Showing papers by "Greg Kopp published in 2016"

Nominal values for selected solar and planetary quantities: iau 2015 resolution b3

Abstract: In this brief communication we provide the rationale for and the outcome of the International Astronomical Union (IAU) resolution vote at the XXIXth General Assembly in Honolulu, Hawaii, in 2015, on recommended nominal conversion constants for selected solar and planetary properties. The problem addressed by the resolution is a lack of established conversion constants between solar and planetary values and SI units: a missing standard has caused a proliferation of solar values (e.g., solar radius, solar irradiance, solar luminosity, solar effective temperature, and solar mass parameter) in the literature, with cited solar values typically based on best estimates at the time of paper writing. As precision of observations increases, a set of consistent values becomes increasingly important. To address this, an IAU Working Group on Nominal Units for Stellar and Planetary Astronomy formed in 2011, uniting experts from the solar, stellar, planetary, exoplanetary, and fundamental astronomy, as well as from general standards fields to converge on optimal values for nominal conversion constants. The effort resulted in the IAU 2015 Resolution B3, passed at the IAU General Assembly by a large majority. The resolution recommends the use of nominal solar and planetary values, which are by definition exact and are expressed in SI units. These nominal values should be understood as conversion factors only, not as the true solar/planetary properties or current best estimates. Authors and journal editors are urged to join in using the standard values set forth by this resolution in future work and publications to help minimize further confusion.

Nominal values for selected solar and planetary quantities: IAU 2015 Resolution B3

Abstract: In this brief communication we provide the rationale for, and the outcome of the International Astronomical Union (IAU) resolution vote at the XXIX-th General Assembly in Honolulu, Hawaii, in 2015, on recommended nominal conversion constants for selected solar and planetary properties. The problem addressed by the resolution is a lack of established conversion constants between solar and planetary values and SI units: a missing standard has caused a proliferation of solar values (e.g., solar radius, solar irradiance, solar luminosity, solar effective temperature and solar mass parameter) in the literature, with cited solar values typically based on best estimates at the time of paper writing. As precision of observations increases, a set of consistent values becomes increasingly important. To address this, an IAU Working Group on Nominal Units for Stellar and Planetary Astronomy formed in 2011, uniting experts from the solar, stellar, planetary, exoplanetary and fundamental astronomy, as well as from general standards fields to converge on optimal values for nominal conversion constants. The effort resulted in the IAU 2015 Resolution B3, passed at the IAU General Assembly by a large majority. The resolution recommends the use of nominal solar and planetary values, which are by definition exact and are expressed in SI units. These nominal values should be understood as conversion factors only, not as the true solar/planetary properties or current best estimates. Authors and journal editors are urged to join in using the standard values set forth by this resolution in future work and publications to help minimize further confusion.

Magnitudes and timescales of total solar irradiance variability

Abstract: The Sun’s net radiative output varies on timescales of minutes to gigayears. Direct measurements of the total solar irradiance (TSI) show changes in the spatially- and spectrally-integrated radiant energy on timescales as short as minutes to as long as a solar cycle. Variations of ~0.01% over a few minutes are caused by the ever-present superposition of convection and oscillations with very large solar flares on rare occasion causing slightly-larger measurable signals. On timescales of days to weeks, changing photospheric magnetic activity affects solar brightness at the ~0.1% level. The 11-year solar cycle shows variations of comparable magnitude with irradiances peaking near solar maximum. Secular variations are more difficult to discern, being limited by instrument stability and the relatively short duration of the space-borne record. Historical reconstructions of the Sun’s irradiance based on indicators of solar-surface magnetic activity, such as sunspots, faculae, and cosmogenic isotope records, suggest solar brightness changes over decades to millennia, although the magnitudes of these variations have high uncertainties due to the indirect historical records on which they rely. Stellar evolution affects yet longer timescales and is responsible for the greatest solar variabilities. In this manuscript I summarize the Sun’s variability magnitudes over different temporal regimes and discuss the irradiance record’s relevance for solar and climate studies as well as for detections of exo-solar planets transiting Sun-like stars.

Magnitudes and Timescales of Total Solar Irradiance Variability

Abstract: The Sun's net radiative output varies on timescales of minutes to gigayears. Direct measurements of the total solar irradiance (TSI) show changes in the spatially- and spectrally-integrated radiant energy on timescales as short as minutes to as long as a solar cycle. Variations of ~0.01 % over a few minutes are caused by the ever-present superposition of convection and oscillations with very large solar flares on rare occasion causing slightly-larger measureable signals. On timescales of days to weeks, changing photospheric magnetic activity affects solar brightness at the ~0.1 % level. The 11-year solar cycle shows variations of comparable magnitude with irradiances peaking near solar maximum. Secular variations are more difficult to discern, being limited by instrument stability and the relatively short duration of the space-borne record. Historical reconstructions of the Sun's irradiance based on indicators of solar-surface magnetic activity, such as sunspots, faculae, and cosmogenic isotope records, suggest solar brightness changes over decades to millennia, although the magnitudes of these variations have high uncertainties due to the indirect historical records on which they rely. Stellar evolution affects yet longer timescales and is responsible for the greatest solar variabilities. In this manuscript I summarize the Sun's variability magnitudes over different temporal regimes and discuss the irradiance record's relevance for solar and climate studies as well as for detections of exo-solar planets transiting Sun-like stars.

The Impact of the Revised Sunspot Record on Solar Irradiance Reconstructions

Abstract: Reliable historical records of the total solar irradiance (TSI) are needed to assess the extent to which long-term variations in the Sun’s radiant energy that is incident upon Earth may exacerbate (or mitigate) the more dominant warming in recent centuries that is due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. We investigate the effects that the new Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO) sunspot-number time series may have on model reconstructions of the TSI. In contemporary TSI records, variations on timescales longer than about a day are dominated by the opposing effects of sunspot darkening and facular brightening. These two surface magnetic features, retrieved either from direct observations or from solar-activity proxies, are combined in TSI models to reproduce the current TSI observational record. Indices that manifest solar-surface magnetic activity, in particular the sunspot-number record, then enable reconstructing historical TSI. Revisions of the sunspot-number record therefore affect the magnitude and temporal structure of TSI variability on centennial timescales according to the model reconstruction methods that are employed. We estimate the effects of the new SILSO record on two widely used TSI reconstructions, namely the NRLTSI2 and the SATIRE models. We find that the SILSO record has little effect on either model after 1885, but leads to solar-cycle fluctuations with greater amplitude in the TSI reconstructions prior. This suggests that many eighteenth- and nineteenth-century cycles could be similar in amplitude to those of the current Modern Maximum. TSI records based on the revised sunspot data do not suggest a significant change in Maunder Minimum TSI values, and from comparing this era to the present, we find only very small potential differences in the estimated solar contributions to the climate with this new sunspot record.

The Impact of the Revised Sunspot Record on Solar Irradiance Reconstructions

Abstract: Reliable historical records of total solar irradiance (TSI) are needed for climate change attribution and research to assess the extent to which long-term variations in the Sun's radiant energy incident on the Earth may exacerbate (or mitigate) the more dominant warming in recent centuries due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. We investigate potential impacts of the new Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO) sunspot-number time series on model reconstructions of TSI. In contemporary TSI records, variations on time scales longer than about a day are dominated by the opposing effects of sunspot darkening and facular brightening. These two surface magnetic features, retrieved either from direct observations or from solar activity proxies, are combined in TSI models to reproduce the current TSI observational record. Indices that manifest solar-surface magnetic activity, in particular the sunspot-number record, then enable the reconstruction of historical TSI. Revisions to the sunspot-number record therefore affect the magnitude and temporal structure of TSI variability on centennial time scales according to the model reconstruction methodologies. We estimate the effects of the new SILSO record on two widely used TSI reconstructions, namely the NRLTSI2 and the SATIRE models. We find that the SILSO record has little effect on either model after 1885 but leads to greater amplitude solar-cycle fluctuations in TSI reconstructions prior, suggesting many 18th and 19th century cycles could be similar in amplitude to those of the current Modern Maximum. TSI records based on the revised sunspot data do not suggest a significant change in Maunder Minimum TSI values, and comparing that era to the present we find only very small potential differences in estimated solar contributions to climate with this new sunspot record.

Radiometric flight results from the HyperSpectral Imager for Climate Science (HySICS)

Abstract: . Long-term monitoring of the Earth-reflected solar spectrum is necessary for discerning and attributing changes in climate. High radiometric accuracy enables such monitoring over decadal timescales with non-overlapping instruments, and high precision enables trend detection on shorter timescales. The HyperSpectral Imager for Climate Science (HySICS) is a visible and near-infrared spatial/spectral imaging spectrometer intended to ultimately achieve ∼ 0.2 % radiometric accuracies of Earth scenes from space, providing an order-of-magnitude improvement over existing space-based imagers. On-orbit calibrations from measurements of spectral solar irradiances acquired by direct views of the Sun enable radiometric calibrations with superior long-term stability than is currently possible with any manmade spaceflight light source or detector. Solar and lunar observations enable in-flight focal-plane array (FPA) flat-fielding and other instrument calibrations. The HySICS has demonstrated this solar cross-calibration technique for future spaceflight instrumentation via two high-altitude balloon flights. The second of these two flights acquired high-radiometric-accuracy measurements of the ground, clouds, the Earth's limb, and the Moon. Those results and the details of the uncertainty analyses of those flight data are described.

Climate Change Observation Accuracy: Requirements and Economic Value

Abstract: This presentation will summarize a new quantitative approach to determining the required accuracy for climate change observations. Using this metric, most current global satellite observations struggle to meet this accuracy level. CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory) is a new satellite mission designed to resolve this challenge is by achieving advances of a factor of 10 for reflected solar spectra and a factor of 3 to 5 for thermal infrared spectra. The CLARREO spectrometers can serve as SI traceable benchmarks for the Global Satellite Intercalibration System (GSICS) and greatly improve the utility of a wide range of LEO and GEO infrared and reflected solar satellite sensors for climate change observations (e.g. CERES, MODIS, VIIIRS, CrIS, IASI, Landsat, etc). A CLARREO Pathfinder mission for flight on the International Space Station is included in the U.S. Presidentâ€"TM"s fiscal year 2016 budget, with launch in 2019 or 2020. Providing more accurate decadal change trends can in turn lead to more rapid narrowing of key climate science uncertainties such as cloud feedback and climate sensitivity. A new study has been carried out to quantify the economic benefits of such an advance and concludes that the economic value is ~ $9 Trillion U.S. dollars. The new value includes the cost of carbon emissions reductions.