Journal ArticleDOI
Third-Party Intervention and the Civil War Process
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TLDR
In this paper, the authors examined empirically the effect of third-party intervention into civil wars during the period 1816-1997, using the event history framework of competing risks, concluding that intervention by third parties is central to the civil war process, a process characterized by the duration of hostilities and the type of outcome.Abstract:
What effect do third parties have on the evolution of civil wars? The authors argue that intervention by third parties is central to the civil war process, a process that is characterized by the duration of hostilities and the type of outcome. The authors examine empirically the effect of third-party intervention into civil wars during the period 1816—1997, using the event history framework of competing risks. From the perspective of competing risks, as a civil war endures, it is at risk of experiencing a transition to one of three civil war outcomes in our sample: military victory by the government, military victory by the opposition group, and negotiated settlement. The competing risks approach provides considerably better leverage on the dynamic qualities of civil wars and, in particular, the influence of interventions by third parties. The analysis suggests that third-party interventions can be decisive in the evolution of civil wars and that third-party interventions have a different effect on the du...read more
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Measuring State Capacity: Theoretical and Empirical Implications for the Study of Civil Conflict
TL;DR: The authors discusses key conceptual and measurement issues raised by measures of state capacity in studies of civil conflict, focusing specifically on those that emphasize 1) military capacity, 2) bureaucratic administrative capacity, and 3) the quality and coherence of political institutions.
Journal ArticleDOI
Armed conflicts, 1946–2014
TL;DR: In 2014, the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) recorded 40 armed conflicts with a minimum of 25 battle-related deaths, up by six from 2013 as mentioned in this paper.
Journal ArticleDOI
Measuring state capacity: Theoretical and empirical implications for the study of civil conflict
TL;DR: In this article, the authors identify and address key conceptual and measurement issues raised by measures of state capacity in studies of civil conflict, and present a review of competing definitions and operationa...
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Organized violence, 1989–2015
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors report on trends in organized violence from data collected by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), with almost 90,000 deaths recorded by UCDP last year, 2017 saw a decrease for t...
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When Suffering Begets Suffering: The Psychology of Competitive Victimhood Between Adversarial Groups in Violent Conflicts
TL;DR: Drawing on the Needs-Based Model, the authors suggest that CV may reflect groups’ motivations to restore power or moral acceptance, and contend that such competition serves various functions that contribute to the maintenance of conflicts.
References
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Book
Event History Modeling: A Guide for Social Scientists
Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier,Bradford S. Jones,R. Michael Alvarez,Nathaniel Beck,Lawrence L. Wu +4 more
TL;DR: The Cox Proportional Hazards model is used for event history analysis as a guide to modeling strategies for unobserved heterogeneity in political analysis and event history.
Journal ArticleDOI
Why Do Some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer than Others
TL;DR: This article found that civil wars emerging from coups or revolutions tend to be short and five factors are strongly related to civil war duration, including five factors that are found to be correlated with the duration of civil war.
Book
Committing to Peace: The Successful Settlement of Civil Wars
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a theory and hypothesis about the resolution of civil war in Africa, and a case study of the conflict in Zimbabwe and the breakdown of Rwanda's peace process.
Posted Content
On the Duration of Civil War
TL;DR: Collier et al. as mentioned in this paper found that the duration of large-scale, violent civil conflict increases substantially if the society is composed of a few large ethnic groups, if there is extensive forest cover, and if the conflict has commenced since 1980.
Journal ArticleDOI
Flexible parametric estimation of duration and competing risk models
Aaron K. Han,Jerry A. Hausman +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, a flexible parametric proportional hazards model is proposed and the model specification is flexibly parametric in the sense that the baseline hazard is non-parametric while the effect of the covariates takes a particular functional form.