Showing papers by "Rob Allan published in 2011"

The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project

Abstract: The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) project is an international effort to produce a comprehensive global atmospheric circulation dataset spanning the twentieth century, assimilating only surface pressure reports and using observed monthly sea-surface temperature and sea-ice distributions as boundary conditions. It is chiefly motivated by a need to provide an observational dataset with quantified uncertainties for validations of climate model simulations of the twentieth century on all time-scales, with emphasis on the statistics of daily weather. It uses an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method with background ‘first guess’ fields supplied by an ensemble of forecasts from a global numerical weather prediction model. This directly yields a global analysis every 6 hours as the most likely state of the atmosphere, and also an uncertainty estimate of that analysis. The 20CR dataset provides the first estimates of global tropospheric variability, and of the dataset's time-varying quality, from 1871 to the present at 6-hourly temporal and 2° spatial resolutions. Intercomparisons with independent radiosonde data indicate that the reanalyses are generally of high quality. The quality in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere throughout the century is similar to that of current three-day operational NWP forecasts. Intercomparisons over the second half-century of these surface-based reanalyses with other reanalyses that also make use of upper-air and satellite data are equally encouraging. It is anticipated that the 20CR dataset will be a valuable resource to the climate research community for both model validations and diagnostic studies. Some surprising results are already evident. For instance, the long-term trends of indices representing the North Atlantic Oscillation, the tropical Pacific Walker Circulation, and the Pacific–North American pattern are weak or non-existent over the full period of record. The long-term trends of zonally averaged precipitation minus evaporation also differ in character from those in climate model simulations of the twentieth century. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright.

The International Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth (ACRE) Initiative

Abstract: In 2006, climate applications scientists in Queensland, Australia, asked the lead author if a longer and more complete historical weather record could be created and fed directly into various crop, pasture, and production models. Existing dynamical reanalyses were steps toward such a product, but they spanned only the last six decades and had well-known shortcomings. To meet the needs of application scientists, new reanalyses would have to extend much further back in time while maintaining accuracy with limited observations. They would also need to be disseminated in a way that is easy to use directly and to downscale to small regions.

Guiding the Creation of A Comprehensive Surface Temperature Resource for Twenty-First-Century Climate Science

Abstract: Surface temperature data – observed primarily for weather-related purposes – are disparate, originating from ever evolving instrument types and observational practices. Although several global databases are in use internationally, no comprehensive global repository exists and many data are undigitized or restricted. Scientists have painstakingly obtained vast quantities of data, carefully removed random errors and accounted for systematic biases. The 21st Century demands go further - requiring highly detailed (spatially and temporally), globally complete, long-term products, with quantified uncertainties, and created from freely available, fully traceable data. Many decisions of substantial socio-economic importance rely on the accuracy of such products. An international meeting was held to plan how best to facilitate such efforts. A central repository is to be created, where data are traceable from their origins to final product. Strategies are outlined to rescue non-digitized data and move towards entirely freely available data. Creation of multiple methodologically independent products is recommended for quantifying uncertainty. Methods of benchmarking and assessing multiple products to aid inter-comparison and end-user product selection are described. Data-products would be obtained and visualized using in-house tools from the planned data-portal. Structure and governance include engagement with bodies such as WMO and, importantly, with experts other than climatologists.

Trends and low-frequency variability of storminess over western Europe, 1878–2007

Abstract: This study analyzes extremes of geostrophic wind speeds derived from sub-daily surface pressure observations at 13 sites in the European region from the Iberian peninsula to Scandinavia for the period from 1878 or later to 2007. It extends previous studies on storminess conditions in the Northeast (NE) Atlantic-European region. It also briefly discusses the relationship between storminess and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The results show that storminess conditions in the region from the Northeast Atlantic to western Europe have undergone substantial decadal or longer time scale fluctuations, with considerable seasonal and regional differences (especially between winter and summer, and between the British Isles-North Sea area and other parts of the region). In the North Sea and the Alps areas, there has been a notable increase in the occurrence frequency of strong geostrophic winds from the mid to the late twentieth century. The results also show that, in the cold season (December–March), the NAO-storminess relationship is significantly positive in the north-central part of this region, but negative in the south-southeastern part.

Review Article The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project

Abstract: Compo, G. P.; Whitaker, J. S.; Sardeshmukh, P. D.; Matsui, N.; Allan, R. J.; Yin, X.; Gleason, B. E. Jr.; Vose, R. S.; Rutledge, G.; Bessemoulin, P.; Brönnimann, S.; Brunet, M.; Crouthamel, R. I.; Grant, A. N.; Groisman, P. Y.; Jones, P. D.; Kruk, M. C.; Kruger, A. C.; Marshall, G. J.; Maugeri, M.; Mok, H. Y.; Nordli, Ø.; Ross, T. F.; Trigo, R. M.; Wang, X. L.; Woodruff, S. D.; and Worley, S. J., "Review Article The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project" (2011). Publications, Agencies and Staff of the U.S. Department of Commerce. 254. https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/usdeptcommercepub/254

Early ship-based upper-air data and comparison with the Twentieth Century

Abstract: Extension of 3-D atmospheric data products back into the past is desirable for a wide range of applications. Historical upper-air data are important in this endeavour, particularly in the maritime regions of the tropics and the southern hemisphere, where observations are extremely sparse. Here we present newly digitized and re-evaluated early ship-based upper-air data from two cruises: (1) kite and registering balloon profiles from onboard the ship SMS Planet on a cruise from Europe around South Africa and across the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific in 1906/1907, and (2) ship-based radiosonde data from onboard the MS Schwabenland on a cruise from Europe across the Atlantic to Antarctica and back in 1938/1939. We describe the data and provide estimations of the errors. We compare the data with a recent reanalysis (the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project, 20CR, Compo et al., 2011) that provides global 3-D data back to the 19th century based on an assimilation of surface pressure data only (plus monthly mean sea-surface temperatures). In cruise (1), the agreement is generally good, but large temperature differences appear during a period with a strong inversion. In cruise (2), after a subset of the data are corrected, close agreement between observations and 20CR is found for geopotential height (GPH) and temperature notwithstanding a likely cold bias of 20CR at the tropopause level. Results are considerably worse for relative humidity, which was reportedly inaccurately measured. Note that comparing 20CR, which has limited skill in the tropical regions, with measurements from ships in remote regions made under sometimes difficult conditions can be considered a worst case assessment. In view of that fact, the anomaly correlations for temperature of 0.3–0.6 in the lower troposphere in cruise (1) and of 0.5–0.7 for tropospheric temperature and GPH in cruise (2) are considered as promising results. Moreover, they are consistent with the error estimations. The results suggest room for further improvement of data products in remote regions.

Recovery of Global Surface Weather Observations for Historical Reanalyses and International Users

Abstract: [1] Third International Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions Over the Earth Initiative Workshop: Reanalysis and Applications; Baltimore, Maryland, 3–5 November 2010; The third Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth (ACRE) workshop advanced the goals of the international ACRE initiative (http://www.met-acre.org/) to undertake and facilitate the recovery of instrumental terrestrial and marine global surface weather observations underpinning global weather reconstructions and reanalyses spanning the past 200–250 years (http://reanalyses.org). The workshop improved integration of the 35–40 ACRE-linked international scientific projects, institutions, and organizations working toward these ends. The meeting highlighted the broad array and international usage of ACRE-facilitated data sets and reanalysis: the International Surface Pressure Databank (ISPD; http://dss.ucar.edu/datasets/ds132.0/), the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (http:/icoads.noaa.gov/ICOADS;), and the 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR; http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/20thC_Rean/). The need for more data recovery for all regions of the globe during the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries was emphasized. Many regional efforts for such recovery are under way. The Arctic and maritime regions were highlighted as particular areas needing attention. As a result of the meeting, connections with existing projects were made and new efforts were started to address these needs.