Showing papers in "American Politics Research in 2011"

The Politics of Belonging: Interest Group Identity and Agenda Setting on Immigration

Abstract: This article explores how interest groups decide policy positions through case studies of three organizations’ shifting stances on the issue of immigration. In all three cases, the AFL-CIO, the Sie...

Divine boundaries: How religion shapes citizens' attitudes toward immigrants

Abstract: How does religion affect one’s attitudes toward immigrants? Scholars have shown that members of minor religious groups are less anti-immigrant than members of majority affiliations and that Evangelical Protestants are particularly hostile. Other scholars have demonstrated that increased religiosity reduces immigrant animus. Here, we argue that religion affects immigration attitudes via a distinct religiously informed interpretation of America’s national identity, which we call Christian nationalism. Christian nationalists believe that America has a divinely inspired mission and link its success to God’s favor. Using social identity complexity theory, we argue that citizens who ascribe to this worldview should be least tolerant of those they perceive as symbolic threats to American national identity. We assess this claim using the 2006 Pew Immigration Attitudes Survey and the 2008 Cooperative Congressional Election Survey. Christian nationalism is a robust determinant of immigrant animus, whereas religious...

Causality in Political Networks

Abstract: Investigations of American politics have increasingly turned to analyses of political networks to understand public opinion, voting behavior, the diffusion of policy ideas, bill sponsorship in the legislature, interest group coalitions and influence, party factions, institutional development, and other empirical phenomena. While the association between political networks and political behavior is well established, clear causal inferences are often difficult to make. This article consists of five independent essays that address practical problems in making causal inferences from studies of political networks. They consider egocentric studies of national probability samples, sociocentric studies of political communities, measurement error in elite surveys, field experiments on networks, and triangulating on causal processes.

Personality Traits and the Consumption of Political Information

Abstract: In this article, we examine the relationship between dispositional personality traits (the Big Five) and the consumption of political information. We present detailed hypotheses about the characteristics of the political environment that are likely to affect the appeal of politics and political information in general for individuals with different personalities as well as hypotheses about how personality affects the attractiveness of particular sources of political information. We find that the Big Five traits are significant predictors of political interest and knowledge as well as consumption of different types of political media. Openness (the degree to which a person needs intellectual stimulation and variety) and Emotional Stability (characterized by low levels of anxiety) are associated with a broad range of engagement with political information and political knowledge. The other three Big Five traits, Conscientiousness, Agreeableness, and Extraversion, are associated only with consumption of specif...

The Social Origins of Adult Political Behavior

Abstract: Political socialization research has focused on the role of parents, extracurricular activities, and the school curriculum during adolescence on shaping early adult political behavior (Beck & Jennings, 1982; Flanagan, Syvertsen, & Stout, 2007; Torney-Purta, Richardson, & Barber, 2004). However, no study to date has examined how properties of adolescents’ social networks affect the development of adult political outcomes. Using social network analysis, we find that both a respondent’s social integration in high school and his friends’ perceptions of their own social integration affect the respondent’s later political behavior as a young adult. Peer and network effects are at work in political socialization. This has important implications for our understanding of the development of social capital, political trust, and political participation, as well as our general understanding about how one’s social network influences one’s own attitudes and behavior.

Text Messages as Mobilization Tools: The Conditional Effect of Habitual Voting and Election Salience

Abstract: Dale and Strauss’s (DS) noticeable reminder theory (NRT) of voter mobilization posits that mobilization efforts that are highly noticeable and salient to potential voters, even if impersonal, can be successful. In an innovative experimental design, DS show that text messages substantially boost turnout, challenging previous claims that social connectedness is the key to increasing participation. We replicate DS’s research design and extend it in two key ways. First, whereas the treatment in DS’s experiment was a “warm” text message combined with contact, we test NRT more cleanly by examining the effect of “cold” text messages that are completely devoid of auxiliary interaction. Second, we test an implication of NRT that habitual voters should exhibit the largest treatment effects in lower salience elections whereas casual voters should exhibit the largest treatment effects in higher salience elections. Via these two extensions, we find support for NRT.

Saved by the Stars and Stripes? Images of Protest, Salience of Threat, and Immigration Attitudes:

Abstract: This article uses a survey experiment embedded in the 2008 CCES national sample to assess how the public responds to immigrant-rights protests and to determine whether symbolic representations of national identity can serve to “prime” attitudes about immigrants and immigration policy. Based on social identity theory, the common in-group identity model, we expect responses to protesters waving American flags as a display of loyalty should be less hostile than responses to protesters waving Mexican flags. Our experiment demonstrates evidence in favor of this proposition but shows no impact of how protesters were framed on immigration policy preferences.

Migration and Sorting in the American Electorate: Evidence From the 2006 Cooperative Congressional Election Study:

Abstract: Migration is a significant factor in the composition of U.S. electoral constituencies, including U.S. House districts. Does migration contribute to geographic homogeneity, and does the result contribute to political polarization in a significant way? This article considers this question using the 2006 Cooperative Congressional Election Survey. To determine individual-level migration patterns, residence information from individual survey respondents is matched to the U.S. Postal Service’s change of address database. This technique provides precise information about respondents’ migration history that follows the preferences expressed in each individual’s survey response. I find support for the claim that migrants are more likely to move into a congressional district that matches their ideological preferences even after controlling for the partisanship in the district of origin. This result emerges for both major parties in two sets of model specifications: multinomial logit models restricted to migrants an...

Does Language Matter? The Impact of Spanish Versus English-Language GOTV Efforts on Latino Turnout:

Abstract: Latino voters comprise a growing segment of the voting electorate, yet their levels of participation in elections lags behind the general population and even other ethnic and racial groups. Recent ...

Environmental Determinants of Racial Attitudes Redux: The Critical Decisions Related to Operationalizing Context

Abstract: Although scholars have long been interested in how context shapes racial attitudes, research in this area has fallen short of a consensus. Instead, the results span a wide range, with some studies finding that racial understanding is promoted by intergroup contact whereas others claim that racial and ethnic outgroups are perceived as a threat to economic and political interests. These varying results arise from research rooted in different conceptualizations of context. Our analysis is unique in the attention we pay to the measure of context for our particular data set. Employing a sociodemographic definition of neighborhood social context, we find that contextual socioeconomic status plays a critical role in mediating the effects of intergroup contact on racial attitudes. These contacts are more likely to produce racial harmony in high-status neighborhoods than in neighborhoods marked by low income and low levels of education.

The Sound, the Fury, and the Nonevent: Business Power and Market Reactions to the Citizens United Decision

Abstract: In the wake of the U.S. Supreme Court decision in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission , supporters of campaign finance reform argued that American politics would soon be awash in corporate cash and that public policy outcomes would reflect the desires of big business. Using event study methodology to isolate the effect of Citizens United on firms’ stock prices, this article finds that the financial markets did not share this view. Rather, key events in the case did not significantly affect the share prices of those large firms heavily engaged in and sensitive to politics, suggesting that investors expected the decision to have no effect on political and policy outcomes of concern to corporate America.

Flooding the Vote: Hurricane Katrina and Voter Participation in New Orleans

Abstract: To what extent did the extensive flooding caused by Hurricane Katrina affect voter participation in the 2006 mayoral election? This article uses voting record data from 20 election cycles, GIS-coded flood-depth data, and census data to examine the voting behavior of registered voters in New Orleans before and after Hurricane Katrina. We use a variety of statistical techniques, primarily propensity score matching methods, to examine how flooding affected mayoral turnout. We find that flooding decreased participation, but registered voters who experienced more than 6 ft of flooding were more likely to participate in the election than those who experienced less flooding. This finding confirms that increasing the cost of voting decreases turnout and suggests several mechanisms motivating an expressive component of voting behavior. Our results indicate there is a complex relationship between participation and the costs and benefits of turnout. Our findings about the characteristics of the voters who participated in the mayoral election provide insights into the scope of change for the political landscape of New Orleans.

Government Monitoring and Political Participation in the United States: The Distinct Roles of Anger and Anxiety

Abstract: The past decade has spurred interest in the potential connection between U.S. government monitoring and political activity. Interestingly, these recent studies demonstrate that rather than chilling political activity, government monitoring in the United States positively associates with political engagement. This article seeks to determine why, for ordinary Americans, government monitoring positively relates to political participation. We argue that the balance of discrete negative emotional reactions to government monitoring provides an answer. We propose that U.S. government monitoring generates more anger than anxiety. Furthermore, we suggest that anger about government monitoring will positively associate with political activity whereas anxiety about monitoring will negatively associate with political engagement. We find support for these hypotheses using data drawn from a unique probability sample survey of U.S. residents. The dominant and discrete reaction of anger about monitoring trumps the less common reaction of anxiety, which leads to a net positive association with political activity.

Turning Out the Base or Appealing to the Periphery? An Analysis of County-Level Candidate Appearances in the 2008 Presidential Campaign

Abstract: We examine county-level campaign appearances by the Republican and Democratic tickets during the 2008 general election. Our analysis reveals that the McCain-Palin ticket campaigned in a way that was quite different from the Obama-Biden ticket. McCain-Palin pursued a “base” strategy that was focused on counties where Bush-Cheney performed well in 2004. They also stayed away from counties that showed vote swings from 2000 to 2004 or population growth. On the other hand, the performance of the Kerry-Edwards ticket in 2004 was a very weak predictor of where Obama-Biden campaigned in 2008. They pursued a “peripheral” strategy that targeted counties that had experienced significant population growth. Their efforts to target peripheral, rather than base constituencies, have significant implications for our understanding of presidential campaign strategy.

The “Multiracial” Option: Social Group Identity and Changing Patterns of Racial Categorization

Abstract: This article focuses on a new and growing trend in the United States: multiracial (or mixed race) identification. Multiracial self-identification forces us to consider that the norms of racial identification are shifting in which Americans perceive greater individual agency in how they choose to racially identify compared to the choices offered in the past. Given this, is the willingness to identify as multiracial a proxy for changing political attitudes about American race relations? Using a unique data set that includes multiple measures of racial identification, this article examines the individual-level determinants that predict who is willing to self-identify as multiracial and the political consequences of this identity. This research demonstrates the complexity of racial identification today as well as the need to reconsider how race is measured in public opinion surveys. Most importantly, the data demonstrate that those who self-identify as multiracial hold different racial attitudes than those wh...

The Constituency Motivations of Caucus Membership

Abstract: The popularity of congressional caucuses is puzzling, given the dominance of political parties and rules that specifically limit caucuses’ resources. Yet modern caucuses offer legislators the unique advantage of complete discretion over their membership decisions, which allows legislators to tailor their memberships to their district. As a result, caucus membership is an important means of constituency representation. Using original data from the 108th Congress, this article examines the House caucus system and legislators’ membership in all 441caucuses. There is strong evidence that legislators’ decisions about caucus membership reflect their constituents even when controlling for party, committee, electoral security, and seniority. Legislators from heterogeneous districts belong to numerous caucuses, which allows them to represent the multiple interests in their constituency. In addition, legislators are more likely to belong to caucuses that address specific issues relevant to constituents.

Case Visibility and the Electoral Connection in State Supreme Courts

Abstract: Critics traditionally portray state Supreme Court elections as low-information events that fail to accomplish the stated goal of engendering accountability to the public. Recent changes in the inte...

The Limited Local Impacts of Ethnic and Racial Diversity

Abstract: The United States has more immigrants than at any time since the 1920s and immigration rates remain high. Past research unequivocally predicts that the resulting increase in ethnic and racial diversity will reduce local investments in public goods. By analyzing a new, comprehensive data set on U.S. cities from 1950 to 2002, this article challenges those predictions. In the 1950s and early 1960s, the percent Black had no strong impacts on local public goods. Since the 1970s, the impact of diversity has been limited chiefly to criminal justice, an issue that has remained racially coded, nationally salient, and relevant to localities. Contrary to past work, diversity’s influence on local public goods is neither pervasive nor consistent. These findings challenge static conceptions of local ethnic and racial divisions, and they suggest a connection between diversity’s local impacts and trends in national politics.

Legislating Versus Campaigning: The Legislative Behavior of Higher Office- Seekers

Abstract: How does a campaign for higher office affect legislators’ behavior on the floor of the House? I argue that legislators with progressive ambition have incentives to demonstrate policy specialization; however, these incentives are mitigated when ambitious legislators campaign for higher office. I develop a measure of policy specialization from floor speeches and test hypotheses with data from the careers of five classes of representatives in the U.S. House. Results show that higher office-seekers demonstrate greater specialization, except when they run for higher office.

Blurring Borders: The Effect of Federal Activism on Interstate Cooperation

Abstract: Interstate compacts are an increasingly important policy tool available to states, one that allows them to tackle regional and national issues. What effect does policy activity at the federal level have on state participation in interstate compacts? Drawing on theories of functional federalism, the authors explore the possibility that a state’s response to federal activism varies across policy domains. For economic policy the authors hypothesize that federal activism causes an increase in compact participation, as states attempt to defend themselves against federal intrusion. In other policy areas the authors expect that states are more likely to enter into compacts during periods of relative federal inactivity. Results from a set of event-count models generally support these hypotheses. The study findings suggest that states may sometimes use interstate compacts as a mechanism to resist federal incursion but that this is just one facet of a more complex pattern of intergovernmental policy adjustment.

The Labor of Judging: Examining Administrative Law Judge Decisions

Abstract: There has been significant scholarly research on judicial decision making and bureaucratic control but little research on bureaucrats who perform a judicial function, namely, administrative law judges. In this article, we analyze the influences on the decisions of administrative law judges (ALJs) from 1991 to 2006. Using ordered logit, we examine the influence of policy preference and hierarchical and political constraint. We find that ALJs are comparable to Federal District Court judges in that they use ideology in their rulings, are also subject to hierarchical control by higher courts, and that they are constrained by separation of powers influences.

Choices in Context: How Case-Level Factors Influence the Magnitude of Ideological Voting on the U.S. Supreme Court

Abstract: Most scholarship on Supreme Court decision making assumes that justices’ ideological preferences exhibit a uniform impact on their choices across a variety of situations. I develop a theoretical framework positing the importance of case-level context in shaping the magnitude of ideological voting on the Court. I hypothesize how issue-related factors influence this magnitude. I test the hypotheses using a multilevel modeling framework on data from the 1953-2004 terms. The results provide support for several of the hypotheses; issue salience, issue attention, the authority for the decision (statutory interpretation versus constitutionality of federal or state laws), intercourt conflict, the presence of a lower court dissent, and mandatory versus discretionary jurisdiction all significantly influence ideological voting. Overall, the article adds significant qualifications to extant theories of judicial decision making by showing how ideological voting on the Court is shaped by the varying situations that con...

Political Knowledge and the Use of Candidate Race as a Voting Cue

Abstract: Do White voters use candidate race as a voting cue in biracial electoral contests? We argue that the answer to this question depends on the level of political knowledge and information that voters have rather than on their attitudes toward minorities. Our analyses of precinct- and individual-level data show that White voters who are likely to be informed about candidates vote less often for the Democratic party when the candidate is Black, whereas vote choices of White voters who are unlikely to be informed about candidates are unaffected by candidate race.

Comparing Ideal Points Across Institutions and Time

Abstract: Many spatial theories of policymaking in the context of a system of checks and balances require the estimation of ideal points which are comparable across institutions. This analysis evaluates comparisons between the president, Senate, and House. For applications which presume that legislators change their positions over time, the most commonly used estimates impose too many restrictions on the ideal points. I consider an alternative approach to creating a common scale by using interest groups (American Conservative Union [ACU] and Americans for Democratic Action [ADA]) as reference actors and incorporating “bridge votes,” roll calls on which the House and Senate vote on identical text. The analysis demonstrates this approach can produce comparable estimates across time and chamber.

Electoral Competition and the Frequency of Initiative Use in the U.S. States

Abstract: To what extent has direct democracy, specifically the ballot initiative process, served to substitute for perceived deficiencies of representative democracy in the United States? Despite extensive literatures on both direct democracy and democratic representation, there exist very few direct evaluations of the interplay between the two I examine whether variation in the frequency of a state’s initiative use is related to the extent to which that state’s representative institutions lack electoral competition I find that initiative states with a higher percentage of uncontested elections for representative office see more initiative use than states with more competitive elections, conditional on the ideological divergence between citizens and legislators The results contribute much to our understanding of the processes driving cycles of initiative use and identify a tangible consequence of the presence of misrepresentative state institutions

Where You Live and Who You Know Political Environments, Social Pressures, and Partisan Stability

Abstract: Do the social pressures individuals encounter from the political environments they reside in affect the stability of their partisanship? Are some citizens able to insulate themselves from such pressure through the composition of their discussion networks? While partisanship is widely regarded as stable, I consider whether it is influenced by such factors. I use panel data from the 1992-1996 and 2000-2004 American National Election Studies to address this, constructing a measure of partisan context at the county level. I find that those residing in a partisan minority county are more likely to change their party identification and that as the degree of incongruence rises, individuals become increasingly likely to change their identification across panel waves. These findings demonstrate the powerful effect of contextual social forces on an otherwise stable and enduring attachment such as partisanship and suggest that partisan socialization is a process that extends beyond an individual’s childhood.

Responsiveness and Electoral Accountability in the U.S. Senate

Abstract: This article examines the link between elections and the representational behavior of senators by considering whether ideological congruence with state preferences impacts vote shares on Election Day. We advance the literature on electoral accountability by proposing a more refined theoretical and empirical assessment of congruence with constituent preferences. Additionally, our analysis focuses on the effect of divergence in the Senate, which has been subject to significantly less attention than the House, and examines all elections to the upper chamber involving incumbents from 1960-2004. We find that measures of ideological divergence that are conditioned on the underlying ideological preferences of state constituencies significantly improve on existing measures, and that senators who are out of step with their state do in fact suffer at the polls.

Shirking the Initiative? The Effects of Statewide Ballot Measures on Congressional Roll Call Behavior:

Abstract: Do ballot measures affect congressional voting behavior? Examining the issues of gay marriage, campaign finance, and minimum wage, we test if the results of statewide ballot initiatives inform congressional roll call votes on legislation occupying the same issue space. Theoretically, we expect signals from ballot measures—which provide precise information about the preferences of a member’s voting constituency—reduce policy “shirking” by members. Our findings across the three issues indicate that ballot initiative outcomes alter the floor votes of members of the House, reducing legislative shirking, but we find that the educative effect of ballot measures is attenuated in the Senate due to institutional factors. We attribute the positive effect in House to the precise signal ballot measures provide members about the preferences of the median voter in their district.

Comparing Institutional and Policy Explanations for the Adoption of State Constitutional Amendments: The Case of Same-Sex Marriage

Abstract: The literature on state constitutional amendments remains undeveloped despite recent activity in the area of same-sex marriage policy. Previous studies have assumed that the adoption of state constitutional amendments is governed by routine policy considerations, but there are strong theoretical reasons for expecting attributes of state institutions also to affect adoption. In this study, I compare institutional and policy explanations for the enactment of state constitutional amendments prohibiting same-sex marriage. Although I expect routine policy considerations to affect the adoption of amendments, I also expect adoption to be influenced by attributes of state institutions, in particular, the capacity of state high courts to produce decisions favoring marriage equality. Using event history analysis, I find that the initial consideration of amendments is driven by policy considerations but that adoption is also guided by institutional considerations, such as the professionalization of state high courts.

Two Become One? Spouses and Agreement in Political Opinions

Abstract: Spouses who talk about politics with each other have long been considered aberrant cases of political discussion because of the frequency of their interaction and the high levels of agreement betwe...