Zoom in at African country level: potential climate induced changes in areas of suitability for survival of malaria vectors
TLDR
The potential shifts of these malaria vectors have implications for human exposure to malaria, as recrudescence of the disease is likely to be recorded in several new areas and regions and the need to develop, compile and share malaria preventive measures which can be adapted to different climatic scenarios remains crucial.Abstract:
Background: Predicting anopheles vectors’ population densities and boundary shifts is crucial in preparing for malaria risks and unanticipated outbreaks. Although shifts in the distribution and boundaries of the major malaria vectors (Anopheles gambiae s.s. and An. arabiensis) across Africa have been predicted, quantified areas of absolute change in zone of suitability for their survival have not been defined. In this study, we have quantified areas of absolute change conducive for the establishment and survival of these vectors, per African country, under two climate change scenarios and based on our findings, highlight practical measures for effective malaria control in the face of changing climatic patterns. Methods: We developed a model using CLIMEX simulation platform to estimate the potential geographical distribution and seasonal abundance of these malaria vectors in relation to climatic factors (temperature, rainfall and relative humidity). The model yielded an eco-climatic index (EI) describing the total favourable geographical locations for the species. The EI values were classified and exported to a GIS package. Using ArcGIS, the EI shape points were clipped to the extent of Africa and then converted to a raster layer using Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation method. Generated maps were then transformed into polygon-based geo-referenced data set and their areas computed and expressed in square kilometers (km 2 ). Results: Five classes of EI were derived indicating the level of survivorship of these malaria vectors. The proportion of areas increasing or decreasing in level of survival of these malaria vectors will be more pronounced in eastern and southern African countries than those in western Africa. Angola, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, South Africa and Zambia appear most likely to be affected in terms of absolute change of malaria vectors suitability zones under the selected climate change scenarios. Conclusion: The potential shifts of these malaria vectors have implications for human exposure to malaria, as recrudescence of the disease is likely to be recorded in several new areas and regions. Therefore, the need to develop, compile and share malaria preventive measures, which can be adapted to different climatic scenarios, remains crucial.read more
Citations
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Systematic Review on Diversity and Distribution of Anopheles Species in Gabon: A Fresh Look at the Potential Malaria Vectors and Perspectives
N. M. Longo-Pendy,Larson Boundenga,Pyazzi Obame Ondo Kutomy,Clark Mbou-Boutambe,Boris Makanga,Nancy Diamella Moukodoum,Judicaël Obame-Nkoghe,Patrice Makouloutou,Franck Mounioko,Rodolphe Akone-Ella,Lynda Chancelya Nkoghe-Nkoghe,Marc Flaubert Ngangue Salamba,Jean Bernard Lekana-Douki,Pierre Kengne +13 more
TL;DR: In this article , the authors examined different articles dealing with Anopheles in Gabon from ProQuest, Web of Science, PubMed, and Google scholar databases and revealed a wide diversity of anopheles species with a heterogeneous distribution, including members of the Gambiae and Nili complexes and those of the Funestus and Moucheti groups.
An Integrated Modelling Approach to Climate Change and Malaria Vulnerability Assessments
TL;DR: This paper proposes a detailed conceptual model that illustrates causal relationships between the multiple drivers of malaria transmission in line with the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recommendations for risk and vulnerability assessments and suggests that this framework can be applied at a community level.
Journal ArticleDOI
Potential distribution of the primary malaria vector Anopheles gambiae Giles [Diptera: Culicidae] in Southwest Nigeria under current and future climatic conditions
TL;DR: In this paper, the potential distribution and climatic suitability of An. gambiae under the present-day and future conditions across Southwest Nigeria using Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM).
Journal ArticleDOI
Models of spatial analysis for vector-borne diseases studies: A systematic review
TL;DR: It is difficult to generalize knowledge of VBDs from a geospatial point of view, mainly because every case is inherently independent in variable selection, geographic coverage, and temporal extension.
National Strategy for Malaria Elimination in Cape Verde in 2020 Horizon
Adilson José de Pina,António Lima Moreira,Artur Correia,Ullardina Domingos Furtado,Ibrahima Seck,Ousmane Faye,El Hadji Amadou Niang +6 more
TL;DR: The Malaria Elimination Strategy in Cape Verde in 2020 horizon is presented, with the principal domains and interventions in the country.
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