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Paul J Birrell

Researcher at Public Health England

Publications -  51
Citations -  1352

Paul J Birrell is an academic researcher from Public Health England. The author has contributed to research in topics: Population & Medicine. The author has an hindex of 14, co-authored 35 publications receiving 840 citations. Previous affiliations of Paul J Birrell include Medical Research Council & University of Cambridge.

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Bayesian modeling to unmask and predict influenza A/H1N1pdm dynamics in London

TL;DR: This work embeds an age-structured model into a Bayesian synthesis of multiple evidence sources to reveal substantial changes in contact patterns and health-seeking behavior throughout the 2009 influenza A/H1N1pdm pandemic, uncovering two similar infection waves, despite large differences in the reported levels of disease.
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Community prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in England from April to November, 2020: results from the ONS Coronavirus Infection Survey.

TL;DR: Age (young adults, particularly those aged 17–24 years) was an important initial driver of increased positivity rates in the second wave, and a substantial proportion of infections were in individuals not reporting symptoms around their positive test, indicating that continued monitoring for SARS-CoV-2 in the community will be important for managing the COVID-19 pandemic moving forwards.
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HIV incidence in men who have sex with men in England and Wales 2001–10: a nationwide population study

TL;DR: Improved frequency and targeting of HIV testing, as well as the introduction of ART at higher CD4 counts than is currently recommended, could begin a decline in HIV transmission among MSM in England and Wales.
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Antibody responses and correlates of protection in the general population after two doses of the ChAdOx1 or BNT162b2 vaccines

TL;DR: In this article , the authors investigated anti-spike IgG antibody responses and correlates of protection after second doses of ChAdOx1 or BNT162b2 vaccines for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).
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Changes in severity of 2009 pandemic A/H1N1 influenza in England: a Bayesian evidence synthesis

TL;DR: The impact of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in England during the two waves of activity up to end of February 2010 is assessed by estimating the probabilities of cases leading to severe events and the proportion of the population infected.