scispace - formally typeset
Search or ask a question

Showing papers in "Trends in Ecology and Evolution in 2011"


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Six general mechanisms by which trait variation changes the outcome of ecological interactions are identified and synthesize recent theory and identify several direct effects of trait variation per se and indirect effects arising from the role of genetic variation in trait evolution.
Abstract: Natural populations consist of phenotypically diverse individuals that exhibit variation in their demographic parameters and intra- and inter-specific interactions. Recent experimental work indicates that such variation can have significant ecological effects. However, ecological models typically disregard this variation and focus instead on trait means and total population density. Under what situations is this simplification appropriate? Why might intraspecific variation alter ecological dynamics? In this review we synthesize recent theory and identify six general mechanisms by which trait variation changes the outcome of ecological interactions. These mechanisms include several direct effects of trait variation per se and indirect effects arising from the role of genetic variation in trait evolution.

1,835 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A unified framework for biological invasions is proposed that reconciles and integrates the key features of the most commonly used invasion frameworks into a single conceptual model that can be applied to all human-mediated invasions.
Abstract: There has been a dramatic growth in research on biological invasions over the past 20 years, but a mature understanding of the field has been hampered because invasion biologists concerned with different taxa and different environments have largely adopted different model frameworks for the invasion process, resulting in a confusing range of concepts, terms and definitions. In this review, we propose a unified framework for biological invasions that reconciles and integrates the key features of the most commonly used invasion frameworks into a single conceptual model that can be applied to all human-mediated invasions. The unified framework combines previous stage-based and barrier models, and provides a terminology and categorisation for populations at different points in the invasion process.

1,795 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: By integrating new evidence from a wide range of fields, it is concluded that hydraulic function and carbohydrate and defense metabolism have numerous potential failure points, and that these processes are strongly interdependent, both with each other and with destructive pathogen and insect populations.
Abstract: Climate-driven vegetation mortality is occurring globally and is predicted to increase in the near future. The expected climate feedbacks of regional-scale mortality events have intensified the need to improve the simple mortality algorithms used for future predictions, but uncertainty regarding mortality processes precludes mechanistic modeling. By integrating new evidence from a wide range of fields, we conclude that hydraulic function and carbohydrate and defense metabolism have numerous potential failure points, and that these processes are strongly interdependent, both with each other and with destructive pathogen and insect populations. Crucially, most of these mechanisms and their interdependencies are likely to become amplified under a warmer, drier climate. Here, we outline the observations and experiments needed to test this interdependence and to improve simulations of this emergent global phenomenon.

889 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A review of recent studies shows heterogeneity in the magnitude and direction of size responses, exposing a need for large-scale phylogenetically controlled comparative analyses of temporal size change as mentioned in this paper, which will increase both understanding of the underlying mechanisms and physiological consequences of size shifts and therefore, the ability to predict the sensitivities of species to climate change.
Abstract: A recently documented correlate of anthropogenic climate change involves reductions in body size, the nature and scale of the pattern leading to suggestions of a third universal response to climate warming. Because body size affects thermoregulation and energetics, changing body size has implications for resilience in the face of climate change. A review of recent studies shows heterogeneity in the magnitude and direction of size responses, exposing a need for large-scale phylogenetically controlled comparative analyses of temporal size change. Integrative analyses of museum data combined with new theoretical models of size-dependent thermoregulatory and metabolic responses will increase both understanding of the underlying mechanisms and physiological consequences of size shifts and, therefore, the ability to predict the sensitivities of species to climate change.

830 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is shown that restoration projects can be effective in enhancing both biodiversity and multiple services, but that conflicts can arise, especially if single services are targeted in isolation.
Abstract: Ecological restoration is becoming regarded as a major strategy for increasing the provision of ecosystem services as well as reversing biodiversity losses. Here, we show that restoration projects can be effective in enhancing both, but that conflicts can arise, especially if single services are targeted in isolation. Furthermore, recovery of biodiversity and services can be slow and incomplete. Despite this uncertainty, new methods of ecosystem service valuation are suggesting that the economic benefits of restoration can outweigh costs. Payment for Ecosystem Service schemes could therefore provide incentives for restoration, but require development to ensure biodiversity and multiple services are enhanced and the needs of different stakeholders are met. Such approaches must be implemented widely if new global restoration targets are to be achieved.

789 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is shown that the species-sorting and mass-effects paradigms are the most commonly tested and supported paradigsms, and major avenues of improvement are suggested for empirical metacommunity approaches, including the integration across theoretical approaches and the incorporation of evolutionary and meta-ecosystem dynamics.
Abstract: Metacommunity theory has advanced understanding of how spatial dynamics and local interactions shape community structure and biodiversity. Here, we review empirical approaches to metacommunities, both observational and experimental, pertaining to how well they relate to and test theoretical metacommunity paradigms and how well they capture the realities of natural ecosystems. First, we show that the species-sorting and mass-effects paradigms are the most commonly tested and supported paradigms. Second, the dynamics observed can often be ascribed to two or more of the four non-exclusive paradigms. Third, empirical approaches relate only weakly to the concise assumptions and predictions made by the paradigms. Consequently, we suggest major avenues of improvement for empirical metacommunity approaches, including the integration across theoretical approaches and the incorporation of evolutionary and meta-ecosystem dynamics. We hope for metacommunity ecology to thereby bridge existing gaps between empirical and theoretical work, thus becoming a more powerful framework to understand dynamics across ecosystems.

593 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is unknown how the extensive European agri-environmental budget for conservation on farmland contributes to the policy objectives to halt biodiversity decline, and new research directions are identified addressing this important knowledge gap.
Abstract: Biodiversity continues to decline, despite the implementation of international conservation conventions and measures. To counteract biodiversity loss, it is pivotal to know how conservation actions affect biodiversity trends. Focussing on European farmland species, we review what is known about the impact of conservation initiatives on biodiversity. We argue that the effects of conservation are a function of conservation-induced ecological contrast, agricultural land-use intensity and landscape context. We find that, to date, only a few studies have linked local conservation effects to national biodiversity trends. It is therefore unknown how the extensive European agri-environmental budget for conservation on farmland contributes to the policy objectives to halt biodiversity decline. Based on this review, we identify new research directions addressing this important knowledge gap.

578 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The future of neutral theory is promising, but its concepts must be applied more broadly beyond the current focus on species-abundance distributions.
Abstract: A decade has now passed since Hubbell published The Unified Neutral Theory of Biodiversity and Biogeography. Neutral theory highlights the importance of dispersal limitation, speciation and ecological drift in the natural world and provides quantitative null models for assessing the role of adaptation and natural selection. Significant advances have been made in providing methods for understanding neutral predictions and comparing them with empirical data. In this review, we describe the current state-of-the-art techniques and ideas in neutral theory and how these are of relevance to ecology. The future of neutral theory is promising, but its concepts must be applied more broadly beyond the current focus on species-abundance distributions.

563 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is illustrated that magic traits can be produced by a variety of mechanisms, including ones in which reproductive isolation arises as an automatic by-product of adaptive divergence.
Abstract: Speciation with gene flow is greatly facilitated when traits subject to divergent selection also contribute to non-random mating. Such traits have been called ‘magic traits’, which could be interpreted to imply that they are rare, special, or unrealistic. Here, we question this assumption by illustrating that magic traits can be produced by a variety of mechanisms, including ones in which reproductive isolation arises as an automatic by-product of adaptive divergence. We also draw upon the theoretical literature to explore whether magic traits have a unique role in speciation or can be mimicked in their effects by physically linked trait-complexes. We conclude that magic traits are more frequent than previously perceived, but further work is needed to clarify their importance.

536 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This paper argues that decision theory, thresholds, scenarios and resilience thinking can expand awareness of the potential states and outcomes, as well as of the probabilities and consequences of outcomes under alternative decisions, for global change issues.
Abstract: Global change issues are complex and the consequences of decisions are often highly uncertain. The large spatial and temporal scales and stakes involved make it important to take account of present and potential consequences in decision-making. Standard approaches to decision-making under uncertainty require information about the likelihood of alternative states, how states and actions combine to form outcomes and the net benefits of different outcomes. For global change issues, however, the set of potential states is often unknown, much less the probabilities, effect of actions or their net benefits. Decision theory, thresholds, scenarios and resilience thinking can expand awareness of the potential states and outcomes, as well as of the probabilities and consequences of outcomes under alternative decisions.

487 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is concluded that mate choice by males is potentially widespread and has a distinct role in how mating systems evolve.
Abstract: The distinct reproductive roles of males and females, which for many years were characterised in terms of competitive males and choosy females, have remained a central focus of sexual selection since Darwin's time. Increasing evidence now shows that males can be choosy too, even in apparently unexpected situations, such as under polygyny or in the absence of male parental care. Here, we provide a synthesis of the theory on male mate choice and examine the factors that promote or constrain its evolution. We also discuss the evolutionary significance of male mate choice and the contrasts in male versus female mate choice. We conclude that mate choice by males is potentially widespread and has a distinct role in how mating systems evolve.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is argued that scavenging is underestimated by 16-fold in food-web research, producing inflated predation rates and underestimated indirect effects, and future food- web research should consider scavenging, especially in light of how major global changes can affect scavengers.
Abstract: Recent advances in the ecology of food webs underscore the importance of detritus and indirect predator–prey effects. However, most research considers detritus as an invariable pool and predation as the only interaction between carnivores and prey. Carrion consumption, scavenging, is a type of detrital feeding that should have widespread consequences for the structure and stability of food webs. Providing access to high-quality resources, facultative scavenging is a ubiquitous and phylogenetically widespread strategy. In this review, we argue that scavenging is underestimated by 16-fold in food-web research, producing inflated predation rates and underestimated indirect effects. Furthermore, more energy is generally transferred per link via scavenging than predation. Thus, future food-web research should consider scavenging, especially in light of how major global changes can affect scavengers.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This review shows that the advent of next-generation sequencing technologies and the growing use of genomic approaches make it increasingly feasible to answer fundamental questions of parallel phenotypic diversification in closely related species using ecological and evolutionary 'non-model' populations of vertebrates in nature.
Abstract: Parallel phenotypic diversification in closely related species is a rigorous framework for testing the role of natural selection in evolution. Do parallel phenotypes always diversify by parallel genetic bases or does selection pave many alternative genomic routes to the same phenotypic ends? In this review, we show that the advent of next-generation sequencing technologies and the growing use of genomic approaches make it increasingly feasible to answer these fundamental questions using ecological and evolutionary ‘non-model’ populations of vertebrates in nature. While it is generally expected, and often observed, that closely related populations or species have parallel genetic bases to parallel phenotypes, exceptions are not rare and show that alternative genetic routes can result in similar phenotypes. Ultimately, this framework may illuminate the ecological conditions, evolutionary histories and genetic architectures that result in recurrent phenotypes and rapid adaptation.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A practical guide to the use of null models based on randomisation to control for structure and non-independence in the data is provided.
Abstract: Behavioural ecologists are increasingly using social network analysis to describe the social organisation of animal populations and to test hypotheses. However, the statistical analysis of network data presents a number of challenges. In particular the non-independent nature of the data violates the assumptions of many common statistical approaches. In our opinion there is currently confusion and uncertainty amongst behavioural ecologists concerning the potential pitfalls when hypotheses testing using social network data. Here we review what we consider to be key considerations associated with the analysis of animal social networks and provide a practical guide to the use of null models based on randomisation to control for structure and non-independence in the data.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: How common recovery is, its magnitude, timescale and major drivers are revealed; major drivers include the reduction of human impacts, especially exploitation, habitat loss and pollution, combined with favorable life-history and environmental conditions.
Abstract: Many marine populations and ecosystems have experienced strong historical depletions, yet reports of recoveries are increasing. Here, we review the growing research on marine recoveries to reveal how common recovery is, its magnitude, timescale and major drivers. Overall, 10–50% of depleted populations and ecosystems show some recovery, but rarely to former levels of abundance. In addition, recovery can take many decades for long-lived species and complex ecosystems. Major drivers of recovery include the reduction of human impacts, especially exploitation, habitat loss and pollution, combined with favorable life-history and environmental conditions. Awareness, legal protection and enforcement of management plans are also crucial. Learning from historical recovery successes and failures is essential for implementing realistic conservation goals and promising management strategies.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A careful analysis suggests that the origin of extant neotropical biodiversity cannot be attributed to the action of one or few events during key time intervals, rather, it is the result of complex ecological and evolutionary trends initiated by Neogene tectonic events and palaeogeographical reorganisations, and maintained by theaction of Pleistocene climatic changes.
Abstract: The origin of extant neotropical biodiversity has been a controversial topic since the time of Darwin. In this review, I discuss the timing of, and potential driving factors associated with, diversification using recent evidence from molecular phylogenetics. Although these studies provide new insights into the subject, they are sensitive to dating approaches and targets, and can eventually lead to biased conclusions. A careful analysis suggests that the origin of extant neotropical biodiversity cannot be attributed to the action of one or few events during key time intervals. Rather, it is the result of complex ecological and evolutionary trends initiated by Neogene tectonic events and palaeogeographical reorganisations, and maintained by the action of Pleistocene climatic changes.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is argued that the only viable option to maintain populations of climate-endangered species in the wild is to translocate them to other locations where the climate is suitable, and risks of extinction to native species in destination areas are small.
Abstract: Many of the species at greatest risk of extinction from anthropogenic climate change are narrow endemics that face insurmountable dispersal barriers. In this review, I argue that the only viable option to maintain populations of these species in the wild is to translocate them to other locations where the climate is suitable. Risks of extinction to native species in destination areas are small, provided that translocations take place within the same broad geographic region and that the destinations lack local endemics. Biological communities in these areas are in the process of receiving many hundreds of other immigrant species as a result of climate change; ensuring that some of the ‘new’ inhabitants are climate-endangered species could reduce the net rate of extinction.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This review explores allelopathy in the context of ecosystem properties, and through its role in exotic invasions consider how evolution might affect the intensity and importance of allelopathic interactions.
Abstract: Plants can release chemicals into the environment that suppress the growth and establishment of other plants in their vicinity: a process known as 'allelopathy'. However, chemicals with allelopathic functions have other ecological roles, such as plant defense, nutrient chelation, and regulation of soil biota in ways that affect decomposition and soil fertility. These ecosystem-scale roles of allelopathic chemicals can augment, attenuate or modify their community-scale functions. In this review we explore allelopathy in the context of ecosystem properties, and through its role in exotic invasions consider how evolution might affect the intensity and importance of allelopathic interactions.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: There might be a general trend for the magnitude of the responses to decline with higher-order interactions, longer time periods and larger spatial scales, which means that on average, both positive and negative global change impacts on the biosphere might be dampened more than previously assumed.
Abstract: In recent decades, many climate manipulation experiments have investigated biosphere responses to global change. These experiments typically examined effects of elevated atmospheric CO 2 , warming or drought (driver variables) on ecosystem processes such as the carbon and water cycle (response variables). Because experiments are inevitably constrained in the number of driver variables tested simultaneously, as well as in time and space, a key question is how results are scaled up to predict net ecosystem responses. In this review, we argue that there might be a general trend for the magnitude of the responses to decline with higher-order interactions, longer time periods and larger spatial scales. This means that on average, both positive and negative global change impacts on the biosphere might be dampened more than previously assumed.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is suggested that forecasts of climate-change impacts on disease can be improved by more interdisciplinary collaborations, better linking of data and models, addressing confounding variables and context dependencies, and applying metabolic theory to host–parasite systems with consideration of community-level interactions and functional traits.
Abstract: The notion that climate change will generally increase human and wildlife diseases has garnered considerable public attention, but remains controversial and seems inconsistent with the expectation that climate change will also cause parasite extinctions. In this review, we highlight the frontiers in climate change–infectious disease research by reviewing knowledge gaps that make this controversy difficult to resolve. We suggest that forecasts of climate-change impacts on disease can be improved by more interdisciplinary collaborations, better linking of data and models, addressing confounding variables and context dependencies, and applying metabolic theory to host–parasite systems with consideration of community-level interactions and functional traits. Finally, although we emphasize host–parasite interactions, we also highlight the applicability of these points to climate-change effects on species interactions in general.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is proposed that 'speciation gene' be defined as any gene contributing to the evolution of reproductive isolation, which will clarify how numerous they are, their properties and how they affect genome-wide patterns of divergence.
Abstract: The long-standing goal of finding genes causing reproductive isolation is being achieved. To better link the genetics with the process of speciation, we propose that 'speciation gene' be defined as any gene contributing to the evolution of reproductive isolation. Characterizing a speciation gene involves establishing that the gene affects a component of reproductive isolation; demonstrating that divergence at the locus occurred before completion of speciation; and quantifying the effect size of the gene (i.e. the increase in total reproductive isolation caused by its divergence). Review of a sample of candidate speciation genes found that few meet these criteria. Improved characterization of speciation genes will clarify how numerous they are, their properties and how they affect genome-wide patterns of divergence.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Five ways in which substantial advances could be made in the next few years are identified: improving the accessibility and efficiency of biodiversity monitoring data, quantifying the main determinants of the sensitivity of species to climate change, incorporating community dynamics into projections of biodiversity responses, and improving the biophysical rule sets that define functional groupings of species in global models.
Abstract: Understanding how species and ecosystems respond to climate change has become a major focus of ecology and conservation biology. Modelling approaches provide important tools for making future projections, but current models of the climate-biosphere interface remain overly simplistic, undermining the credibility of projections. We identify five ways in which substantial advances could be made in the next few years: (i) improving the accessibility and efficiency of biodiversity monitoring data, (ii) quantifying the main determinants of the sensitivity of species to climate change, (iii) incorporating community dynamics into projections of biodiversity responses, (iv) accounting for the influence of evolutionary processes on the response of species to climate change, and (v) improving the biophysical rule sets that define functional groupings of species in global models.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Some problems with narrative biogeography are explained, how the use of explicit hypotheses is changing understanding of how organisms came to be distributed as they are is shown and developing synergies betweenBiogeography, ecology, molecular dating and palaeontology are providing novel data and hypothesis-testing opportunities.
Abstract: Often, biogeography is applied only as a narrative addition to phylogenetic studies and lacks scientific rigour. However, if research questions are framed as hypotheses, biogeographical scenarios become testable. In this review, we explain some problems with narrative biogeography and show how the use of explicit hypotheses is changing understanding of how organisms came to be distributed as they are. Developing synergies between biogeography, ecology, molecular dating and palaeontology are providing novel data and hypothesis-testing opportunities. New approaches are challenging the classic ‘Gondwana’ paradigm and a more complicated history of the Southern Hemisphere is emerging, involving not only general drivers such as continental drift and niche conservatism, but also drowning and re-emergence of landmasses, biotic turnover and long-distance colonization.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is suggested that succession is particularly suitable to address concerns about biodiversity loss, climate change, invasive species, and ecological restoration, and studies of succession can substantially improve the authors' understanding of other ecological phenomena.
Abstract: Lessons learned from the study of ecological succession have much to offer contemporary environmental problem solving but these lessons are being underutilized. As anthropogenic disturbances increase, succession is more relevant than ever. In this review, we suggest that succession is particularly suitable to address concerns about biodiversity loss, climate change, invasive species, and ecological restoration. By incorporating modern experimental techniques and linking results across environmental gradients with meta-analyses, studies of succession can substantially improve our understanding of other ecological phenomena. Succession can help predict changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services impacted by invasive species and climate change and guide manipulative responses to these disruptions by informing restoration efforts. Succession is still a critical, integrative concept that is central to ecology.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this review, similar to pharmaceutical companies mining natural products, it is sought to understand how evolution has suppressed cancer to develop ultimately improved cancer prevention in humans.
Abstract: The evolution of multicellularity required the suppression of cancer. If every cell has some chance of becoming cancerous, large, long-lived organisms should have an increased risk of developing cancer compared with small, short-lived organisms. The lack of correlation between body size and cancer risk is known as Peto's paradox. Animals with 1000 times more cells than humans do not exhibit an increased cancer risk, suggesting that natural mechanisms can suppress cancer 1000 times more effectively than is done in human cells. Because cancer has proven difficult to cure, attention has turned to cancer prevention. In this review, similar to pharmaceutical companies mining natural products, we seek to understand how evolution has suppressed cancer to develop ultimately improved cancer prevention in humans.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is hypothesised that aquatic systems have an important ecological and evolutionary role in driving the persistence, emergence and spread of AMR, which could have consequences when attempting to reduce its occurrence in clinical settings.
Abstract: Bacteria showing antimicrobial resistance (AMR) pose a significant global healthcare problem. Although many mechanisms conferring AMR are understood, the ecological processes facilitating its persistence and spread are less well characterised. Aquatic systems represent an important milieu for the environmental release, mixing, persistence and spread of AMR bacteria and resistance genes associated with horizontally transferable genetic elements. Additionally, owing to the use and discharge of antimicrobials and biocides, and the accumulation and abundance of other pollutants, mechanisms that confer AMR might evolve in aquatic systems. In this review, we hypothesise that aquatic systems have an important ecological and evolutionary role in driving the persistence, emergence and spread of AMR, which could have consequences when attempting to reduce its occurrence in clinical settings.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This review recommends including those species that are absent from an ecosystem but which belong to its species pool; that is, all species in the region that can potentially inhabit those particular ecological conditions and calling the set of absent species 'dark diversity'.
Abstract: Ecological theory and nature conservation have traditionally relied solely on observed local diversity. In this review, we recommend including those species that are absent from an ecosystem but which belong to its species pool; that is, all species in the region that can potentially inhabit those particular ecological conditions. We call the set of absent species 'dark diversity'. Relating local and dark diversities enables biodiversity comparisons between regions, ecosystems and taxonomic groups, and the evaluation of the roles of local and regional processes in ecological communities. Dark diversity can also be used to counteract biodiversity loss and to estimate the restoration potential of ecosystems. We illustrate the dark diversity concept by globally mapping plant dark diversity and the local:dark diversity ratio.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Examples of how the near-time and deep-time fossil record can be used to understand the ecological and evolutionary responses of species to changes in their environment are discussed.
Abstract: Geohistorical data and analyses are playing an increasingly important role in conservation biology practice and policy. In this review, we discuss examples of how the near-time and deep-time fossil record can be used to understand the ecological and evolutionary responses of species to changes in their environment. We show that beyond providing crucial baseline data, the conservation paleobiology perspective helps us to identify which species will be most vulnerable and what kinds of responses will be most common. We stress that inclusion of geohistorical data in our decision-making process provides a more scientifically robust basis for conservation policies than those dependent on short-term observations alone.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Estimates of natural selection and genetic variation for leaf traits to test whether the evolution of the worldwide leaf economic spectrum was limited by selection against unfit trait combinations or by genetic constraints suggest that genetic constraints have had a smaller role than selection in the Evolution of the WLES.
Abstract: The worldwide leaf economic spectrum (WLES) is a strikingly consistent pattern of correlations among leaf traits Although the WLES effectively summarizes variation in plant ecological strategies, little is known about its evolution We reviewed estimates of natural selection and genetic variation for leaf traits to test whether the evolution of the WLES was limited by selection against unfit trait combinations or by genetic constraints There was significant selection for leaf traits on both ends of the WLES spectrum, as well as significant genetic variation for these traits In addition, genetic correlations between WLES traits were variable in strength and direction These data suggest that genetic constraints have had a smaller role than selection in the evolution of the WLES

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The evidence for and against high vulnerability is examined, key research needs for resolving current differences are identified, and ways of mitigating or adapting to potential impacts are suggested.
Abstract: Before the end of this century, tropical rainforests will be subject to climatic conditions that have not existed anywhere on Earth for millions of years. These forests are the most species-rich ecosystems in the world and play a crucial role in regulating carbon and water feedbacks in the global climate system; therefore, it is important that the probable impacts of anthropogenic climate change are understood. However, the recent literature shows a striking range of views on the vulnerability of tropical rainforests, from least to most concern among major ecosystems. This review, which focuses on the impact of rising temperatures, examines the evidence for and against high vulnerability, identifies key research needs for resolving current differences and suggests ways of mitigating or adapting to potential impacts.