The Hot Hand in Professional Darts
TLDR
In this article, the authors investigate the hot hand hypothesis in professional darts in a near-ideal setting with minimal to no interaction between players, and they find a strong but short-lived serial dependence in the latent state process.Abstract:
We investigate the hot hand hypothesis in professional darts in a near-ideal setting with minimal to no interaction between players. Considering almost one year of tournament data, corresponding to 167,492 dart throws in total, we use state-space models to investigate serial dependence in throwing performance. In our models, a latent state process serves as a proxy for a player's underlying ability, and we use autoregressive processes to model how this process evolves over time. We find a strong but short-lived serial dependence in the latent state process, thus providing evidence for the existence of the hot hand.read more
Citations
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Thinking fast and slow.
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Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness
TL;DR: Thaler and Sunstein this paper described a general explanation of and advocacy for libertarian paternalism, a term coined by the authors in earlier publications, as a general approach to how leaders, systems, organizations, and governments can nudge people to do the things the nudgers want and need done for the betterment of the nudgees, or of society.
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Hot Streaks in Artistic, Cultural, and Scientific Careers
Lu Liu,Lu Liu,Yang Wang,Roberta Sinatra,Roberta Sinatra,C. Lee Giles,C. Lee Giles,Chaoming Song,Dashun Wang +8 more
TL;DR: It is shown that, because works produced during hot streaks garner substantially more impact, the uncovered hot streaks fundamentally drive the collective impact of an individual, and ignoring this leads us to systematically overestimate or underestimate the future impact of a career.
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Predictive Bayesian selection of multistep Markov chains, applied to the detection of the hot hand and other statistical dependencies in free throws
TL;DR: This paper explores cross-validation and information criteria as proxies for a model’s predictive accuracy in the case where data are drawn from systems with fixed orders of history, noting trends in the relative performance of the criteria.
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Predictive Bayesian selection of multistep Markov chains, applied to the detection of the hot hand and other statistical dependencies in free throws
TL;DR: In this article, the authors explore cross-validation and information criteria as proxies for a model's predictive accuracy in discrete-state random walks using higher-order Markov chains and find that conditioning on the previous outcome makes for a more-predictive model than treating free throw makes as independent.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Belief in the law of small numbers
Amos Tversky,Daniel Kahneman +1 more
TL;DR: This paper reported that people regard a sample randomly drawn from a population as highly representative, i.e., similar to the population in all essential characteristics, and that the prevalence of the belief and its unfortunate consequences for psychological research are illustrated by the responses of 84 professional psychologists to a questionnaire concerning research decisions.
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The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences
TL;DR: This article investigated the origin and validity of common beliefs regarding "the hot hand" and "streak shooting" in the game of basketball and found no evidence for a positive correlation between the outcomes of successive shots.
Journal ArticleDOI
Hot Hands in Mutual Funds: Short‐Run Persistence of Relative Performance, 1974–1988
TL;DR: The relative performance of no-load, growth-oriented mutual funds persists in the near term, with the strongest evidence for a one-year evaluation horizon as mentioned in this paper, and the difference in risk-adjusted performance between the top and bottom octile portfolios is six to eight percent per year.
Book
Hidden Markov Models for Time Series: An Introduction Using R
TL;DR: The model Likelihood evaluation Parameter estimation by maximum likelihood Model checking Inferring the underlying state Models for a heterogeneous group of subjects Other modifications or extensions Application to caterpillar feeding behavior appear at the end of most chapters.
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The perception of randomness
Maya Bar-Hillel,W.A. Wagenaar +1 more
TL;DR: The subjectively ideal random sequence obeys ''local representativeness'' as mentioned in this paper, namely, in short segments of it, it represents both the relative frequencies (e.g., for a coin, 50%-50%) and the irregularity (avoidance of runs and other patterns).