Simulating Immunization Campaigns and Vaccine Protection Against COVID-19 Pandemic in Brazil
Reads0
Chats0
TLDR
In this paper, the authors investigated the effects of the rate of vaccination on the COVID-19 epidemic curves, by employing a new data-driven methodology, formulated on the basis of a modified susceptible-infected-recovered model and machine learning designs.Abstract:
The vaccine roll-out has currently established a new trend in the fight against COVID-19. In many countries, as vaccination cover rises, the economic and social disruptions are being progressively reduced, bringing more confidence and hope to the population. However, a crucial debate is related to fair access to vaccines, which would lead to stepping up the pace of vaccination in developing countries. Another important issue is how immunization has influenced the control of the infection, deaths, and transmissibility of the new coronavirus in these countries. In this work, we investigate the effects of the rate of vaccination on the COVID-19 epidemic curves, by employing a new data-driven methodology, formulated on the basis of a modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model and Machine Learning designs. The data-driven methodology is applied to assess the influence of the vaccines administered in Brazil on the fight against the virus. The impacts of vaccine efficacy and immunization speed are also investigated in our study. Finally, we have found that the use of anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccines with a low/moderate efficacy can be offset by immunizing a larger proportion of the population more quickly.read more
Citations
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
Modeling the Transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant in a Partially Vaccinated Population
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors developed a mathematical model that considers both subpopulations and immunity parameters, including vaccination rates, vaccine effectiveness, and a gradual loss of protection, to forecasted the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant in the US under varied transmission and vaccination rates.
Journal ArticleDOI
Analysis and Parametrical Estimation with Real COVID-19 Data of a New Extended SEIR Epidemic Model with Quarantined Individuals
TL;DR: In this paper , a new epidemiological deterministic model is proposed, analyzed, and discussed, which includes quarantine periods of people with symptoms that have been tested positive, and it will trigger a trace of their close contact, who will be also tested and put in quarantine if the result is positive.
Journal ArticleDOI
Space-Distributed Traffic-Enhanced LSTM-Based Machine Learning Model for COVID-19 Incidence Forecasting
TL;DR: In this paper , a new machine learning model is proposed to forecast the spread of the virus one-week ahead in a geographic area which combines mobility and COVID-19 incidence data.
Journal ArticleDOI
Theoretical Analysis of the SIRVVD Model for Insights Into the Target Rate of COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination in Japan
TL;DR: In this paper , the effects of the first and second vaccination doses on the spread of infectious diseases were analyzed using the susceptible-infected-recovered-vaccination (SIRVVD) model and derived an analytical expression for the number of infected persons by considering the numbers of susceptible and vaccinated persons as parameters.
Journal ArticleDOI
Effects of vaccination on mitigating COVID-19 outbreaks: a conceptual modeling approach.
TL;DR: In this paper , a compartmental epidemic ordinary differential equation model was proposed to investigate the impact of vaccination on mitigating COVID-19 outbreaks, and the effects of vaccination again the ongoing pandemic by numerically computing the basic reproduction number $ \mathcal{R}_0 $ under different vaccination programs.
References
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
Safety and Efficacy of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine.
Fernando P. Polack,Stephen J. Thomas,Nicholas Kitchin,Judith Absalon,Alejandra Gurtman,Stephen Lockhart,John L. Perez,Gonzalo Pérez Marc,Edson D. Moreira,Cristiano Zerbini,Ruth Bailey,Kena A. Swanson,Satrajit Roychoudhury,Kenneth Koury,Ping Li,Warren Kalina,David A. Cooper,Robert W. Frenck,Laura L. Hammitt,Özlem Türeci,Haylene Nell,Axel Schaefer,Serhat Ünal,Dina B. Tresnan,Susan Mather,Philip R. Dormitzer,Ugur Sahin,Kathrin U. Jansen,William C. Gruber +28 more
TL;DR: A two-dose regimen of BNT162b2 conferred 95% protection against Covid-19 in persons 16 years of age or older and safety over a median of 2 months was similar to that of other viral vaccines.
Journal ArticleDOI
An interactive web-based dashboard to track COVID-19 in real time.
TL;DR: The outbreak of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has induced a considerable degree of fear, emotional stress and anxiety among individuals around the world.
Journal ArticleDOI
Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission
TL;DR: A precise definition of the basic reproduction number, R0, is presented for a general compartmental disease transmission model based on a system of ordinary differential equations and it is shown that, if R0<1, then the disease free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable; whereas if R 0>1,Then it is unstable.
Journal ArticleDOI
Safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine (AZD1222) against SARS-CoV-2: an interim analysis of four randomised controlled trials in Brazil, South Africa, and the UK.
Merryn Voysey,Clemens Sac.,Shabir A. Madhi,Lily Yin Weckx,P M Folegatti,Parvinder K. Aley,Brian Angus,Vicky L. Baillie,Shaun Barnabas,Q E Bhorat,S Bibi,Carmen Briner,P Cicconi,Andrea M. Collins,R Colin-Jones,Clare L. Cutland,Thomas C. Darton,Keertan Dheda,Duncan Cja.,Emary Krw.,Katie J. Ewer,Lee Fairlie,Saul N. Faust,Shuo Feng,Daniela M. Ferreira,Adam Finn,Anna Goodman,Catherine M. Green,Christopher A Green,Paul T. Heath,Christopher Hill,Helen Hill,Ian Hirsch,Hodgson Shc.,Allen Izu,S Jackson,D Jenkin,Joe Ccd.,S Kerridge,Anthonet Koen,Gaurav Kwatra,Rajeka Lazarus,Alison M. Lawrie,A Lelliott,Vincenzo Libri,Patrick J. Lillie,R Mallory,Mendes Ava.,Eveline Pipolo Milan,Angela M. Minassian,Alastair McGregor,Hazel Morrison,Y Mujadidi,Amit J Nana,P J O’Reilly,S D Padayachee,A Pittella,E Plested,Katrina M Pollock,M N Ramasamy,S Rhead,Alexandre Vargas Schwarzbold,Nisha Singh,Andrew Smith,R Song,Matthew D. Snape,Eduardo Sprinz,Rebecca K. Sutherland,R Tarrant,E. Thomson,M E Török,Mark Toshner,Turner Dpj.,Johan Vekemans,Tonya Villafana,Watson Mee.,C J Williams,Alexander D. Douglas,Hill Avs.,Teresa Lambe,Sarah C. Gilbert,Andrew J. Pollard +81 more
TL;DR: ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 has an acceptable safety profile and has been found to be efficacious against symptomatic COVID-19 in this interim analysis of ongoing clinical trials.