Replicating and projecting the path of COVID-19 with a model-implied reproduction number.
TLDR
It is shown that declines in measures of population mobility tend to precede declines in the model-implied reproduction numbers for each country, suggesting that mandatory and voluntary stay-at-home behavior and social distancing during the early stages of the epidemic worked to reduce the effective reproduction number and mitigate the spread of COVID-19.About:
This article is published in Infectious Disease Modelling.The article was published on 2020-01-01 and is currently open access. It has received 19 citations till now.read more
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Federal Reserve Bank of New Yorkの制定せる財務諸表様式について
TL;DR: The Board of Governors' Semiannual Agenda of Regulations for the period August 1, 1980 through February 1, 1981 as discussed by the authors provides information on those regulatory matters that the Board now has under consideration or anticipates considering over the next six months.
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Analysis of Key Factors of a SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination Program: A Mathematical Modeling Approach
TL;DR: The impact of the pace of vaccination and the intrinsic efficacy of the vaccine on prevalence, hospitalizations, and deaths related to the SARS-CoV-2 virus is studied and it is found that both factors have a high impact on the outcomes.
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Analysis of Delayed Vaccination Regimens: A Mathematical Modeling Approach
TL;DR: The optimal strategy regarding vaccination campaigns is found that for vaccines with high efficacy after the first dose, the optimal strategy is to delay inoculation with the second dose, and for low first dose vaccine efficacy, it is better to use the standard vaccination regimen of 4 weeks between doses.
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A random forest model for forecasting regional COVID-19 cases utilizing reproduction number estimates and demographic data
TL;DR: In this article, a relatively non-parametric random forest model was proposed to forecast the number of COVID-19 cases at the U.S. county level. But, the model is susceptible to human error, unexpected events, or unknown characteristics of a novel infectious agent.
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How to go viral: A COVID-19 model with endogenously time-varying parameters.
TL;DR: In this article, a panel model with endogenously time-varying parameters for COVID-19 cases and deaths in U.S. states is presented, where the functional form for infections incorporates important features of epidemiological models but is flexible parameterized to capture different trajectories of the pandemic.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Clinical Characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in China.
Wei-jie Guan,Zhengyi Ni,Yu Hu,Wenhua Liang,Chun-Quan Ou,Jianxing He,Lei Liu,Hong Shan,Chunliang Lei,David S.C. Hui,Bin Du,Lanjuan Li,Guang Zeng,Kowk-Yung Yuen,Ruchong Chen,Chun-Li Tang,Tao Wang,Ping-Yan Chen,Jie Xiang,Shiyue Li,Jinlin Wang,Zi-jing Liang,Yi-xiang Peng,Li Wei,Yong Liu,Ya-hua Hu,Peng Peng,Jian-ming Wang,Ji-yang Liu,Zhong Chen,Gang Li,Zhi-jian Zheng,Shao-qin Qiu,Jie Luo,Chang-jiang Ye,Shao-yong Zhu,Nanshan Zhong +36 more
TL;DR: During the first 2 months of the current outbreak, Covid-19 spread rapidly throughout China and caused varying degrees of illness, and patients often presented without fever, and many did not have abnormal radiologic findings.
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Characteristics of and Important Lessons From the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in China: Summary of a Report of 72 314 Cases From the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Zunyou Wu,Jennifer M. McGoogan +1 more
TL;DR: Hospitalised COVID-19 patients are frequently elderly subjects with co-morbidities receiving polypharmacy, all of which are known risk factors for d
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A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics
TL;DR: In this article, the authors considered the problem of finding a causal factor which appears to be adequate to account for the magnitude of the frequent epidemics of disease which visit almost every population.
A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics.
TL;DR: The present communication discussion will be limited to the case in which all members of the community are initially equally susceptible to the disease, and it will be further assumed that complete immunity is conferred by a single infection.
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The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application.
Stephen A. Lauer,Kyra H. Grantz,Qifang Bi,Forrest K. Jones,Qulu Zheng,Hannah R. Meredith,Andrew S. Azman,Nicholas G. Reich,Justin Lessler +8 more
TL;DR: The results support current proposals for the length of quarantine or active monitoring of persons potentially exposed to SARS-CoV-2, although longer monitoring periods might be justified in extreme cases.