Showing papers by "Chris D. Thomas published in 2007"

Direct and indirect effects of climate and habitat factors on butterfly diversity

Abstract: Many factors, including climate, resource availability, and habitat diversity, have been proposed as determinants of global diversity, but the links among them have rarely been studied. Using structural equation modeling (SEM), we investigated direct and indirect effects of climate variables, host-plant richness, and habitat diversity on butterfly species richness across Britain, at 20-km grid resolution. These factors were all important determinants of butterfly diversity, but their relative contributions differed between habitat generalists and specialists, and whether the effects were direct or indirect. Climate variables had strong effects on habitat generalists, whereas host-plant richness and habitat diversity contributed relatively more for habitat specialists. Considering total effects (direct and indirect together), climate variables had the strongest link to butterfly species richness for all groups of species. The results suggest that different mechanistic hypotheses to explain species richness may be more appropriate for habitat generalists and specialists, with generalists hypothesized to show direct physiological limitations and specialists additionally being constrained by trophic interactions (climate affecting host-plant richness).

Future novel threats and opportunities facing UK biodiversity identified by horizon scanning

Abstract: 1. Horizon scanning is an essential tool for environmental scientists if they are to contribute to the evidence base for Government, its agencies and other decision makers to devise and implement environmental policies. The implication of not foreseeing issues that are foreseeable is illustrated by the contentious responses to genetically modified herbicide-tolerant crops in the UK, and by challenges surrounding biofuels, foot and mouth disease, avian influenza and climate change. 2. A total of 35 representatives from organizations involved in environmental policy, academia, scientific journalism and horizon scanning were asked to use wide consultation to identify the future novel or step changes in threats to, and opportunities for, biodiversity that might arise in the UK up to 2050, but that had not been important in the recent past. At least 452 people were consulted. 3. Cases for 195 submitted issues were distributed to all participants for comments and additions. All issues were scored (probability, hazard, novelty and overall score) prior to a 2-day workshop. Shortlisting to 41 issues and then the final 25 issues, together with refinement of these issues, took place at the workshop during another two rounds of discussion and scoring. 4. We provide summaries of the 25 shortlisted issues and outline the research needs. 5. We suggest that horizon scanning incorporating wide consultation with providers and users of environmental science is used by environmental policy makers and researchers. This can be used to identify gaps in knowledge and policy, and to identify future key issues for biodiversity, including those arising from outside the domains of ecology and biodiversity. 6. Synthesis and applications. Horizon scanning can be used by environmental policy makers and researchers to identify gaps in knowledge and policy. Drawing on the experience, expertise and research of policy advisors, academics and journalists, this exercise helps set the agenda for policy, practice and research.

Minimum viable metapopulation size, extinction debt, and the conservation of a declining species.

Abstract: A key question facing conservation biologists is whether declines in species' distributions are keeping pace with landscape change, or whether current distributions overestimate probabilities of future persistence. We use metapopulations of the marsh fritillary butterfly Euphydryas aurinia in the United Kingdom as a model system to test for extinction debt in a declining species. We derive parameters for a metapopulation model (incidence function model, IFM) using information from a 625-km2 landscape where habitat patch occupancy, colonization, and extinction rates for E. aurinia depend on patch connectivity, area, and quality. We then show that habitat networks in six extant metapopulations in 16-km2 squares were larger, had longer modeled persistence times (using IFM), and higher metapopulation capacity (lambdaM) than six extinct metapopulations. However, there was a > 99% chance that one or more of the six extant metapopulations would go extinct in 100 years in the absence of further habitat loss. For 11 out of 12 networks, minimum areas of habitat needed for 95% persistence of metapopulation simulations after 100 years ranged from 80 to 142 ha (approximately 5-9% of land area), depending on the spatial location of habitat. The area of habitat exceeded the estimated minimum viable metapopulation size (MVM) in only two of the six extant metapopulations, and even then by only 20%. The remaining four extant networks were expected to suffer extinction in 15-126 years. MVM was consistently estimated as approximately 5% of land area based on a sensitivity analysis of IFM parameters and was reduced only marginally (to approximately 4%) by modeling the potential impact of long-distance colonization over wider landscapes. The results suggest a widespread extinction debt among extant metapopulations of a declining species, necessitating conservation management or reserve designation even in apparent strongholds. For threatened species, metapopulation modeling is a potential means to identify landscapes near to extinction thresholds, to which conservation measures can be targeted for the best chance of success.

Multispecies conservation planning: identifying landscapes for the conservation of viable populations using local and continental species priorities

Abstract: Summary 1 Faced with unpredictable environmental change, conservation managers face the dual challenges of protecting species throughout their ranges and protecting areas where populations are most likely to persist in the long term. The former can be achieved by protecting locally rare species, to the potential detriment of protecting species where they are least endangered and most likely to survive in the long term. 2 Using British butterflies as a model system, we compared the efficacy of two methods of identifying persistent areas of species’ distributions: a single-species approach and a new multispecies prioritization tool called ZONATION. This tool identifies priority areas using population dynamic principles (prioritizing areas that contain concentrations of populations of each species) and the reserve selection principle of complementarity. 3 ZONATION was generally able to identify the best landscapes for target (i.e. conservation priority) species. This ability was improved by assigning higher numerical weights to target species and implementing a clustering procedure to identify coherent biological management units. 4 Weighting British species according to their European rather than UK status substantially increased the protection offered to species at risk throughout Europe. The representation of species that are rare or at risk in the UK, but not in Europe, was not greatly reduced when European weights were used, although some species of UK-only concern were no longer assigned protection inside their best landscapes. The analysis highlights potential consequences of implementing parochial vs. wider-world priorities within a region. 5 Synthesis and applications. Wherever possible, reserve planning should incorporate an understanding of population processes to identify areas that are likely to support persistent populations. While the multispecies prioritization tool ZONATION compared favourably to the selection of ‘best’ areas for individual species, a user-defined input of species weights was required to produce satisfactory solutions for long-term conservation. Weighting species can allow international conservation priorities to be incorporated into regional action plans but the potential consequences of any putative solution should always be assessed to ensure that no individual species of local concern will be threatened.

Using habitat distribution models to evaluate large-scale landscape priorities for spatially dynamic species

Abstract: Summary 1. Large-scale conservation planning requires the identification of priority areas in which species have a high likelihood of long-term persistence. This typically requires high spatial resolution data on species and their habitat. Such data are rarely available at a large geographical scale, so distribution modelling is often required to identify the locations of priority areas. However, distribution modelling may be difficult when a species is either not recorded, or not present, at many of the locations that are actually suitable for it. This is an inherent problem for species that exhibit metapopulation dynamics. 2. Rather than basing species distribution models on species locations, we investigated the consequences of predicting the distribution of suitable habitat, and thus inferring species presence/ absence. We used habitat surveys to define a vegetation category which is suitable for a threatened species that has spatially dynamic populations (the butterfly Euphydryas aurinia ), and used this as the response variable in distribution models. Thus, we developed a practical strategy to obtain high resolution (1 ha) large scale conservation solutions for E. aurinia in Wales, UK. 3. Habitat-based distribution models had high discriminatory power. They could generalize over a large spatial extent and on average predicted 86% of the current distribution of E. aurinia in Wales. Models based on species locations had lower discriminatory power and were poorer at generalizing throughout Wales. 4. Surfaces depicting the connectivity of each grid cell were calculated for the predicted distribution of E. aurinia habitat. Connectivity surfaces provided a distance-weighted measure of the concentration of habitat in the surrounding landscape, and helped identify areas where the persistence of E. aurinia populations is expected to be highest. These identified successfully known areas of high conservation priority for E. aurinia . These connectivity surfaces allow conservation planning to take into account long-term spatial population dynamics, which would be impossible without being able to predict the species’ distribution over a large spatial extent. 5. Synthesis and applications . Where species location data are unsuitable for building high resolution predictive habitat distribution models, habitat data of sufficient quality can be easier to collect. We show that they can perform as well as or better than species data as a response variable. When coupled with a technique to translate distribution model predictions into landscape priority (such as connectivity calculations), we believe this approach will be a powerful tool for large-scale conservation planning.

A sixth mass extinction

Abstract: Past species losses have much to teach us about current and future declines due to human activity.