Showing papers by "National Bureau of Economic Research published in 1984"

Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have Informationthat Investors Do Not Have

Abstract: This paper considers a firm that must issue common stock to raise cash to undertake a valuable investment opportunity. Management is assumed to know more about the firm's value than potential investors. Investors interpret the firm's actions rationally. An equilibrium model of the issue-invest decision is developed under these assumptions.The model shows that firms may refuse to issue stock, and therefore may pass up valuable investment opportunities.The model suggests explanations for several aspects of corporate financing behavior, including the tendency to rely on internal sources of funds, and to prefer debt to equity if external financing is required. Extensions and applications of the model are discussed.

Tax Subsidies to Owner-Occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach

Abstract: Inflation reduces the effective cost of homeownership and raises the tax subsidy to owner occupation. This paper presents an asset-market model of the housing market and estimates how changes in the expected inflation rate affect the real price of houses and the equilibrium size of the housing capital stock. Simulation results suggest that the accelerating inflation of the 1970s, which substantially reduced homeowners' user costs, could have accounted for as much as a 30 percent increase in real house prices. Persistent high inflation rates could lead ultimately to a sizable increase in the stock of owner-occupied housing.

Econometric Models for Count Data with an Application to the Patents-R&D Relationship

Abstract: This paper focuses on developing and adapting statistical models of counts (non-negative integers) in the context of panel data and using them to analyze the relationship between patents and RD persistent individual (fixed or random) effects, and "noise" or randomness in the Poisson probability function. We apply our models to a data set previously analyzed by Pakes and Griliches using observations on 128 firms for seven years, 1968-74. Our statistical results indicate clearly that to rationalize the data, we need both a disturbance in the conditional within dimension and a different one, with a different variance, in the marginal (between) dimension. Adding firm specific variables, log book value and a scientific industry dummy, removes most of the positive correlation between the individual firm propensity to patent and its R&D intensity. The other new finding is that there is an interactive negative trend in the patents - R&D relationship, that is, firms are getting less patents from their more recent R&D investments, implying a decline in the "effectiveness" or productivity of R&D.

Capital Structure Puzzle

Abstract: This paper contrasts the "static tradeoff" and "pecking order" theories of capital structure choice by corporations. In the static tradeoff theory, optimal capital structure is reached when the tax advantage to borrowing is balanced, at the margin, by costs of financial distress. In the pecking order theory, firms preferinternal to external funds, and debt to equity if external funds are needed. Thus the debt ratio reflects the cumulative requirement for external financing. Pecking order behavior follows from simple asymmetric information models. The paper closes with a review of empirical evidence relevant to the two theories.

The persistence of volatility and stock market fluctuations

Abstract: This paper examines the potential influence of changing volatility in stock market prices on the level of stock market prices. It demonstrates that volatility is only weakly serially correlated, implying that shocks to volatility do not persist. These shocks can therefore have only a small impact on stockmarket prices, since changes in volatility affect expected required rates of return for relatively short intervals. These findings lead us to be skeptical of recent claims that the stock market's poor performance during the 1970's can be explained by volatility-induced increases in risk premia.

Informational Imperfections in the Capital Market and Macro-Economic Fluctuations

Abstract: This paper describes the role that informational imperfections in capital markets are likely to play in business cycles. It then developes a simple illustrative model of the impact of adverse selection in the equity market and the way in which this may lead to large fluctuations in the effective cost of capital in response to relatively small demand shocks.The model also derives an expression for the cost of equity capital in the presence of adverse selection and provides informational explanations for several widely observed macro-economic phenomena.

Cyclical Unemployment: Sectoral Shifts or Aggregate Disturbances?

Abstract: Recent work by David Lilien has argued that the existence of a strong positive correlation between the dispersion of employment growth rates across sectors (G) and the unemployment rate implies that shifts in demand from some sectors to others are responsible for a substantial fraction of cyclical variation in unemployment. This paper demonstrates that, under certain empirically satisfied conditions, aggregate demand movements alone can produce a positive correlation between G and the unemployment rate. Two tests are developed which permit one to distinquish between a pure sectoral shift interpretation and a pure aggregate demand interpretation of this positive correlation. The finding that G and the volume of help wanted advertising are negatively related and the finding that G is directly associated with the change in unemployment rather than with the level of unemployment both support an aggregate demand interpretation. A proxy for sectoral shifts that is purged of the influence of aggregate demand is then developed. Models which allow sectoral shifts in the composition of demand and fluctuations in the aggregate level of demand to affect the unemployment rate independently are estimated using this proxy. The results support the view that pure sectoral shifts have not been an important source of cyclical fluctuations in unemployment.

Are Business Cycles All Alike

Abstract: This paper examines two questions. The first is whether economic fluctuations-business cycles-are due to an accumulation of nall shocks or instead mostly to infrequent large shocks. The paper concludes that neither of these two extreme views accurately characterize fluctuations. The second question is whether fluctuations are due mostly to one source of shocks, for example monetary, or instead to many sources. The paper concludes that evidence strongly supports the hypothesis of many, about equally important, sources of shocks.To analyze the empirical evidence and to reach these conclusions, the paper uses two different statistical approaches. The first is estimation ofa structural model, using a set of just identifying restrictions. The secondis non-structural and may be described as a formalization of the Burns Mitchell techniques. Both approaches are somewhat novel and should be of independent interest.

The Specification and Influence of Asset Markets

Abstract: This paper is a chapter in the forthcoming Handbook of International Economics. It surveys the literature on the specification of models of asset markets and the implications of differences in specification for the macroeconomic adjustment process. Builders of portfolio balance models have generally employed "postulated" asset demand functions, rather than deriving these directly from micro foundations. The first major sec-tion of the paper lays out a postulated general specification of asset markets and summarizes the fundamental short-run results of portfolio balance models using a very basic specification of asset markets. Then,rudimentary specifications of a balance of payments equation and goods market equilibrium conditions are supplied, so that the dynamic distribution effects of the trade account under static and rational expectations with both fixed goods prices and flexible goods prices can be analyzed.The second major section of the paper surveys and analyzes microfoundation models of asset demands using stochastic calculus. The microeconomic theory of asset demands implies some but not all of the properties of the basic specification of postulated asset demands at the macrolevel. Since the conclusions of macroeconomic analysis depend crucially on the form of asset demand functions, it is important to continue to explore the implications of micro foundations for macro specification.

The Demand for Labor in the Long Run

Abstract: The theory of the demand for labor is presented along with a catalog and critique of methods that are used to estimate the parameters that describe empirical labor-demand and substitution possibilities. A critical survey is presented of studies of own-price demand elasticities for labor as a whole and for workers categorized by demographic group, of substitution parameters among workers of different types, and of workers for capital. The main findings are: 1) The long-run constant-output demand elasticity for labor that istreated as homogeneous is between .15 and .5; 2) Own-price demand elasticities are higher for workers that have less general human capital embodied and them; 3) Skilled labor and physical capital are p-complements; and 4) More tentatively, youths and wornenare q-substitutes in production. The implications and importance for policy of these and other results are discussed. Suggestions for improving the literature and narrowing the range of knowledge of the underlying parameters, especially by concentrating more on disaggregated and even microeconornic data, are presented.

The Economic Effects of Dividend Taxation

Abstract: This paper tests several competing hypotheses about the economic effects of dividend taxation. It employs British data on security returns, dividend payout rates, and corporate investment, because unlike the United States, Britain has experienced several major dividend tax reforms in the last three decades. These tax changes provide an ideal natural experiment for analyzing the effects of dividend taxes. We compare three different views of how dividend taxes affect decisions by firms and their shareholders. We reject the"tax capitalization" view that dividend taxes are non-distortionary lump sum taxes on the owners of corporate capital. We also reject the hypothes is that firms pay dividends because marginal investors are effectively untaxed. We find that the traditional view that dividend taxes constitute a "double-tax" on corporate capital income is most consistent with our empirical evidence. Our results suggest that dividend taxes reduce corporate investment and exacerbate distortions in the intersectoral and intertemporal allocation of capital.

Theoretical issues in international borrowing

Abstract: The current crisis in international lending points up a lesson re-learned several times in the past 150 years: the international loan markets function very differently from the textbook model of competitive lending. This paper discusses various extensions of the basic model.First, we amend the textbook model to show how limitations on a government'staxing authority may greatly affect its optimal borrowing strategy.Second, we explore the implications of adebtor country's option to repudiate debt.Third, we show that efficient lending may require collective actions by bank syndicates, and that a breakdown in collective action can result in serious inefficiencies and even financial panics.

Macroeconomics and Finance: the Role of the Stock Market

Abstract: The treatment of the stock market in finance and macroeconomics exemplifies many of the important differences in perspective between the two fields. In finance, the stock market is the single most important market with respect to corporate investment decisions. In contrast, macroeconomic modelling and policy discussion assign a relatively minor role to the stockmarket in investment decisions. This paper explores four possible explanations for this neglect and concludes that macro analysis should give more attention to the stock market. Despite the frequent jibe that "the stockmarket has forecast ten of the last six recessions," the stock market is in fact a good predictor of the business cycle and the components of GNP. We examine the relative importance of the required return on equity compared with the interest rate in the determination of the cost of capital, and hence,investment. In this connection, we review the empirical success of the Q theory of investment which relates investment to stock market evaluations of firms. One of the explanations for the neglect of the stock market in macroeconomics may be the view that because the stock market fluctuates excessively, rational managers will pay little attention to the market informulating investment plans. This view is shown to be unfounded by demonstrating that rational managers will react to stock price changes even if the stock market fluctuates excessively. Finally, we review the extremely important issue of whether the market does fluctuate excessively, and conclude that while not ruled out on a priori theoretical grounds, the empirical evidence for such excess fluctuations has not been decisive.

Debt, Deficits and Finite Horizons

Abstract: Many issues in macroeconomics, such as the level of the steady state interest rate, or the dynamic effects of government deficit finance, depend crucially on the horizon of economic agents. This paper develops a simple analytical model in which such issues can be examined and in which the horizon of agents is a parameter which can be chosen arbitrarily.The first three sections of the paper characterize the dynamics and steady state of the economy in the absence of a government. The focus is on the effects of the horizon index on the economy. The paper clarifies in particular the separate roles of finite horizons and declining labor income through life in the determination of steady state interest rates.The next three sections study the effects and the role of fiscal policy.The focus is on the effects of deficit finance both in closed and open economies. The paper clarifies the respective roles of government spending, deficits and debt in the determination of interest rates.

Time-Separable Preferences and Intertemporal-Substitution Models of Business Cycles

Abstract: Time-separability of utility means that past work and consumption do not influence current and future tastes. This form of preferences does not restrict the size of intertemporal-substitution effects, but does place constraints on the relative responses of leisure and consumption to changes in relative prices and in permanent income. These constraints are important for evaluating the impact of shifts in expectations about the future, which play a key role in equilibrium models of the business cycle. Further, if consumption and effort are to be positively correlated over the cycle, then equilibrium theories with time-separable preferences predict a procyclical behavior for the real wage rate.

Using the Longitudinal Structure of Earnings to Estimate the Effect of Training Programs

Abstract: In this paper we set out some methods that utilize the longitudinal structure of earnings of trainees and a comparison group to estimate the effectiveness of training for the 1976 cohort of CETA trainees. By fitting a components-of-variance model of earnings to the control group, and posing a simple model of program participation, we are able to predict the entire earnings histories of the trainees. The fit of these predictions to the pre-training earnings of the CETA participants provides a test of the model of earnings generation and program participation and simple check on the corresponding estimate of the effectiveness of training.Two factors appear to have a critical influence on the size of the estimated training effects: the time of the decision to participate in training and the presence or absence of individual-specific trends in earnings. We find considerable evidence that trainee earnings contain permanent, transitory,and trend-like components of selection bias. We are less successful in distinguishing empirically between alternative assumptions on the timing of the participation decision. If earnings in the year prior to training are the appropriate selection criterion, however, our estimate of the training effect for adult male CETA participants is about 300 dollars per year. Our estimates for female CETA participants are larger, and less sensitive to alternative models of program participation.

Export Subsidies and International Market Share Rivalry

Abstract: Countries often perceive themselves as being in competition with each other for profitable international markets. In such a world export subsidies can appear as attractive policy tools, from a national point of view, because they improve the relative position of a domestic firm in noncooperative rivalries with foreign firms, enabling it to expand its market share and earn greater profits. In effect, subsidies change the initial conditions of the game that firms play. The terms of trade move against the subsidizing country, but its welfare can increase because, under imperfect competition, price exceeds the marginal cost of exports. International noncooperative equilibriumis characterized by such subsidies on the part of exporting nations, even though they are jointly suboptimal.

Nutrition and the Decline in Mortality Since 1700: Some Preliminary Findings

Abstract: This paper uses the data in the NBER/CPE pilot sample of genealogies to create a new time series on life expectation in the U.S. since 1720. After attaining remarkably high levels toward the end of the eighteenth century, life expectation as measured by e0(10) began a decline that lasted about 80 years before beginning the new rise with which we have long been familiar. Second, time series on the average adult stature of national populations in North America and Europe are used as a measure of nutritional status. The properties of this measure in the analysis of labor welfare and an explanation for the high correlation between stature and the Cini ratio are discussed.The time series on stature is strongly correlated with the series on e0(10) and other measures of mortality. Third, these correlations are used to estimate the contribution of improvements in nutritional status (not diet alone but diet net of prior claims) to the decline in mortality in Europe and America since 1800. Improvements in nutritional status may have accounted for as ifiuch as four tenths of the decline in mortality rates, but nearly all of this effect was concentrated in the reduction of infant mortality. The new findings are used to resolve several paradoxes and the implication of the findings for the standard-of-living controversy are considered.

The Compliance Cost of the U.S. Individual Income Tax System

Abstract: This paper uses evidence from a survey of Minnesota taxpayers to estimate the magnitude and demographic patterns of the compliance cost of filing federal and state income tax returns. It concludes that in 1982 this cost was between $17 and $27 billion, or from five to seven percent of the revenue raised by the federal and state income tax systems combined. About two billion hours of taxpayer time were spent on filing tax returns, and about $3 billion was spent on professional tax assistance.

Excess Sensitivity of Consumption to Current Income: Liquidity Constraints or Myopia?

Abstract: Almost all of the recent empirical tests of the rational expectations - permanent income hypothesis (RE-PIH) have rejected the hypothesis. The null hypothesis in this empirical literature typically consists of the joint hypothesis that 1) agents' expectations are formed rationally, 2) desired consumption is determined by permanent income, and 3) capital markets are"perfect" in the sense that agents can lend or borrow against expected future income at the same interest rate. This paper attempts to determine whether the excess sensitivity of consumption to current income can be attributed to a failure of the third component of the joint hypothesis -- the assumption of "perfect" capital markets -- as opposed to a failure of one or both of the first two assumptions. The paper examines, as a specific alternative to the PIH, a simple "Keynesian" consumption function in which the behavioral MPC out of transitory income is different from zero. Interpreting the unemployment rate as a proxy for the proportion of the population subject to liquidity constraints, the paper uses a generalized version of the econometric model in my earlier paper(1981) to conduct a specification test of the "Keynesian" consumption function. The finding that the estimate of the MPC out of transitory income is dramatically affected, in both magnitude and statistical significance, by the inclusion of the proxy for liquidity constraints suggests that liquidity constraints are an important part of the explanation of the observed excess sensitivity of consumption to current income.

The Analysis of Union Behavior

Abstract: There is now a substantial body of economic research that models the behavior of labor unions as maximization of a well defined objective function. This paper presents both a selective critical survey of this literature and a preliminary consideration of some important problems that have not been addressed in the literature to date. Particular emphasis is on work that is operational in the sense that it has an empirical component or is amenable to empirical implementation. Topics surveyed include 1) the general economic modus operandi of labor unions in the U.S. economy; 2) the structure of bargaining and the efficiency of labor contracts; 3) the bargaining process as it relates to the identification of union objectives; and 4) empirical studies of union objectives. While much is learned from the existing literature, it is argued that amore general political/ economic model of union behavior is needed. This model would derive the objective function of the union in a consistent fashion from the preferences of the workers and union leaders through a well defined political process. Three important issues that are central to the development of such a model are addressed: 1) The determination of the size of the union and the rules used for the allocation of scarce union jobs;. 2) the aggregation of preferences when workers are heterogeneous; and 3) the union leadership asan entity capable of pursuing its own goals.

Theories of Wage Rigidity

Abstract: This paper considers two sets of theories attempting to explain wage rigidities and unemployment: implicit contract theory and the efficiency wage theory. The basic thesis of the paper is that the former set of theories do not provide a convincing explanation of the kind of wage rigidity which is associated with cyclical unemployment,while the latter theories do. Several of the more recent versions of implicit contract theory are considered: implicit contracts with asymmetric information may give rise to over employment rather than underemployment, and the forms of contracts to be expected, were asymmetric information considerations paramount, are not observed.Other versions of the asymmetric information implicit contract model, explicitly long term in nature, may give rise to full employment. One version of implicit contract theory which does give rise to lay-offs arises when search is costly and cannot be monitored. But even this extension does not explain certain important features of observed patterns of unemployment. In contrast, the efficiency wage models not only provide an explanation of the existence of unemployment equilibrium in competitive economies, but they also provide part of the explanation of the observed patterns of unemployment. They also explain why different firms may pay similar workers different wages, why wages may be sticky, why firms maynot loose much if they fail to adjust their wages, and why, when they adjust their wages optimally, they adjust them slowly.The policy implications of the efficiency wage model are markedly different from those of models in which wages are absolutely rigid aswell as from those in which unemployment arises from asymmetric information.

Do Long-Term Interest Rates Overreact to Short-Term Interest Rates?

Abstract: This paper examines the hypothesis that financial markets are myopic by studying the term structure of interest rates. White rejecting decisively the traditional expectations hypothesis regarding the term structure, our statistical results also lead us to conclude that long term interest rates do not overreact to either the level or the change in short termrates. This finding suggests that participants in bond markets are not myopic or overly sensitive to recent events. Our statistical results also suggest that most variations in the yield curve reflect changes in liquidity premia rather than expected changes in interest rates.

Ricardian Consumers with Keynesian Propensities

Abstract: In this paper, we examine Ricardian equivalence of debt and tax finance in a world in which taxes are not lump-sum but are levied on risky labor income. First, we show that the marginal propensity to consume out of a tax cut, coupled with a future income tax increase, is positive under reasonable assumptions regarding preferences toward risk. Second, we document that the degree of income uncertainty facing the typical individual orfamily is large. Third, we show that, for plausible utility function parameters and distributions of future income, the MPC out of a tax cut is quantitatively large. Indeed, the MPC out of a tax cut, coupled with a future income tax increase, can be closer to the Keynesian value that ignores the future tax liabilities than to the Ricardian value that treats future taxes as if they were lump-sum.

The Permanent Income Hypothesis and Consumption Durability: Analysis Based on Japanese Panel Data

Abstract: The permanent income hypothesis is tested on a four-quarter panel of about two thousand Japanese households for ten commodity groups. Consumption is a distributed lag function of expenditures, and the utility function is additively separable in time. Durability is defined as the persistence of the distributed lag. The permanent income hypothesis implies that, for each commodity group, expected change in expenditures is correlated neither with past expenditure changes on other commodities nor with expected change indisposable income, if its own lags are controlled for. The main results are the following: (1) durability is substantial even for food and services, (2)the permanent income hypothesis applies to almost all (probably more than ninety percent) of the population, and (3) the habit persistence hypothesis is rejected in favor of the permanent income hypothesis.

Family Labor Supply with Taxes

Abstract: Over the period 1960 - 1983 the proportion of federal tax revenue raised by taxation of labor supply has risen from 57-77 percent In this paper, we specify and estimate a model of family labor supply which treats both federal and state taxation Husbands and wives labor supply are treated jointly rather than in aseparate manner as in previous research A method to calculate the virtual wage for nonworking spouses is used within a utility maximizing framework to treat correctly the joint family labor supply decision Joint family efforts are found to be important The efficiency cost (deadweight loss) of labor taxation is estimated to be 296% of tax revenue raised The effect of the new 10% deduction to ease the marriage tax for working spouses leads to a prediction of 38% increase in wives labor supply and a 9% decrease in husbands labor supplyOverall taxes paid are predicted to decrease by 34%

Lessons from the 1979-1982 Monetary Policy Experiment

Abstract: The experience of U.S. monetary policy during 1979-82 provided useful and potentially important new evidence about how monetary policy affects economic activity. This paper considers, inthe light of that evidence, six familiar propositions supporting the use of monetary aggregate targets for monetary policy. These propositions deal with money and nominal income, with price inflation and real economic growth, and with long-term interest rates. The evidence from the1979-82 experiment leads to doubt rather than confidence in each of these six propositions, and hence doubt rather than confidence in the use of monetary aggregate targets.

Raids and Offermatching

Abstract: Job changes often occur without spells of unemployment. Highly educated workers, for example, rarely suffer unemployment, even though job changes are common. A large proportion of their job switches occur only after the new job is secured. These workers, whose skills and ability levels are less homogeneous, differ from less skilled, perhaps more homogeneous workers who are more likely to experience unemployment in the process of changing jobs. Most research has focused on job changes that imply spells of unemployment. Indeed, the primary rationale behind the earliest papers on search theory was to explain unemployment. But if there exists what some refer to as a "dual labor market," these theories may be most applicable to the secondary workers. This paper attempts to formulate a theory of turnover and wage dynamics that may better describe the primary labor force, defined as those who change jobs without unemployment. In the process, a number of previously unexamined phenomena are explored.