Showing papers on "Bilateral trade published in 2003"

Plants and Productivity in International Trade

Abstract: We reconcile trade theory with plant-level export behavior, extending the Ricardian model to accommodate many countries, geographic barriers, and imperfect competition. Our model captures qualitatively basic facts about U.S. plants: (i) productivity dispersion, (ii) higher productivity among exporters, (iii) the small fraction who export, (iv) the small fraction earned from exports among exporting plants, and (v) the size advantage of exporters. Fitting the model to bilateral trade among the United States and 46 major trade partners, we examine the impact of globalization and dollar appreciation on productivity, plant entry and exit, and labor turnover in U.S. manufacturing. (JEL F11, F17, O33)

The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly But Unevenly

Abstract: This paper furnishes robust evidence that the WTO has had a powerful and positive impact on trade, amounting to about 120% of additional world trade (or US$8 trillion in 2003 alone). The impact has, however, been uneven. This, in many ways, is consistent with theoretical models of the GATT/WTO. The theory suggests that the impact of a country’s membership in the GATT/WTO depends on what the country does with its membership, with whom it negotiates, and which products the negotiation covers. Using a properly specified gravity model, we find evidence consistent with these predictions. First, industrial countries that participated more actively than developing countries in reciprocal trade negotiations witnessed a large increase in trade. Second, bilateral trade was greater when both partners undertook liberalization than when only one partner did. Third, sectors that did not witness liberalization did not see an increase in trade.

The Currency Union Effect on Trade: Early Evidence from EMU

Abstract: In this paper we estimate the early effect of the European Monetary Union (EMU) on trade. We use a panel data set that includes the most recent information on bilateral trade for 22 developed countries from 1992 through 2002. During this period 12 European countries formally entered into a currency union. This is a unique event that allows us to study the effect of currency union among a relatively homogeneous group of industrial countries. Controlling for a host of other factors, we find that the effect of EMU on bilateral trade between member countries ranges between 5 and 10 percent, when compared to trade between all other pairs of countries, and between 9 and 20 percent, when compared to trade among non-EMU countries. In addition, we find no evidence of trade diversion. If anything, our results suggest that monetary union increases trade not just with EMU countries, but also with the rest of the world.

Immigration and the Trade of Provinces

Abstract: A link between immigration, imports, and exports has been found by a number of papers that have used the gravity equation to analyze bilateral trade patterns. We discuss what this research implies about the mechanisms through which immigrants expand trade and identify strengths and weakness of the various approaches. This paper also contributes to this literature by estimating immigrant effects for Canada using cross-province variation in international trade and immigration patterns. We derive an alternative functional form capturing the relationship between immigration and trade based on the proposition that immigrants use their connections and superior 'market intelligence' to exploit trade opportunities that non-immigrants do not access. We find that the average new immigrant expands exports to his/her native country by $312 and expands imports by $944.

Trade Facilitation and Economic Development : New Approach to Quantifying the Impact

Abstract: This article analyzes the relationship between trade facilitation and trade flows in the Asia Pacific region. Country specific data for port efficiency, customs environment, regulatory environment, and e-business usage are used to construct indicators for measuring trade facilitation. The relationship between these indicators and trade flows is estimated using a gravity model that includes tariffs and other standard variables. Enhanced port efficiency has a large and positive effect on trade flows. Regulatory barriers deter trade. Improvements in customs and greater e-business use significantly expand trade but to a lesser degree than improvements in ports or regulations. The benefits of specific trade facilitation efforts are estimated by quantifying differential improvements in these four areas among members of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). A scenario in which APEC members with below-average indicators improve capacity halfway to the average forall members shows that intra-APEC trade could increase by Dollar 254 billion, or 21 percent of intra-APEC trade flows.

Endogenous Preferential Trade Agreements: An Empirical Analysis

Abstract: This paper provides one of the first assessments of the hypothesis that two countries are more likely to form a preferential trade agreement (PTA) if they are already major trading partners. The paper also tests a number of predictions from the political economy literature about which countries are expected to form regional agreements. The results show that countries are more likely to be preferential trading partners if they have significant bilateral trade, are similar in size, and are both democracies. Finally, the paper measures the effect of preferential agreements on trade volumes while, unlike previous studies, treating PTA formation as endogenous.

Exchange rate and trade balance in east asia: is there a J-curve?

Abstract: This paper examines the short run and long run effects of real exchange rate changes on the real trade balance of three ASEAN countries in their bilateral trade to the US and Japan within a cointegrating vector error correction model (VECM). Generalized impulse response funtions are estimated to investigate the response to shocks. VECM estimates suggest one long-run steady-state cointegrating relationship among real trade balance, real exchange rate, real domestic and foreign income in each country. Although considerable variations exist in the results, overall the generalized impulse response functions suggest that the Marshall-Lerner condition holds in the long-run with varying degree of J-curve effects in the short-run.

Have national business cycles become more synchronized

Abstract: In this paper, we document evidence on the synchronization of business cycles across 16 countries over the past century and a quarter, demarcated into four exchange rate regimes. We find using three different methodologies that there is a secular trend towards increased synchronization for much of the twentieth century and that it occurs across diverse exchange rate regimes. This finding is in marked contrast to much of the recent literature, which has focused primarily on the evidence for the past 20 or 30 years and which has produced mixed results. We then considered a number of possible explanations for the observed pattern of increased synchronization. We first ascertained the role of shocks demarcated into country-specific (idiosyncratic) and global (common). Our key finding here is that global (common) shocks are the dominant influence across all regimes. The increasing importance of global shocks we posit reflects the forces of globalization, especially the integration of goods and services through international trade and the integration of financial markets. Our evidence shows a modest role for increasing bilateral trade in explaining synchronization, with stronger evidence for regional integration in Europe and North America but the evidence for the role of financial integration proxied by the removal of capital controls is inconclusive.

Trade facilitation and economic development : measuring the impact

Abstract: The authors analyze the relationship between trade facilitation, trade flows, and GDP per capita in the Asia-Pacific region for the goods sector. They define and measure trade facilitation using four broad indicators. These are constructed using country-specific data for port efficiency, customs environment, regulatory environment, and electronic-business usage. They estimate the relationship between these indicators and trade flows using a gravity model. The model includes tariffs and other standard variables. The authors find that enhanced port efficiency has a large and positive effect on trade. Regulatory barriers deter trade. The results also suggest that improvements in customs and greater electronic-business use significantly expands trade, but to a lesser degree than the effect of ports or regulations. The authors then estimate the benefits of specific trade facilitation efforts by quantifying differential improvement by members of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) in these four areas. Based on a scenario in which APEC members below average improve capacity halfway to the average for all members, the authors find that intra-APEC trade could increase by $254 billion. This represents approximately a 21 percent increase in intra-APEC trade flows, about half coming from improved port efficiencies in the region. Using Dollar and Kraay's estimate of the effect of trade on per capita GDP, these improvements in trade facilitation suggest an increase in APEC average per capita GDP of 4.3 percent.

Exchange-Rate Regimes and International Trade: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard Era

Abstract: In this paper we show that the spread of the classical gold standard in the late nineteenth century increased international trade flows. This positive effect was compounded whenever a group of countries formed a monetary union. Applying the gravity model of trade to more than 1,100 country pairs during the 1870-1910 period, we find that two countries on gold would trade 60 percent more with each other than with countries on a different monetary standard. Moreover, a monetary union would more than double bilateral trade flows. Our findings are relevant for current discussions on alternative monetary arrangements for the twenty-first century.

A disaggregated approach to test the J-Curve phenomenon: Japan versus her major trading partners

Abstract: A limited number of studies have tested the J-Curve phenomenon using bilateral trade data between the United States and its major trading partners. In this paper, we test the J-Curve hypothesis by using quarterly bilateral data over the 1973–98 period between Japan and its nine major trading partners. We demonstrate that when aggregate data are used, there is no evidence of the J-Curve in the short run or any significant relation between trade balance and effective exchange rate in the long run. However, when bilateral data are employed, we find evidence of the J-Curve between Japan and Germany as well as between Japan and Italy. We also find that real depreciation of the yen has favorable long-run effects in the cases of Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Gravity model: An application to trade between regional blocs

Abstract: The objective of this paper is to evaluate the determinants of bilateral trade flows among 47 countries and, particularly, the effects of preferential agreements between several economic blocs and areas: European Union (EU), North-American Free Trade Area NAFTA), Caribbean Community (CARICOM), Centro-American Common Market (CACM), and other Mediterranean countries (MEDIT). The period under study is from 1980–99. The authors estimate a gravity equation that allows the comparison of the weight of the influence of preferential agreements and also, infers the relevance of other determinants of bilateral trade flows such us geographic proximity, income levels, population, and cultural similarities. The analysis is undertaken for each year of the sample in order to capture the temporal evolution of the impacts on trade of the different variables considered. Using the estimation results as a base, trade potentials resulting from new free trade agreements are calculated.

Currency unions and trade: The special case of EMU

Abstract: In this paper, the impact of the adoption of the euro on the commercial transactions of EMU countries is investigated. It seeks to disentangle the effects of eliminating exchange rate volatility — and those of other policy factors that promote integration — from the influence of the emergence of the European currency union. Since EMU is a relatively new phenomenon, a panel estimation of the gravity equation in a dynamic framework is used in order to capture effects like trade persistence. The main finding is that the adoption of the euro has had a positive but not an exorbitant impact on bilateral trade between European countries (ranging between 9 and 10 per cent). The impact is much lower than that shown in the recent literature on a larger and heterogeneous set of countries. One reason for this divergence seems to be that the euro was adopted after decades of integration policies had already worked through in Europe. JEL no. F4, F15, C230

The Intangible Globalization : Explaining the Patterns of International Trade in Services

Abstract: Although international trade in services represent more than 20% of worldwide trade, and trade liberalization within this sector plays a key role in the ongoing WTO negotiations, economists have devoted surprisingly little attention to the empirical modeling of service trade. In this paper, we model service trade using a gravity model, based on recently collected bilateral trade and FDI data as well as indicators for trade barriers, both on macro and more disaggregated levels. We particularly emphasize the strong links between FDI and international trade in services, since a large proportion of service trade relates to local supply (Mode 3 trade in the GATS classification). We provide evidence showing that service trade and FDI are strongly driven by the size and the similarity in size of the trading partners. The effect of similarity is larger for FDI than for trade, indicating that multinational enterprises benefit the most when the income of countries converges. This is consistent with recently developed theoretical models (see e.g. Markusen and Venables, 1998). Our data on trade barriers and public corruption also contributes to reduce service trade and FDI. However, when we run regressions based on a more disaggregated data set, the sector specific trade barriers become less significant. We find that service trade and FDI are complements. We show that an exporting country fixed effect specification of the gravity model improves the model fit, implying that there are significant unexplained country specific effects determining service trade. Finally, we predict the volume of service trade and FDI when barriers are eliminated. The results reveal that there are large gains from continuing further liberalization efforts, for example via the GATS agreement, but that the gains from trade are unevenly distributed among countries.

The Impact of International Economic Sanctions on Trade An empirical Analysis

Abstract: International economic sanctions appear to be a common and recurring feature of political interactions between states. In particular, the United States is the country which has most frequently applied negative economic sanctions after World War II. In a parallel way, several measures, imposed by a multilateral organisation like the United Nations have taken place in recent years. This paper provides, through a gravity model approach, an estimation of the impact of economic negative sanctions on international trade. First, the study reports panel gravity estimates of bilateral trade between the U.S. and 49 target countries over the period 1960-2000, inclusive. The results show that extensive and comprehensive sanctions have a large negative impact on bilateral trade, while this is not the case for limited and moderate sanctions. A second estimation focuses on the impact of unilateral U.S. sanctions on bilateral trade volume between target countries and the other G-7 countries over the same period. The results show that unilateral extensive sanctions have a large negative impact, while limited and moderate ones induce a slight positive effect on other G-7 countries bilateral trade. Thus, in the first case the hypothesis of negative ‘network effects’ is confirmed, while in the latter the sanctions- busting argument should be defended. In both estimations, however, multilateral sanctions demonstrate a large negative impact on trade flows.

Does Ease of Communication Increase Trade? Commonality of Language and Bilateral Trade

Abstract: Gravity model explanations of trade volumes frequently include dummy variables to account for the commonality of language among trading partners. In this paper we use a data set for the number of people in a country who speak English as a first language or English as a second language (Crystal, 1997) as an indicator of the ease with which trade with the United States occurs. Controlling for commodity fixed effects we use SITC three digit industry data centred on 1995 United States bilateral trade with 33 countries to determine the effect of the degree of language commonality on bilateral trade. Both English as a first language and English as a second language are found to be less important for exports than for imports. This is true for all three digit industries as well as when the specific industry groups identified in Rauch (1999) are considered.

Policies and International Integration: Influences on Trade and Foreign Direct Investment

Abstract: This paper assesses the importance of border and non-border policies for global economic integration. The focus is on four widely-advocated policies: removing explicit restrictions to trade and FDI; promoting domestic competition; improving the adaptability of labour markets; and ensuring adequate levels of infrastructure capital. The analysis covers FDI and trade in both goods and services, thus aiming to account for the most important channels of globalisation and dealing with most modes of cross-border services supply. It first describes trends in trade, FDI and the four sets of policies using a large set of structural policy indicators recently constructed by the OECD, including the new summary indicators for FDI-specific regulations described in Golub (2003). It then estimates the impact of policies on bilateral trade and bilateral and multilateral FDI. The results highlight that, despite extensive liberalisation over the past two decades, there is scope for further reducing ...

Exploring alternative theories of economic regionalism: from trade to finance in Asian co-operation?

Abstract: The financial crises of the late 1990s marked an intellectual watershed for the global economy, and also for regionalism as the Janus face of globalization. At the beginning of the twenty-first cen...

Multilateral, Regional and Bilateral Trade-Policy Options for the United States and Japan

Abstract: We have used the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to simulate the economic effects on the United States, Japan, and other major trading countries/regions of the Doha Round of WTO multilateral trade negotiations and a variety of regional/bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) involving the United States and Japan. We estimate that an assumed reduction of post-Uruguay Round tariffs and other barriers on agricultural and industrial products and services by 33 per cent in the Doha Round would increase world welfare by $686.4 billion, with gains of $164.0 billion for the United States, $132.6 billion for Japan, and significant gains for all other industrialised and developing countries/regions. If there were global free trade with all post-Uruguay Round trade barriers completely removed, world welfare would increase by $2.1 trillion, with gains of $497.0 billion (5.5 per cent of GNP) for the United States and $401.9 billion (6.2 per cent of GNP) for Japan. Regional agreements such as an APEC FTA, an ASEAN Plus 3 FTA, and a Western Hemisphere FTA would increase global and member country welfare but much less so than the Doha multilateral trade round would. Separate bilateral FTAs involving Japan with Singapore, Mexico, Chile and Korea, and the United States with Chile, Singapore and Korea would have positive, though generally small, welfare effects on the partner countries, but potentially disruptive sectoral employment shifts in some countries. There would be trade diversion and detrimental welfare effects on some non-member countries for both the regional and bilateral FTAs analysed. The welfare gains from multilateral trade liberalisation are therefore considerably greater than the gains from preferential trading arrangements and more uniformly positive for all countries.

Can Business and Social Networks Explain the Border Effect Puzzle

Abstract: McCallum (1995) shows in an influential contribution that, even when controlling for the impact of bilateral distance and region size, borders sharply reduce trade volumes between countries. We use in this Paper data on bilateral trade flows between 94 French regions, for 10 industries and two years (1978 and 1993) to study the magnitude and variations over time of trade impediments, both distance-related and (administrative) border-related. We focus on assessing the role that business and social networks can play in shaping trade patterns and explaining the border effect puzzle. Using a structural econometric approach, we show that intranational administrative borders significantly affect trade patterns inside France. The impact is of the same order of magnitude as in Wolf (2000) for trade inside the United States. We show that more than 60% of these (puzzling) intranational border effects can be explained by the composition of local labour force in terms of birth place (social networks) and by inter-plants connections (business networks). In addition, controlling for these network effects reduces the impact of transport cost on trade flows by a comparable factor. Thus, business and social networks that help to reduce informational trade barriers are shown to be strong determinants of trade patterns and to explain a large part of the border puzzle.

Have National Business Cycles Become More Synchronized

Abstract: In this paper, we document evidence on the synchronization of business cycles across 16 countries over the past century and a quarter, demarcated into four exchange rate regimes. We find using three different methodologies that there is a secular trend towards increased synchronization for much of the twentieth century and that it occurs across diverse exchange rate regimes. This finding is in marked contrast to much of the recent literature, which has focused primarily on the evidence for the past 20 or 30 years and which has produced mixed results. We then considered a number of possible explanations for the observed pattern of increased synchronization. We first ascertained the role of shocks demarcated into country-specific (idiosyncratic) and global (common). Our key finding here is that global (common) shocks are the dominant influence across all regimes. The increasing importance of global shocks we posit reflects the forces of globalization, especially the integration of goods and services through international trade and the integration of financial markets. Our evidence shows a modest role for increasing bilateral trade in explaining synchronization, with stronger evidence for regional integration in Europe and North America but the evidence for the role of financial integration proxied by the removal of capital controls is inconclusive.

The Influence Of Policies On Trade And Foreign Direct Investment

Abstract: This paper assesses the importance of border and non-border policies for global economic integration. The focus is on four widely-advocated policies: removing explicit restrictions to trade and FDI; promoting domestic competition; improving the adaptability of labour markets; and ensuring adequate levels of infrastructure capital. The analysis covers FDI and trade in both goods and services, thus aiming to account for the most important channels of globalisation and dealing with most modes of cross-border services supply. The results highlight that, despite extensive liberalisation over the past two decades, there is scope for further reducing policy barriers to integration of OECD markets. Remaining barriers have a significant impact on bilateral trade and FDI, with anticompetitive domestic regulations and restrictive labour market arrangements estimated to curb integration as much as explicit trade and FDI restrictions. Simulating the removal of such barriers suggests that the quantitative effects of further liberalisation of trade, FDI and domestic product and labour markets on global integration could be substantial...

China-Asean Free Trade Agreement: Shaping Future Economic Relations

Abstract: The China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement has been hailed as a landmark pact in pushing for freer trade between China and the ASEAN countries. With the establishment of the free trade zone, trade and investment between the Chinese and ASEAN economies are expected to increase significantly; but while the economic benefits are inexorable, the extent of gains derived from closer integration hinges on the Sino-ASEAN economic relationship, which is both complementary and competitive in nature. At the present stage of development, China and ASEAN are more competitive than complementary, given the similarity in their trade and industrial structures. ASEAN and China are also direct competitors for foreign investment, rather than significant investors in each other9s economies. Despite these challenges, the prospects for bilateral trade to flourish are bright if both China and ASEAN can interlock their economies through deeper integration in the long term.

Trade, Trust and Transaction Costs

Abstract: Transaction costs are a major reason why international trade flows are much smaller than traditional trade theory would suggest. Trust between trading partners lowers transaction costs and may therefore enhance trade. The empirical analysis of this paper shows that more trust leads to more trade so that part of the "mystery of missing trade" can be attributed to the lack of trust between trading partners, e.g. because of cultural differences and habits, or because of insufficient information on product quality and reliability. Our gravity equation estimates for 25 countries show that measures of both formal and of informal trust contribute to the explanation of bilateral trade flows. When we assume an increase in informal trust by one standard deviation, the combined effects of formal and informal trust may add up to a 90 to 150 percent change in bilateral trade, depending on the legal system. Moreover our estimation results suggest that the causal relation runs primarily from trust to trade, and that formal and informal trust are substitutes.

Are Regional Trading Partners 'Natural'?

Abstract: A central statement of the theory of natural trading partners is that preferential trading with regional trading partners is less likely to be trade diverting and therefore geographically proximate partners are to be considered "natural" partners for preferential arrangements. This paper examines this question empirically. The analytical framework involves a general equilibrium model of preferential trade and an econometric model with tight links to this theory. This framework is used to implement tests of the natural trading partners hypothesis using U.S. trade data for the years 1964-95: Welfare changes that would result from preferential tariff reductions by the United States against various trading partners are first estimated, and correlations with bilateral "distance" measures (with and without controls for income levels) are then examined. Since the argument for "natural" trading partners is based on the greater likelihood of geographically proximate countries to be more significant trade partners, correlations between the welfare change estimates and bilateral trade volume are examined as well. Both geographic proximity and trade volume are found to have no effect. Thus this paper is unable to find any support for the natural trading partners theory in U.S. data.

Impact of Transport Costs on International Trade: The Case of Spanish Ceramic Exports

Abstract: This paper aims to investigate the determinants of maritime and overland transport costs and the role they play in deterring trade across countries We estimate a transport cost function using data on maritime and overland transport of the ceramic sector (tiles) obtained from interviews held with Spanish logistics operators We also study the relationship between transport costs and trade and estimate an import demand model for ceramic products Additionally, we present a discussion on the sensitivity of trade flows and transportation costs to the existence of back-hauling, special conditions for transport and number of reloads1 The study of modal transport (overland versus maritime) and its differential characteristics are of relevant interest for maritime economists and should be taken into account in economic policy-making Furthermore, the proven impact of infrastructure on transport costs and trade points towards the importance of investing in new port infrastructures as a way of fostering trade and income Our results from the transport cost estimation show that higher distance and poor partner infrastructure lead to a notable increase in transport costs Inclusion of infrastructure measures improves the fit of the regression, thus corroborating the importance of infrastructure in determining transport costs The distance coefficient remains significant and with similar magnitude when we add infrastructure variables Our results from the trade equation estimation show that importer income, as expected, has a positive influence in bilateral trade flows Higher transport costs significantly deter trade, and distance does not appear to be a good proxy for transport costs in the ceramics sector

A panel data analysis of Bangladesh’s trade: the gravity model approach

Abstract: []: Attempts are made to provide a theoretical justification for using the gravity model in the analysis of bilateral trade and apply the generalized gravity model to analyse the Bangladesh’s trade with its major trading partners using the panel data estimation technique We have estimated the gravity model of trade (sum of exports and imports), the gravity model of export and the gravity model of import Our results show that Bangladesh’s trade is positively determined by the size of the economies, per capita GNP differential of the countries involved and openness of the trading countries The major determinants of Bangladesh’s exports are: the exchange rate, partner countries’ total import demand and openness of the Bangladesh economy All three factors affect the Bangladesh’s exports positively The exchange rate, on the other hand, has no effect on the Bangladesh’s import; rather imports are determined by the inflation rates, per capita income differentials and openness of the countries involved in trade Transportation cost is found a significant factor in influencing Bangladesh’s trade negatively Also Bangladesh’s imports are found to be influenced to a great extent by the border between India and Bangladesh The country specific effects show that Bangladesh would do better by trading more with its neighbouring countries Multilateral resistance factors affect Bangladesh’s trade and exports positively

Globalization and Dirty Industries: Do Pollution Havens Matter?

Abstract: This paper reviews arguments and evidence on the impact of globalization on the environment, then presents evidence on production and international trade flows in five heavily polluting industries for 52 countries over the period 1981-98. A new decomposition of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) according to geographical origin reveals a delocalization to the South for all heavily polluting industries except non-ferrous metals that exhibits South-North delocalization in accordance with factor-abundance driven response to a reduction in trade barriers. Panel estimation of a gravity model of bilateral trade on the same data set reveals that, on average, polluting industries have higher barriers-to-trade costs (except non-ferrous metals with significantly lower barriers to trade) and little evidence of delocalization in response to a North-South regulatory gap.