Showing papers by "Guy F. Midgley published in 2011"

Improving assessment and modelling of climate change impacts on global terrestrial biodiversity

Abstract: Understanding how species and ecosystems respond to climate change has become a major focus of ecology and conservation biology. Modelling approaches provide important tools for making future projections, but current models of the climate-biosphere interface remain overly simplistic, undermining the credibility of projections. We identify five ways in which substantial advances could be made in the next few years: (i) improving the accessibility and efficiency of biodiversity monitoring data, (ii) quantifying the main determinants of the sensitivity of species to climate change, (iii) incorporating community dynamics into projections of biodiversity responses, (iv) accounting for the influence of evolutionary processes on the response of species to climate change, and (v) improving the biophysical rule sets that define functional groupings of species in global models.

Modelling horses for novel climate courses: insights from projecting potential distributions of native and alien Australian acacias with correlative and mechanistic models

Abstract: Aim Investigate the relative abilities of different bioclimatic models and data sets to project species ranges in novel environments utilizing the natural experiment in biogeography provided by Australian Acacia species. Location Australia, South Africa. Methods We built bioclimatic models for Acacia cyclops and Acacia pycnantha using two discriminatory correlative models (MaxEnt and Boosted Regression Trees) and a mechanistic niche model (CLIMEX). We fitted models using two training data sets: native-range data only (‘restricted’) and all available global data excluding South Africa (‘full’). We compared the ability of these techniques to project suitable climate for independent records of the species in South Africa. In addition, we assessed the global potential distributions of the species to projected climate change. Results All model projections assessed against their training data, the South African data and globally were statistically significant. In South Africa and globally, the additional information contained in the full data set generally improved model sensitivity, but at the expense of increased modelled prevalence, particularly in extrapolation areas for the correlative models. All models projected some climatically suitable areas in South Africa not currently occupied by the species. At the global scale, widespread and biologically unrealistic projections by the correlative models were explained by open-ended response curves, a problem which was not always addressed by broader background climate space or by the extra information in the full data set. In contrast, the global projections for CLIMEX were more conservative. Projections into 2070 indicated a polewards shift in climate suitability and a decrease in model interpolation area. Main conclusions Our results highlight the importance of carefully interpreting model projections in novel climates, particularly for correlative models. Much work is required to ensure bioclimatic models performed in a robust and ecologically plausible manner in novel climates. We explore reasons for variations between models and suggest methods and techniques for future improvements.

A fundamental, eco-hydrological basis for niche segregation in plant communities

Abstract: • Ecologists still puzzle over how plant species manage to coexist with one another while competing for the same essential resources. The classic answer for animal communities is that species occupy different niches, but how plants do this is more difficult to determine. We previously found niche segregation along fine-scale hydrological gradients in European wet meadows and proposed that the mechanism might be a general one, especially in communities that experience seasonal saturation. • We quantified the hydrological niches of 96 species from eight fynbos communities in the biodiversity hotspot of the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa and 99 species from 18 lowland wet meadow communities in the UK. Niche overlap was computed for all combinations of species. • Despite the extreme functional and phylogenetic differences between the fynbos and wet meadow communities, an identical trade-off (i.e. specialization of species towards tolerance of aeration and/or drying stress) was found to cause segregation along fine-scale hydrological gradients. • This study not only confirms the predicted generality of hydrological niche segregation, but also emphasizes its importance for structuring plant communities. Eco-hydrological niche segregation will have implications for conservation in habitats that face changing hydrology caused by water abstraction and climate change.

Increasing impacts of climate change upon ecosystems with increasing global mean temperature rise

Abstract: In a meta-analysis we integrate peer-reviewed studies that provide quantified estimates of future projected ecosystem changes related to quantified projected local or global climate changes. In an advance on previous analyses, we reference all studies to a common pre-industrial base-line for temperature, employing up-scaling techniques where necessary, detailing how impacts have been projected on every continent, in the oceans, and for the globe, for a wide range of ecosystem types and taxa. Dramatic and substantive projected increases of climate change impacts upon ecosystems are revealed with increasing annual global mean temperature rise above the pre-industrial mean (ΔTg). Substantial negative impacts are commonly projected as ΔTg reaches and exceeds 2°C, especially in biodiversity hotspots. Compliance with the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (Article 2) requires that greenhouse gas concentrations be stabilized within a time frame “sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change”. Unless ΔTg is constrained to below 2°C at most, results here imply that it will be difficult to achieve compliance. This underscores the need to limit greenhouse gas emissions by accelerating mitigation efforts and by protecting existing ecosystems from greenhouse-gas producing land use change processes such as deforestation.

Interrogating recent range changes in South African birds: confounding signals from land use and climate change present a challenge for attribution

Abstract: Aim Apparent anthropogenic warming has been underway in South Africa for several decades, a period over which significant range shifts have been observed in some indigenous bird species. We asked whether these range shifts by birds are clearly consistent with either climate change or land use change being the primary driver. Location South Africa. Methods We categorized recent range changes among 408 South African terrestrial bird species and, using generalized linear mixed models, analysed ecological attributes of those species that have and have not changed their ranges. Results Fifty-six of the 408 taxa studied have undergone significant range shifts. Most extended their ranges towards the south (towards cooler latitudes, consistent with climate-change drivers) or west (towards drier and warmer habitats, inconsistent with climate drivers but consistent with land use drivers); very few moved east or north. Both southward and westward movers were habitat generalists. Furthermore, southward movers were mobile taxa (migrants and nomads), whereas westward movers were associated with human-modified elements in the landscape, such as croplands, plantations or buildings. Main conclusions The results suggest that both land use changes and climate change may simultaneously be influencing dynamic range shifts by South African birds, but separating the relative strengths of these two drivers is challenging, not least because both are operating concurrently and may influence some species simultaneously. Those species that respond to land use change by contracting their ranges are likely to be among the species that will be most impacted by climate change if land use practices with negative impacts are occurring in areas anticipated to become climatic refugia for these species. This highlights a pressing need to develop dynamic models of species' potential range shifts and changing abundances that incorporate population and dispersal processes, as well as ecological processes that influence habitat suitability.

Potential responses of terrestrial biodiversity in Southern Africa to anthropogenic climate change

Abstract: Key studies supported by species-level data collection have provided early indications of the potential implications of unmitigated change for the ecosystems and biodiversity of southern Africa. These suggest a significant threat to biodiversity, both from changing bioclimatic suitability and changing atmospheric CO2 level that seems to affect the competitive balance between woody and herbaceous plants in the dominant savanna biome of this region. Modeling efforts suggest significant implications of unmitigated climate change for this region, but assumptions underpinning methods such as bioclimatic modeling must be recognized, some of which might lead to over estimates of the rate and extent of the potential impacts. General trends and level of coincidence between various types of studies do support a high degree of concern for a substantial portion of southern African biodiversity under unmitigated climate-change scenarios. The most significant changes in ecosystem structure (both increases and decreases in woody plant cover), and associated faunal diversity changes, are projected in the dominant savanna vegetation type in this region, while the most significant biodiversity loss is projected for the winter rainfall region. Follow-up work to detect early signs of climate change identify regions of high- and low-potential impacts, and experimental work to test some important hypotheses relating to the future evolution of climate-change impacts across the region are very few and urgently required.

Effects of harvesting flowers from shrubs on the persistence and abundance of wild shrub populations at multiple spatial extents.

Abstract: Wildflower harvesting is an economically important activity of which the ecological effects are poorly understood. We assessed how harvesting of flowers affects shrub persistence and abundance at multiple spatial extents. To this end, we built a process-based model to examine the mean persistence and abundance of wild shrubs whose flowers are subject to harvest (serotinous Proteaceae in the South African Cape Floristic Region). First, we conducted a general sensitivity analysis of how harvesting affects persistence and abundance at nested spatial extents. For most spatial extents and combinations of demographic parameters, persistence and abundance of flowering shrubs decreased abruptly once harvesting rate exceeded a certain threshold. At larger extents, metapopulations supported higher harvesting rates before their persistence and abundance decreased, but persistence and abundance also decreased more abruptly due to harvesting than at smaller extents. This threshold rate of harvest varied with species' dispersal ability, maximum reproductive rate, adult mortality, probability of extirpation or local extinction, strength of Allee effects, and carrying capacity. Moreover, spatial extent interacted with Allee effects and probability of extirpation because both these demographic properties affected the response of local populations to harvesting more strongly than they affected the response of metapopulations. Subsequently, we simulated the effects of harvesting on three Cape Floristic Region Proteaceae species and found that these species reacted differently to harvesting, but their persistence and abundance decreased at low rates of harvest. Our estimates of harvesting rates at maximum sustainable yield differed from those of previous investigations, perhaps because researchers used different estimates of demographic parameters, models of population dynamics, and spatial extent than we did. Good demographic knowledge and careful identification of the spatial extent of interest increases confidence in assessments and monitoring of the effects of harvesting. Our general sensitivity analysis improved understanding of harvesting effects on metapopulation dynamics and allowed qualitative assessment of the probability of extirpation of poorly studied species.

Life on the edge: rare and restricted episodes of a pan‐tropical mutualism adapting to drier climates

Abstract: • The fig tree-fig wasp obligate pollination mutualism has strong ancestral affinities with tropical communities, but is present in much drier contemporary biomes, especially at higher latitudes at the edge of their range. The extent to which adaptation to environmental variables is evolutionarily conserved and whether environmental differences function in ecological speciation of the mutualism are unknown. • Here we use climate models and phylogenetic reconstructions to test whether the Ficus-fig wasp mutualism has adapted and radiated into drier climates and led to ecological speciation in both plant and insect. • The results showed phylogenetic correspondence between closely related Ficus species with either savanna, forest, or riparian habitat categories, were most strongly explained by both climate and environmental variables. Rare episodes of adaptation to dry apotypic conditions have resulted in substantial radiations into savanna. • Inferences were consistent with predictions of niche conservatism and support the postulate that ecological speciation of the mutualism occurs, but under contrasting and intertwined circumstances among plant-pollinator adaptation and tolerance to the environment.

Climate Change Impact on Quiver Trees in Arid Namibia and South Africa

Abstract: The climate fluctuates and changes naturally, and adding the common problems of land transformation and deforestation, its impact can be very harsh on the natural environment, and cause a decline in the biodiversity of plants and animals. Aloe dichotoma, common name Quiver tree, is an important part of the arid regions, such as Namaqualand and Bushmanland in South Africa, and in arid parts of southern Namibia. This succulent tree species occurs in rocky areas, and it can grow quite rapidly under the right conditions. Succulents are able to survive long periods of drought conditions, due to the fact succulent plants has special water-storing tissue which makes part of the plant fleshy, and the Quiver tree has succulent leaf and stem (Van Wyk and Smith, 1996). The Quiver tree has a 200 year life span, and can grow up to 9 meters tall, and it occurs in summer and winter rainfall regions, and can live under a variety of climatic conditions (Fig. 1). The Quiver tree is important to the ecosystem due to the fact that it is as a source of moisture for a wide variety of mammals, birds, and insects. Foden’s detailed study of the demographic data of the Quiver trees show that negligible recruitment has occurred in certain populations for 50 years, and the effects of non-climatic variables, such as herbivory, competition, seed availability, fungal pathogens, plant collection... are very small (Foden, 2002). Today, the Quiver trees are threatened by agricultural expansion, overgrazing, and mining, as well as droughts and other climate changes (Foden, 2002). Climate changes is one of the major factors affecting the existence of Quiver trees, while the Quiver tree will unlikely to be affected by small climatic fluctuations, but will be affected larger or long term climatic changes. The Quiver tree can potentially provide a good indication of long term climate changes in the arid regions (Foden, 2002). Previous onsite observations show that Quiver trees are very sensitive to temperature changes, and does not do well under extreme hot and dry conditions. Observations has also shown that the Quiver trees might be responding to higher temperatures by shifting its distribution range towards higher and higher altitudes, showing a preference for slightly cooler regions (Midgley et al., 2009).

The ongoing quest for universal patterns of plant function.

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