Showing papers on "Bilateral trade published in 2013"

Gravity redux: measuring international trade costs with panel data

Abstract: Barriers to international trade are known to be large. But have they become smaller over time? Building on the gravity framework by Anderson and van Wincoop (2003), I derive an analytical solution for time-varying and observable multilateral resistance variables. This solution gives rise to a micro-founded gravity equation from which bilateral trade costs can be directly inferred. This approach is easy to implement and obviates the need to impose arbitrary trade cost functions. As an illustration, I show that U.S. trade costs with major trading partners declined on average by about 40 percent between 1970 and 2000, with Mexico and Canada experiencing the biggest reductions.

Comparing alternative methods to estimate gravity models of bilateral trade

Abstract: The gravity equation has been traditionally used to predict trade flows across countries. However, several problems related with its empirical application still remain unsolved. The unobserved heterogeneity, the presence of heteroskedasticity in trade data or the existence of zero flows, which make the estimation of the logarithm unfeasible, are some of them. This paper provides a survey of the most recent literature concerning the specification and estimation methods of this equation. For a dataset covering 80% of world trade, the most widely extended estimators are compared, showing that the Heckman sample selection model performs better overall for the specification of gravity equation selected.

Trade costs in the developing world : 1995 – 2010

Abstract: The authors use newly collected data on trade and production in 178 countries to infer estimates of trade costs in agriculture and manufactured goods for the 1995-2010 period. The data show that trade costs are strongly declining in per capita income. Moreover, the rate of change of trade costs is largely unfavorable to the developing world: trade costs are falling noticeably faster in developed countries than in developing ones, which serves to increase the relative isolation of the latter. In particular, Sub-Saharan African countries and low-income countries remain subject to very high levels of trade costs. In terms of policy implications, the analysis finds that maritime transport connectivity and logistics performance are very important determinants of bilateral trade costs: in some specifications, their combined effect is comparable to that of geographical distance. Traditional and non-traditional trade policies more generally, including market entry barriers and regional integration agreements, play a significant role in shaping the trade costs landscape.

Is Protectionism on the Rise? Assessing National Trade Policies during the Crisis of 2008

Abstract: To understand the role of trade policies in the crisis of 2008, this paper constructs the overall trade restrictiveness indices for a wide range of countries using their tariff schedules in 2008 and 2009. The index summarizes the trade policy stance of a country, taking into account the share of each good in trade as well as its corresponding import demand elasticity. Results show that there is no widespread increase in protectionism via tariff policies since the global financial crisis has unfolded. While many countries have adjusted tariffs upward on selected products, only a handful of countries, such as Malawi, Russia, Argentina, Turkey and China focus on products that have significant impacts on trade flows. The United States and the European Union, by contrast, rely mainly on anti-dumping duties to shield domestic industries. Overall, while the rise in tariffs and anti-dumping duties in these countries may have jointly caused global trade to drop by as much as US$43 billion during the crisis period, it explains less than 2 percent of the collapse in world trade.

The Impact of Logistics Performance on Trade

Abstract: This paper studies the impact of logistics performance on global bilateral trade. Taking a supply chain perspective, logistics performance refers to cost, time, and complexity in accomplishing import and export activities. We draw on a data set compiled by the World Bank containing specific quantitative metrics of logistics performance in terms of time, cost, and variability in time. Numerous researchers have shown that logistics performance is statistically significantly related to the volume of bilateral trade. Our research calibrates the impact of specific improvements in logistics performance (time, cost, and reliability) on increased trade. Our findings can spur public and private agencies that have direct or indirect influence over logistics performance to focus attention on altering the most relevant aspects of logistics performance to improve their country's ability to compete in today's global economy. Moreover, as our logistics metrics are directly related to operational performance, countries can use these metrics to target actions to improve logistics and monitor their progress.

A spatial analysis of international stock market linkages

Abstract: We employ spatial econometrics techniques to investigate to what extent countries’ economic and geographical relations affect their stock market co-movements. Among the relations that we analyze, bilateral trade proves to be best suited to capture co-variations in returns. We find a strong effect of a unit shock to three regionally dominant countries, namely the US, the UK, and Japan, on other countries through the trade linkage. The degree of stock market dependence increases and the importance of proximity decreases over time and during recessions. We also analyze several regional crises and find a large impact of Thailand on its trade neighbors during the Asian crisis.

The Foreign Policy Consequences of Trade: China’s Commercial Relations with Africa and Latin America, 1992–2006

Abstract: What are the foreign policy consequences of China’s growing trade relations? In particular, are states that trade more heavily with China more likely to side with it on key foreign policy issues? Does a shift toward China come at the expense of American influence? We evaluate these questions using data on bilateral trade for China and developing countries in Africa and Latin America between 1992 and 2006. Using ordinary and two-stage least squares to control for endogeneity, we present the first systematic evidence that trade with China generates foreign policy consequences. The more states trade with China, the more likely they are to converge with it on issues of foreign policy. This has implications for the United States, whose foreign policy preferences have diverged from those of China during the period of study and who may find it harder to attract allies in international forums.

Gravity's Rainbow: A dynamic latent space model for the world trade network

Abstract: The gravity model, long the empirical workhorse for modeling international trade, ignores network dependencies in bilateral trade data, instead assuming that dyadic trade is independent, conditional on a hierarchy of covariates over country, time, and dyad. We argue that there are theoretical as well as empirical reasons to expect network dependencies in international trade. Consequently, standard gravity models are empirically inadequate. We combine a gravity model specification with “latent space” networks to develop a dynamic mixture model for real-valued directed graphs. The model simultaneously incorporates network dependencies in both trade incidence and trade volumes. We estimate this model using bilateral trade data from 1990 to 2008. The model substantially outperforms standard accounts in terms of both in- and out-of-sample predictive heuristics. We illustrate the model's usefulness by tracking trading propensities between the USA and China.

Aid, Aid for Trade, and bilateral trade: An empirical study

Abstract: In a gravity model for 184 countries between 1990 and 2005, we show that bilateral aid is not only positively correlated with donor exports, as suggested in earlier studies, but also positively associated with recipient exports to donors. Our interpretation is that an intensified aid relation reduces the effective cost of distance. We find a particularly strong effect of aid in the form of technical assistance. The effect of trade-related assistance (Aid for Trade) is small and fully accounted for by aid to investments in trade-related infrastructure. The aid-trade link is particularly strong for donor exports to Sub-Saharan African countries and for recipient exports of strategic materials.

Gravity Equations: Workhorse, Toolkit, and Cookbook

Abstract: This chapter focuses on the estimation and interpretation of gravity equations for bilateral trade. This necessarily involves a careful consideration of the theoretical underpinnings since it has become clear that naive approaches to estimation lead to biased and frequently misinterpreted results. There are now several theory-consistent estimation methods and we argue against sole reliance on any one method and instead advocate a toolkit approach. One estimator may be preferred for certain types of data or research questions but more often the methods should be used in concert to establish robustness. In recent years, estimation has become just a first step before a deeper analysis of the implications of the results, notably in terms of welfare. We try to facilitatediffusion of best-practice methods by illustrating their application in a step-by-step cookbook mode of exposition.

Estimating the Effects of Kyoto on Bilateral Trade Flows Using Matching Econometrics

Abstract: Many Kyoto countries fear a loss of competitiveness due to unilateral climate policy efforts; policymakers therefore call for carbon-related border tax adjustments. With this paper we attempt to estimate the treatment effect of Kyoto commitment on bilateral export flows using regression-adjusted differences-in-differences matching techniques. The gravity and international environmental agreement formation literatures provide guidelines for the choice of matching variables. We find that Kyoto countries’ exports are reduced by 13 to 14 per cent due to Kyoto commitment. Trade effects are largest in energy-intensive, homogeneous industries such as iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, organic and inorganic chemicals but also in machinery and equipment.

Services Linkages and the Value Added Content of Trade

Abstract: Services trade constitute roughly one-third of trade on a value added basis, and much of this is concentrated in margin services (transport, logistics) linked to trade in goods. However, producer services are also part of the value added contained in traded goods. This is especially true in high income countries, where services account for roughly 70 percent of value added. Working with data (a set of global social accounting matrices spanning intermittent years from 1992 to 2007) this paper examines the services embodied in trade on a value added basis. This includes not only the direct and indirect contribution of services to value added contained in a given country’s exports, but also the extent to which third-country value added in services, through intermediate linkages of imported goods and services, are also embodied in production and trade. This exercise serves to highlight not only the importance of non-tradables in trade, but also by extension the importance that productivity, foreign affiliates sales, and trade and investment in services may hold for interdependence and cross-border linkages.

Trade in Value Added : Developing New Measures of Cross-Border Trade

Abstract: This volume includes papers that were first presented and discussed at a workshop on 'The Fragmentation of Global Production and Trade in Value- Added: Developing New Measures of Cross Border Trade', held at the World Bank in Washington, DC, on 9 to 10 June, 2011. This publication is structured as follows: chapter one gives and overview of measuring trade in value added when production is fragmented across countries. Chapter two discusses policy rationale and methodological challenges towards the measurement of trade in value-added terms. Chapter three highlights the importance of measuring trade in value added. Chapter four computes and analyses the value-added content of trade. Chapter five proposes an accounting framework for estimating the domestic and foreign content share in a country's exports when processing trade is prevalent. Chapter six provides estimates of foreign and domestic content in Mexico's manufacturing exports that take into account the import content in production under the maquiladora and Programa de Importacion Temporal para Producir Articulos de Exportacion (PITEX) programmes. Chapter seven gives empirical evidence that the standard gravity equation performs poorly by some measures when it is applied to bilateral flows where parts and components trade is important. It also provides a simple theoretical foundation for a modified gravity equation that is suited to explain trade where international supply chains are important. Chapter eight provides methodological guidelines on how to compute import coefficients at the level of the firm and shows how trade micro-data, can refine the aggregate nature of the indicators in input-output (IO) tables, by increasing their granularity. Chapter nine reviews the availability of underlying source data, summarizes the assumptions and describes the harmonization techniques used. Chapter ten gives three-stage reconciliation method to construct a time series international IO database. Chapter eleven gives direct measurement for collecting product- and firm-level statistics on value added and business function outsourcing and offshoring. Chapter twelve focuses on statistics and measures that are developed and used for defining and monitoring trade policy and economic development. Each chapter gives references at the end.

Environmental Provisions in American and EU Free Trade Agreements: A Preliminary Comparison and Research Agenda

Abstract: Environmental provisions are included into bilateral trade agreements in increasingly creative ways. This article offers an initial exploration of the policy and legal dimensions of environmental provisions included in recent bilateral trade agreements concluded by the United States and by the European Union. Based primarily on a coding analysis of the environmental provisions contained in American and EU trade agreements since the mid-2000s, the article illuminates the variable characteristics of these environmental provisions, including the different approaches of the United States and the EU (punitive versus cooperative) to their implementation. The article pays particular attention to the unprecedented links that these treaties create with multilateral environmental agreements. It concludes with a discussion of avenues for future research, including approaches that are comparative and interdisciplinary in nature.

Accounting Relations in Bilateral Value Added Trade

Abstract: The increasing international fragmentation of production has triggered the development of a number of widely used indicators accounting for value added flows in the world economy. This paper generalises these measures by simultaneously considering the import side and focusing on bilateral gross and value added trade flows. It discusses how these indicators relate to each other, the role of double counting in bilateral value added trade, and aggregation issues in global value added flows. Using the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) selected results on bilateral value added trade for the EU 27 countries, the United States and China over the period 1995-2011 are presented.

Chinese Firms' Entry to Export Markets: The Role of Foreign Export Spillovers

Abstract: In this paper, the effect of proximity to multinational exporters on the creation of new export linkages (the extensive margin of trade) is debated. Using panel data from Chinese customs for 1997-2007, the capacity for Chinese domestic firms to begin exporting new varieties to new markets is shown to respond positively to the export activity of neighboring foreign firms. These spillovers are shown to be product and country specific. This conclusion is robust to fixed effects and instrumental variable specifications that control for both supply and demand shocks that could bias the estimations. The impact is sizable. The marginal impact of product-country-specific foreign export spillovers is five times as large as the effect of a 10 percent increase in the demand for the product in the destination country. Foreign export spillovers are also shown to be primarily limited to ordinary trade activities. Overall, our findings suggest that even for a country with an important cost-advantage such as China, there is room for initiatives from policy-makers that will diffuse best practices regarding export experience among exporters.

Bilateral trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific : origins, evolution, and implications

Abstract: PART I Theoretical framework and economic overview 1. Bilateral trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific by VINOD K. AGGARWAL 2. The political economy of the new Asia-Pacific bilateralism: benign, banal, or simply bad? by JOHN RAVENHILL 3. Bilateralism in the Asia-Pacific: an economic overview by FUKUNARI KIMURA PART II Case studies 4. Japan: a new move toward bilateral trade agreements by T.J. PEMPEL AND SHUJIRO URATA 5. US trade arrangements in the Asia-Pacific by RICHARD E. FEINBERG 6. Chinese trade bilateralism: politics still in command by ELAINE S. KWEI 7. From multilateralism to bilateralism? a shift in South Korea's trade strategy by MIN GYO KOO 8. Who rules the international economy? Taiwan's daunting attempts at bilateralism by ROSELYN Y. HSUEH 9. Singapore trade bilateralism: a two track strategy by SEUNGJOO LEE 10. Why countries are so eager to establish bilateral free trade agreements: a case study of Thailand by KOZO KIYOTA 11. The reluctant bilateralist: Malaysia's new trade strategy by YUMIKO OKAMOTO 12. Free trade beyond NAFTA: the economic and institutional rationale for Mexico's bilateral trade agenda by RALPH ESPACH PART III Conclusion 13. The evolution and implications of bilateral trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific by VINOD K. AGGARWAL AND MIN GYO KOO

Selection bias in a gravity model of agrifood trade

Abstract: In the analysis of bilateral trade flows, reported trade of zero or missing observations is quite common and this is a problem when estimating log-linear gravity equations. This has caused many researchers to either ignore the zero trade flows or replace the zero with a small positive number. Both of these actions bias the resulting parameter estimates of the gravity equation. In this study, we correct for this misspecification by using the Heckman selection model to estimate bilateral trade flows for 46 agrifood products, for the period 1990–2000, for 52 countries. In our sample, selection bias rarely affects the signs of variables but often has a substantial effect on the magnitude, statistical significance and economic interpretation of the marginal effects. Hence, treating zero trade flows properly is important from both a statistical and an economics perspective. , Oxford University Press.

Consolidated Data on International Trade in Services

Abstract: This is an update to the 2009 release of the trade in services database (TSD). The database provides a consolidated and reconciled version of multiple sources of bilateral trade data. Its advantages over the original source data are that it provides broader coverage based on mirror flows, reconciliation of aggregate with underlying flows, and consolidation (allowing for broader coverage than offered by source data). One weakness, inherent in all available data of this type, is that even with mirror flows, a substantial share of South-­†South trade is unreported. As such, while we can recover North-­†South exports from mirror flows, we cannot recover all unreported bilateral flows. Comparing trade with the world can gauge the scale of the problem with bilateral flows in the database. This version includes extended EBOPS data in *.csv and *.dta (stata) format for the full database, as well as a smaller version aggregated to GTAP sectors. The panel spans 1981 to 2010, though early years and 2010 are relatively incomplete. Recent year data covers almost all OECD trade (based on reported totals and bilateral flows) though only 40 to 60 percent of middle and low-income bilateral flows can be identified.

Does foreign aid promote recipient exports to donor countries

Abstract: This paper uses the gravity model of trade to investigate the effect of foreign aid on exports of aid recipients to donor countries. Most of the theoretical work emphasises the possible negative impact of aid on recipient countries’ exports, primarily due to exchange rate appreciation, disregarding possible positive effects of aid in overcoming supply bottlenecks and promoting bilateral trade relations. Using non-stationary panel (cointegration) estimators to control for omitted variable and endogeneity bias, we find that the net effect of aid on recipient countries’ exports is insignificant, both for our sample (of 123 countries) as a whole and for important regional sub-samples. This finding is in line with the small or insignificant macroeconomic impact of aid found in earlier studies and also suggests that exporters in recipient countries are not benefiting from improved trade relations with donors.