Showing papers on "Climate change published in 1982"

Sensitivity of water resource systems to climate variation

Abstract: The problem of the response of water resource systems to climate variations is stated. The importance of the sensitivity of the systems to such variations is demonstrated with respect to the stationarity of the mean and the extremes. A definition of moderate climate variation is adopted. Results of deterministic modelling of the influence of such a variation on streamflow are reported, in extreme conditions of arid and humid basins. The results are used in modelling the influence of climate variations on reservoir storage systems. The model indicates a considerable amplification of the effect of climate change on runoff and storage and emphasizes the importance of studies of sensitivity of water resource systems to climate variation.

Solar, volcanic, and CO2 forcing of recent climatic changes

Abstract: The climate, as represented by the mean Northern Hemisphere temperature, has shown substantial changes within the past century. The temperature record is utilized as a means of elucidating the relative importance of anthropogenic CO2 increase, volcanic aerosols, and possible solar insolation variations in externally forcing climate changes. Solar luminosity variations, suggested by observed solar radius variations on an ≈ 80 yr time scale, allow a self-consistent explanation of the hemispheric temperature trends. Evidence for solar influences on the climate is also found on the shorter 11 and 22 yr time scales present in solar activity cycles.

Climate in Earth history

Abstract: Complex atmosphere-ocean-land interactions govern the climate system and its variations. During the course of Earth history, nature has performed a large number of experiments involving climatic change; the geologic record contains much information regarding these experiments. This information should result in an increased understanding of the climate system, including climatic stability and factors that perturb climate. In addition, the paleoclimatic record has been demonstrated to be useful in interpreting the origin of important resources-petroleum, natural gas, coal, phosphate deposits, and many others.

Carbon Dioxide and World Climate

Abstract: This article addresses three questions: (1) how much carbon dioxide will be added to the atmosphere in future years; (2) will it cause global temperature rise and climate changes in widespread regions; and (3) what are human societal consequences. The author concludes from data analysis that the fraction of carbon dioxide from anthropogenic sources remaining in the air will be almost constant, with a value ranging from 40 to 50 percent, until the peak rate of fossil-fuel consumption is passed which he predicts to be approximately 100 years, depending on future energy substitutions. He sees planning for amelioration of the slowly encroaching variations as the way to reap the most benefits from the climatic changes. (PSB)

The seasonal CO2 cycle on Mars: An application of an energy balance climate model

Abstract: Energy balance climate models of the Budyko-Sellers variety are applied to the carbon-dioxide cycle on Mars. Recent data available from the Viking mission, in particular the seasonal pressure variations measured by Viking landers, are used to constrain the models. No set of parameters was found for which a one-dimensional model parameterized in terms of ground temperature gave an adequate fit to the observed pressure variations. A modified, two-dimensional model including the effects of dust storms and the polar hood reasonably reproduces the pressure curve, however. The implications of these results for Martian climate changes are discussed.

Global carbon cycle and climate change

Abstract: Global climate and carbon cycle.- Biogeochemical carbon cycle in nature.- Surface ecosystems and carbon cycle.- Carbon cycle in the oceans modelling the interactive cycles of carbon and other chemical elements.- Modelling the global carbon cycle.

Optimal weighting of data to detect climatic change: Application to the carbon dioxide problem

Abstract: Increasing carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is expected to lead to warming of the surface of the earth. Detection of the warming is difficult because it must be distinguished from natural variability of temperatures due to daily weather changes. It is shown that a weighting of surface temperature data using information about the expected level of warming in different seasons and geographical regions and statistical information about the amount of natural variability in surface temperature can improve the chances of early detection of the warming. Surface temperature data are conventionally averaged over the surface of the earth, weighted according to the geographical area represented by the data. A preliminary analysis of the optimal weighting method suggests that it is 25% more effective in revealing a surface warming than the conventional weighting method, in the sense that 25% more data analyzed in the conventional way are needed to have the same chance of detecting the climatic warming. The possibility of detecting the warming in data already available is examined. A rough calculation suggests that the warming ought to have already been detected if the only sources of significant variability in surface temperature had time scales less than 1 year.

Detecting Climate Change

Abstract: The likelihood ratio of the data for a hypothesis of some change, relative to the hypothesis of no change, is a suitable statistical measure for the detection of climate change. Likelihood ratios calculated on the basis of Angell and Korshover's (1977) global mean temperature, updated through 1980, do not show convincing evidence of recent climate change. It is possible to calculate probabilities of obtaining future values of likelihood ratios, depending on the postulated future climate change. A modest but significant climate change, such as that expected to occur from an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide, is likely to be detected from global mean surface temperatures within ten years. The joint behavior of the troposphere and stratosphere is more likely to discriminate between climate change and no change than are surface temperatures. In this case, a climate change that can be attributed to carbon dioxide increase should be detectable by 1986.

Geomagnetic secular variation as a precursor of climatic change

Abstract: Long period trends in climate are usually associated with solar disturbance1. For example, a close similarity has been demonstrated2,3 between variations in the length of day (LOD) with periods greater than about 10 yr and trends in several climatic indices over the past 150 yr. We point out here a correlation between variations in the Earth's magnetic field, the Earth's rotation rate and some climatic indicators, thus suggesting a possible long term influence of core motions on climate. We suggest that geomagnetic secular variation can be used to forecast a climatic change in the 1990s.

The Climatic Environment of the Arctic Ocean

Abstract: This chapter first reviews briefly the physical basis of climate in the Arctic and the generation of the global wind and ocean circulations that transport heat, moisture and pollutants (including natural ones such as volcanic dust) towards the Arctic. Next, the variations of the temperature climate, and its implications on various time-scales for changes in the extent of the Arctic sea-ice, are explored. It is found that the regions between Greenland and Iceland in the west and the Barents and Kara Seas in the east and the surrounding lands, are the most sensitive regions (perhaps in the whole world) to climate changes, and register very strong responses to either warming or cooling. The variations in this sector of the Arctic may serve as a useful indicator of the current state of world climate.

The faint young sun-climate paradox - Volcanic influences

Abstract: It has been suggested that the early earth may have frozen over as a result of a fainter early sun (see Ulrich, 1975). If this had happened, climate models suggest the earth would have remained frozen through the present epoch and into the distant future. We suggest that volcanic influences could allow a passage from the frozen branch into the unfrozen branch of climate models should conditions on earth be suitable for the latter climate change. A broad equatorial belt of volcanic ash is one scenario which would allow a transfer from the frozen earth state into the unfrozen one.

On the intra‐annual variation in rainfall over the sub‐continent of southern Africa

Abstract: The variation in intra-annual variance in rainfall over Southern Africa is examined for evidence to support the contention that it has undergone a systematic upward change over the period 1921-1974. A principal components analysis on the data shows that the time series of intra-annual variances may be represented by four components. Although each of the four principal component time series possesses an oscillation in the region of the biennial wave, there is little evidence to suggest that the within-year variation in rainfall is undergoing any type of upward trend.

Volcanoes and climate

Abstract: The evidence that volcanic eruptions affect climate is reviewed. Single explosive volcanic eruptions cool the surface by about 0.3 C and warm the stratosphere by several degrees. Although these changes are of small magnitude, there have been several years in which these hemispheric average temperature changes were accompanied by severely abnormal weather. An example is 1816, the "year without summer" which followed the 1815 eruption of Tambora. In addition to statistical correlations between volcanoes and climate, a good theoretical understanding exists. The magnitude of the climatic changes anticipated following volcanic explosions agrees well with the observations. Volcanoes affect climate because volcanic particles in the atmosphere upset the balance between solar energy absorbed by the Earth and infrared energy emitted by the Earth. These interactions can be observed. The most important ejecta from volcanoes is not volcanic ash but sulfur dioxide which converts into sulfuric acid droplets in the stratosphere. For an eruption with its explosive magnitude, Mount St. Helens injected surprisingly little sulfur into the stratosphere. The amount of sulfuric acid formed is much smaller than that observed following significant eruptions and is too small to create major climatic shifts. However, the Mount St. Helens eruption has provided an opportunity to measure many properties of volcanic debris not previously measured and has therefore been of significant value in improving our knowledge of the relations between volcanic activity and climate.

Climate and History: Studies in Interdisciplinary History

Abstract: The idea that climatic change severe enough to affect human life may have occurred during historic times is still new among historians. Evidences of such changes have been derived by surprisingly diverse indirect routes: chemical analysis of stalactites from a cave in New Zealand, for example, and study of ocean bottom cores, bog pollen, tree rings, vintage and harvest dates, records of rivers freezing, and other such phenomena. What to make of such evidences, and how to translate observed variations into fluctuations of temperature and precipitation as measured today, remain controversial. The articles reprinted here from the Journal of Interdisciplinary History (spring 1980) contribute to that controversy and conveniently summarize what can be known and surmised about climate changes across past centuries. Two schools of thought emerge. Some bold spirits are prepared to suggest significant connections between climate and historic changes. Alexander Wilson, for instance, suggests that his analysis of

Climate Change and Human Behavior On The Southwest Coast of Ecuador

Abstract: Predictable and reliable agricultural production, industrial output, and, in general, environments that promote human well-being depend on climatic stability. But the prehistoric and historic record indicate that climate change is a recurring feature of the environment. In this paper the climate history of the southwest coast of Ecuador is presented and discussed in relation to its influence on prehistoric and contemporary human populations living in this region. A recent case of climate change during the year 1971 is described. Patterns of land use and water management described for prehistoric peoples continue to be followed by the current population. Understanding the history of human responses to climate change may be necessary in order to make rational decisions about how to adapt our behavior to future climates.

Carbon dioxide effects research and assessment program: environmental and societal consequences of a possible CO/sub 2/-induced climate change. Volume II, Part 3. Influence of short-term climate fluctuations on permafrost terrain

Abstract: This report discusses how climatic analyses, permafrost temperatures, and geomorphic processes might be used to interpret the influence of a CO/sub 2/ induced climate change on northern ecosystems It is based on a series of informal discussions amongst the authors and several specialists conducted over a period of several months in spring 1980, at the request of the Department of Energy - American Association for the Advancement of Science CO/sub 2/ Project The report concludes with a generalized research outline for documenting the cause and effect relationships discussed

The satellite power system - Assessment of the environmental impact on middle atmosphere composition and on climate

Abstract: Numerical models were developed to calculate the total deposition of watervapor, hydrogen, CO2, CO, SO2, and NO in the middle atmosphere from operation of heavy lift launch vehicles (HLLV) used to build a satellite solar power system (SPS). The effects of the contaminants were examined for their effects on the upper atmosphere. One- and two-dimensional models were formulated for the photochemistry of the upper atmosphere and for rocket plumes and reentry. An SPS scenario of 400 launches per year for 10 yr was considered. The build-up of the contaminants in the atmosphere was projected to have no significant effects, even at the launch latitude. Neither would there by any dangerous ozone depletion. It was found that H, OH, and HO2 species would double in the thermosphere. No measurable changes in climate were foreseen.

Climatic System, Climatic Change and the Carbon Effect

Abstract: Climate is produced by the physical and chemical processes acting in the atmosphere-hydrosphere-cryosphere-biosphere-geosphere system some external forcing mechanisms as e.g. solar irradiation included. This climatic system or an actual climatic state can be described by statistics derived from directly measured or proxy data.