Showing papers by "Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis published in 2004"

Capital, labor, and the firm: a study of german codetermination

Abstract: Under the German corporate governance system of codetermination, employees are legally allocated control rights over corporate assets through seats on the supervisory board—that is, the board of nonexecutive directors. The supervisory board oversees the management board—the board of executive directors—approves or rejects its decisions, and appoints its members and sets their salaries. We empirically investigate the implications of this sort of labor participation in corporate decision making. We find that companies with equal representation of employees and shareholders on the supervisory board trade at a 31% stock market discount as compared with companies where employee representatives fill only one-third of the supervisory board seats. We show that under equal representation, management board compensation provides incentives that are not conducive to furthering shareholders' interests, possibly because labor maximizes a different objective function than shareholders. We document that, under equal representation, companies have longer payrolls than their one-third representation peers have. Finally, we provide evidence that shareholders respond to the allocation of control rights to labor by linking supervisory board compensation to firm performance and by leveraging up the firm. (JEL: G32, G34)

The Value of Foreclosed Property

Abstract: This paper examines the expected price appreciation of distressed property and compares it to the prevailing metropolitan area appreciation rate. Whether due to individual property or local area he...

That elusive elasticity : a long-panel approach to estimating the capital-labor substitution elasticity

Abstract: The elasticity of substitution between capital and labor features prominently in several areas of economic research. However, a consensus estimate remains elusive. We develop an estimation strategy that filters panel data in an original way and avoids several pitfalls - difficult-to-specify dynamics, transitory time-series variation, and positively sloped supply schedules - inherent in investment equations that can bias the estimated elasticity. Results are based on an extensive panel containing 1,860 manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms. Our model generates a precisely estimated elasticity of approximately 0.40. The method developed here may prove useful in estimating other structural parameters from panel datasets.

Reducing the Risk at Small Community Banks: Is it Size or Geographic Diversification that Matters?*

Abstract: Most community banks face relatively high levels of diversifiable credit risk because they have relatively few loan customers (idiosyncratic risk) and are not geographically diversified (local market risk). We simulate mergers among community banks to quantify the relative contributions of idiosyncratic risk and local market risk to the default risk assumed by community banks. We find that the greatest risk-reduction benefits are achieved by increasing a community bank’s size, regardless of where the expansion takes place. We interpret this result as evidence that idiosyncratic risk dominates local market risk, especially at rural banks. Community banks face enormous pressure to grow, yet the pressure to geographically diversify is limited. As a consequence, larger community banks are likely to replace smaller community banks, but their focus on relationship lending will not disappear.

Targeting vs. Instrument Rules for Monetary Policy

Abstract: Svensson (JEL, 2003) argues strongly that specific targeting rules first order optimality conditions for a specific objective function and model are normatively superior to instrument rules for the conduct of monetary policy. That argument is based largely upon four main objections to the latter plus a claim concerning the relative interest-instrument variability entailed by the two approaches. The present paper considers the four objections in turn, and advances arguments that contradict all of them. Then in the paper's analytical sections, it is demonstrated that the variability claim is incorrect, for a neo-canonical model and also for a variant with one-period-ahead plans used by Svensson, providing that the same decision-making errors are relevant under the two alternative approaches. Arguments relating to general targeting rules and actual central bank practice are also included.

Racial profiling or racist policing? bounds tests in aggregate data*

Abstract: State-wide reports on police traffic stops and searches summarize very large populations, making them potentially powerful tools for identifying racial bias, particularly when statistics on search outcomes are included. But when the reported statistics conflate searches involving different levels of police discretion, standard tests for racial bias are not applicable. This article develops a model of police search decisions that allows for nondiscretionary searches and derives tests for racial bias in data that mix different search types. Our tests reject unbiased policing as an explanation of the disparate impact of motor-vehicle searches on minorities in Missouri.

The Fed and short-term rates: Is it open market operations, open mouth operations or interest rate smoothing?

Abstract: It is widely believed that the Fed controls the federal funds rate by altering the degree of pressure in the reserve market through open market operations when it changes its target for the funds rate. Recently, however, several analysts have suggested that the Fed need not conduct open market operations to change the funds rate. Rather, they argue it is sufficient that the Fed indicate its desire for the funds rate. This paper notes that there is yet a third alternative, the interest-rate-smoothing hypothesis, that suggests that the Fed does not move rates per se but, rather, smooths the transition of rates to the new equilibrium required by economic shocks. This paper tests the open market and open mouth alternatives using a methodology first used by Cook and Hahn [ Journal of Monetary Economics (1989a) 331]. Finding no evidence that either open market operations or open mouth operations can account for the close relationship between the funds rate and the funds rate target, a variety of evidence consistent with the interest-rate-smoothing hypothesis is considered. The results suggest that many changes in the Fed’s funds rate target are an endogenous response to economic events and suggest that an alternative way to identify exogenous changes in policy is to identify exogenous changes in the Fed’s funds rate target.

Limited Stock Market Participation and Asset Prices in a Dynamic Economy

Abstract: This paper presents a consumption-based model that explains the equity premium puzzle through two channels. First, because of borrowing constraints, the shareholder cannot completely diversify his income risk and requires a sizable risk premium on stocks. Second, because of limited stock market participation, the precautionary saving demand lowers the risk-free rate but not stock return and generates a substantial liquidity premium. This model also replicates many other salient features of the data, including the first two moments of the risk-free rate, excess stock volatility, stock return predictability, and the unstable relation between stock volatility and the dividend yield.

The demise of community banks? Local economic shocks are not to blame

Abstract: The number of US community banks is falling rapidly. Is this reduction being driven in part by banks’ desire to geographically diversify to reduce their vulnerability to local economic shocks? A comparison of the performance of banks in counties that suffered economic shocks in the 1990s with similar banks in counties that did not suffer economic shocks shows that banks withstand local economic shocks quite well. This result suggests that the geographic concentration risk that community banks must bear to focus on relationship lending is small and is not an important factor contributing to the decline of community banks.

The Distribution of Money and Prices in an Equilibrium with Lotteries

Abstract: We construct a tractable model of divisible money and equilibrium heterogeneity in money balances and prices. We do so by considering randomized monetary trades in a standard search-theoretic model of money where agents can hold multiple units of indivisible 'tokens'. By studying a simple trading pattern, we can generate monetary distributions that match those observed in numerically simulated economies with fully divisible money and price heterogeneity.

International transmission of inflation among G-7 countries: A data-determined VAR analysis

Abstract: We investigate the international transmission of inflation among G-7 countries using data-determined vector autoregression analysis, as advocated by Swanson and Granger [Swanson, N., Granger, C., 1997. Impulse response functions based on a causal approach to residual orthogonalization in vector autoregressions. Journal of the American Statistical Association 92, 357–367]. Over the period 1973–2003, we find that unexpected changes in US inflation have large effects on inflation in other countries, although they are not always the dominant international factor. Similarly, shocks to some other countries also have a statistically and economically significant influence on US inflation. Moreover, our evidence indicates that US inflation has become less vulnerable to foreign shocks since the early 1990s, mainly because of the diminished influence from Germany and France.

From Cronies to Professionals: The Evolution of Family Firms

Abstract: We develop a dynamic model where each generation in a family can continue operating its inherited production technology or it could hire a professional to do the same. Though the professional is more qualified, his interests are not aligned with the interests of the family. In the context of an overlapping generations framework, we analyze how this tradeoff affects the evolution of the family firm. We find that family firms initially grow in size by accumulating capital and later professionalize their management after reaching a critical size.

Learning and Structural Change in Macroeconomic Data

Abstract: We include learning in a standard equilibrium business cycle model with explicit growth. We use the model to study how the economy's agents could learn in real time about the important trend-changing events of the postwar era in the U.S., such as the productivity slowdown, increased labor force participation by women, and the "new economy" of the 1990s. We find that a large fraction of the observed variance of output relative to trend can be attributed to structural change in our model. However, we also find that the addition of learning and occasional structural breaks to the standard and widely-used growth model results in a balanced growth puzzle, as our approach cannot completely account for observed trends in U.S. aggregate consumption and investment. Finally, we argue that a model-consistent detrending approach, such as the one we suggest here, is necessary if the goal is to obtain an accurate assessment of an equilibrium business cycle model.

Productivity and the Geographic Concentration of Industry: The Role of Plant Scale

Abstract: A large body of research has established a positive connection between an industry's productivity and the magnitude of its presence within locally defined geographic areas This paper examines the extent to which this relationship can be explained by a micro-level underpinning commonly associated with productivity: establishment scale Looking at data on two-digit manufacturing across a sample of US metropolitan areas, I find two primary results First, average plant size - defined in terms of numbers of workers - increases substantially as an industry's employment in a metropolitan area rises Second, results from a decomposition of localization effects on labor earnings into plant-size and plant-count components reveal that the widely observed, positive association between a worker's wage and the total employment in his or her own metropolitan area-industry derives predominantly from the former, not the latter Localization economies, therefore, appear to be the product of plant-level organization rather than pure population effects

The Information Content of Regional Employment Data for Forecasting Aggregate Conditions

Abstract: We consider whether disaggregated data enhances the efficiency of aggregate employment forecasts. We find that incorporating spatial interaction into a disaggregated forecasting model lowers the out-of-sample mean-squared-error from a univariate aggregate model by 70 percent at a two-year horizon.

Cities, Skills, and Inequality

Abstract: The surge in U.S. wage inequality over the past several decades is now commonly attributed to an increase in the returns paid to skill. Although theories differ with respect to why, specifically, this increase has come about, many agree that it is strongly tied to the increase in the relative supply of skilled (i.e. highly educated) workers in the U.S. labor market. A greater supply of skilled labor, for example, may have induced skill-biased technological change or generated greater stratification of workers by skill across firms or jobs. Given that metropolitan areas in the U.S. have long possessed more educated populations than non-metropolitan areas, these theories suggest that the rise in both the returns to skill and wage inequality should have been particularly pronounced in cities. Evidence from the U.S. Census over the period 1950 to 1990 supports both implications.

Endogenous Export Subsidies and Welfare under Domestic Cost Heterogeneity

Abstract: We present a model of international market share rivalry where the domestic export subsidy is determined by lobbying. Greater domestic cost heterogeneity leads to a higher subsidy level and a larger domestic market share. However, the relationship between cost heterogeneity and welfare is ambiguous. Starting from a near-symmetric situation, an increase in heterogeneity reduces domestic welfare if the number of domestic firms exceeds some critical value. When starting farther from symmetry, the welfare effect is reversed. Our findings are in contrast with the results from the existing literature where lobbying is ignored.

Cities, Skills, and Inequality

Abstract: The surge in U.S. wage inequality over the past several decades is now commonly attributed to an increase in the returns paid to skill. Although theories differ with respect to why, specifically, this increase has come about, many agree that it is strongly tied to the increase in the relative supply of skilled (i.e., highly educated) workers in the U.S. labor market. A greater supply of skilled labor, for example, may have induced skill-biased technological change or generated greater stratification of workers by skill across firms or jobs. Given that metropolitan areas in the U.S. have long possessed more educated populations than non-metropolitan areas, these theories suggest that the rise in both the returns to skill and wage inequality should have been particularly pronounced in cities. Evidence from the U.S. Census over the period of 1950 to 1990 supports both implications.

Did FDICIA Enhance Market Discipline? A Look at Evidence from the Jumbo-CD Market

Abstract: The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Improvement Act of 1991 (FDICIA) forced uninsured creditors such as jumbo-CD holders to bear more of the losses from bank failures. Because no other federal laws affecting loss exposure took effect in the surrounding years, the Act offers a natural experiment for assessing the supervisory returns from greater reliance on debt markets to police bank risk. Accordingly, we examine the sensitivity of jumbo-CD yields and run-offs to risk before and after FDICIA as well as the implied impact of any risk penalties on bank profitability. The evidence indicates that yields and run-offs were risk sensitive in both periods, but that this sensitivity was always economically small and, more importantly, was not significantly higher after the Act. These findings suggest that raising the deposit-insurance ceiling would not - at least in the current institutional and economic environment - exacerbate moral hazard. More importantly, they also suggest that operationalizing debt-market discipline as pillar of bank supervision could prove more difficult than previously thought.

Inflation-Targeting, Price-Path Targeting and Indeterminacy

Abstract: In this paper, we examine the areas of indeterminacy in a flexible price RBC model with shopping time role for money and a central bank that uses an interest rate rule to target inflation and/or the price level. We present analytical results showing that, although inflation targeting often results in real indeterminacy, a price level target generally delivers a unique equilibrium for a relevant range of policy parameters.

Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: A Look Back at Past U.S. Stock Market Booms

Abstract: This paper examines the economic environments in which past U.S. stock market booms occurred as a first step toward understanding how asset price booms come about and whether monetary policy should be used to defuse booms. We identify several episodes of sustained rapid rise in equity prices in the 19th and 20th Centuries, and then assess the growth of real output, productivity, the price level, money and credit stocks during each episode. Two booms stand out in terms of their length and rate of increase in market prices -- the booms of 1923-29 and 1994-2000. In general, we find that booms occurred in periods of rapid real growth and productivity advance, suggesting that booms are driven at least partly by fundamentals. We find no consistent relationship between inflation and stock market booms, though booms have typically occurred when money and credit growth were above average.

Improving forecast accuracy by combining recursive and rolling forecasts

Abstract: This paper presents analytical, Monte Carlo, and empirical evidence on the effectiveness of combining recursive and rolling forecasts when linear predictive models are subject to structural change. We first provide a characterization of the bias-variance tradeoff faced when choosing between either the recursive and rolling schemes or a scalar convex combination of the two. From that, we derive pointwise optimal, time-varying and data-dependent observation windows and combining weights designed to minimize mean square forecast error. We then proceed to consider other methods of forecast combination, including Bayesian methods that shrink the rolling forecast to the recursive and Bayesian model averaging. Monte Carlo experiments and several empirical examples indicate that although the recursive scheme is often difficult to beat, when gains can be obtained, some form of shrinkage can often provide improvements in forecast accuracy relative to forecasts made using the recursive scheme or the rolling scheme with a fixed window width.

Industry Localization and Earnings Inequality: Evidence from U.S. Manufacturing

Abstract: While the productivity gains associated with the geographic concentration of industry (i.e. localization) are by now well-documented, little work has considered how those gains are distributed across individual workers. This paper offers evidence on the connection between total employment and the relative wage earnings of high- and low-skill workers (i.e. inequality) within two-digit manufacturing industries across the states and a collection of metropolitan areas in the U.S. between 1970 and 1990. Using two different measures - 90-10 percentile gaps in both overall and residual wages - I find that wage dispersion falls substantially as industry employment expands. Results from a simple decomposition of this relationship into average plant-size and plant-count components indicate overwhelmingly that average plant size is the primary driving mechanism. Although not necessarily inconsistent with theories appealing to intermediate inputs or technological spillovers, such findings are particularly supportive of Marshall's (1920) labor market pooling explanation for localization.

A Dynamic Factor Analysis of the Response of U. S. Interest Rates to News

Abstract: This paper uses a dynamic factor model recently studied by Forni, Hallin, Lippi and Reichlin (2000) to analyze the response of 21 U.S. interest rates to news. Using daily data, we find that the news that affects interest rates daily can be summarized by two common factors. This finding is robust to both the sample period and time aggregation. Each rate has an important idiosyncratic component; however, the relative importance of the idiosyncratic component declines as the frequency of the observations is reduced, and nearly vanishes when rates are observed at the monthly frequency. Using an identification scheme that allows for the fact that when policy actions are unknown to the market the funds rate should respond first to policy actions, we are unable to identifying a unique effect of monetary policy in the funds rate at the daily frequency.

Is Foreign Exchange Delta Hedging Risk Priced

Abstract: If there is no priced risk - including volatility risk - associated with hedging an option, then expected delta hedging errors should be zero. This paper finds that delta hedging errors of a synthetic at-the-money call option on foreign exchange futures are significantly positive and cannot be explained by standard asset pricing models. However, we cannot rule out the hypothesis that delta hedging errors reflect rational pricing; foreign exchange volatility and stock market volatility predict them. Moreover, foreign exchange volatility also predicts excess stock market returns, indicating that foreign exchange volatility risk might be priced because of its relation to foreign exchange level risk.