Showing papers by "Till Kuhlbrodt published in 2020"

Implementation of U.K. Earth system models for CMIP6

Abstract: We describe the scientific and technical implementation of two models for a core set of experiments contributing to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The models used are the physical atmosphere-land-ocean-sea ice model HadGEM3-GC3.1 and the Earth system model UKESM1 which adds a carbon-nitrogen cycle and atmospheric chemistry to HadGEM3-GC3.1. The model results are constrained by the external boundary conditions (forcing data) and initial conditions.We outline the scientific rationale and assumptions made in specifying these. Notable details of the implementation include an ozone redistribution scheme for prescribed ozone simulations (HadGEM3-GC3.1) to avoid inconsistencies with the model's thermal tropopause, and land use change in dynamic vegetation simulations (UKESM1) whose influence will be subject to potential biases in the simulation of background natural vegetation.We discuss the implications of these decisions for interpretation of the simulation results. These simulations are expensive in terms of human and CPU resources and will underpin many further experiments; we describe some of the technical steps taken to ensure their scientific robustness and reproducibility.

Historical simulations with HadGEM3-GC3.1 for CMIP6

Abstract: We describe and evaluate historical simulations which use the third Hadley Centre Global Environment Model in the Global Coupled configuration 3.1 (HadGEM3-GC3.1) model and which form part of the UK's contribution to the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP6. These simulations, run at two resolutions, respond to historically evolving forcings such as greenhouse gases, aerosols, solar irradiance, volcanic aerosols, land use, and ozone concentrations. We assess the response of the simulations to these historical forcings and compare against the observational record. This includes the evolution of global mean surface temperature, ocean heat content, sea ice extent, ice sheet mass balance, permafrost extent, snow cover, North Atlantic sea surface temperature and circulation, and decadal precipitation. We find that the simulated time evolution of global mean surface temperature broadly follows the observed record but with important quantitative differences which we find are most likely attributable to strong effective radiative forcing from anthropogenic aerosols and a weak pattern of sea surface temperature response in the low to middle latitudes to volcanic eruptions. We also find evidence that anthropogenic aerosol forcings play a role in driving the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which are key features of the North Atlantic ocean. Overall, the model historical simulations show many features in common with the observed record over the period 1850–2014 and so provide a basis for future in-depth study of recent climate change.

Resolving and parameterising the ocean mesoscale in earth system models

Abstract: Assessment of the impact of ocean resolution in Earth System models on the mean state, variability, and future projections and discussion of prospects for improved parameterisations to represent the ocean mesoscale. The majority of centres participating in CMIP6 employ ocean components with resolutions of about 1 degree in their full Earth System models (eddy-parameterising models). In contrast, there are also models submitted to CMIP6 (both DECK and HighResMIP) that employ ocean components of approximately 1/4 degree and 1/10 degree (eddy-present and eddy-rich models). Evidence to date suggests that whether the ocean mesoscale is explicitly represented or parameterised affects not only the mean state of the ocean but also the climate variability and the future climate response, particularly in terms of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the Southern Ocean. Recent developments in scale-aware parameterisations of the mesoscale are being developed and will be included in future Earth System models. Although the choice of ocean resolution in Earth System models will always be limited by computational considerations, for the foreseeable future, this choice is likely to affect projections of climate variability and change as well as other aspects of the Earth System. Future Earth System models will be able to choose increased ocean resolution and/or improved parameterisation of processes to capture physical processes with greater fidelity.

Spin-up of UK Earth System Model 1 (UKESM1) for CMIP6

Abstract: For simulations intended to study the influence of anthropogenic forcing on climate, temporal stability of the Earth's natural heat, freshwater and biogeochemical budgets is critical. Achieving such coupled model equilibration is scientifically and computationally challenging. We describe the protocol used to spin‐up the UK Earth system model (UKESM1) with respect to pre‐industrial forcing for use in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Due to the high computational cost of UKESM1's atmospheric model, especially when running with interactive full chemistry and aerosols, spin‐up primarily used parallel configurations using only ocean/land components. For the ocean, the resulting spin‐up permitted the carbon and heat contents of the ocean's full volume to approach equilibrium over ~5000 years. On land, a spin‐up of ~1000 years brought UKESM1's dynamic vegetation and soil carbon reservoirs towards near‐equilibrium. The end‐states of these parallel ocean‐ and land‐only phases then initialised a multi‐centennial period of spin‐up with the full Earth system model, prior to this simulation continuing as the UKESM1 CMIP6 pre‐industrial control (piControl). The realism of the fully‐coupled spin‐up was assessed for a range of ocean and land properties, as was the degree of equilibration for key variables. Lessons drawn include the importance of consistent interface physics across ocean‐ and land‐only models and the coupled (parent) model, the extreme simulation duration required to approach equilibration targets, and the occurrence of significant regional land carbon drifts despite global‐scale equilibration. Overall, the UKESM1 spin‐up underscores the expense involved and argues in favour of future development of more efficient spin‐up techniques.

The Evaluation of the North Atlantic Climate System in UKESM1 Historical Simulations for CMIP6

Abstract: Earth System models enable a broad range of climate interactions that physical climate models are unable to simulate. However, the extent to which adding Earth System components changes or improves the simulation of the physical climate is not well understood. Here we present a broad multi-variate evaluation of the North Atlantic climate system in historical simulations of the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1) performed for CMIP6. In particular, we focus on the mean state and the decadal timescale evolution of important variables that span the North Atlantic Climate system. In general, UKESM1 performs well and realistically simulates many aspects of the North Atlantic climate system. Like the physical version of the model, we find that changes in external forcing, and particularly aerosol forcing, are an important driver of multi-decadal change in UKESM1, especially for Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. However, many of the shortcomings identified are similar to common biases found in physical climate models, including the physical climate model that underpins UKESM1. For example, the summer jet is too weak and too far poleward; decadal variability in the winter jet is underestimated; intra-seasonal stratospheric polar vortex variability is poorly represented; and Arctic sea ice is too thick. Forced shortwave changes may be also too strong in UKESM1, which, given the important role of historical aerosol forcing in shaping the evolution of the North Atlantic in UKESM1, motivates further investigation. Therefore, physical model development, alongside Earth System development, remains crucial in order to improve climate simulations.

Earth system music: music generated from the United Kingdom Earth System Model (UKESM1)

Abstract: . Scientific data are almost always represented graphically in figures or in videos. With the ever-growing interest from the general public in understanding climate sciences, it is becoming increasingly important that scientists present this information in ways that are both accessible and engaging to non-experts. In this pilot study, we use time series data from the first United Kingdom Earth System Model (UKESM1) to create six procedurally generated musical pieces. Each of these pieces presents a unique aspect of the ocean component of the UKESM1, either in terms of a scientific principle or a practical aspect of modelling. In addition, each piece is arranged using a different musical progression, style and tempo. These pieces were created in the Musical Instrument Digital Interface (MIDI) format and then performed by a digital piano synthesiser. An associated video showing the time development of the data in time with the music was also created. The music and video were published on the lead author's YouTube channel. A brief description of the methodology was also posted alongside the video. We also discuss the limitations of this pilot study and describe several approaches to extend and expand upon this work.

Earth System Music: the methodology and reach of music generated from the United Kingdom Earth System Model

Abstract: . Scientific data is almost always represented graphically either in figures or in videos. With the ever-growing interest from the general public towards understanding climate science, it is becoming increasingly important that we present this information in ways accessible to non-experts. In this pilot study, we use time series data from the first United Kingdom Earth System model (UKESM1) to create six procedurally generated musical pieces and use them to test whether we can use music to engage with the wider community. Each of these pieces is based around a unique part of UKESM1's ocean component model, either in terms of a scientific principle or a practical aspect of modelling. In addition, each piece is arranged using a different musical progression, style and tempo. These pieces were performed by the digital piano synthesizer, TiMidity++, and were published on the lead author's YouTube channel. The videos all show the time progression of the data in time with the music and a brief description of the methodology is posted below the video. To disseminate these works, a link to each piece was published on the lead authors personal and professional social media accounts. The reach of these works was analysed using YouTube's channel monitoring toolkit for content creators, YouTube studio. In the first ninety days after the first video was published, the six pieces reached at least 251 unique viewers, and have 553 total views. We found that most of the views occurred in the fourteen days immediately after each video was published. In effect, once the concept had been demonstrated to an audience, there was reduced enthusiasm from that audience to return to it immediately. This suggests that to use music effectively as an science outreach tool, the works needs to reach new audiences or new and unique content needs to be delivered to a returning audience.

Historical ocean heat uptake in CMIP6 Earth System models: global and regional perspectives

Abstract: Ocean heat content is arguably one of the most relevant metrics for tracking global climate change and in particular the current global heating. Because of its enormous heat capacity, the global ocean stores about 93 percent of the excess heat in the Earth System. Time series of global ocean heat content (OHC) closely track Earth’s energy imbalance as observed as the net radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere. For these reasons simulated OHC time series are a cornerstone for assessing the scientific performance of Earth System models (ESM) and global climate models. Here we present a detailed analysis of the OHC change in simulations of the historical climate (20 th