Showing papers on "Futures studies published in 2007"
TL;DR: In this article, the authors review the state of the art associated with scenarios and scenario analysis, and describe two areas where scenario analysis could be particularly helpful in EIA: (a) defining future developments for cumulative effects assessment; and (b) in considering the influence of contextual change on impact forecasts for specific projects.
286 citations
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TL;DR: The authors developed a topology of storytelling about the future, which is used to develop a definition of futures literacy. But the definition of future literacy was not defined in this paper. And they also developed a hybrid strategic scenario method for acquiring the capacities of future storytelling.
Abstract: What stories do we tell about the future? This article develops a topology of storytelling about the future, which is used to develop a definition of ‘futures literacy’ It goes on to outline a hybrid strategic scenario method for acquiring the capacities of futures literacy
182 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors describe the application of a novel foresight methodology, which combined participatory scenario development, using a backcasting approach, with an expert-stakeholder multi-criteria mapping (MCM) process, in order to provide an integrated, transparent assessment of the environmental, social and economic sustainability of six possible future hydrogen energy systems for the UK.
143 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors look at the growing interest in exploring alternative futures and in particular at the need for a futures perspective in education and the ways in which educators are responding to this and at the concerns expressed by young people themselves about the future.
Abstract: This paper looks at the growing interest in exploring alternative futures and in particular at the need for a futures perspective in education It looks at the ways in which educators are responding to this and at the concerns expressed by young people themselves about the future The value of a futures perspective in work exploring issues of environment and sustainability, whether in local or global contexts, is stressed
115 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a collaborative foresight method called RPM Screening is proposed for the generation, revision, multi-criteria evaluation, and portfolio analysis of innovation ideas, based on complementary evolutionary perspectives.
114 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors describe the emergence of environmental management lock-in as a path dependent evolution occurring within the context of the larger quality management paradigm and argue that the coevolutionary mechanisms that generate increasing returns for physical technologies may also be applied to social technologies, such as management systems.
Abstract: The paper broadens the scope of environmental management system (EMS) research by describing how EMSs can contribute to inertia in present production systems. In conjunction with other factors this inertia can inhibit dramatic shifts toward more sustainable technologies and systems. Our approach builds upon technological lockin theory, which focuses on market coordination and technological interdependencies as generators of inertia in technological systems. Building on this framework, we call attention to previously under appreciated non-market social forces and institutional structures that can further reinforce lock-in. We argue that the co-evolutionary mechanisms that generate increasing returns for physical technologies may also be applied to social technologies, such as management systems. The paper describes the emergence of ‘EMS lock-in’ as a path dependent evolution occurring within the context of the larger quality management paradigm. While EMS may initially produce improvements in environmental performance, EMS may also constrain organizational focus to the exploitation of present production systems, rather than exploring for superior innovations that are discontinuous. The paper questions the enthusiastic private and public sector support for EMS implementation and instead recommends an ambidextrous management approach that integrates foresight and broader stakeholder collaboration. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.
112 citations
Book•
01 Aug 2007
TL;DR: Table of Contents Forward by W. Stanton Smith, Introduction: Foresight to Insight to Action Part One.
Abstract: Table of Contents Forward by W. Stanton Smith, Introduction: Foresight to Insight to Action Part One FORESIGHT: Sensing Provocative Futures Chapter 1: Thinking Ten Years Ahead to Benefit Today Chapter 2: Institute for the Future's Ten-Year Forecast Chapter 3: The VUCA World: Both Danger & Opportunity Chapter 4: What's Different About Problems Part Two INSIGHT: Sense Making, to Inspire Strategy Chapter 5: It Takes a Story to Understand a Dilemma Chapter 6: Immersion: The Best Way to Learn in the VUCA World Chapter 7: Sensing and Sense Ability Chapter 8: How Foresight Can Inspire Strategy Part Three ACTION: To Get There Early Chapter 9: Insight from Action Chapter 10: Flex and Flex Ability Chapter 11: Being Flexibly Firm Conclusion: Making Your Peace with the VUCA World
82 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explore the gap between theory and practice in foresight and give some suggestions on how to reduce it and propose two different types of practical foresight activities: critical futures studies and praxis foresight.
Abstract: Purpose – The paper aims to explore the gap between theory and practice in foresight and to give some suggestions on how to reduce it.Design/methodology/approach – Analysis of practical foresight activities and suggestions are based on a literature review, the author's own research and practice in the field of foresight and futures studies, and her participation in the work of a European project (COST A22).Findings – Two different types of practical foresight activities have developed. One of them, the practice of foresight of critical futures studies (FCFS) is an application of a theory of futures studies. The other, termed here as praxis foresight (PF), has no theoretical basis and responds directly to practical needs. At present a gap can be perceived between theory and practice. PF distinguishes itself from the practice and theory of FCFS and narrows the construction space of futures. Neither FCFS nor PF deals with content issues of the outer world. Reducing the gap depends on renewal of joint discour...
70 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a combination of market research and foresight modules is proposed for analyzing the economic potential of emerging technologies like nanotechnology, and a case study of complementary methods for the acquisition and analysis of data is presented.
60 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the Vision 2023 Technology Foresight program is analyzed from a contextualist perspective, and the authors suggest that any change activity should be designed, organized and implemented by considering relationships between the context, content and process of change.
56 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors focus on short-term policies and actions that may possibly lead to the future states taking into consideration the role of market conditions as well as lifestyle and social developments.
Abstract: Scenarios are used in research, foresight, planning, policy-making and business strategy within the energy domain. There is no common theoretical and methodological framework for making scenario analysis. Rather, definitions and methodologies are most often tailored for specific uses. Scenarios are used for three overarching purposes: For predicting, exploring and anticipating future energy systems. Energy scenarios most often involve economic/engineering modelling of the energy system relying on uncertain projections, expectations, visions or hope for future economic or technical developments thereby lacking a detailed argumentation for the specific social and political conditions under which the scenarios may likely unfold. Energy scenario studies may be improved by focusing more on describing short-term policies and actions that may possibly lead to the future states taking into consideration the role of market conditions as well as lifestyle and social developments.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors proposed that the answer to forecasting the future is empirical research within the social sciences and that demographic change has been recognized as a key determinant for explaining social change, since age transition can explain a wide range of socioeconomic changes.
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors define a generic framework for the management of Strategic Foresight activities on the strategic, tactical and operational level and identify and discuss actors, methods and systems of strategic foresight.
Abstract: Strategic Foresight activities enable companies to use weak signals to identify opportunities and threats. Research on Strategic Foresight proposes different methods, discusses their implementation and gives recommendations on how to link Strategic Foresight with other functions in an organization. Based on a literature review, we define a generic framework for the management of Strategic Foresight activities on the strategic, tactical and operational level and identify and discuss actors, methods and systems of Strategic Foresight. Building on an in-depth case study of the Deutsche Telekom Laboratories we shed light on the implementation of Strategic Foresight activities. In the discussion we focus on the interaction of methods from Consumer Foresight and Technology Intelligence. Taking an example project, we explore how Strategic Foresight is used on the operational level of innovation management. We conclude that Strategic Foresight can successfully contribute to coping with uncertainty and complexity and can feed the front-end of innovation from the market (customer needs) and technology (realization opportunities) perspective.
30 Mar 2007
TL;DR: The pan-European research area is formed in the framework of numerous transnational research partnerships, which, in turn, are implemented under the European Framework Programme as discussed by the authors, which is unique in their scope, as well as in essence, as they are formed on the basis of global foresight.
Abstract: Europe is in transition to a new model of economic development. To this end, the EU creates a common research space, a kind of pan-European marketplace of ideas, research, innovation. Such large-scale problem is solved in the framework of numerous transnational research partnerships, which, in turn, are implemented under the European Framework Programme. The programs are unique in their scope, as well as in essence, as they are formed on the basis of global Foresight. Richard Burger, an S&T advisor of the EC Delegation in Russia, discusses how and on what basis the pan-European research area is formed.
TL;DR: This paper offers an approach to assess the quality of foresight knowledge deployed or generated during foresight exercises, as illustrated on issues of sustainable development.
Abstract: This paper offers an approach to assess the quality of foresight knowledge deployed or generated during foresight exercises. Although 'foresight knowledge' is a special case, the idea of having a procedure, an approach or a method available for assessing the quality of knowledge is tempting: Foresight knowledge consists of various sources such as different scientific disciplines, normative visions on the future, planning and scenarios. It also receives input from different sectors of society, such as industry, academia and civil society. How can we then assess the quality of knowledge inputs from such diverse sources and its implication for foresight exercises? This paper is an attempt to address this subject matter. Foresight knowledge and quality assurance is illustrated on issues of sustainable development.
TL;DR: The latest form of the U.K. Foresight program demonstrates that the ability to make decisions based on scientific evidence is something no government should be without.
Abstract: The latest form of the U.K. Foresight program demonstrates that the ability to make decisions based on scientific evidence is something no government should be without.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors describe the Danish Green Technological Foresight on Environmental Friendly Agriculture (GTFEFA) as a case study and examine the way in which a group of interested parties arrived at recommendations on the application of a number of emerging agriculture-related technologies.
30 Mar 2007
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provide an overview of the most common Foresight tools and demonstrate examples of their implementation in developed countries, and present the Russian experience of FOREST studies conducted at the national level.
Abstract: The paper provides an overview of the most common Foresight tools and demonstrates examples of their implementation in developed countries. It also presents the Russian experience of Foresight studies conducted at the national level. Note: Downloadable document is in Russian.
TL;DR: In this paper, a dilemma consisting of the market-oriented perspective of users of medical technology versus the long-term technology foresight perspective is discussed, where the results of the Delphi-technique are used as the main input for the development of various capacity (Market-based) scenarios.
TL;DR: Limits of established foresight processes and planning approaches, limitations in practical utilization of results of foresight process, and quality of data, information and knowledge as concrete tools and as a systematic response to limitations are investigated.
01 Jan 2007
TL;DR: The Nordic Foresight Forum project as discussed by the authors is a forum for foresight practitioners and researchers from a number of different organizations in Nordic countries to exchange their experience and ideas and to identify good practices.
Abstract: (max 250 words) All Nordic countries face the challenge of selecting subjects for foresight projects and future initiatives within science and technology. However, the foresight landscape the Nordic countries is quite fragmented; various approaches have been taken by foresight actors for exercises with differing areas of focus. To meet the challenges presented by foresight projects in Nordic countries, the Nordic Foresight Forum project has two main objectives. • To create and operate a Nordic Foresight Forum where foresight practitioners and researchers from a number of different organizations can exchange their experience and ideas. • To identify good practices for foresight in the Nordic countries. These will form the basis for decisions and investment with regard to science and technology; for example, innovation policy and priorities in research or technological development. The overall aim of the project is to strengthen the Nordic Innovation Area, to increase the weight of input by Nordic countries in discussions in Europe, and to focus on “Nordicness” in a global world. The present report map Nordic foresight activities and foresight actors as well as the use of and needs for foresight in research and innovation council systems. The report discuss the challenges of innovation policy and the possible roles of foresight exercises benefiting the Nordic Research and Innovation Area before arriving at a number of recommendations for foresight at Nordic level in general and for the NICe specifically. Topic/NICe Focus Area: Foresight ISSN: Language: EN Pages: 58
TL;DR: In this article, the foresight exercises in Thailand to devise the key science and technology (S&T) strategies were concerned with the national foresight processes to influence policy making.
TL;DR: The second law of thermodynamics is widely recognised as having fundamental implications for the nature of our physical reality, but it is also widely misinterpreted, leading to distorted understanding of this reality as mentioned in this paper.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors compare recent scenarios on the European food and agriculture sector, based on the own scenario writing in the frame of the project “Trends in food supply and demand and their consequences” of the Office of Technology Assessment at the German Parliament.
Abstract: The paper compares recent scenarios on the European food and agriculture sector, based on the own scenario writing in the frame of the project “Trends in food supply and demand and their consequences” of the Office of Technology Assessment at the German Parliament. The aim is to work out common points and differing assumptions so that a better understanding of possible futures for European food chains can be achieved. Scenarios from technology assessment, foresight and sustainability research activities in different European countries are included. They focus in different ways on technological developments, production systems, policy arrangements and/or societal changes. Furthermore, the food chain is not mapped always adequately, which means the main focus is partly on agriculture. The driving forces for the scenarios are more or less differentiated, with interesting analogies. Finally, nearly all compared scenario papers work with a qualitative approach and have a medium-term time horizon. Lessons from the comparison are that the open future of European food chains depends in great parts from uncertainties in three areas: - technological uncertainties, - societal uncertainties, and - political uncertainties. At least for the European food sector, the important influence of societal values and developments cannot be denied. The analysed scenario studies give a first insight which impacts on the food chain can result from future societal developments. For the political uncertainties, different paths are seen for the future shaping of the Common Agricultural Policy – varying from liberalisation to enforced regionalisation. At the same time, this indicates that a comprehensive policy for the food chain is still missing and it is uncertain if such a policy can be achieved. The three areas of uncertainties are also key elements to examine the realisation problems of sustainability strategies. More investigation is needed to understand better the influence of technological, societal and political framework conditions on sustainability strategies for the food and agriculture sector, to analyse conflicts between different sustainability goals, and to identify possible options for action which are robust under different and also unfavourable conditions.
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01 Jan 2007
TL;DR: The Nordic ICT Foresight project as discussed by the authors contributed to the strategic intelligence of the Nordic knowledge region so that the full potential of information and communication technology can be realized in the Nordic region.
Abstract: The aim of the Nordic ICT Foresight project was to contribute to the strategic intelligence of the Nordic knowledge region so that the full potential of information and communication technology can ...
01 Jan 2007
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors describe the peculiarities and characteristics of India's system of innovation by taking various indicators and propose a framework for the specification of the system and its characteristics.
Abstract: India is one of the few large economies that have functioning national systems of innovation. It has followed largely a period when self-reliance and selective
and guided intervention in the world economy prevailed until the early 1990s when liberalisation of the economy took off. Its economy now is growing at a nearly 8 % of GDP and is seen as an emerging economy on a par with China.
The policy makers in India have asked: can India become a developed country by 2020? (see Kalam, 1998). India has tried to apply science and technology to industrialise agriculture and build a modern economy. To this day despite the splendid achievements, India has not escaped from underdevelopment, poverty and inequalities. The specification of the peculiarities and characteristics of
India’s system of innovation by taking various indicators is critical to undertake. India’s strategy for building its national system of innovation has borne always a
dualistic and lopsided feature in terms of priorities for science and technology selection and foresight, policies for supporting science, technology and innovation, creating institutions and their linkages, knowledge and learning, capability and training, diffusion and incentives. Despite its significant achievements in areas such as building strong industrial and R & D base,
establishing a large number of science and technology institutions, and creating large pool of scientists and engineers, the Indian national innovation system has
been criticised for its low quality manufactured good, and inability to eradicate poverty.
Key issues taken up for this paper are:
TL;DR: The authors used an interdisciplinary approach combining media content analysis and factor analysis to discover many ways Turkey and the world may restructure and what the new society may look like as perceived by the individuals who participated in the survey.
31 Aug 2007
TL;DR: Futures studies such as technology foresight and backcasting are concerned with changes in society and technological transformation in a long-term perspective, but are also recognising the importan...
Abstract: Futures studies such as technology foresight and backcasting are concerned with changes in society and technological transformation in a long-term perspective, but are also recognising the importan ...
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors discuss the Egyptian experience in futures studies through the conducting of a foresight study into the future of water in Egypt to 2025, and suggest a set of conclusions and recommendations that could help in a better integration of futures studies into the Government's strategic planning process.
Abstract: Purpose – This paper aims to discuss the Egyptian experience in futures studies through the conducting of a foresight study into the future of water in Egypt to 2025.Design/methodology/approach – Futures wheel, questionnaires, focus groups, and scenarios workshops have been used in this study.Findings – The paper represents the obstacles that had to be surmounted in engaging key stakeholders in the foresight study and suggests a set of conclusions and recommendations that could help in a better integration of futures studies into the Government's strategic planning process.Originality/value – The paper introduces a tailored methodology for a successful scenarios building process in Egypt. Also, it advises on how futures studies could be integrated into the policy making process in Egypt.