Heckelei,Jacques Wery,Johanna Alkan Olsson,Erling Andersen,Irina V. Bezlepkina,Floor Brouwer,Marcello Donatelli,G. Flichman,Lennart Olsson,Andrea Emilio Rizzoli,Tamme van der Wal,J.J.F. Wien,Joost Wolf +14 more
TL;DR: The SEAMLESS Integrated Framework for Agricultural Systems (SEAMLESS) as discussed by the authors is a framework to assess, ex-ante, agricultural and agri-environmental policies and technologies across a range of scales, from field-farm to region and European Union, as well as some global interactions.
Journal ArticleDOI
Integrated environmental modeling: A vision and roadmap for the future
Gerard F. Laniak,Gabriel Olchin,Jonathan L. Goodall,Alexey Voinov,Mary C. Hill,Pierre D. Glynn,Gene Whelan,Gary N. Geller,Nigel W.T. Quinn,Michiel Blind,Scott D. Peckham,Sim Reaney,N. Gaber,Robert H. Kennedy,Andrew Hughes +14 more
TL;DR: This paper organizes and presents the results of a number of workshops held that brought IEM practitioners together to share experiences and discuss future needs and directions, and presents IEM as a landscape containing four interdependent elements: applications, science, technology, and community.
References
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Book
Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos
TL;DR: In a rented convent in Santa Fe, a revolution has been brewing: Nobel Laureates in physics and economics such as Murray Gell-Mann and Kenneth Arrow, and pony-tailed graduate students, mathematicians, and computer scientists down from Los Alamos are gathering novel ideas about interconnectedness, coevolution, chaos, structure, and order and forging them into an entirely new, unified way of thinking about nature, human social behavior, life, and the universe itself.
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Evaluation (not validation) of quantitative models.
TL;DR: It is argued that it is not possible to demonstrate the predictive reliability of any model of a complex natural system in advance of its actual use, and modelers and policymakers must continue to work toward finding effective ways to evaluate and judge the quality of their models.
Journal ArticleDOI
Learning from integrated assessment of climate change
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors summarized insights gained from five years of integrated assessment activity at Carnegie Mellon, and argued that many conventional tools for policy analysis are not adequate to deal with climate problems.
Journal ArticleDOI
Integrated assessment: A growing child on its way to maturity
Journal ArticleDOI
Integrated Environmental Management: Moving from Theory to Practice
TL;DR: In this article, the authors link elements of ecosystem management and related fields with interaction to offer a new operational definition and practice paradigm for integrated environmental management, focusing on stakeholder interactions, and analyse the principle communication and conflict resolution tools employed in integrated approaches.
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