Showing papers by "Richard S. Judson published in 2019"

Challenges in IBD Research: Environmental Triggers.

Abstract: Environmental triggers is part of five focus areas of the Challenges in IBD research document, which also includes preclinical human IBD mechanisms, novel technologies, precision medicine and pragmatic clinical research. The Challenges in IBD research document provides a comprehensive overview of current gaps in inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) research and delivers actionable approaches to address them. It is the result of a multidisciplinary input from scientists, clinicians, patients, and funders, and represents a valuable resource for patient centric research prioritization. In particular, the environmental triggers section is focused on the main research gaps in elucidating causality of environmental factors in IBD. Research gaps were identified in: 1) epidemiology of exposures; 2) identification of signatures of biological response to exposures; and 3) mechanisms of how environmental exposures drive IBD. To address these gaps, the implementation of longitudinal prospective studies to determine disease evolution and identify sub-clinical changes in response to exposures is proposed. This can help define critical windows of vulnerability and risk prediction. In addition, systems biology analysis and in silico modeling were proposed as approaches to integrate the IBD exposome for the identification of biological signatures of response to exposures, and to develop prediction models of the effects of environmental factors in driving disease activity and response to therapy. This research could lead to identification of biomarkers of exposures and new modalities for therapeutic intervention. Finally, hypothesis-driven mechanistic studies to understand gene-environment interactions and to validate causality of priority factors should be performed to determine how environment influences clinical outcomes.

Empirical models for anatomical and physiological changes in a human mother and fetus during pregnancy and gestation.

Abstract: Many parameters treated as constants in traditional physiologically based pharmacokinetic models must be formulated as time-varying quantities when modeling pregnancy and gestation due to the dramatic physiological and anatomical changes that occur during this period. While several collections of empirical models for such parameters have been published, each has shortcomings. We sought to create a repository of empirical models for tissue volumes, blood flow rates, and other quantities that undergo substantial changes in a human mother and her fetus during the time between conception and birth, and to address deficiencies with similar, previously published repositories. We used maximum likelihood estimation to calibrate various models for the time-varying quantities of interest, and then used the Akaike information criterion to select an optimal model for each quantity. For quantities of interest for which time-course data were not available, we constructed composite models using percentages and/or models describing related quantities. In this way, we developed a comprehensive collection of formulae describing parameters essential for constructing a PBPK model of a human mother and her fetus throughout the approximately 40 weeks of pregnancy and gestation. We included models describing blood flow rates through various fetal blood routes that have no counterparts in adults. Our repository of mathematical models for anatomical and physiological quantities of interest provides a basis for PBPK models of human pregnancy and gestation, and as such, it can ultimately be used to support decision-making with respect to optimal pharmacological dosing and risk assessment for pregnant women and their developing fetuses. The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views or policies of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

Ensemble QSAR Modeling to Predict Multispecies Fish Toxicity Lethal Concentrations and Points of Departure.

Abstract: QSAR modeling can be used to aid testing prioritization of the thousands of chemical substances for which no ecological toxicity data are available. We drew on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's ECOTOX database with additional data from ECHA to build a large data set containing in vivo test data on fish for thousands of chemical substances. This was used to create QSAR models to predict two types of end points: acute LC50 (median lethal concentration) and points of departure similar to the NOEC (no observed effect concentration) for any duration (named the "LC50" and "NOEC" models, respectively). These models used study covariates, such as species and exposure route, as features to facilitate the simultaneous use of varied data types. A novel method of substituting taxonomy groups for species dummy variables was introduced to maximize generalizability to different species. A stacked ensemble of three machine learning methods-random forest, gradient boosted trees, and support vector regression-was implemented to best make use of a large data set with many descriptors. The LC50 and NOEC models predicted end points within 1 order of magnitude 81% and 76% of the time, respectively, and had RMSEs of roughly 0.83 and 0.98 log10(mg/L), respectively. Benchmarks against the existing TEST and ECOSAR tools suggest improved prediction accuracy.

Variability in in vivo Toxicity Studies: Defining the upper limit of predictivity for models of systemic effect levels

Abstract: Poster presented to the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) 40th annual meeting in Nov 2019

Evaluation of the Predictive Accuracy of QSAR Models and Alerts for Genotoxicity Using a Newly Compiled Experimental Dataset

Abstract: Poster presented at the American Society for Cellular and Computational Toxicology (ASCCT) annual meeting in September 2019