Showing papers on "Fertility published in 1983"

On kinship structure, female autonomy, and demographic behavior in India.

Abstract: The main states of India are broadly grouped into 2 demographic regimes. In contrast to states in the north southern states are characterized by lower marital fertility later age at marriage lower infant and child mortality and comparatively low ratios of female to male infant and child mortality. The division between the 2 regimes broadly coincides with the division areas of northern kinship/low female autonomy and southern kinship/high female autonomy. The analysis suggests that family social status is probably the most important element in comprehending Indias demographic situation. Women in the south tend to be more active in the labor force are more likely to take innovative action in adopting fertility control and are more apt to utilize health services for themselves and their children. Changes in India are also compared to those other South Asian countries. (authors modified) (summaries in ENG FRE SPA)

An analysis of malaria in pregnancy in Africa.

Abstract: This article summarizes information and specific evidence regarding the epidemiology of malaria in pregnancy in Africa. Malaria infection is more frequent and severe in primigravidae both during pregnancy and at the time of delivery. A study of pregnant women living under holoendemic conditions in western Kenya showed that the peak prevalence of infection in primigravidae (85.7%) and multigravidae (51.7%) occurred at 13-16 weeks gestation. There were a similar number of recoveries in both groups during the 2nd and 3rd trimesters. The loss of immunity in early pregnancy was equivalent to an 11-fold decrease in the rate of recovery from infection. The recovery seen in late pregnancy suggests that the women mount a satisfactory immune response to malaria infection reacquiring their prepregnancy immune status at about the time of delivery. The pattern of infection in pregnancy is comparable to that observed in infants and children. What the child achieves over several years the mother reachieves in 9 months; the pattern is repeated in successive pregnancies. The practical implications of this pattern of malaria in pregnancy are discussed. (authors modified)

Fertility, Biology, and Behavior: An Analysis of the Proximate Determinants

Abstract: Fertility, Biology, and Behavior: An Analysis of the Proximate Determinants presents the proximate determinants of natural fertility. This book discusses the biological and behavioral dimensions of human fertility that are linked to intermediate fertility variables. Organized into nine chapters, this book begins with an overview of the mechanisms through which socioeconomic variables influence fertility. This text then examines the absolute and relative age-specific marital fertility rates of selected populations. Other chapters consider the trends in total fertility rates of selected countries, including Colombia, Kenya, Korea, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, France, and United States. This book discusses as well the effects of deliberate marital fertility control through contraception and induced abortion. The final chapter deals with the management of sex composition and implications for birth spacing. This book is a valuable resource for reproductive physiologists, social scientists, demographers, statisticians, biologists, and graduate students with an interest in the biological and behavioral control of human fertility.

Fertility, Biology, and Behavior: An Analysis of the Proximate Determinants.

Abstract: Fertility, Biology, and Behavior: An Analysis of the Proximate Determinants presents the proximate determinants of natural fertility. This book discusses the biological and behavioral dimensions of human fertility that are linked to intermediate fertility variables. Organized into nine chapters, this book begins with an overview of the mechanisms through which socioeconomic variables influence fertility. This text then examines the absolute and relative age-specific marital fertility rates of selected populations. Other chapters consider the trends in total fertility rates of selected countries, including Colombia, Kenya, Korea, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, France, and United States. This book discusses as well the effects of deliberate marital fertility control through contraception and induced abortion. The final chapter deals with the management of sex composition and implications for birth spacing. This book is a valuable resource for reproductive physiologists, social scientists, demographers, statisticians, biologists, and graduate students with an interest in the biological and behavioral control of human fertility.

Fertility as an Adjustment to Risk

Abstract: A curious myopia characterizes recent research on the value of children and its relation to fertility levels and trends in rural areas of developing countries By this I mean that disproportionate theoretical and empirical attention is devoted to the costs and benefits of children to parents while the children are young The underlying presumption is that positive discount rates pertain (giving greater weight to near-term costs and benefits than to more distant streams) Attention is directed to the time and commodity costs of child care and the labor contributions of young children to their parents' household Change in these parameters dominates scholarly perceptions of change in the demand for children over the course of economic development This myopia is evident in the recent National Academy of Sciences report on the determinants of fertility in developing countries ' Consider, for example, the following passage from the summary chapter on demand for children by Lee and Bulatao:

Infertility in sub-Saharan Africa: estimates and implications.

Abstract: Anticipated future increases in the rates of growth of African populations would be heightened by declines in the levels of infertility. Infertility accounts for 60 percent of variation in total fertility and is associated with a loss of one child per woman on average in 18 sub-Saharan countries with relevant data. The single major cause of infertility in these countries in all probability is gonorrhea through tubal infection and occlusion in women. Failure to address the problem of infertility in the near term can ultimately delay Africas fertility transition because uncertainty in childbearing inhibits response to intrinsic and extrinsic pressures to reduce fertility goals. (authors)

Living longer in the United States: demographic changes and health needs of the elderly.

Abstract: An examination of the demographic consequences of assumptions of declining mortality and slightly increasing fertility in the United States over the next 60 years is presented. The focus is on the implications of these changes with regard to health status use of health services and expenditures for health care. The authors suggest that recent trends in mortality fertility and immigration imply that by 2040 over 20 percent of the population will be over age 65. The inadequacy of current public programs to serve the aged is stressed. (ANNOTATION)

Has the fertility of Danish men declined through the years in terms of semen quality? A comparison of semen qualities between 1952 and 1972.

Abstract: The semen analysis of 1,077 men examined in 1952 was compared with the semen analysis of 1,000 men examined in 1972 in order to assess if fertility in Danish men has declined during the period. The men on both occasions were examined because of a fertility problem. In 1952 6.2% of the men had azoospermia compared with 3.9% in 1972 (P less than 0.05). Between 1952 and 1972 there was a fall in sperm count (P less than 0.01, median 73.4, and 54.5 mill/ml), a deterioration in spermatozoa motility (P less than 0.001), an increase in number of abnormal spermatozoa (P less than 0.01, median 26.0%, and 44.8%), and a deterioration in fertility class according to the Hammen system (P less than 0.001). Semen volume and number of immobile spermatozoa did not change. This study of Danish men, like studies from other industrialized countries, indicates a fall in semen quality and male fertility since the early fifties.

Marriage, sex, and the first birth interval: the quiet revolution in Asia.

Abstract: The authors argue that under certain conditions changes in coital frequency do influence fertility. The evidence they present is indirect based on trends in early marital fertility in Korea Malaysia and Taiwan. They offer standard sociodemographic explanations for these trends including later age at marriage improved levels of nutrition and changes in breastfeeding and contraceptive practices and find them wanting for various reasons. The biometric literature is used to show that the effect of coital frequency on the increase in early marital conceptions is plausible; ethnographic illustrations suggest that the movement from the traditionally arranged to the romantically arranged marriage is largely responsible for greater coital frequency. They conclude that a very quiet sexual revolution has been occurring in Asia perhaps more far reaching and profound than the very vocal sexual revolution that has been occurring in the West. The increases in early marital conceptions have been 3 fold or more in some instances. From a broader perspective this paper argues that coital frequency an intermediate variable that has been virtually ignored by demographers can and does have an effect on the pace and level of fertility. The biometric evidence for this effect has been known for some time but heretofore actual behavioral examples have been lacking. The paper further emphasizes the multifaceted nature of the contemporary fertility transitions occurring in the developed world. Differences in coital frequency are very likely a component of differences in levels of natural fertility that have existed and thus not all of the changes taking place lead to lower levels of fertility. The modernizing forces leading to higher rates of coital frequency are in fact leading to higher fertility levels. The aspect of marriage having primary demographic importance is sexual activity--when sexual activity starts when it ends and coital frequency during a sexual union. (summaries in FRE SPA)

The growth of population in eighteenth-century england: a conundrum resolved

Abstract: The reasons behind the rapid growth of the population of England in the eighteenth century in comparison with the rest of Europe are explored. Using data compiled from over 400 parish registers by the Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure the author shows that life expectancy increased from around 32.4 years in the 1670s and 1680s to around 38.7 years in the 1810s and 1820s. Over the same period fertility as measured by the gross reproduction rate rose from 1.98 to 2.94. The author calculates that the rise in fertility contributed about two-and-a-half times as much to the rise in population growth rates as did the decline in mortality. It is suggested that the primary cause of this fertility increase is to be found in changes in the timing and incidence of marriage. Factors affecting marriage patterns are then discussed.

Abdominal myomectomy and subsequent fertility

Abstract: The role of myomectomy in subsequent fertility was evaluated. Of 50 patients undergoing myomectomy, 25 subsequently conceived. The most important correlation with subsequent fertility was surgical indication, 68 per cent of the women who underwent exploration for a pelvic mass having conceived, whereas only 16 per cent of women with a normal infertility evaluation conceived. In addition, women more than 30 years of age who became pregnant had fewer and smaller fibroid tumors than those who did not. It is concluded that myomectomy itself may decrease fertility, probably on the basis of adhesion formation and may be unjustified in women with otherwise negative infertility evaluations.

Consumer demand and household production: the relationship between fertility and child mortality.

Abstract: Forces which link biological and behavioral factors to infant mortality and fertility in the United States are examined. Estimates can be arrived at if all of the important types of behavior affecting infant survival prices and income constraints facing households are diligently gathered. Using equations to determine the relationship between a family health endowment index in conjunction with a childs health information about optimal prenatal and postnatal behavior can be estimated and observed. This estimate which is strongly a factor of parental and environmental health related factors attempts to characterize the biological effects of parents behavior on birthweight gestation and the rate of fetal growth. Another estimate presented is one which establishes a link between biological effects of birth order on infant mortality. In this analysis factors such as medical care during pregnancy mothers rate of smoking mothers age duration of breastfeeding mothers race and childs sex were included. Household socioeconomic and health data were also estimated in order to understand state and county ability to provide adequate health facilities for pre and postnatal maternal care. In particular results suggest that child mortality declines in developed countries and that mothers seek prenatal medical care in early stages of their pregnancy when risk is anticipated. Further study of the differential pattern of black and white fertility behavior in regard to seeking medical care is warranted.

Old age pensions and fertility in rural areas of less developed countries: some evidence from Mexico.

Abstract: This paper reviews the theoretical relationship between old age pensions and human fertility and offers preliminary evidence from Mexico on the direction and magnitude of the effect on fertility of the introduction of a formal old-age pension system. The security motive is an untested but plausible hypothesis especially for rural areas where alternative methods for caring for the elderly if they exist are likely to be relatively risky and unprofitable. A number of different effects can theoretically be expected following introduction of a system of old age pensions in such areas including a savings-reduction effect and life-cycle effects such as effects on the time-phasing of labor force participation and of consumption and effects on family fragmentation and intergenerational transfers and on the sex composition of the labor force and the allocation of family resources between the sexes. Information costs uncertainties about various aspects of the social security system and the possibility of differences between desired and actual fertility must also be considered. Given the long list of possible effects and offsetting influences and uncertainties about the magnitudes of such effects the actual outcome can only be resolved empirically. Data on sugar cane workers who began to be covered by a social security system in 1963 in 34 contiguous rural municipalities in the Papaloapan River Basin in southeastern Mexico were used to test the relationship. A regression analysis of the determinants of change in the child-woman ratios in the 34 municipalities from 1960-70 indicated among other findings that the proxy used for the influence of participation in an old age pension system had a significantly negative effect on fertility. An increase in social security participation from 0 to 50% would appear to reduce the child-woman ratio by more than 1/10. Despite the simplicity of the testing procedure shortcomings in the available data and the possibility of specification bias the results indicate that the security motive may be important and requires further empirical and theoretical research.

Income and Other Factors Influencing Fertility in China

Abstract: China has achieved remarkable success in increasing life expectancy and reducing fertility. There is no question that much of this success is due to concerted government efforts. Low fertility is in part the outcome of government efforts to raise age at marriage, to provide free contraceptives and abortion, to use local birth quotas and peer pressure to discourage pregnancy, and, increasingl, to provide economic incentives and disincentives. The paper presents evidence, however, that government programs, although important, have not operated in a vacuum. It has data on rates of population increase for the 29 administrative regions of China and on income and other socioeconomic indicators for those regions. It also has data on yearly vital rates since 1972 by prefecture for one province, and income data and vital rate data (the latter for two seperate years) by county for another. These data allows the paper to considerations of several important questions regarding future population policy in China. The paper's principal concern is whether future economic growth and liberalization can be expected to reinforce government programs to reduce fertility, or whether these developments might weaken policies that have contributed to an already low level of fertility.

The demand for children: a critical essay.

Abstract: An overview of factors influencing the demand for children is presented. The demand for children refers to the number of surviving children a couple or household wants to have regardless of how many they are capable of having and what difficulties they may have in controlling fertility. The demand for children as represented by family-size desires is a sensible concept in many developing countries. There are 2 broad interpretations of the effect of modernization on fertility. Modernization may make latent demand effective. However modernization may reduce the demand for children. This has been the core of the transition theory. Changes in child worth during modernization are a key element in many fertility transition theories. Under the most favorable conditions the net expected value of an average birth through the time the child leaves home is roughly zero or perhaps slightly positive. Each additional child not only supplies labor after a certain age but also requires labor for child care. Fertility decisions are made by the husband or a member of the older generation who also allocates the familys resources. Child worth as insurance against risk or as investment in old age security depends on whether alternatives are available. The introduction of government-backed pension systems or commercial insurance schemes could reduce child worth. Attitudinal surveys of child worth indicate that in each of the high-fertility developing countries many couples view instrumental contributions as a main reason for having children. Child costs and benefits affect demand and actual fertility though the effects on fertility might be explained by supply or regulation cost factors. There is a variation in time costs. Time costs are discussed from the point of view of modernization and the demand for children. Personal preferences for children must be taken into account. Income wealth and fertility have a role in the framework.

Preferences for the sex of children and their influence on reproductive behaviour

Abstract: This report draws on World Fertility Survey (WFS) data from 28 developing countries to analyze preferences for the sex of children and the relationship between family composition and reproductive behavior. Respondents were questioned on their preference for the sex of the next child personal desire to stop childbearing current use of contraception and recent fertility. A stated preference for sons is far from universal in these countries and there tends to be a desire for at least 1 daughter. Strong son preference was noted in Pakistan Nepal Bangladesh Korea Syria and Jordan. Venezuela and Jamaica exhibited a preference for daughters. 8 countries showed moderate son preference and the others indicated no preference. Despite the very strong son preference in the Arab region little or no effect of family composition on contraception or on fertility was observed for Syria or Jordan. However in Nepal and Pakistan a lack of sons generates higher fertility. This effect may increase as birth control becomes more prevalent. Only Korea and Malaysia provide evidence that a desire for sons sustains an appreciably higher level of fertility than would otherwise be the case. A balanced family composition is generally more conducive to contraceptive practice and the desire to stop childbearing but the importance of son preference worldwide may be greater than this survey indicates due to its exclusion of China and India.

Sex of previous children and intentions for further births in the united states, 1965-1976

Abstract: The research reported herein, using samples of women interviewed in the 1965 and 1970 National Fertility Studies and the 1976 National Survey of Family Growth, shows that the sex of women's previous children has an effect on their subsequent fertility intentions which differs at each parity. The persistence of that effect among women with two children in particular argues strongly for including sex of previous children as an independent variable in models of fertility intentions, since the decline in family size norms makes factors which affect the decision to have (or not have) a third child increasingly important.

Population dynamics based on birth intervals and parity progression.

Abstract: The Chinese population policy of ‘later-longer-fewer’ suggests a formulation of population dynamics in terms of birth intervals and parity progression This leads to population projections based on birth interval distributions and parity progression ratios and to an alternative to Lotka's stable population theory in which age is replaced by parity and interval since last birth A numerical comparison with Lotka's model indicates similarities and differences between the two approaches: The formulation suggests an approach to the analysis of birth interval and parity progression statistics that effectively solves censoring and selection problems

The demographic evidence for the incidence and cause of abnormally low fertility in tropical Africa.

Abstract: This paper documents and seeks the causes of the abnormally low fertility observed in much of Central Africa. Demographic ethnographic historical and other evidence suggests that some form of venereal disease probably gonorrhea is the main cause of both primary and secondary sterility with cultural factors playing an important role. Oral tradition and evidence from demographic models indicate that sterility in Central Africa probably dates back no further than 100 years. Sterility is not related to the general level of health frequency of infection lack of medical care or other indices of morbidity or mortality. Primary sterility is ethnic-specific and appears to be related to different attitudes toward adolescent sexual permissiveness. Secondary infertility is much more common. Most of Central Africa has a social tradition of prolonged female postpartum sexual abstinence during breastfeeding. This encourages men to go to prostitutes. The fact that secondary sterility is much more common than primary sterility suggests that sterility resulting from congenital venereal diseases is of little importance. The decline of sterility in the Belgian Congo after 1945 following a public health campaign based on penicillin indicated that sterility could be prevented but not reversed. The same pathogen may be responsible for high rates of primary sterility in some ethnic groups and substantial rates of secondary sterility in others depending on the age at which females are 1st exposed.

Do couples make fertility plans one birth at a time

Abstract: Criteria are specified for distinguishing one-decision from sequential-decision models of fertility. Sequential decisions are not demonstrated by parity-specific differences in fertility determinants. Sequential models must demonstrate the importance of unanticipated intervening events in changing fertility plans or fertility experience. They must demonstrate that the intervening events are not caused by the fertility. Two empirical tests are designed to determine which model best fits the data. One test predicts fertility plans, the other fertility events. Both tests provide some support for sequential models.

Migration and fertility in peninsular Malaysia: an analysis using life history data.

Abstract: Report on a study seeking to distinguish cause and effect in the statistical association between migration and fertility using data from the 1976-1977 Malaysian Family Life Survey. The strongest and most consistent findings support the hypothesis that migration is disruptive to fertility; nonmigrants had the highest fertility rates and multiple migrant women had the low fertility rates particularly when duration of residence is considered. Adaptation to fertility norms at destination occurs with increasing length of residence. However women of lower parity are more likely to migrate. Women who moved between 2 specified events e.g. marriage and 1st birth or births of specific parity experienced a longer interval between the events. Women who moved both between the ages of 20 and 29 and between the ages of 30 and 39 exhibit lower fertility than those who moved only during 1 of these age periods. That cultural factors and the rural or urban character of the migrants places of origin and destination are important is evinced by comparing the 3 major ethnic groups of Malaysia: for the Malays only urban to urban movement is associated with lower fertility; while for the Chinese rural to urban movement is associated with lower fertility; but for the Indians rural to urban movement is associated with higher fertility. Geographic mobility therefore is likely to have some effect on overall fertility levels but its extent will depend on the relative number of migrating women their ethnic background the point in their reproductive cycle at which they move and the rural/urban character of their places of origin and destination. Given the complexity of all these factors no clear set of policy implications emerges.