Azerbaijan State Oil Academy

About: Azerbaijan State Oil Academy is a education organization based out in Baku, Azerbaijan. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Fuzzy logic & Computer science. The organization has 195 authors who have published 225 publications receiving 2713 citations.

Fuzzy Time Series Prediction Method Based on Fuzzy Recurrent Neural Network

Abstract: One of the frequently used forecasting methods is the time series analysis. Time series analysis is based on the idea that past data can be used to predict the future data. Past data may contain imprecise and incomplete information coming from rapidly changing environment. Also the decisions made by the experts are subjective and rest on their individual competence. Therefore, it is more appropriate for the data to be presented by fuzzy numbers instead of crisp numbers. A weakness of traditional crisp time series forecasting methods is that they process only measurement based numerical information and cannot deal with the perception-based historical data represented by fuzzy numbers. Application of a fuzzy time series whose values are linguistic values, can overcome the mentioned weakness of traditional forecasting methods. In this paper we propose a fuzzy recurrent neural network (FRNN) based fuzzy time series forecasting method using genetic algorithm. The effectiveness of the proposed fuzzy time series forecasting method is tested on benchmark examples.

Decision Making with Second Order Information Granules

Abstract: Decision-making under uncertainty has evolved into a mature field. However, in most parts of the existing decision theory, one assumes decision makers have complete decision-relevant information. The standard framework is not capable to deal with partial or fuzzy information, whereas, in reality, decision-relevant information about outcomes, probabilities, preferences etc is inherently imprecise and as such described in natural language (NL). Nowadays, there is no decision theory with second-order uncertainty in existence albeit real-world uncertainties fall into this category. This applies, in particular, to imprecise probabilities expressed by terms such as likely, unlikely, probable, usually etc. We call such imprecise evaluations second-order information granules.