Showing papers on "Voting behavior published in 1971"

Short-Term Fluctuations in U.S. Voting Behavior, 1896–1964

Abstract: This paper develops several simple multivariate statistical models and applies them to explain fluctuations in the aggregate vote for the United States House of Representatives, over the period 1896-1964. The basic hypothesis underlying these models is that voters are rational in at least the limited sense that their decisions as to whether to vote for an incumbent administration depend on whether its performance has been “satisfactory” according to some simple standard. Because of data limitations, the analysis focuses on measures of economic performance, treating other aspects of an incumbent's performance, such as its handling of foreign affairs, as stochastic perturbations of the underlying relationship to be estimated. (Examination of residuals suggests this assumption is not unreasonable, at least during peacetime.) Possible effects of coattails from presidential races, of incumbency, and of secular trends in the underlying partisanship of the electorate are also taken into account. The models, estimated by maximum-likelihood methods, are found to be successful. Close to two-thirds of the variance in the vote series is accounted for, and the structural coefficients of the models are of the correct signs and of quite reasonable magnitudes. Economic growth, as measured by the changes in real per capita income, is the major economic variable; unemployment or inflation have little independent effect. Presidential coattails are also found to be of some importance.

Modern Politics and Government

Abstract: PART I: THE NATURE OF POLITICS The Study of Politics Politics, Power and Authority Classification of Governments Political Culture Globalization and the Influence of International Politics PART II: PARTIES, INTEREST GROUPS AND REPRESENTATION Political Parties and Electoral Systems Pressure Groups Representation, Elections and Voting Behaviour PART III: STRUCTURES OF GOVERNMENT Assemblies The Political Executive The Public Bureaucracy The Courts and the Political Process The Military and Politics PART IV: POLITICAL CHANGE Change in Political Systems

Bandwagon and Underdog Effects in Minimal-Information Elections*

Abstract: This investigation is based on an experimental study of voting behavior in what the author terms a minimal-information election. This type of election is characterized by a dearth of public information about election issues and partisan considerations, so that the campaign is waged primarily on the basis of the voters' attitudes toward the candidates as personalities. In general, the minimal-information election most often characterizes local nonpartisan contests. The experiment examined changes in voting that appeared to result from electioneering strategies designed to elicit “bandwagon” or “underdog” responses. These strategies consisted of presenting the “electorate” with the results of pre-election preferential polls, as well as qualitative information explicitly aimed at arousing the emotions of the voters. The experiment clearly demonstrated that mere poll results are insufficient to impel would-be bandwagon or underdog identifiers to switch their votes. Rather, this type of behavior does not appear until a strong qualitative stimulus sensitizes or cues bandwagon or underdog tendencies among the voters.

Theories in Search of a Curve: A Contextual Interpretation of Left Vote

Abstract: This article contends that the voting behavior of individuals depends not only upon their own traits but also upon the social context within which it takes place. Left voting depends upon the extent of class consciousness of the workers, where class consciousness is defined as the marginal rate of change of left voting when social structure changes. Marxist theory does not predict that workers will always vote for left parties but only that they will do so when the class is politically organized. According to this theory, the behavior of individuals depends upon the characteristics of the class and not vice versa. Several models can be constructed on the basis of these hypotheses. The choice of the proper function relating the variables is crucial for theory construction. This choice must be theoretically determined, i.e., it must follow from the premises of the theory. However, several theories may equally well explain the reality and the choice on the basis of empirical criteria is not always possible.

Media use and electoral choices: some political consequences of information exposure

Abstract: Increasing partisan use of television has created not only a new campaign style but a new set of political forces potentially capable of effecting widespread change in electoral behavior The question therefore arises what effect the use of mass media has had on electoral choices Analysis of five sets of presidential election survey data from the Survey Research Center lends support to the traditional intra-election floating voter hypothesis as well as its more generalized inter-election version-that voters least exposed to current political information tend to change their vote preferences more readily within a single campaign as well as switch their vote from one party to another at two successive elections The same body of data fails to support the "reformulated" intra-election version recently advanced by Converse-that the least exposed voters are highly stable in their voting preferences The author is Associate Professor and Chairman, Department of Political Science, University of Tulsa

Ethnic Politics and Racial Issues: Voting in Los Angeles:

Abstract: ALTHOUGH the assimilation of ethnic or racial minorities has been a widely respected theme in American politics, many social scientists have begun to question the validity of this claim by noting the persistence of ethnic voting behavior.' An investigation of ethnic politics in New Haven, for example, challenged the so-called "myth of the melting pot" by positing a theory of "mobilization," which suggested that ethnic attachments or loyalties have been perpetuated by the nomination of major ethnic leaders for high elective offices.2 Subsequently, another study asserted that, even though ethnic acculturation has developed in this country, extensive assimilation has not emerged as a prominent or enduring characteristic of American political behavior.3 Both arguments appeared to introduce some important qualifications of the concept of assimilation; but both of them also focused almost exclusively on the persistence of ethnic solidarity rather than upon the resistance of the established majority to the political demands of ethnic or racial minorities.

Consensus or Conflict? Political Behavior in the State Legislatures during the Jacksonian Era

Abstract: IN The Age of Jackson, Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr., fashioned a brilliant interpretation of party battles in the Jacksonian era.' Utilizing the work of progressive historians and his own research, he depicted a dynamic struggle between "conservative" and "liberal" forces representing the interest of certain economic groups, acting through the Whig and Democratic parties. Subsequently, students of the period have challenged many aspects of Schlesinger's work, but a bitter debate continues between those who, like Schlesinger, stress social cleavage and ideological differences,2 and those who emphasize an ideological consensus. The latter agree with Richard McCormick who said, "American parties are above all electoral machines, engaged in nominating and electing candidates, rather than, as Edmund Burke put it, being 'a body of men united for promoting by their joint endeavours the national interest upon some particular principle in which they are all agreed... " Although studies of congressional voting behavior

Democracy Under Pressure: An Introduction to the American Political System

Abstract: Preface. Part I: THE AMERICAN DEMOCRACY. 1. Government and the People. 2. The Constitutional Framework. 3. The Federal System. 4. Civil Liberties and Citizenship. 5. The Struggle for Equal Rights. Part II: POLITICS AND PEOPLE. 6. Public Opinion. 7. Interest Groups. 8. The Media and Politics. 9. Political Parties. 10. Political Campaigns and Candidates. 11. Voting Behavior and Elections. Part III: THE POLICYMAKERS. 12. The Congress. 13. The President. 14. The Bureaucracy. 15. Justice. Appendices: The Declaration of Independence. The Constitution of the United States of America. Presidents of the United States. Selections from the Federalist Papers. Endnotes. Glossary. Credits. Index. Presidential Election Results, 1940-2004.

Voting competence and mental illness.

Abstract: Does mental illness render a person incompetent to vote? Two studies highlight the similarity of voting behavior between patients hospitalized in a community state hospital and citizens living in the community. The results of the studies appear to dispel any need to maintain separate laws that govern the voting rights of citizens who are hospitalized for mental illness.

The Mid-Victorian Voter

Abstract: The Mid-Victorian Voter The attractions of voting studies for political scientists are well known, the reasons obvious. In most countries, the basic data are supplied in great profusion by government agencies; survey techniques in this area are sophisticated; above all, the problems readily lend themselves to quantification. In sum, the voting study brings the social scientist closer to the natural scientist than practically any other study, with all the advantages that that implies. The historian's contribution to voting studies is also well known. By their very nature such studies draw on historical data; for example, the longer the run of elections, the more material there is for testing hypotheses worked out initially on contemporary information. The use of historical data is, however, by no means exhausted, and in this article I hope to demonstrate that the advent of computer facilities has opened a rich vein which could well add new dimensions to the study of voting behavior. From the point of view of the political scientist qua political scientist, one of the major hindrances to voting studies is the fact that the ballot is now secret. To get information on individual voting behavior, historians today must use surveys, and these can, of course, be used only in the case of elections that have taken place in the recent past. Both the political scientist and the historian can, however, overcome this common obstacle if-so far as England is concerned-they study voting behavior before the passage of The Secret Ballot Act of 1872. Up to that time all voting in Parliamentary elections took place in public, and, since it was common for printers to publish lists of the actual votes recorded, access to the lists is relatively easy. The printed information commonly includes the name of the voter, his address, and the name or names of the candidates for whom he voted. Other kinds of nominative

The Politics of American Political Scientists

Abstract: At the heart of the debates which have resounded around political science these past few years are charges and countercharges as to the “politics” of the contenders. Terms like conservative, liberal and radical are no longer reserved for analysis of positions in the larger society; they have become part of the regular vocabulary with which political scientists evaluate their colleagues. This increase in visible and self-conscious political dissensus extends, of course, throughout the university, but it has left a special mark on political science and the other social sciences where the issues and objects of political disagreement are so enmeshed with the regular subject matter of the discipline.In spite of all of the discussion, and the now seemingly general recognition that the politics of members of the profession has a lot to do with its development and contributions, we still don't have very much firm information on the distribution of political views among the approximately 6,000 faculty members regularly engaged in the teaching of political science in the United States. There have been a number of studies, of course, of party identification and voting behavior, showing political science to be one of the most Democratic fields in academe.

Research Note on Political Correlates of Voter Participation: A Deviant Case Analysis

Abstract: This note attempts to show the explanatory limits of current generalizations about political participation behavior by analyzing a deviant case (West Virginia). Voter participation patterns in West Virginia cannot be explained in terms of traditional research findings based on socioeconomic variables. The present study therefore suggests a research framework that complements the customary socioeconomic and political output analysis. Its thesis, broadly stated, is that political style, culture, and organizational variables must be included in any paradigm that attempts to explain the relationships between state political systems and voting behavior patterns. The West Virginia data support this thesis.

Career Objectives, Group Feeling, and Legislative Party Voting Cohesion: The British Conservatives, 1959-68

Abstract: Voting cohesion has been of central concern to students of legislative politics at least since Lowell and Rice. Research on legislative-party voting behavior has grown rapidly in recent years both within and outside the United States. One significantly neglected field of inquiry, however, has been the British Conservative party. The parliamentary group of the Conservative party has a high degree of voting cohesion, and an analysis of its voting patterns can help to illuminate the bases upon which its voting cohesion has been built. The cohesion of the Conservatives is remarkably high. For the whole of the 1959-68 period, deviation from the leadership on twoor three-line whips was greater than ten percent of the backbenchers on only six divisions. This corresponds to a ratio of one vote out of approximately 300 votes, while the ratio was one to thirty for the French SFIO, one to six fcr the German CDU/CSU, one to five for the French Radical Party, and one to three for the United States parties.' What has led to such a high degree of voting cohesion? Speaking of Canadian parties, Epstein and Kornberg each postulate that the cohesion of these parties is a function of both the member's self

The 1971 Revolution in Indian Voting Behavior

Abstract: 7he most interesting and important questions about the Indian Parliamentary Elections of 1971 do not deal simply with what happened in the election, but rather with how voting patterns changed between the 1967 elections-or subsequent elections in several of the states-and those of 1971. What parties did voters desert to give Mrs. Gandhi the impressive 43.64% of the vote that produced 68% of the seats for the Congress (R) ? How much of her victory was a product of the failure of Congress (0) to perform as well as most observers expected? What share of the defections from Congress (0), the Samyukta Socialist Party (SSP) and the Swatantra Party was due to the alliance which those parties formed with the more communalminded Jan Sangh? To what extent did the swing of Muslim and scheduled caste voters to Congress (R) account for the party's victory? To provide answers to these questions one must compare the results of the 1971 election with previous elections. Valid comparisons are extremely hard to make, however, because the basic parameters of the election situation invariably change quite substantially from one election to another in India. Two types of changes create the greatest problems for the analyst. First, the patterns of candidacy are different for each election. Not only the total number of candidates, but the distribution of those candidates among the parties often changes quite radically from one election to the next. Since the percentage of Jan Sangh candidates dropped from 10.5% in 1967 to 5.6% in 1971, we learn very little from the fact that the party's share of the vote declined from 9.3% to 7.5%. We need to know how much of that decline was due to the reduced number of Jan Sangh candidates and how much to a real loss in voter support. Or did, in fact, the Jan Sangh gain voter support? One must put the 1967 voting figures in terms that are comparable to those of 1971 in order to find out. The second problem complicating the comparison of Indian elections is that new political parties appear in most elections and the party structure of the earlier election must be adjusted accordingly. Of most obvious im-

Democratic Political Campaigning in Latin America: A Typological Approach to Cross-Cultural Research

Abstract: The study of voting behavior and the study of the behavior of campaigners are both important in understanding politics. To date, social scientists have concentrated much more sophisticated attention upon the systematic study of voters. In the past quarter-century, students of voting in America, Britain and other countries have developed rigorous and elaborate techniques for analyzing influences upon voting behavior. Unfortunately, we do not have a similarly sophisticated conceptual framework for studying the behavior of campaigners. The literature of campaigning includes many diverse types of books. . . . Concentration upon describing very particular details of one election does not, however, permit the testing of generalizations by reference to several campaigns.'

Behavioral approaches to judicial decision-making: toward a theory of judicial voting behavior*

Abstract: How and why judges decide cases the way they do has held a certain fascination for lawyers, political scientists, and even judges themselves In the first four decades of the twentieth century, the so-called legal realists recognized the wide range of discretion at the disposal of judges and mounted an assault on the prevailing notions of mechanical jurisprudence1 In more recent years, primarily political scientists have been striving to more systematically analyze the genesis of judicial decisional behavior Their work has been largely characterized by the use of social science theory and methods to guide research2 Although some of this work has met with stern resistance from within both the political science3 and the legal4 professions, the field of judicial behavior appears to be firmly established This paper will review the major behavioral approaches to judicial decision-making (particularly voting behavior) and propose a model of judicial voting behavior which incorporates them (ie, the attitudinal, background, small group, fact pattern, and role approaches)

Early Election Returns and the Voting Behavior of Adolescent Voters1

Abstract: High school students participated in a field experiment that tested the effects of exposure to early election returns in a nonpartisan referendum. On a pretest of attitudes, students stated their preferences on the issue of the school's grading policy. One week later, just before voting, subjects in the experimental condition received information announcing the probable outcome of the election. There was a significant relationship between class achievement level and (a) likelihood of changing vote, and (b) the direction of change. Students in the brighter classes changed their votes less frequently, but when they changed their preferences they showed a greater bandwagon effect. Students in the classes of lower academic achievement changed their votes more frequently, but when they changed their preferences they showed a greater underdog effect. Differences between the more typical political election in which bandwagon and underdog effects are seldom reported and the experimental election were discussed.

Racial Attitudes and the Wallace Vote: A Study of the 1968 Election in Memphis

Abstract: This is a study of voting behavior in the 1968 presidential election, with the vote for George C. Wallace of the American Independent Party as the focus of analysis. The setting is Memphis, Tennessee, and the method is multivariate contingency analysis of survey data. Several factors motivated the authors to conduct this research. First, the emergence of George Wallace and the American Independent Party as an important political force in the 1968 election aroused much discussion and speculation. Second, although there have been a few studies conducted by social scientists of the Wallace movement, their analyses have been primarily based on aggregate data. Third, thus far analysis of Wallace support has been conducted only in northern cities and not in the South. Fourth, an understanding both of the nature and the scope of the Wallace phenomena should in crease our understanding of the political climate of the United States and the role of third parties.

Cuing and the Open System of Educational Politics

Abstract: Local educational administrators and federal bureaucrats in the Office of Education and Department of Health, Education and Welfare are charged with making decisions on education policy. They are public officials. Public, in a narrow sense of the term, derives from their employment by agencies of government supported with tax dollars. Public, in a more significant sense, implies that educational decision makers not only act with some sort of public interest guiding them, but also that they somehow respond to and reflect the public will. That “federal bureaucrats off in Washington” are out of touch with local needs is a long held, if unsubstantiated, belief sardonically held by many local schoolmen. But, recent research now asserts that local educational decision makers are out of touch; that they neither respond to nor reflect the public will. Quite reputable scholars report that local educational authorities are “unpublic officials” because of their insulation and autonomy. In system theory parlance, these researchers contend that

A note on “an axiomatic model of voting bodies”

Abstract: In the article, "An Axiomatic Model of Voting Bodies," (in this Review, June, 1970, pp. 449-470) Brams and O'Leary use a simple combinatorial argument to derive the conditional probability of two randomly chosen members of a voting body agreeing on a particular issue, given the total number of members that voted each way on the issue. They proceed to generate a model of voting behavior over an entire set of issues by assuming (Axiom 2) that the joint distribution of agreements across issues is the distribution generated by the product of the conditional marginal distributions of agreement on each issue, given the total number of votes cast each way on the issue. This axiom forces the researcher to assume not only that voting patterns vary randomly from issue to issue, but also that the finite set of issues being studied displays the mathematical property of complete independence of voting across issues. The purpose of this note is to show that the assumption of independence is neither realistic nor necessary. Suppose that a voting body which contained three members voted on four issues, and that the results are presented in Table 1:

An Ecological Analysis of Voting Behavior in Baton Rouge: From Strom Thurmond to George Wallace

Abstract: For at least twenty years three homogeneous areas have comprised the ecological pattern of Baton Rouge, divided along at least two dimensions-one occupational (manual-nonmanual) and the other ethnic (black-white). Presidential voting data by precincts from 1948-68 were subjected to analysis of variance. After higher than expected Republican support earlier, in the last two elections black areas have voted strongly Democratic. Upper-white and white labor voters seem to be searching for a nonDemocrat party alternative in American presidential politics. This is an ecological study of presidential voting on the local precinct level. It covers a time span of twenty years in which six elections have taken place. The city is found within the southern region which faced anew the civil rights issue in this period and the votes of its residents are seen as indicators of accommodation to this experience. A study of outcomes in the 1948 elections had found that wide urban-industrial developments in Louisiana hastened by World War 2 provided a city electorate which included a growing majority in working-class precincts whose influence at that time was a variable of unknown significance (Howard, 1952). Questions were raised whether the vote of this category would follow the Democrat tendency found in the nation or whether events would hasten the development of two-party politics. Since then, voting behavior in major Louisiana cities has been traced among three types of precincts: upper-white, white labor, and Negro (Howard and Brent, 1966). Reference to other than presidential elections showed potentials of a more open two-party politics as an upper-white and Negro-white labor cleavage was discovered in school board, mayorality, the gubernatorial elections. But, as the issue of school desegregation made its weight felt in presidential politics, a basic tendency found could be characterized as a distinct anti-Democrat, pro-conservative leaning. The present research, an intensive study of one local area, where the techniques of ecological aggregate analysis can be used to advantage, brings us up to date.

The Dominant Class Alignment

Abstract: In contemporary interpretations of British voting behavior class is accorded the leading role. Pulzer was entirely in the academic main stream when he wrote, “class is the basis of British party politics; all else is embellishment and detail.”1 The same view is echoed among party activists. The Labour canvasser is warned away from the surburban areas “lest he stir them up,” while some Conservative agents can he heard dismissing public housing areas as “90 per cent Socialist.” There is, in fact, evidence that party allegiance has followed class lines more strongly in Britain than anywhere else in the English-speaking world.2