Showing papers on "Commodity published in 2022"

Mineral commodity summaries 2022

Abstract: First posted January 31, 2022 For additional information, contact: Director, National Minerals Information CenterU.S. Geological Survey12201 Sunrise Valley Drive988 National CenterReston, VA 20192Email: nmicrecordsmgt@usgs.gov Each mineral commodity chapter of the 2022 edition of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Commodity Summaries (MCS) includes information on events, trends, and issues for each mineral commodity as well as discussions and tabular presentations on domestic industry structure, Government programs, tariffs, 5-year salient statistics, and world production, reserves, and resources. The MCS is the earliest comprehensive source of 2021 mineral production data for the world. More than 90 individual minerals and materials are covered by 2-page synopses.For mineral commodities for which there is a Government stockpile, detailed information concerning the stockpile status is included in the 2-page synopsis.Abbreviations and units of measure and definitions of selected terms used in the report are in Appendix A and Appendix B, respectively. Reserves and resources information is in Appendix C, which includes “Part A—Resource and Reserve Classification for Minerals” and “Part B—Sources of Reserves Data.” A directory of USGS minerals information country specialists and their responsibilities is in Appendix D.The USGS continually strives to improve the value of its publications to users. Constructive comments and suggestions by readers of the MCS 2022 are welcomed.

Has global agricultural trade been resilient under coronavirus (COVID-19)? Findings from an econometric assessment of 2020

Abstract: Global agricultural trade, which increased at the end of 2020, has been described as “resilient” to the impacts of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic; however, the size and channels of its quantitative impacts are not clear. Using a reduced-form, gravity-based econometric model for monthly trade, we estimate the effects of COVID-19 incidence rates, policy restrictions imposed by governments to curb the outbreak, and the de facto reduction in human mobility/lockdown effect on global agricultural trade through the end of 2020. We find that while agricultural trade remained quite stable through the pandemic, the sector as a whole did not go unscathed. First, we estimate that COVID-19 reduced agricultural trade by the approximate range of 5 to 10 percent at the aggregate sector level; a quantified impact two to three times smaller in magnitude than our estimated impact on trade occurring in the non-agricultural sector. Second, we find sharp differences across individual commodities. In particular, we find that non-food items (hides and skins, ethanol, cotton, and other commodities), meat products including seafood, and higher value agri-food products were most severely impacted by the pandemic; however, the COVID-19 trade effect for the majority of food and bulk agricultural commodity sectors were found to be insignificant, or in a few cases, positive. Finally, we also examine the effects across low vs high income countries, the changing dynamics of the pandemic’s effect on trade flows, and the effects along the extensive product margins of trade.

COVID-19 induced lockdown effects on agricultural commodity prices and consumer behaviour in India – Implications for food loss and waste management

Abstract: Distortion in distribution and consumption of agricultural commodities is a result of disruptive shocks in prices and food value chains leading to a significant food loss as well as waste. We investigated the COVID-19 induced lockdown effects in India through an interrupted time series analysis coupled with a survey result of 729 consumers, 225 farmers and synthesis of the literature evidence on food loss as well as food waste. Our article complements the literature inventory on COVID-19 by estimating and tracking the effects on prices and consumer behaviour apart from discussing the implications for food loss and waste. Prices post-lockdown shot up immediately and significantly for chickpea (4.8%), mung bean (5.2%), and tomato (78.2%) corroborating the loss in highly perishable product – tomato – owing to its spiked price. We find no structural break in prices due to lockdown implying that lockdown-induced price change was not sufficient to alter the long-run price movement, and the prices of the major commodities reverted to the pre-lockdown levels. The pandemic induced lockdown did restrict the access to food markets and a majority of consumers (75.31%) experienced a price increase across COVID zones of different intensity of incidence leading to food loss along supply chain and wastage at consumers end. Consumers’ livelihood affected from moderate (59.53%) to severe (3.3%) with 92 per cent reporting a change in shopping behavior. The Kruskal-Wallis test on consumption behavior change indicated a significant shift among the consumers reporting altered income, mostly in the downside, post-lockdown. Despite the relaxation for agricultural related activities during the lockdown, farmers reported disruption in disposing their winter produce barring wheat, bolstered by a record state procurement in 2020. The paper affirms that the pandemic has caused a significant price change and unprecedented panic purchase that led to the food wastage but subsided soon exhibiting the resilience in Indian agriculture. We strongly recommend for promoting the capacity and collective resilience of small-scale production systems through institutions, policies and reforms. Contract farming, farmer producer organizations, creation and functioning of social safety nets to overcome income, production and price shocks, access to digital national markets and capacity building on food waste management practices will insulate vulnerable section as well as reduce the loss of food across supply chain.

Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on food prices: Evidence from storable and perishable commodities in India

Abstract: The supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 outbreak have led to changes in food prices globally. The impact of COVID-19 on the price of essential and perishable food items in developing and emerging economies has been lacking. Using a recent phone survey by the World Bank, this study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the prices of the three essential food items in India. The results indicate that price of basic food items such as atta (wheat flour) and rice increased significantly during the pandemic compared to the pre-pandemic period. In contrast, during the same period, the price of onions declined significantly. The findings may suggest panic-buying, hoarding, and storability of food items. The results further reveal that remittance income and cash transfers from the government negatively affected commodity prices. Thus, this study’s findings suggest that families may have shifted the demand away from essential foods during the pandemic.

Forecasting Agricultural Commodity Prices Using Dual Input Attention LSTM

Abstract: Fluctuations in agricultural commodity prices affect the supply and demand of agricultural commodities and have a significant impact on consumers. Accurate prediction of agricultural commodity prices would facilitate the reduction of risk caused by price fluctuations. This paper proposes a model called the dual input attention long short-term memory (DIA-LSTM) for the efficient prediction of agricultural commodity prices. DIA-LSTM is trained using various variables that affect the price of agricultural commodities, such as meteorological data, and trading volume data, and can identify the feature correlation and temporal relationships of multivariate time series input data. Further, whereas conventional models predominantly focus on the static main production area (which is selected for each agricultural commodity beforehand based on statistical data), DIA-LSTM utilizes the dynamic main production area (which is selected based on the production of agricultural commodities in each region). To evaluate DIA-LSTM, it was applied to the monthly price prediction of cabbage and radish in the South Korean market. Using meteorological information for the dynamic main production area, it achieved 2.8% to 5.5% lower mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) than that of the conventional model that uses meteorological information for the static main production area. Furthermore, it achieved 1.41% to 4.26% lower MAPE than that of benchmark models. Thus, it provides a new idea for agricultural commodity price forecasting and has the potential to stabilize the supply and demand of agricultural products.

Addressing indirect sourcing in zero deforestation commodity supply chains

Abstract: The trade in agricultural commodities is a backbone of the global economy but is a major cause of negative social and environmental impacts, not least deforestation. Commodity traders are key actors in efforts to eliminate deforestation-they are active in the regions where commodities are produced and represent a "pinch point" in global trade that provides a powerful lever for change. However, the procurement strategies of traders remain opaque. Here, we catalog traders' sourcing across four sectors with high rates of commodity-driven deforestation: South American soy, cocoa from Côte d'Ivoire, Indonesian palm oil, and Brazilian live cattle exports. We show that traders often source more than 40% of commodities "indirectly" via local intermediaries and that indirect sourcing is a major blind spot for sustainable sourcing initiatives. To eliminate deforestation, indirect sourcing must be included in sectoral initiatives, and landscape or jurisdictional approaches, which internalize indirect sourcing, must be scaled up.

Mining and Metallurgical Waste as Potential Secondary Sources of Metals—A Case Study for the West Balkan Region

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to present a chemical composition and quantities of mining and processing waste landfills material developed during historical mining and smelting. After detailed inspection, it was found that approximately 2.6 gigatons of the waste had been deposited at 1650 sites, covering almost 65 km2. More than half of this material, 55%, is characterized as conventional mining waste, 37% belongs to the processing tailings, and 8% to metallurgical waste. Most of these tailing sites are unclaimed, presenting a source of contamination for nearby communities. According to the literature data collected and additional chemical analyses, in accordance with zero-waste philosophy, about 42 promising locations (c. 270 million tons) could be selected, where various advanced eco-innovative methods of recovery could possibly apply. The areas with the highest prospective recovery are Serbia and Kosovo. In accordance with the metal prices achieved in March 2022, it is estimated that the recovery of tailings could bring up to 18,100 million USD, which is much more compared to the prices of March 2020—10,600 million USD—when the commodity market was governed by the COVID-19 restrictions. In addition to the commercial value of the metals, the environmental aspect should not be forgotten after the application of reuse and recycling concepts.

Retail prices of nutritious food rose more in countries with higher COVID-19 case counts

Abstract: Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has curtailed lives and livelihoods, leading to price spikes for some foods and declines for others. We compare monthly retail food prices in up to 181 countries from January 2019 to June 2021, test for differences over time and find that average prices rose significantly, especially for more nutritious food groups in countries with higher COVID-19 case counts. Analysis of retail prices by food group complements data on farm commodity prices and overall consumer price indexes, helping to guide policy for resilience and response to shocks.

Alcohol: No Ordinary Commodity

Abstract: Abstract This book is about alcohol policy: why it is needed, how it is made, and the impact it has on health and well-being. It is written for both policymakers and alcohol scientists, as well as the many other people interested in bridging the gap between research and policy. It begins with a global review of epidemiological evidence showing why alcohol is not an ordinary commodity, and it ends with the conclusion that alcohol policies implemented within a public health agenda are needed to reduce the enormous burden of harm it causes. The core of the book is a critical review of the cumulative scientific evidence in seven general areas of alcohol policy: pricing and taxation; regulating the physical availability of alcohol; modifying the environment in which drinking occurs; drink-driving countermeasures; marketing restrictions; primary prevention programmes in schools and other settings; and treatment and early intervention services. The final chapters discuss the current state of alcohol policy in different parts of the world, the detrimental role of the alcohol industry, and the need for both national and global alcohol policies that are evidence-based, effective, and coordinated. This book shows that opportunities for evidence-based alcohol policies that better serve the public good are clearer than ever before, as a result of accumulating knowledge on which strategies work best.

Asymmetric, time and frequency-based spillover transmission in financial and commodity markets

Abstract: The study examines asymmetric, time and frequency-based spillover transmission in financial and commodity markets by employing the VAR-based generalized forecast error variance decomposition framework. Daily prices of S&P-500 and the US Dollar- Euro exchange rate representing the financial markets and WTI, gold, silver, copper, corn and soybean representing the commodity markets for the period ranging from January 6, 2006 to February 25, 2021 are used. The empirical results show that aggregate spillover transmission in financial and commodity markets exhibit asymmetry as downside spillovers dominate upside spillovers. The time-varying spillover asymmetry plot shows that there is a domination of downside spillovers only during crisis events, such as the Global Financial Crisis, the European Debt Crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. The cross-spillover measures reveal that the inclusion of distinct asset classes, such as corn and soybean with S&P-500 has the potential to reduce the risk associated with the portfolio due to lower cross-spillovers between them. The time and frequency-based spillover transmission results indicate that overall spillovers in financial and commodity markets increase during uncertain market conditions and are mostly driven by shorter horizons. The findings are helpful to various financial market participants and the regulatory authorities.