Showing papers on "Boom published in 2007"

Understanding Recent Trends in House Prices and Home Ownership

Abstract: This paper looks at a broad array of evidence concerning the recent boom in home prices, and considers what this means for future home prices and the economy. It does not appear possible to explain the boom in terms of fundamentals such as rents or construction costs. A psychological theory, that represents the boom as taking place because of a feedback mechanism or social epidemic that encourages a view of housing as an important investment opportunity, fits the evidence better. Three case studies of past booms are considered for comparison: the US housing boom of 1950, the US farmland boom of the 1970s, and the temporary interruption 2004-5 of the UK housing boom.

Adjustment within the euro. The difficult case of Portugal

Abstract: In the second half of the 1990s, the prospect of entry in the euro led to an output boom and large current account deficits in Portugal. Since then, the boom has turned into a slump. Current account deficits are still large, and so are budget deficits. This paper reviews the facts, the likely adjustment in the absence of major policy changes, and examines policy options. JEL Classification E32 · E65 · F32 · F41 · J50

Booms, Busts, and Fraud

Abstract: Firms sometimes commit fraud by altering publicly reported information to be more favorable, and investors can monitor flrms to obtain more accurate information. We study equilibrium fraud and monitoring decisions. Fraud is most likely to occur in relatively good times, and the link between fraud and good times becomes stronger as monitoring costs decrease. Nevertheless, improving business conditions may sometimes diminish fraud. We provide an explanation for why fraud peaks towards the end of a boom and is then revealed in the ensuing bust. We also show that fraud can increase if flrms make more information available to the public.

Lessons from the Social and Economic Impacts of the Mining Boom in the Bowen Basin 2004-2006

Abstract: The coal industry boom in Central Queensland's Bowen Basin has generated a number of positive economic and social impacts including increased employment, income and expenditure levels. The spike in international demand for coal since 2003 has resulted in an overlapping occurrence of an unprecedented number of new mine developments, expansion of existing mines, exploration activity and the construction of infrastructure to service the mining industry. However, positive economic impacts on smaller communities servicing the region have been limited by the use of non-resident workers, the impacts of 'Dutch Disease' on other industries and resources, and shortages in housing and infrastructure. The concerns are that local communities may be shouldering many of the costs of accommodating new developments while the benefits flow more broadly to regional and state centres. Lessons from the resource boom suggest that greater attention needs to be paid to housing supply, labour supply, information flows, project approvals, and the integration and interdependence of planning issues.

Understanding recent trends in house prices and homeownership

Abstract: This paper looks at a broad array of evidence concerning the recent boom in home prices, and considers what this means for future home prices and the economy. It does not appear possible to explain the boom in terms of fundamentals such as rents or construction costs. A psychological theory, that represents the boom as taking place because of a feedback mechanism or social epidemic that encourages a view of housing as an important investment opportunity, fits the evidence better.

Boom and Bust

Abstract: Biomedical facilities are expanding after a growth spurt in the budget of the National Institutes of Health. Yet individual scientists say that it9s harder than before to get their work funded. (Read more.)

Stock Market Booms and Monetary Policy in the Twentieth Century

Abstract: This article examines the association between stock market booms and monetary policy in the United States and nine other developed countries during the 20th century. The authors find, as was true of the U.S. stock market boom of 1994-2000, that booms typically arose during periods of above-average growth of real output and below-average inflation, suggesting that booms reflected both real macroeconomic phenomena and monetary policy. They find little evidence that booms were fueled by excessive liquidity. Booms often ended within a few months of an increase in inflation and consequent monetary policy tightening. They find few differences across the differ ent monetary policy regimes of the century. (JEL E300, E520, G180, N100, N200) Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisReview , March/April 2007,89 (2), pp. 91-122.

The macroeconomics of the Latin American economic boom

Abstract: This paper argues that the recent boom in the Latin Americaneconomies can be explained by the conjunction of two external factorsnot found together since the 1970s: strong commodity prices (more sofor hydrocarbons and mining products than for agricultural commodities);and exceptional external financing conditions. Concerning the latter, thekey development was the massive influx of capital during two periods of "exuberance" in international financial markets (between mid-2004 and April2006, and between mid-2006 and mid-2007);, particularly the second. It alsoargues for the importance of spreading and consolidating Latin America'stwo great (and complementary); macroeconomic policy innovations ofrecent years: countercyclical fiscal management (still confined to just a fewcountries); and active intervention in currency markets. Such interventionneeds to be based on a growing recognition that the real exchange rateought to be an explicit goal of macroeconomic policy.

A Model of Cross-Country House Prices

Abstract: The widespread nature of the recent international house price boom suggests that the underlying forces behind this sustained price increase may be common across countries. Many OECD countries have, over the past decade, witnessed sustained increases in living standards while housing affordability has further improved in recent years with the low interest rate environment experienced by many of these countries. In this paper we propose a theoretical model of house price determination that is driven by changes in income and interest rates. In particular, the current level of income and interest rates determine how much an individual can borrow from financial institutions to purchase housing and ultimately this is a key driver of house prices. The model is applied to a panel of 16 OECD countries from 1980 to 2005 using both single country-by-country and panel econometric approaches. Our results support the existence of a long-run relationship between actual house prices and the amount individuals can borrow and we find plausible and statistically significant adjustment, across countries, to this long run equilibrium.

Prospects for Commodity Exporters: Hunky Dory or Humpty Dumpty?

Abstract: Those low-income countries that export non-agricultural commodities are in the midst of a resource transfer. It is undoubtedly the biggest opportunity for transformative development that these societies have experienced, dwarfing both aid and previous commodity booms. To get it in proportion, in 2004 commodity exports from Sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 146 billion US dollars or 28 percent of the region’s GDP, while aid amounted to 5 percent of GDP. Compared with the boom of the 1970s many more countries are beneficiaries: the push to diversify sources of supply has resulted in exploitable discoveries in places that were previously political no-go areas. Further, whereas the boom of the 1970s was conjured up by the OPEC cartel, this one is grounded in Asian growth and so is intrinsically less precarious. In this paper we draw on a range of new research that provides a prognosis of prospects, a diagnostic of likely problems, and prescribes an agenda for international action. The paper is organized around these three objectives.

Automated control of boom and attachment for work vehicle

Abstract: A first sensor detects a boom angle of a boom with respect to a support. An attachment is coupled to the boom. A second cylinder is associated with the attachment. A second sensor detects an attachment angle of the attachment with respect to the boom. An accelerometer detects an acceleration or deceleration of the boom. A switch accepts a command to enter a ready position state from another position state. A controller controls the first hydraulic cylinder to attain a boom angle within the target boom angular range and for controlling the second cylinder to attain an attachment angle within the target attachment angular range associated with the ready position state in response to the command in conformity with at least one of a desired boom motion curve and a desired attachment motion curve.

Third-level education, foreign direct investment and economic boom in Ireland

Abstract: Ireland's dramatic economic boom of the 1990s has been referred to as 'the era of the Celtic Tiger'. In a little over a decade, real national income per head jumped from 65% of the Western European average to above parity, unemployment tumbled from double to less than half the European Union average and numbers at work increased by over 50%. Much research has been carried out on the impact of each of the separate elements agreed to have been important in stimulating or sustaining the boom. The present paper focuses on one key under-researched synergy – the nexus between the country's industrial strategy, which focused on attracting foreign direct investment in certain high-tech sectors, and the orientation of the third-level educational system that had been developed in Ireland over recent decades.

Prospects for Commodity Exporters

Abstract: Those low-income countries that export non-agricultural commodities are in the midst of a resource transfer. It is undoubtedly the biggest opportunity for transformative development that these societies have experienced, dwarfing both aid and previous commodity booms. To get it in proportion, in 2004 commodity exports from Sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 146 billion US dollars or 28 percent of the region’s GDP, while aid amounted to 5 percent of GDP. Compared with the boom of the 1970s many more countries are beneficiaries: the push to diversify sources of supply has resulted in exploitable discoveries in places that were previously political no-go areas. Further, whereas the boom of the 1970s was conjured up by the OPEC cartel, this one is grounded in Asian growth and so is intrinsically less precarious. In this paper, the authors draw on a range of new research that provides a prognosis of prospects, a diagnostic of likely problems, and prescribes an agenda for international action. The paper is organized around these three objectives.

Dynamic Coupling of the KC-135 Tanker and Boom for Modeling and Simulation

Abstract: Current Automated Aerial Refueling (AAR) research requires precision modeling and simulation of the refueling process between a KC-135 tanker aircraft and an unmanned aircraft. In order to meet this requirement, both steady-state and dynamic interactions between the tanker aircraft, the refueling boom, and the receiver aircraft must be accurately represented. Boom orientation and motion is known to change the trim of the tanker aircraft, which in turn influences the formation flying and station keeping tasks involved in current Air Force AAR concepts of operation. This paper describes the development of the coupled equations of motion for the refueling boom, which model its motion and its dynamic interactions with the tanker. For the purposes of this investigation, and to validate the boom model dynamics, the coupled boom model is first implemented as a boom-only simulation. The coupled model is compared to two existing boom-only models: one of which has been used for aerial refueling improvement studies, and the other is currently being used for boom operator training. Steady-state and dynamic responses to control inputs to the boom are calculated by the coupled boom model, then compared to those calculated using the existing models.

Fault detection and reconfiguration of an automated refueling boom

Abstract: A system for automated control of a refueling boom coupled to a tanker aircraft is provided. The system includes sensors such as electro-optical sensor or GPS sensors that provide measurements used by the system to automatically control the refueling boom so as to mate with a receiver aircraft. The system is configured to monitor the health of the sensors and to reconfigure itself if any of the sensor are faulty.

Third-Level Education, Foreign Direct Investment AndEconomic Boom in Ireland

Abstract: Ireland's dramatic economic boom of the 1990s has been referred to as "the era of the Celtic Tiger". In a little over a decade, real national income per head jumped from 65 percent of the Western European average to above parity, unemployment tumbled from double to less than half the European Union average and numbers at work increased by over 50 percent. Much research has been carried out on the impact of each of the separate elements agreed to have been important in stimulating or sustaining the boom. The present paper focuses on one key under-researched synergy - the nexus between the country's industrial strategy, which focused on attracting foreign direct investment in certain high-tech sectors, and the orientation of the third-level educational system that had been developed in Ireland over recent decades.

Contractile floating barriers for confinement and recuperation of oil slicks

Abstract: Marine oil spills can cause serious environmental damages to natural resources and to those whose sustenance depends upon these resources. Unfortunately experience shows that even the best efforts have not prevented occasional occurrences of major accidents on the sea. As long as massive oil spills are probable, special techniques and equipments will remain essential to facilitate spill cleanup in coastal regions. Oil spill containment booms are the most commonly adopted techniques to collect and contain oil on the sea surface, or to protect specific areas against slick spreading. Recently, an anti-pollution boom called the Cavalli system, has been designed with the intention of preventing the spread of spilled oil by trapping it inside a flexible floating reservoir and improving the pumping operation by decreasing the reservoir surface, and consequently increasing the oil layer thickness. Although flexible barriers have become increasingly common as a cleanup facility, there is no more than inadequate elaborate knowledge about their behavior. According to an extensive literature review, most of existing researches, either physical or numerical, have been done for rigid barriers. The main motivation for introducing the present research project is to study the efficiency and operational limits of the Cavalli system. However, the objectives are not constrained to this particular case. The present investigation focuses on the behavior of flexible barriers containing spilled oil. Previous researches of containment booms, even for the case of rigid barriers, have been mainly carried out in calm water. Accordingly, the main concentration is devoted to the response of a flexible barrier in presence of sea waves. Both experimental and numerical approaches were pursued to evaluate the efficiency limits and behavior of flexible barriers. Two-dimensional experiments have been carried out in a laboratory flume 6.5 m long, 1.2 m deep, and 12 cm wide. Flexible and rigid barriers containing rapeseed oil were examined, with and without waves. As the first step, the behavior of a flexible barrier in currents without waves was studied and compared to that of a rigid barrier. The key challenge was to contain the oil behind a flexible barrier that can freely deform in the water flow. This could be achieved using a slitted side skirt on the boom where it faces the lateral wall of the flume. The failure mode observed for rapeseed oil was entrainment failure. The initial failure velocity of different experimental conditions was studied and an empirical relationship was suggested in order to assess the maximum permissible oil-water relative velocity as a function of barrier draft and oil characteristics. The geometrical characteristics of the contained slick were examined and empirical equations were proposed to predict the slick length and headwave thickness as a function of contained oil volume. The second and more significant step was to conduct experiments with a flexible floating barrier in presence of five different waves. The analysis focused on the relationship between the failure velocity and the wave parameters with an emphasis on the behavior of flexible barriers. Likewise, empirical equations were proposed for the prediction of the initial failure velocity and geometrical characteristics of the slick. A type of drainage failure, namely, surging drainage was observed in the presence of waves. It was shown that the wave steepness and oil layer thickness are the dominant parameters in such failure. It was noticed that by decreasing the wave period or increasing the wave height, interfacial waves became more aggressive and consequently failure initiated at a lower velocity. Flexible barriers were more sensitive to the variations of wave characteristics. Applying appropriate time and length scales, a critical wave period of 6 s and wave height of 0.5 m were proposed for the prototype. Accurate measurements of velocity profiles and flow patterns in the vicinity of barriers with different conditions by means of Ultrasonic Velocimetry Profiling (UVP) and Large-Scale Particle Image Velocimetry (LSPIV) methods provided a reasonable understanding of the hydrodynamics in the vicinity of the barrier. The characteristics of the headwave at the upstream end of the oil slick were deliberately compared to those of a gravity current. It was concluded that despite geometrical similarities, these two phenomena are quite diverse. Furthermore, the oil-water interface was traced by detecting the maximum ultrasonic echo intensity, and velocity profiles in water and oil phases were independently obtained. To enhance the understanding of the mechanisms associated with oil containment failure, numerical simulations of multiphase flow were carried out using FLUENT code, applying the finite volume method (FVM). Comparisons between the obtained flow pattern and velocity field derived from numerical simulations and precise experimental measurements confirmed the capability of the numerical model to simulate the multiphase flow. The turbulence wake downstream of rigid and flexible barriers was simulated with and without the presence of oil phase. The simulations revealed the effect of contained oil on flow pattern and consequently the drag force acting on the barrier. Simulations of a full-scale barrier proposed a drag coefficient, Cd, of 1.90 for rigid barriers. Contrarily a constant value for the drag coefficient cannot be attributed to flexible barriers, since its deformations do not allow it to form similar shapes at different velocities. Last but not least, comparing the drag force on a rigid barrier with that of a flexible barrier towed by the same velocity demonstrated the fact that the forces acting on the skirt could be appreciably reduced by allowing flexibility.

Monetary Policy and Stock Market Booms and Busts in the 20 th Century

Abstract: This paper examines the association between monetary policy and stock market booms and busts in the United States, United Kingdom, and Germany during the 20th century. Booms tended to arise when output growth was rapid and inflation was low, and end within a few months of an increase in inflation and monetary policy tightening. Latent variable VAR analysis of post-war data finds that inflation has had a particularly strong impact on market conditions, with disinflation shocks moving the market toward a boom and positive inflation shocks moving the market toward a bust. We conclude that central banks can contribute to financial market stability by minimizing unanticipated changes in inflation.

America's Second Housing Boom

Abstract: The prime mortgage market largely fueled America's first housing burst after World War II. Low- and moderate-income households, largely excluded from this earlier movement, are getting swept into the second housing boom. This brief details how homeownership has again expanded, this time fueled by the development of the subprime market. Rising interest-payment burdens for many subprime borrowers, however, might mean delinquencies and foreclosures.

The performance of British manufacturing in the Post-War long boom

Abstract: This article questions the notion which has gained ground recently in the writing of Booth and others that British manufacturing did not fail in the post-Second World War long boom, 1950–1973. By all the traditional measures of performance – output growth rates, productivity growth rates and levels, exports, and profitability – it can be re-affirmed that British manufacturing was out-competed by her rivals. Booth, Broadberry and others have also argued that manufacturing is of less importance to economic growth than services; this too is questioned.

The Baby Boom in New Zealand and Other Western Developed Countries

Abstract: The Baby Boom was undoubtedly one of the more emblematic events of the twentieth century. As it was a distinctly demographic phenomenon, it has been dissected by some of the most distinguished of demographers. Yet its greatest influence is not in demography, but in fields like marketing, pop-psychology, and even gerontology: the Baby-Boomers rather than the generation currently at reproductive ages are blamed for structural ageing. This paper questions aspects of Baby-Boom mythology. It asks how it has been measured: a 'boom' suggests numerical volume, yet instead we measure flows. It questions whether the hegemonic model of the boom - the American one that has effectively delineated its parameters in Europe, Australasia and Japan, both among demographers and in the popular media - really does apply to other countries. It also asks whether or not Western Europe's limited surges in births really qualify as booms in the strict sense of the term. Finally, it raises questions more in the field of the sociology of knowledge: the way the Baby Boom mythology has spread often in the face of counterfactual evidence. This paper is a revised version of the Australian Population Association's 2006 Borrie Lecture.

Co-operative Control during Boom Air-to-Air Refuelling

Abstract: Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles are currently the focus of many research and development programmes. Operational requirements mean that it is likely that they will need to travel long distances and operate for prolonged periods of time thus necessitating air-to-air refueling, which is the basis for the work described within this paper. Current manned aircraft air-to-air refueling depends on tightly controlled, close formation flight and in the case of boom refueling the additional use of an operator on the tanker to manoeuvre the boom. The objective of the work reported here is to develop a realistic simulation model for the design and analysis of the control systems required for autonomous Air-to-Air refueling. Furthermore the objective is to exploit the benefits offered by autonomous control of both receiver and boom and thus increase safety and enable refueling in some adverse weather conditions and other situations which prohibit manned refueling. This paper describes the development of this simulation environment and presents simulation results for the fully coupled system involving cooperative control of both the unmanned receiver aircraft and the tanker boom.