There is, I think, something ethereal about i —the square root of minus one. I remember first hearing about it at school. It seemed an odd beast at that time—an intruder hovering on the edge of reality.

Usually familiarity dulls this sense of the bizarre, but in the case of i it was the reverse: over the years the sense of its surreal nature intensified. It seemed that it was impossible to write mathematics that described the real world in …

I and i

[신간의 별자리x] 우리/미술, 그리고 ‘슬픔의 박물관’

世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

2 1 The innovative transport systems and the CityMobil project 10 1.1 The research questions 10 2 The state of art in the field of automatic transport systems 12 2.1 Case studies and demand studies for innovative transport systems 12 3 The design and implementation of surveys 14 3.1 Definition of experimental design 14 3.2 Questionnaire design and delivery 16 3.3 First analyses on the collected sample 18 4 Calibration of Logit Multionomial demand models 21 4.1 Methodology 21 4.2 Calibration of the “full” model. 22 4.3 Calibration of the “final” model 24 4.4 The demand analysis through the final Multinomial Logit model 25 5 The analysis of interaction between the demand and socioeconomic attributes 31 5.1 Methodology 31 5.2 Application of Mixed Logit models to the demand 31 5.3 Analysis of the interactions between demand and socioeconomic attributes through Mixed Logit models 32 5.4 Mixed Logit model and interaction between age and the demand for the CTS 38 5.5 Demand analysis with Mixed Logit model 39 6 Final analyses and conclusions 45 6.1 Comparison between the results of the analyses 45 6.2 Conclusions 48 6.3 Answers to the research questions and future developments 52

The European commission

Climate change 2014 - Synthesis Report

The increasing effects of climate change and extreme weather events on the operation of power systems highlight the need for developing effective techniques and models for evaluating the challenges that power systems may have to deal with in the future for maintaining high levels of resilience. Within this context, the aim of the `Resilient Electricity Networks for Great Britain (RESNET)' project is to develop and demonstrate a comprehensive approach to analyse the effects of climate-related changes on the resilience of the Great Britain's electricity system, and to develop tools for quantifying the value of adaptation measures that would enhance its resilience. This paper presents an overview of the key research activities and findings of RESNET project, specifically addressing possible climate change implications related to demand and supply scenarios, component ratings, and impact of extreme weather on system reliability. The final aim is to provide insights on various climate and weather-related challenges that the Great Britain's electricity system might face in the future.

Impact of climate change on the resilience of the UK power system

This paper presents a comprehensive metho- dology and a relevant tool specifically developed to quanti- fy the techno-economic performance of distribution infra- structure (electricity/heat networks) to supply both elec- trical and thermal loads. In particular, an electricity net- work-only approach is compared to an electricity-and- heat-network one. Rather than using specific case study networks, the methodology proposed here is to generate generic sets of electricity/heat networks by exploiting frac- tal theory, and is aimed at strategic planning of integrated energy systems. In particular, by having the possibility of creating, sizing, and simulating a wide range of realistic networks with different layouts and alternative design strategies, meaningful conclusions can be drawn on techno- economic drivers of electro-thermal systems. Numerical applications exemplify the methodology developed.

Fractal models for electro-thermal network studies

This paper presents a general approach to cogeneration planning in a multi-year time interval of analysis, taking into account various types of uncertainties. The approach is structured according to different time frames. Starting from the electrical and thermal load patterns for a reference period, consistent groups of hours are created in the short-term time frame. The relevant energy and electricity price random variables (RVs) are represented through average values and covariance matrices in order to account for their possible correlations. Thus, the RVs are extracted from multivariate Normal probability distributions, which allows for Monte Carlo simulations of the cogeneration plant operation within each group of hours. The evolution of fuel prices and financial parameters is set in the medium-term time frame. To account for the presence of uncertainties, decision theory-based criteria are then applied in the long-term time frame to select the alternative that presents the best performance over a set of scenarios. A case study application, based on the data referred to a hospital site, shows the viability of the proposed approach. The planning alternatives include technologies such as microturbines and internal combustion engines of different sizes. The scenarios are characterized by specific evolution of the electrical and thermal loads and of the electricity and gas prices. The mean value and the 5% non-exceeding probability of the net present costs are used as decision variables.

A Decision Theory Approach to Cogeneration Planning in the Presence of Uncertainties

This paper aims to present a probabilistic assessment, via a two-stage stochastic optimization, of the potential benefits from cost optimizing the interaction of thermal and electrical systems of an aggregation of buildings, through the use of domestic electric heat pumps. As more and more intermittent generation is integrated into the grid, while capacity margins are shrinking, not only might prices drop on average but they could also become much more volatile than at present. Potential future day-ahead price scenarios are therefore analyzed in this paper, by using specific price evolution stochastic models developed to take into account different levels of average prices and volatility. Results suggest that lower average values of day-ahead prices combined with very high volatility can lead to noticeable economic benefits from managing EHP aggregation to exploit potential arbitrage opportunities.

/pdf/business-cases-for-electric-heat-pumps-under-different-day-45x8niovgy.pdf

Pierluigi Mancarella

Papers

Impact of climate change on the resilience of the UK power system

Fractal models for electro-thermal network studies

A Decision Theory Approach to Cogeneration Planning in the Presence of Uncertainties

Business cases for electric heat pumps under different day-ahead price scenarios

Regulatory and other Barriers in the implementation of Response Options to reduce impacts from variable RES sources