Showing papers by "Prasad S. Kasibhatla published in 2017"

Global fire emissions estimates during 1997–2016

Abstract: . Climate, land use, and other anthropogenic and natural drivers have the potential to influence fire dynamics in many regions. To develop a mechanistic understanding of the changing role of these drivers and their impact on atmospheric composition, long-term fire records are needed that fuse information from different satellite and in situ data streams. Here we describe the fourth version of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) and quantify global fire emissions patterns during 1997–2016. The modeling system, based on the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach (CASA) biogeochemical model, has several modifications from the previous version and uses higher quality input datasets. Significant upgrades include (1) new burned area estimates with contributions from small fires, (2) a revised fuel consumption parameterization optimized using field observations, (3) modifications that improve the representation of fuel consumption in frequently burning landscapes, and (4) fire severity estimates that better represent continental differences in burning processes across boreal regions of North America and Eurasia. The new version has a higher spatial resolution (0.25°) and uses a different set of emission factors that separately resolves trace gas and aerosol emissions from temperate and boreal forest ecosystems. Global mean carbon emissions using the burned area dataset with small fires (GFED4s) were 2.2 × 1015 grams of carbon per year (Pg C yr−1) during 1997–2016, with a maximum in 1997 (3.0 Pg C yr−1) and minimum in 2013 (1.8 Pg C yr−1). These estimates were 11 % higher than our previous estimates (GFED3) during 1997–2011, when the two datasets overlapped. This net increase was the result of a substantial increase in burned area (37 %), mostly due to the inclusion of small fires, and a modest decrease in mean fuel consumption (−19 %) to better match estimates from field studies, primarily in savannas and grasslands. For trace gas and aerosol emissions, differences between GFED4s and GFED3 were often larger due to the use of revised emission factors. If small fire burned area was excluded (GFED4 without the s for small fires), average emissions were 1.5 Pg C yr−1. The addition of small fires had the largest impact on emissions in temperate North America, Central America, Europe, and temperate Asia. This small fire layer carries substantial uncertainties; improving these estimates will require use of new burned area products derived from high-resolution satellite imagery. Our revised dataset provides an internally consistent set of burned area and emissions that may contribute to a better understanding of multi-decadal changes in fire dynamics and their impact on the Earth system. GFED data are available from http://www.globalfiredata.org .

A human-driven decline in global burned area

Abstract: Fire is an essential Earth system process that alters ecosystem and atmospheric composition. Here we assessed long-term fire trends using multiple satellite data sets. We found that global burned area declined by 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area remained robust after adjusting for precipitation variability and was largest in savannas. Agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. Fire models were unable to reproduce the pattern and magnitude of observed declines, suggesting that they may overestimate fire emissions in future projections. Using economic and demographic variables, we developed a conceptual model for predicting fire in human-dominated landscapes.

An assessment of high carbon stock and high conservation value approaches to sustainable oil palm cultivation in Gabon

Abstract: Industrial-scale oil palm cultivation is rapidly expanding in Gabon, where it has the potential to drive economic growth, but also threatens forest, biodiversity and carbon resources. The Gabonese government is promoting an ambitious agricultural expansion strategy, while simultaneously committing to minimize negative environmental impacts of oil palm agriculture. This study estimates the extent and location of suitable land for oil palm cultivation in Gabon, based on an analysis of recent trends in plantation permitting. We use the resulting suitability map to evaluate two proposed approaches to minimizing negative environmental impacts: a High Carbon Stock (HCS) approach, which emphasizes forest protection and climate change mitigation, and a High Conservation Value (HCV) approach, which focuses on safeguarding biodiversity and ecosystems. We quantify the forest area, carbon stock, and biodiversity resources protected under each approach, using newly developed maps of priority species distributions and forest biomass for Gabon. We find 2.7–3.9 Mha of suitable or moderately suitable land that avoid HCS areas, 4.4 million hectares (Mha) that avoid HCV areas, and 1.2–1.7 Mha that avoid both. This suggests that Gabon's oil palm production target could likely be met without compromising important ecosystem services, if appropriate safeguards are put in place. Our analysis improves understanding of suitability for oil palm in Gabon, determines how conservation strategies align with national targets for oil palm production, and informs national land use planning.

Lightning and Atmospheric Chemistry: The Rate of Atmospheric NO Production

Abstract: Nitrogen fixation by natural abiogenic processes is dominated by the conversion of molecular nitrogen to nitric oxide (NO) by lightning. Because of the possibility that lightning might be an important source of atmospheric NO, the magnitude of the lightning fixation rate became a critical issue in atmospheric chemistry. Implicit in the flash-extrapolation approach is the assumption that the global rate of NO production by all lightning flashes can be characterized by the production of NO from a so-called average or representative flash multiplied by the number of flashes occurring globally. Because the natural abundance of fixed nitrogen — many orders of magnitude less than molecular nitrogen — is often at a level sufficientiy low to be the limiting factor in plant growth, its rate of production often plays a key role in controlling the rate of growth of ecological systems.