Showing papers on "R-CAST published in 1983"

Effects of Social Context on Consensus and Majority Vote Decision Making

Abstract: A laboratory study of group decision making found that social context (competitive or cooperative) and decision strategy (consensus or majority voting) affected decision acceptance, understanding, ...

Illustrative Comparison of One Utility's Coal and Nuclear Choices

Abstract: The technology choices facing an individual utility are complex decision problems. The paper illustrates a method designed to assist an individual utility company in making these choices in a logically consistent manner. The resulting evaluation model, based on the principles of decision analysis, explicitly addresses the complexity to provide a basis for decision making and support for defending the decision before reviewers. The model, which incorporates economic, environmental, social, safety, and regulatory effects, is demonstrated using a coal/nuclear choice which may be faced by Utah Power and Light Company in the near future. This analysis is meant to be illustrative; more effort would be needed to gather information to support a policy decision.

Problem Structuring Calculi and Levels of Knowledge Representation in Decision Making

Abstract: Publisher Summary In any study of individual decision making, it is essential to take into account the social context in which the decision making activities take place and within which the decision maker conceptualizes the consequences of his or her actions. Analysis of the way the social context is taken into account in the process of decision making has largely been concerned with examining the way in which actions are chosen and inferences made by people involved in decision making tasks and compared with the prescriptions of the representation of the decision making task in a normative model of the situation. The social world in its many manifestations in the macrolevel and microlevel not only determines the terrain of definitions and the range of understanding an individual member can use and perform in his or her decision making activities but also provides the person with the arena in which his or her choices and actions will be tried out, justified, interpreted by others, and rewarded or sanctioned. Under such an understanding of the relationship of the individual to his or her environment, the individual is seen not as passive, acted upon by the environment, but as active, interpreting, acting upon, and changing that environment.

Achieving the Potential of Decision Support Systems

Abstract: The notion of “decision support systems” (DSS) has entered the lexicon of strategic management in recent years. Practitioner‐oriented planning journals now carry numerous advertisements for commercially available “decision support systems.” The research literature has also begun to address the topic of strategic DSS (e.g.,[15, 24]).

Decision Making Related to Health

Abstract: In the literature related to health, references to decision making usually are concerned with the actions of physicians. Simulations of clinical decision making have been developed to assist in the instruction and practice of physician’s assistants and nurse practitioners. Decision analysis is employed in studying diagnostic problem-solving. In contrast, the health-related actions of individuals—their lifestyles, risk-taking, and use of health services—are studied as behaviors affected by beliefs, attitudes, and social norms. Although people are seen as making decisions about when to seek care and which option to select for treatment (if any options are presented), the general impression to be gained from this literature is that people behave and physicians decide.

Model Management in Decision Support Systems

Abstract: Models are a key component in most decision making processes. Systems developed to effectively support the decision making process must accomodate the models that give focus to the decision making motifs of the individual decision maker. The model management process is examined and the objectives of such as system for computer-aided support of model management is described. Alternative forms of knowledge representation in model representation are considered. Abstractions are singled as a robust model representation form. The model management system must facilitate the definition and maintenance of models and data as a resource in decision-making support. A prototype Decision Support System to support model management involving econometric modeling in the planning process is briefly described. The prototype system incorporates reference and user databases containing time-series data, model database of equations, a global directory to facilitate distribution and control, and a control program providing flexible user interface.

Human Engineering of Decision Aids

Abstract: Publisher Summary The purpose of a decision aid is to provide an analysis of a problem that is acceptable to the decision maker, and that makes recommendations for future action. The final recommendation must be consistent with all other information provided by the decision maker. Presumably the decision aid contains procedures for detecting inconsistencies, whether they occur among the initial judgments or between the final recommendations and the person's global evaluation of the options. The formal system of decision analysis concerns the specification of beliefs and values. Because decision theory itself provides the rationale for evaluating any behavior, self reference occurs whenever there are attempts to evaluate the statements of value. Invariance of recommendation under changes in context may be the safest guide to action. The value of a decision analysis lies in the insight that it provides into the decision maker's value system, rather than in specific recommendations for action. Several computer programs have recently appeared that can implement such a decision analysis. These programs make few assumptions about the nature of the person's problem, and include procedures for helping the person to describe any problem in terms that would be suitable for analysis. The overall goal of the system is to arrive at a choice that maximizes some explicit criterion, given certain assumptions about the nature of the problem. Achieving the objective of the decision system is clearly dependent on input of some sort from the human decision maker. There is discussion on communication between decision maker and decision aid—model selection, problem structuring, representation and translation, information retrieval, generating new ideas, and quantification.

Medical decision making: analyzing options in the face of uncertainty.

Abstract: Papers presented at the fourth annual meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making are discussed in the context of a review of the rapidly evolving interdisciplinary field of medical decision making (MDM). Advocates claim that probabilistic MDM techniques will incorporate diagnostic information, treatment options and outcomes, patient preferences, societal ethics, and financial considerations into a rational framework for making decisions in the face of uncertainty.

Educational Planning and Decision Making

Abstract: (1983). Educational Planning and Decision Making. The Journal of Higher Education: Vol. 54, No. 1, pp. 113-115.

A Review of Literature Relevant to Unaided Tactical Decision Making

Abstract: : A limited search was conducted for literature relevant to unaided tactical decision making The specific purpose was to acquire information that could be used to develop a methodology for training military leaders to make tactical decisions Particular emphasis was placed upon the training of US Army Armor tank platoon leaders as tactical decision makers Two approaches to the study of decision making were discussed: (1) the prescriptive (economic or rational) model which holds that opinions should be expressed in terms of subjective probabilities and revised by application of Bayes' Theorem as new information is received; and (2) the descriptive approach which attempts to delineate the decision maker's behavior as accurately as possible Two problems encountered by developers of decision making training programs were discussed: (1) providing for consequences of decisions and (2) evaluating decision making performance It was concluded that training a decision maker to apply the prescriptive model without the assistance of aids (such as a computer) is not likely to prove effective Three approaches to training in decision making were recommended

A context for career decision making

Abstract: A context is proposed that not only focuses career exploration in a logical way, beginning with the decision maker and moving to occupations, but also helps organize the process of decision making. Decision makers are seen as part of the context, for they have values, aptitudes, and.resources that are .relevant to . choices of occupations. For career decisiormakine, occupations are construed along dimensions that are most useful to the.decision maker. These dimeaSions are the ones that, in fhe'occupation, correspond to the values, aptitude's, and resource.dimensions of the decision makers. They are rewards; requisites, and investments. The goal of the decision, then, is the maximiiatiom of values satisfaction within the limits of aptitudes.and resources. Information also requires a-place in the decision-making pr,ocess, since decision makers require two claSses of informationinformation about occupations and information about themselves. Applications of., the context include development of a curriculUm for career decision, making, improvement of occupational information, and improved decision making: '.(YLB)

Cognitive Behavior and Information Processing under Conditions of Uncertainty

Abstract: : Over the past decade, research and synthesis of findings on decision making have led to the unequivocal conclusion that earlier conceptualizations about the decision process were either overly simplistic or lacking in veridicality. The nature of the decision tasks, and the conditions under which it is performed have a profound influence on the decision process. These effects include the decision maker's view of the process, and (probably) information processing strategies which the decision maker may be unaware of having chosen. Further, there is a growing body of literature which suggests that the nature of the decision process is strongly influenced by the organizational level at which the decision maker is located, i.e., what his critical functions in the organization are, and the nature of the cognitive skills he therefore must bring to the task. The purpose of the present paper is to present some of these data, together with some possible implications they have for decision making under conditions of uncertainty, and for risk management.

User interfaces for decision support systems: an overview

Abstract: Information Systems Working Papers Series

Modeling product development decision policies of managers and management students: Differences between subjective and relative weights

Abstract: This research adapted the behavioral decision theory modeling approach to capture product development decision policies. 29 students in a strategic management course, 38 students in an introductory management course, and 50 managers completed a simulated product development decision-making exercise. Significant policy differences were observed among the groups in terms of the average weights attributed to two of the criteria, and the internal consistency of the decision makers. Both the managers and students exhibited poor insight into their own decision as there were significant differences between their relative (objective) weights from the exercise and their subjective (stated) weights. Therefore, to accurately capture product development decision policies, one must observe multiple decisions rather than ask subjects to state their decision policies.

Lack of guidance for decision aid interface design

Abstract: Decision aids are being built by several research organizations. However, as noted by Wohl (1981), relatively few decision aids are in actual use. Problems with decision structuring methodology and failure to consult users during aid development are two reasons for this. A more important reason is the lack of general interface design guidelines directed specifically at decision aid designers. Three aspects of aid-user interaction--decision contingency, decision emergence, and the aid-user relationship--are issues which cannot be addressed by the decision structuring portion of aids but which require careful consideration during interface design. The development of a decision situation taxonomy which accounts for these issues is advocated as the starting point for general decision aid interface design guidance.