Showing papers on "Judgement published in 1985"

Another look at the ‘new psychophysics’

Abstract: The ‘new psychophysics' is reviewed in terms of four issues: (1) the adequacy of the power law as an empirical description, (2) the validity of this law, (3) what is being measured and (4) the theoretical implications of the power law. Each issue is considered in turn with an emphasis on the theoretical implications since it is thought that this approach to psychophysical judgement can best be assessed in this respect. It is found that there are critical weaknesses in this approach to psychophysics.

Trends in human reliability analysis

Abstract: The approach to human reliability has been changing during the past decades, partly due to the needs from probabilistic risk assessment of large scale industrial installations, partly due to a change within psychological research towards cognitive studies. In the paper, some of the characteristic features of this change are discussed Definition of human error and judgement of performance are becoming increasingly difficult concurrently with the change of tasks from routine activities towards decision making during abnormal situations. The nature of human error and the relationship with learning and adaptation are discussed, and the recent development of models of cognitive mechanisms behind errors is mentioned The present approaches to human reliability within different application areas are reviewed. In industrial risk analysis, attempts are made to develop models of operators' decision making during emergency situations, and to obtain the necessary error data by simulator experiments and by systematic u...

A comparative study of bibliometric past performance analysis and peer judgement

Abstract: A comparison is made between two types of research past performance analysis: the results of bibliometric-indicators and the results of peer judgement. This paper focuses on two case studies: the work of Dutch National Survey Committees on Chemistry and on Biology, both compared with our bibliometric results for research groups in these disciplines at the University of Leiden. The comparison reveals a serious lack of agreement between the two types of past performance analysis. This important, science-policy relevant observation is discussed in this paper.

The date of Messalla's death

Abstract: In a characteristically provocative judgement Sir Ronald Syme has declared: ‘It is not easy to go against a document. Nevertheless, the worse posture is obduracy against the testimony of a precise and lucid writer’. The writer is Ovid, the document one employed by Frontinus, and the context, the death-date of Messalla Corvinus, a subject of scholarly dispute since Scaliger's day. Largely on the basis of two passages in Ovid ( Trist. 4. 4. 25 ff.; Pont. 1. 7. 29 f.), Syme rejects the apparent testimony of Frontinus ( Aq. 102) and Jerome ( Chron. p. 170 H) that Messalla died in a.d. 12 or 13, in favour of a date in a.d. 8, before Ovid's departure for exile. Issues beyond the death-date of Messalla are involved. Thus Syme wishes, as a corollary, to ante-date the year of Livy's death by five years from a.d. 17 to a.d. 12.3 Further, Syme's characterization of Ovid as ‘a precise and lucid writer’ seems to have more general implications. His arguments merit close scrutiny.

Recent developments using micro-approaches to demographic research.

Abstract: The shortcomings of social science research on demographic issues are attributable both to a preoccupation with measurement issues and methodologies and to an unwillingness to make use of other sources of information apart from the questionnaire-based survey. To progress several theoretical problems have first to be faced. There are important issues to be addressed concerning the validity of the concept of social facts versus the individualists and the conceptual framework within which accounts of the trends and levels in the main demographic parameters are couched. Close study of small groups permits the researcher to consider more complex models than the single variable models using the beguilingly simple concept of the proximate determinants. Biographical work to give just 1 example brings out relationships and causes not easily modelled in the conventional way even by the methods of household economics. One difficulty with any research which involves a great deal of subjective judgement and selection is the production of proof (or disproof) acceptable to the statistically-minded social science community. An attractive possibility is the fuller exploitation of the now quite numerous natural experiments under way in different countries as a result of interventions for development. Some bonuses obtained from adopting the micro-level approach include the ability to look at the accounting units used for intergenerational transfers and to separate rules from practice by observation. Some of the applications of this approach are taken from the papers presented at the 1st meeting of the IUSSPs Micro-demography Working Group in Australia in September 1984. The range of papers covered the way demographers have adopted the methods of social anthropology and the returns achieved. More specific concentrations on beliefs and practice related to one aspect of fertility or migration seemed to be a fruitful way of obtaining a rounded view of the society under study. The micro-macro mix appeared to produce good results when the large-scale survey was used to identify problem areas and to identify discontinuities. Some new leads are also emerging from intensive study of a few historical communities using both oral histories and written records. The review of recent work indicates the existence of an active area of research strong on the development of original field approaches and in the commitment of the researchers to try and understand the cultural grammar of the people observed. The undoubted weakness is the lack of theory the relative paucity of research on the generalization of findings from the number of cases observed and the absence of much serious simulation work as a way of testing hypotheses. (authors)

A social psychology of prejudice

Abstract: Prejudice is a topic of major interest to psychologists and sociologists, but had rarely been given the broad treatment its importance demanded. Originally published in 1985, this title first introduces the term, showing how it is related to other terms commonly used in psychology and the social sciences, and explains simply and clearly what a scientific analysis must involve. It then goes on to show how prejudice affects our reasoning and judgement in a wide variety of spheres in addition to race or ethnic attitudes. Next it traces the development of prejudiced attitudes towards black people in Britain and the New World, through the slave system and the slave trade, with a brief look at the remarkably similar development of ethnic attitudes in South Africa at the time. It then goes on to discuss the debate about race differences in intelligence, showing simply and clearly what the statistical assumptions underlying the heritability hypothesis are. Following that the psychological explanation of prejudice and principles explaining prejudice are spelled out, the question of sex prejudice is dealt with, and finally, the extent of ethnic prejudice in Britain and the USA is discussed. The final chapter is a summary of the general principles and conclusions discussed through the book. This title provides a scientific and historical perspective on prejudice, a thorough literature review, and clear summarising principles of prejudice, in a simple and straightforward style.

Really Useless 'Knowledge': A Political Critique of Aesthetics

Abstract: In his Immanuel Kant, Lucien Goldmann cites the early Lukacs’s view that ‘the Critique of Judgement contains the seeds of a reply to every problem of structure in the sphere of aesthetics; aesthetics need thus only clarify and think through to the end that which is implicitly there to hand’ (Goldmann 1971:192) This was precisely what Lukacs did in subsequently historicizing Kant’s conception of the subject and object of aesthetic judgement. The approach adopted here is rather different. The Critique, I shall argue, does provide a clear statement of ‘every problem of structure in the field of aesthetics’, but less by way of resolving those problems, or anticipating their resolution, than by specifying the conditions that would need to be met were they to be resolved. Viewed in this light, Kant’s treatise is most fruitfully read as a commentary on the necessary conditions, properties and requirements of aesthetic discourse.

Pre-School Children's Understanding of War.

Abstract: This study examined the responses of sixty pre‐school children who were interviewed regarding their understanding of the concept of war. Although the majority of the children could not articulate details of the specific nature of war, their moral judgements indicated that they thought war was bad giving morally relevant reasons to explain their judgement. The implementations of the findings for pre‐school educators are discussed.

Prior beliefs and statistical inference

Abstract: This research aims to resolve an apparent paradox between findings in the literatures on statistical judgement and deductive reasoning. In the former, a tendency to ignore base-rates has often been interpreted as a failure to take account of Bayesian ‘prior’ probabilities. On the other hand there is evidence that prior beliefs influence deductive inferences when they are formally irrelevant. In this paper two experiments are reported in which subjects were required to make two types of statistical judgement, one of which should be affected by prior beliefs and the other of which should be independent of any prior opinions. Genuine real-world beliefs, as opposed to stated base-rates, were used to determine prior probabilities. As predicted, subjects' inferences were significantly affected by prior opinions on both kinds of question. However, prior beliefs exerted a significantly stronger influence on the question for which they would be deemed relevant in a Bayesian analysis.

Realism and Epistemology

Abstract: For most philosophers of science this century 'realism' has been the view that theories about scientific unobservables are to be taken at face value, as telling us the truth about an independent, albeit unobservable, reality. The opponents of such realists were the 'instrumentalists', who maintained instead that the worth of such theories about unobservables consisted in their usefulness as tools for organizing observations, or some such. An analogous debate, in some ways more serious and in some ways less, is the traditional debate between 'realists about the external world' and their 'idealist' opponents. Here the idealists denied that any judgements about a world beyond our immediate experience should be taken at face value, including judgements about such mundane medium-sized physical objects as sticks and stones. The realist, siding with common sense and Dr Johnson, saw no reason to deny that such judgements answer to a non-mental reality. One lesson of the past thirty years in philosophy has been to show us that these debates are misconceived. Both debates presuppose a level of judgement which is not itself problematic, a level of judgement the realist credentials of which do not get called in question. In the realisminstrumentalism debate this unproblematic level consisted of observational judgements. In the debate about the external world it consisted of judge? ments about sense-data, about the givens of sensory experience. And in both cases it was by contrast with such unproblematic 'givens' that the dubious judgements (about unobservables, about physical objects in general) were called in question. We now know, following Wittgenstein, Sellars, and others, that this contrast between 'givens' and the rest of judgement is incoherent. All judgements are fallible. No judgement can gain its authority just by being made. I shall not argue against 'givens' in this paper. I shall take these arguments for granted and consider what happens to the question of realism once we give up the distinction between what is given and what is not. One natural response is to conclude that once the given has gone the realist wins by default. If judgements about unobservables or physical objects are as good as any others, and in particular as good as those previously considered privileged, then surely it makes no sense to continue denying that they should be construed realistically. And indeed this was

The Use of Conjoint Analysis in the Determination of Goal Programming Weights for a Decision Support System

Abstract: One of the problems of management science models is that managers don’t use them. A recent trend in management science and information systems to mitigate this problem is the development of decision support systems (DSS). The purpose of a DSS is to integrate the intuition (multiple goals and judgement) and the data base of the manager into a computer model and data base to aid the decision making process.

The Moral Development of Mentally Retarded Children: Review of the Literature

Abstract: This paper reviews the literature on the moral judgement and development of moral behaviour of mentally retarded individuals. The relative contribution of mental age, chronological age, cognitive functioning, social experience and environmental factors to the moral characteristics of this population is discussed. Relevant studies are described in the light of both the perspectives of cognitive development and of social learning.

Economic and ecological theory: differences and similarities

Abstract: If you want to address such an ambitious question as that on the differences and similarities between economic and ecological theory it might be necessary to start with a statement on personal perspectives. Of course there is nothing like a homogeneous body of theory, in either economics or ecology, that can be compared. There is also no such thing as a single objective outsiders elevated judgement.

A measure of self-esteem in Singapore secondary schools

Abstract: What Is Self-Esteem and Why Is It Important? Stanley Coopersmith (1981. p. 5) defines self-esteem as “the evaluation a person makes and customarily maintains with regard to him- or herself. ‘Self-esteem’ expresses an attitude of approval or disapproval and indicates the extent to which a person believes him- or herself capable, significant, successful and worthy.” This judgement of worthiness of oneself is relatively enduring and general rather than transitory and specific. A person's self-esteem may vary across different areas of experience and role-defined conditions but one will presumably weigh these areas according to their subjective importance and then arrive at a general level of self-esteem. Attitude toward the “self” may or may not be noticed consciously. However, it can be detected through one's behaviour and performance.

Vietnam and the Six Criteria for the Use of Military Force

Abstract: : On 28 November 1984, Secretary of Defense Caspar W. Weinberger delivered a speech which deserves attention both within and beyond the military forces and government of the United States. This historic document was personally written by Mr. Weinberger, endorsed by the National Security Council, and discussed with and approved by the President. It represents a maturation and sophistication of our strategic judgement; more importantly, it adapts and clarifies defense policies of a different time and slower world to the exigencies of the present and the challenges of the future.

The Interaction between Economic Policy and Political Performance

Abstract: My theme is political economy and I use the term in its most literal sense to mean the complexity of interaction between political and economic behaviour. It is a truism that in societies characterised by democratic political systems, governments have periodically to submit themselves to the judgement of their electorates. All those who participate in democratic political processes have therefore an interest, first in identifying the factors that exert a significant influence on the electorate’s judgement and second in manipulating these factors so as to elicit, for themselves, a favourable verdict from the electorate. These two aspects — the identification and manipulation of electorally significant factors — form the theme of this chapter.

The relationships among moral judgement reasoning, sex role identity, social roletaking experiences and occupational role complexity in adult women /

Abstract: This reproduction was made from a copy of a m anuscrip t sen t to us for publication and microfilm ing. While the m ost advanced technology h as been used to pho­ tograph and reproduce th is m anuscrip t, the quality of the reproduction is heavily dependent upon the quality of the material subm itted. Pages in any m anuscript may have indistinct print. In all cases the best available copy has been filmed.

With Enemies Like This, Who Needs Friends?

Abstract: 1. N. Roll-Hansen, 'The Controversy between Biometricians and Mendelians: A Test Case for the Sociology of Scientific Knowledge', Social Science Information, Vol. 19 (1980), 501-17. 2. B. Barnes, 'On the Causal Explanation of Scientific Judgement', Social Science Information, Vol. 19 (1980), 685-95. 3. N. Roll-Hansen, 'The Death of Spontaneous Generation and the Birth of the Gene: Two Case Studies of Relativism', Social Studies of Science, Vol. 13 (1983), 481-519. 4. Ibid., 512, fn 7. 5. Ibid., 486. 6. Ibid., 510. 7. Ibid., 509.

A history of German new Guinea: A debate about evidence and judgement

Abstract: (1985). A history of German new Guinea: A debate about evidence and judgement. The Journal of Pacific History: Vol. 20, No. 2, pp. 84-94.

The judgement of observed teaching by preservice science education students

Abstract: The ability of preservice physics education students to make judgements of observed teaching during two differently structured education courses was investigated. The first part of each course, irrespective of its content, resulted in changes in students' evaluation of teaching, with greater and fairly stable individual differences in judgement emerging. Students' knowledge of pedagogical theory was found to be related both to their judgements of observed teaching and to the quality of their own teaching.

Moral reasoning in adolescents: A feature of intelligence or social adjustment?

Abstract: This paper summarizes certain aspects of an assessment of the level of the moral judgement of three groups of children: mildly educationally subnormal children, ESN(M), who are also maladjusted; stable ESN(M) children; and stable children of approximately average intelligence. A minimum age of 12.0 years was stipulated; all the children attended secondary school with the oldest in the total sample being 15 years 9 months. The assessment procedure which, although owing much if not all of its rationale to Piaget, is original in its mode of presentation and largely in its content, is described. The results of each of the three groups are compared. Also, the results are correlated with IQ. This enables a judgement to be arrived at as to the relative importance of (a) intelligence and (b) social adjustment in the making of mature moral decisions and choices.

Knowledge and Judgement in Decision-making

Abstract: Although faced with a wide range of medical problems, and working under conditions of limited resources and constant technical change, the GP is expected to manage patients quickly and well. This contradiction attracts a variety of proposed solutions. Some people look for more resources, some emphasise better training and others better organisation. This paper considers whether computer technology can be used to amplify one of the basic skills of the GP; that of decision-making.

Coleridge's Dread Book of Judgement: A Memory for Life:

Abstract: A number of writers in several quite unconnected fields have expressed a strong but odd conviction. They have asserted that all conscious experience is recorded by the memory: no moment of waking perception is ever forgotten. Authors as diverse as the poet Coleridge and the neurosurgeon Wilder Penfield have offered evidence in support of this contention. I shall trace some of the appearances of this idea, describing the evidence and analysing certain of the difficulties inhering in it. As will become plain, even at its first appearance in Coleridge’s Biographia Literaria, the idea offers more than a psychological curiosity: it implies a major ethical revaluation of the nature of memory. Perhaps there is material here for a new psychological ethics, which has yet to be written. Coleridge, who often mentioned the idea, might have turned his speculative mind more firmly in this direction: as I shall show, he possessed all the elements of a systematic presentation of the idea; but here, as in so many other matters, what Coleridge left is a set of intriguing but undeveloped fragments. It is Coleridge, however, who expressed

Correlation processing method and apparatus

Abstract: PURPOSE:To attain to enhance correlation accuracy, by performing correlation with due regard to the timewise transition of a target. CONSTITUTION:When data due to initial information from a specific observation system is inputted, the presence of absence of interrelation is judged but judgement of sameness is not directly performed even if target having correlation with the initial information is present and an initial value I0 is set to a counter I while final judgement is reserved (1). On the other hand, target data having correlation is absent (2), judgement of a different target is directly drawn and a lower limit value IMIN is set to a counter. When the presence of correlation target data is judged by the initial information, the judgement of correlation is repeated every when there is altered data and, if correlation is present, count-up is performed as shown by (3), (4), (5) and, if there is not correlation, count-down is performed as shown by (6)...(9). By this method, when a final count value reaches an upper limit value IMAX, the judgement of a same target is drawn and subsequent judgement is not performed. When the count value reaches a lower limit value IMIN, the judgement of a separate target is drawn and no subsequent judgement is performed. Therefore, when the content of the counter reaches IMAX or IMIN, judgement of the same target or not is decided.

Non-traditional higher education: An “outsider's” view

Abstract: A rank-and-file professor's attendance at a non-traditional higher education conference led to some salient observations: (1) Contrary to the “odd-ball” image they may have on some campuses, non-traditional programs can trace their lineage back to the very origins of Western universities; (2) At the same time, they represent a break with recent American University history, in that they appear to serve adult needs more than adolescent/young adult needs; (3) They are able to recognize true learning as occurring outside the parochial boundaries of grades, semester hours, etc; (4) They not only can individualize education, but they can make it an active (rather than passive) process; (5) These programs apparently strive to teach judgement and understanding,not just information; and (6) Such programs may be a functional arm of the so-called women's movement.