Showing papers on "Futures studies published in 2017"
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a case study of an experiential futures/design fiction project co-created with workshop participants at the inaugural Emerge festival, an explicitly futures-themed hybrid arts and science event staged at Arizona State University in the city of Phoenix in 2012.
130 citations
TL;DR: This article conducted a systematic literature review searching two library databases, Business Source Complete and ScienceDirect, for scientific articles related to the topic of strategic foresight in the context of the organization.
101 citations
01 Jan 2017
TL;DR: Foresight can be a highly useful tool to address the opportunities and challenges triggered by the next production revolution as shown by the various country cases considered in this chapter, it facilitates debating and systemic thinking about multiple futures and helps shaping the future through the process of participation and engagement as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: Foresight can be a highly useful tool to address the opportunities and challenges triggered by the next production revolution As shown by the various country cases considered in this chapter, it facilitates debating and systemic thinking about multiple futures and helps shaping the future through the process of participation and engagement Given its participatory nature, key actors are mobilised to form shared views about the future, negotiate their future stakes and interests, and agree on actions aligned to their shared vision The next production revolution requires quick and proactive policy-making, as well as better orchestration across different policy domains Foresight can assist policy-makers by providing foundations for robust policies, fostering new framing of policy issues, as well as translating long-term concerns into aligned policy priorities Furthermore, policy implementation is likely to be faster and more effective when key stakeholders are involved early on in shaping these policies Foresight benefits, however, are far from being automatic: the chapter considers eight factors critical to achieving those An astute embedding of a foresight process into policy-making enhances the likelihood of impact, but foresight recommendations are no substitute for policy decisions and actions
84 citations
TL;DR: This research proposes a novel method of identifying and understanding the holistic overview of emerging technologies’ unintended consequences through considering condition- and value-related terms as key linking factors to previous social impact-related literature.
83 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors trace a dialectical and inter-twined relationship between technologies of environmental anticipation and forecasting, and technologies of anti-environmentalist anticipation and counter-intervention, one which shapes not only the contemporary politics of anticipation, but in a very material sense, the future conditions of biological and social life on Earth.
63 citations
TL;DR: A comprehensive review of strategic foresight and its influence on innovation can be found in this article, where the authors provide a comprehensive analysis of 258 academic publications from 1990 to 2014, focusing on the conceptual linkages between strategic vision and innovation performance.
Abstract: The concept of strategic foresight has come to dominate contemporary management discourse in recent times with a remarkable upsurge in the number of scholarly papers reporting a positive influence of strategic foresight on innovation. This causal link has served not only as a point of convergence for many empirical and conceptual studies, but also the starting point for theorizing the relevance of strategic foresight in organizing. Drawing on an exhaustive sample of 258 academic publications from 1990–2014, this paper provides a comprehensive review of strategic foresight and its influence on innovation. Our review suggest that strategic foresight rather than directly resulting in innovation tend to rather influence it by shaping and giving form to innovation management tools, and future-oriented knowledge creation, which in turn cumulatively drive innovation performance. Our proposed integrative framework therefore specifies the conceptual linkages between strategic foresight and innovation performance.
61 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the benefits and potential threats of open innovation and foresight from different standpoints within innovation ecosystems and smart specialisation are investigated, the recent trend of shifting priority setting into technological and social dimensions with the aim of developing specialized clusters and regions is underlined.
Abstract: The paper touches upon the different sides of cutting-edge science, technology and innovation (STI) policy concepts such as clusters and smart specialization and STI management such as open innovation and foresight which are of great interest to researches, scientists and managers in course of building successful business and creating dynamic regions, identifying the priorities of future, coping with uncertainty and rising risks, heated by the global challenges. In particular, we explore the dynamics and interactions of intelligent clusters, research and innovation smart specialization strategies, targeted open innovation and foresight networks within the context of entrepreneurship and innovation ecosystems. Having investigated the benefits and potential threats of open innovation and foresight from different standpoints within innovation ecosystems and smart specialisation, the recent trend of shifting priority setting into technological and social dimensions with the aim of developing specialized clusters and regions is underlined. The identified tight linkage between the fruits from cluster smart specialization, open innovation and foresight enables implementing simultaneously all of them at various stages of innovation process. Thereafter the analysis of innovative collaboration forms reveals that the holistic views of open innovators and rational application of foresight are becoming the central message of the strategy development and implementation process.
54 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present the sustainability assessment framework for scenarios (SAFS), a method developed for assessing the environmental and social risks and opportunities of future scenarios, providing guidelines for its application and demonstrating how the framework can be applied.
47 citations
TL;DR: A three-step methodological framework for science foresight on the basis of published research papers is described, consisting of (i) life-cycle analysis, (ii) text mining and (iii) knowledge gap identification by means of automated clustering.
47 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a roadmap of robotics, which covers key aspects of industrial and service robotics, discuss technology foresight insights and interlinkages to robotics, and identify three critical technology roadmaps: the technological future of robots, digitalization and ICT technologies.
Abstract: In this article we discuss the futures of work and robotics. We evaluate key future trends in the field of robotics and analyse different scenarios regarding the futures of human beings and work life. Subsequently, we present a roadmap of robotics, which covers key aspects of industrial and service robotics, discuss technology foresight insights and inter-linkages to robotics, and identify three critical technology roadmaps: the technological future of robotics, digitalisation and ICT technologies. Finally, we analyse economic, social, and political key challenges of the digital transformation of work and labour policy in the European Union in general and against the backdrop of the European robotics strategy in particular.
45 citations
31 Mar 2017
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors developed a framework that can inspire businesses to use sustainability as a leading principle for their commercial activities, by means of expert consultation, which resulted in four scenarios for a sustainable tourism industry in 2040 which were framed by the key uncertainties driving this 2040 future.
Abstract: Purpose
In tourism, it is a challenge to connect the commercial (economic) interests of the industry with the creation of social and environmental values along the principles of sustainability. The purpose of this paper is to develop a framework that can inspire businesses to use sustainability as a leading principle for their commercial activities, by means of expert consultation.
Design/methodology/approach
A study was conducted in which sustainability, foresight and business identity featured as the guiding concepts. Data were collected by means of expert consultation.
Findings
The study resulted in four scenarios for a sustainable tourism industry in 2040 which were framed by the key uncertainties driving this 2040 future. These scenarios offer a source of inspiration for tourism businesses to develop a proactive attitude and robust strategies for a sustainable yet competitive future. Subsequently, for each of the four business types (based on their identity or DNA) strategic questions were listed together with actionable strategic propositions with reference to sustainable development.
Research limitations/implications
Data were collected with a sample of partners in the European Tourism Futures Research Network (convenience sample).
Practical implications
The key strategic questions and actionable strategic propositions are presented for four different business styles that allow them to implement sustainability in a commercial way.
Originality/value
The connection between the core concepts of sustainability, foresight and business identity offers a novel approach to the field of sustainability.
TL;DR: In this article, the ways in which futures are enacted, and thus mobilized, by publics, participants and practitioners, and especially by social scientists, are discussed, and discussed in detail.
Abstract: This paper concerns the ways in which futures are enacted, and thus mobilized, by publics, participants and practitioners, and especially by social scientists. In particular, the paper is intereste...
TL;DR: For more than a decade, futures studies scholars have prefaced scholarly contributions by repeating the claim that there is insufficient theory to support chaotic scenario methodology as mentioned in this paper, which is referred to as the scenario planning paradox.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors explore how speculative and creative fiction offer ways of embodying, telling, imagining, and symbolising "futures" that can provide alternative frames and understandings to enrich the grand challenges of the 21st century, and the related rationale and agendas for ERA and H2020.
TL;DR: In this article, a qualitative analysis of interviews and documents about past and future forest land use, and observation of participatory scenario-building and back-casting workshops during 2011-2014 is presented.
TL;DR: Wang et al. as mentioned in this paper systematically summarized and discussed academic studies, governmental practices, and policy applications regarding technology foresight in China, associated with bibliometrics, expert interviews, and desk research methods.
TL;DR: In this paper, an energy transformation to reach 100% renewable energy is envisioned in four transformational neo-carbon energy scenarios and the implications of surprises for energy security, as the world increasingly seeks to move towards a renewable energy based society, are explored.
Abstract: We are living in a world of increasing interconnectedness through digitalisation and globalisation, exacerbating environmental conditions, severe economic challenges, uneven distribution of wealth, and geopolitical crises. The world is a complex system and the rapid change among its sub-systems builds up pressure for any efforts to anticipate change and shape the processes of transformation. Surprise is an intrinsic aspect of change, in particular when it takes place at an accelerating pace with high degrees of volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity (VUCA) - or within the condition of post-normality as described by Ziauddin Sardar. Emerging technologies such as AI and renewable energy systems add to the complexity of societies, and thus to the world of VUCA and post-normality. In foresight horizon scanning has much focused on the probable or even predictable -surprise-free developments. More emphasis should be paid on systematic anticipation of wild cards and black swans, and on the analysis of weak signals. Foresight should also focus on discontinuities - broader phenomena and developments instead of single events. Energy is a complex issue. Without energy there is no life, neither biological nor economic. Taking into account the huge ecological and social costs of the present energy system, the need for a new emission-free, cost-effective, and democratised energy system is obvious. An energy transformation to reach 100% renewable energy is envisioned in four transformational neo-carbon energy scenarios. Energy is increasingly a societal and even cultural issue - above all a security issue. As regards energy security, various sudden events and surprises could play a major role. New energy systems themselves, with other new technologies, nudge the world into unknown, discontinuous directions. Therefore, we probe the resilience, anti-fragility and discontinuity of these transformational, societal energy scenarios. The results of a futures clinique where the scenarios were tested are presented. Implications of surprises for energy security, as the world increasingly seeks to move towards a renewable energy based society, are explored.
TL;DR: In this paper, a collaborative foresight project was conducted by the project initiators (Linz Center of Mechatronics Ltd. and Institute of Strategic Management, Johannes Kepler University Linz (ISM)) in cooperation with five companies.
02 May 2017
TL;DR: Part of the body of materials that were developed in a multi-year research project with the aim of describing and evaluating the sustainability impact of possible future information societies are presented.
Abstract: The pathway to a sustainable society is not clear, and we need to consider different developmental possibilities. This paper describes the results of a research project in the intersection of HCI and Futures Studies as well as in the intersection between "the future information society" and sustainability. We here present parts of the body of materials that were developed in a multi-year research project with the aim of describing and evaluating the sustainability impact of possible future information societies. We also discuss some of the lessons learned and what HCI and design fiction can learn from Futures Studies in general and from this project in particular. The main stakeholders in this project have been city administrators and corporate partners, and the overarching goal has primarily been to influence planning processes at the regional (Stockholm, Sweden) level.
TL;DR: In this paper, the use of qualitative and phenomenological approaches in the fields of FTA and foresight is discussed, and the authors advocate the professional use of such methods in foresight and FTA studies.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors propose the use of foresight methodology to optimize educational content and structure didactic potential of learning environment, which is based on accommodation of subjective views of stakeholders in the education system, creation of a common vision of the informational and educational environment which involves objective prognostic information and the trends and tendencies in regional education development.
Abstract: Currently, informational-educational environment has become one of the constitutive tendencies in the development of modern education and correlates with IT development in all spheres of human life. The availability of multiple possibilities for using information and communication technologies in education brings about variability in university learning environment design. The authors propose the use of foresight methodology to optimize educational content and structure didactic potential of learning environment. The mechanism of pedagogical design using foresight methodology is based on accommodation of subjective views of stakeholders in the education system, creation of a common vision of the informational and educational environment which involves objective prognostic information and the trends and tendencies in regional education development. The knowledge gained from foresight methodology made it possible to design informational and educational, or learning, environment at the university that is able to ensure the learning process meeting the expectations of all stakeholders as close as it is possible and affect the employment rate of the university graduates.
TL;DR: In this article, a case study of the Personal Health Systems (PHS) Foresight project is presented, which explores the implications of applying this type of foresight on improving systemic understanding, enhancing stakeholder networking and developing innovation capacities across the layers of ecosystems.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors explore sectoral futures at European level in a range of different sectors (automotive, construction, textile, KIBS, wholesale & retail) to identify cross-cutting patterns of sectoral change, and highlight implications that these may raise for European innovation policy.
TL;DR: In this article, a comprehensive conceptualization of Energy Technology Foresight (ETF) in emerging economies, including development trajectories, key methodological tools and elements, major challenges and weaknesses, is presented.
TL;DR: The potential of futures images is exposed in anticipating and informing transitions of complex adaptive systems toward sustainability by depicting attractors of sustainable local food systems by futures images through working with an appropriate level of abstraction, leaning on a multi-perspective approach and breaking the linear relationship between the present and the future.
TL;DR: It is established that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process and Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors propose a novel interconnected multilevel approach containing two elements of policy making to support innovation for inclusive development: a) the close interplay between foresight and policy making, and b) the linking of local community-level to national level foresight.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examine what a systematic literature review tells us about the application of Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) to support e-Government planning, implementation or evaluation.
Abstract: During the last three decades, many governments have incorporated Information and Communication Technologies in their internal and external processes, a phenomenon widely known as electronic government (e-Government). Rationales for e-Government include increasing public services’ efficiency, speed, transparency, accountability, etc., and enhancing relations between government and stakeholders (citizens, businesses, third sector organisations). e-Government programmes are large-scale innovation projects; and Future-oriented Technology Analysis, FTA, is often used in the design of public policies in science, technology and innovation. FTA tools allow for systematic appraisal of potential challenges, opportunities, and threats, and thus informing the design of long-term strategies. The aim of this paper is to examine what a systematic literature review tells us about the application of FTA to support e-Government planning, implementation or evaluation. The review confirms that FTA played a role in supporting some e-Government initiatives, especially in their planning stages. However, few relevant exercises of this sort are reported in the English language, though the e-Government literature itself in that language- is voluminous. Previous researchers often attribute weaknesses in e-Government efforts to deficiencies in vision and strategic planning. Hopefully, this review can encourage both FTA and e-Government practitioners to apply FTA to e-Government development. This suggests that there is both opportunity and need to take greater advantage of FTA in this field.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors explore the future roles and development of innovation diplomacy as the outcome of interactions between the evolving characteristics of science, technology and innovation on the one hand and of international relations and foreign policies on the other.
Abstract: Science diplomacy links the two policy domains of foreign affairs and science policy. Competitive thinking and the ways in which this affects global challenges are now putting the globalisation trends in science, technology and innovation under pressure. Rising populism adds to the growth of de-globalisation politics. In an increasingly knowledge driven world this leads to changes in the roles of diplomats. Their focus has already shifted from relatively neutral scientific collaborations to the technology and innovation interests of their home-countries. What are likely future developments of the field of science, technology and innovation diplomacy? The paper explores the future roles and development of innovation diplomacy as the outcome of interactions between the evolving characteristics of science, technology and innovation on the one hand and of international relations and foreign policies on the other. It is explorative, because there is no research tradition on which it can build and requires bringing together insights from several disciplines in new combinations. Trends in the fields of science, technology and innovation and in the field of international relations (including changes in the mechanisms and institutions for global governance) will be discussed. Together these drivers provide a framework through which potential futures of innovation diplomacy can be explored.
TL;DR: In this article, an inventory of recent futures studies in food and agriculture with a focus on participation and impact is presented, with an emphasis on the role of food participation and agricultural impact.