Showing papers in "Criminology in 1999"

Problem-oriented policing in violent crime places: A randomized controlled experiment

Abstract: Over the past decade, problem-oriented policing has become a central strategy for policing. In a number of studies, problem-oriented policing has been found to be effective in reducing crime and disorder. However, very little is known about the value of problem-oriented interventions in controlling violent street crime. The National Academy of Sciences' Panel on the Understanding and Control of Violent Behavior suggests that sustained research on problem-oriented policing initiatives that modify places, routine activities, and situations that promote violence could contribute much to the understanding and control of violence. This study evaluates the effects of problem-oriented policing interventions on urban violent crime problems in Jersey City, New Jersey. Twenty-four high-activity, violent crime places were matched into 12 pairs and one member of each pair was allocated to treatment conditions in a randomized block field experiment. The results of the impact evaluation support the growing body of research that asserts focused police efforts can reduce crime and disorder at problem places without causing crime problems to displace to surrounding areas.

Low self-control and opportunity: testing the general theory of crime as an explanation for gender differences in delinquency*

Abstract: This research tests Gottfredson and Hirschi's general theory of crime as an explanation for gender differences in the delinquency of approximately 2,000 Canadian secondary school students. Separate psychological factors, including a preference for risk seeking, impulsivity, temper, present oriented, and carelessness, are used as measures of self-control, and additional measures of the construct are taken from the frequency of self-reported smoking and drinking. Elements of delinquent opportunity are controlled for by including measures of parental/adult super-vision. These measures and their interactions are used to predict self-reported general delinquency, property offenses, violence, and drug offenses. Results provide partial support for the general theory, revealing relationships between measures of self-control and delinquency that vary by magnitude across genders and for different offense types. Implications for the generality of the theory are discussed.

The gendering of violent delinquency

Abstract: This article addresses two issues that have received little attention in empirical research-the mechanisms explaining variation in violent delinquency within gender and variation in levels of violence across gender, or the gender gap. Toward these ends, the article synthesizes arguments from differential association theory, feminist theory, and gender studies. The outcome is a theoretical model of gender and violent delinquency that focuses on the interplay between structural positions and cultural processes. The theoretical model includes a core construct of differential association theory-the learning of definitions favorable to violence-as well as arguments about cultural definitions or meanings of gender and gender differences in the role of familial controls and peer influence, which are derived from feminist theory and gender studies. It then examines how these cultural processes are conditioned by structural positions. One of the key arguments is that the violent delinquency of females is controlled through rather subtle, indirect mechanisms, while the violence of males is controlled in more direct, overt ways. The results of the empirical analysis support the the-oretical arguments, contribute to the limited understanding of the variation in violent offending among females, and explain the sources of the gender gap in violent delinquency. The article thereby allows greater understanding of the broader phenomenon of juvenile violence.

Low self‐control, social bonds, and crime: social causation, social selection, or both?*

Abstract: This article examines the social-selection and social-causation processes that generate criminal behavior. We describe these processes with three theoretical models: a social-causation model that links crime to contemporaneous social relationships; a social-selection model that links crime to personal characteristics formed in childhood; and a mixed selection-causation model that links crime to social relationships and childhood characteristics. We tested these models with a longitudinal study in Dunedin, New Zealand, of individuals followed from birth through age 21. We analyzed measures of childhood and adolescent low self-control as well as adolescent and adult social bonds and criminal behavior. In support of social selection, we found that low self-control in childhood predicted disrupted social bonds and criminal offending later in life. In support of social causation, we found that social bonds and adolescent delinquency predicted later adult crime and, further, that the effect of self-control on crime was largely mediated by social bonds. In support of both selection and causation, we found that the social-causation effects remained significant even when controlling for preexisting levels of self-control, but that their effects diminished. Taken together, these findings support theoretical models that incorporate social-selection and social-causation processes.

School disorder: the influence of individual, institutional, and community factors*

Abstract: Drawing upon control theory, school climate theory, and social disorganization theory, this study examined the relative influence of individual, institutional, and community factors on misconduct in Philadelphia middle schools. Using U.S. census data, school district data, police department data, and school climate survey data obtained from the administration of the Effective School Battery to 7, 583 students in 11 middle schools, we examined the following predictors of student misconduct: community poverty and residential stability; community crime; school size; student perceptions of school climate (school attachment); and individual student characteristics (e.g., age, race, sex, school involvement and effort, belief in rules, positive peer associations). “Community” was conceptualized in two ways: “local” (the census tract around the school), and “imported” (aggregated measures from the census tracts where students actually lived). We used hierarchical linear modeling techniques (HLM) to examine between- and within-school factors. Individual-level factors accounted for 16% of the explained variance; school and community-level factors (both local and imported) added only small increments (an additional 4.1–4.5%). We conclude that simplistic assumptions that “bad” communities typically produce “bad” children or “bad” schools are unwarranted.

The influence of gender, low birth weight, and disadvantaged environment in predicting early onset of offending: a test of moffitt's interactional hypothesis

Abstract: Little is known about the causes of an early onset of offending. In an attempt to shed light on this issue, some theoretical models have been advanced purporting to explain the reasons for an individual's early initiation into offending. In one of these models, Moffitt (1993) predicts that early onset of offending is caused by an interaction between (1) increased risk for neuropsychological disorders and (2) disadvantaged childhood environments. This study tests Moffitt's hypothesis concerning the development of early offending. In the present analysis, low birth weight was used as a proxy for increased likelihood of neuropsychological deficits, and socioeconomic status and family structure served as indicators for disadvantaged environment. Using the Philadelphia portion of the Collaborative Perinatal Project, we find support for Moffitt's hypothesis that neuropsychological risk and disadvantaged environment interact to produce an early, but not late, onset of offending. In subsequent analysis, the interaction was observed for males but not females. The latter result, however, may be a function of the small number of cases in the female sample. Finally, we address the theoretical and policy implications arising from our analyses and provide some suggestions for future research.

Reconsidering the relationship between ses and delinquency: causation but not correlation*

Abstract: Many theories of crime have linked low levels of socioeconomic status (SES) to high levels of delinquency. However, empirical studies have consistently found weak or nonexistent correlations between individuals' SES and their self-reported delinquent behavior. Drawing upon recent theoretical innovations (Hagan et al., 1985; Jensen, 1993; Tittle, 1995), we propose that this apparent contradiction between theory and data may be reconciled by recognizing that SES has both a negative and a positive indirect effect upon delinquency that, in tandem, results in little overall correlation between the two. We tested this proposal with longitudinal data from the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study. We used measures of parental SES recorded at study members' birth through age 15, social-psychological characteristics at age 18, and self-reported delinquency at ages 18 and 21. We found that low SES promoted delinquency by increasing individuals' alienation, financial strain, and aggression and by decreasing educational and occupational aspirations, whereas high SES promoted individuals' delinquency by increasing risk taking and social power and by decreasing conventional values. These findings suggest a reconciliation between theory and data, and they underscore the conceptual importance of elucidating the full range of causal linkages between SES and delinquency.

Distance decay reexamined

Abstract: The “journey to crime,” or the study of the distance between an offender's residence and offense site, has been a subject of study within criminology for many years. Implications arising from such research touches the majority of criminological theories. An overriding conclusion from this line of research is that most crimes occur in relatively close proximity to the home of the offender. Termed the distance-decay function, a plot of the number of crimes that an offender commits decreases with increasing distance from the offender's residence. In a recent paper, Van Koppen and De Keijser raise the concern that inferring individual distance decay from aggregate-level data may be inappropriate. They assert that previous research reporting aggregated distance-decay functions conceals individual variations in the ranges of operation, which leads them to conclude that the distance-decay function is an artifact. We do not question the claim that researchers should not make inferences about individual behavior with data collected at the aggregate level. However, Van Koppen and De Keijser's analysis raises four important issues concerning (1) the interpretation of the ecological fallacy, (2) the assumption of linearity in offender movements, (3) the interpretation of geographic work on profiling, and (4) the assumption of random target selection within a delimited range of operation. Using both simulated and nonsimulated data, we present evidence that reaches vastly different conclusions from those reached by Van Koppen and De Keijser. The theoretical implications of our analyses and possibilities for future research are addressed.

Homicide, structural factors, and the racial invariance assumption

Abstract: Structural theories in criminology generally assume that the effects of structural conditions on homicide are the same for all race-groups. However, previous homicide research testing this assumption contains methodological shortcomings and has produced inconsistent findings. Therefore, the validity of the “racial invariance assumption” remains highly questionable. Using 1990 data for 125 U.S. cities, this study addresses some of the limitations of previous research in an effort to provide a more definitive examination of race differences in the effects of important structural factors on homicide rates. Contrary to the expectations of the structural perspective, the results from this study reveal substantial and statistically significant race differences. Specifically, the associations between homicide and several measures of socio-economic deprivation (e.g., poverty, unemployment, income inequality, female-headed households, deprivation index) are found to be stronger among whites than blacks. A primary implication of these results is that the current versions of many structural theories need revision in order to account for observed race differences in the effects of structural factors and to explain fully the black-white gap in homicide rates.

Structural conditions and racial homicide patterns: a look at the multiple disadvantages in urban areas*

Abstract: This research examines the differential effects of structural conditions on race-specific victim and offender homicide rates in large US. cities in 1990. While structural theories of race relations and criminological explanations are reviewed, particular attention is given to those structural theories that highlight racial competition, economic and labor market opportunity, and racial segregation as essential for an examination of racially disaggregated homicide offending. The effects of these and other structural conditions are estimated for four racially distinct homicide offending models-black intraracial, white intraracial, black interracial, and white interracial homicides. The results suggest that the structural conditions that lead to race-specific victim and offender homicide rates differ significantly among the four models. Economic deprivation and local opportunity structures are found to influence significantly the rates of intraracial homicide offending, while racial inequality contributes solely to black interracial homicide rates. In addition, our findings indicate that blacks and whites face different economic and social realities related to economic deprivation and social isolation. The differential impact of these structural conditions and other labor market factors are discussed. Criminologists long have studied the question of what differences exist between blacks and whites in their involvement in homicide. Recently, researchers have provided some answers to this question when examining separate black and white homicide offending models (Harer and Steffensmeier, 1992: Messner and Golden, 1992; Messner and Sampson, 1991; Parker and McCall, 1997; Peterson and Krivo, 1993; Sampson, 1985; Shihadeh and Flynn, 1996). Key to these studies is the finding that some *For their informative and insightful suggestions we thank Kenneth C. Land, Donald Tomaskovic-Devey, and Gary D. Hill. The authors would also like to acknowledge the anonymous reviewers and editor of Criminology, who provided valuable comments to this research endeavor.

Stressful life events and delinquency escalation in early adolescence

Abstract: A recent emphasis in criminology has been on trajectories, life transitions, and turning points that affect the escalation, stabilization, or desistance of deviant behavior. The purpose of this article is to describe and examine one potential pathway of delinquency escalation in early and mid-adolescence. It draws upon Agnew's general strain theory and research on adolescent stress to describe a significant transitory stage of the life course. A key organizing principle underlying the proposed pathway is that although stressful life events are highly variable among adolescents, experiencing a persistent or increasing number over time can lead to an escalation of delinquency. Using four years of sequential data from the Family Health Study (651 adolescents aged 11–14 during year one), we estimate a hierarchical growth-curve model that emphasizes the effects of life events on delinquency. The model assumes that delinquency is distributed as an overdispersed Poisson random variable. The results indicate that experiencing a relatively high number of life events over time is related to a significant “growth” of delinquency but that this relationship is not affected by sex, family income, self-esteem, or mastery.

The victim‐offender relationship and calling the police in assaults*

Abstract: The revised National Crime Victimization Survey is used to examine the effects of the victim's relationship to the offender on whether assaults are reported to the police by either the victim or by third parties. The results indicate that the offender-victim relationship affects third-party but not victim reporting. The former effect occurs in part because third parties are unlikely to witness assaults involving people in ongoing relationships, particularly couples, and in part because third parties are reluctant to report minor assaults (i.e., those assaults that involve a threat but no actual attack and no weapon). We discuss possible explanations for why no effect of relationship on victim reporting was found.

Stick-up, street culture, and offender motivation*

Abstract: Motivation is the central, yet arguably the most assumed, causal variable in the etiology of criminal behavior. Criminology's incomplete and imprecise understanding of this construct can be traced to the discipline's strong emphasis on background risk factors, open to the exclusion of subjective foreground conditions. In this article, we attempt to remedy this by exploring the decision-making processes of active armed robbers in real-life settings and circumstances. Our aim is to understand how and why these offenders move from an unmotivated state to one in which they are determined to commit robbery. Drawing from semistructured interviews with 86 active armed robbers, we argue that while the decision to commit robbery stems most directly from a perceived need for fast cash, this decision is activated, mediated, and shaped by participation in street culture. Street culture, and its constituent conduct norms, represents an essential intervening variable linking criminal motivation to background risk factors and subjective foreground conditions.

For a Nonspeciesist Criminology: Animal Abuse as An Object of Study *

Abstract: This article considers a variety of arguments about why theory and research on animal abuse should be developed by criminologists. These include, with more or less satisfaction, the status of animal abuse as (1) a signifier of actual or potential interhuman conflict, (2) an existing object of criminal law, (3) an item in the utilitarian calculus on the avoidance of pain and suffering, (4) a violation of rights, and (5) one of several oppressions identified by feminism as an interconnected whole. The article concludes that animal abuse is an important object of study for criminology not only sui generis but also because its presence may indicate or predict situations of interhuman violence.

Social ties and crime: is the relationship gendered?*

Abstract: A fundamental concept in the systemic model of social disorganization theory has been the social ties among neighbors. Theoretically, social ties among neighbors provide the foundation from which the potential for informal social control can develop. Recent research, however, has shown that not all social ties are equally effective in producing informal social control and decreasing crime rates. Warner and Rountree (1997) have shown that the neighborhood context in which ties occur is related to their crime-fighting effectiveness, and Bellair (1997) has shown that frequent ties are not necessarily the most effective ties. Further examination of the crime-control effectiveness of specific patterns and placements of social ties, therefore, seems a fruitful path to pursue. For example, no research to date has examined potential demographic differences in the effectiveness of ties. This study begins exploration in this area by examining the extent to which the effectiveness of ties in decreasing crime is related to the gendered nature and context of those ties. Using data from 100 Seattle neighborhoods, we find that although women and men display similar levels of local social ties, the effects of these gender-specific ties on crime are different. In particular, female social ties are more effective in controlling crime, particularly in the community-level gendered context of few female-headed households.

Age-varying effects of family, school, and peers on delinquency: a multilevel modeling test of interactional theory*

Abstract: Few criminologists have directly examined whether the importance of family, school, and peers in the etiology of delinquency changes over the developmental period of adolescence. This study tests hypotheses, derived from Thornberry's (1987) interactional theory, about the age-varying effects of attachment to parents, commitment to school, and association with delinquent peers on delinquency by applying Bryk and Raudenbush's (1992) hierarchical linear models to analyze the first five waves of data from the National Youth Survey. Results show that the direct as well as total effects of delinquent peers and school on delinquency tend to increase from early to middle adolescence, reach a peak at the age of mid-13 and mid-15, respectively, and then decline. This curvilinear pattern of change is interpreted as reflective of the process of adolescent development and the age-delinquency relationship. On the other hand, both direct and total effects of family on delinquency are found to be significant throughout the period of adolescence, but the effects do not systematically vary as hypothesized. Theoretical, methodological, and policy implications of the findings are also discussed.

Explaining the gender difference in adolescent delinquent behavior: a longitudinal test of mediating mechanisms*

Abstract: The extent to which mediating mechanisms account for the gender difference in delinquency was tested on a sample of 2, 753 adolescents studied across three points in time. Results using structural equations modeling showed that males are more likely to be involved in delinquent activities, partly because they are less bound to conventional values, more likely to be associated with delinquent peers, and report more adverse experiences with the authorities. These effects remain after partialling out the stability effect of prior delinquency and other sociodemographidstructral variables. However, although males are more likely than females to report frustration in achievement, frustration in achievement does not directly affect subsequent delinquent behavior in a multivariate context. In addition, adolescent males and females tend to report similar patterns of delinquent activities, and the influences of mediating variables on delinquent outcome are generally similar for males and females.

Self‐control and intimate violence: an examination of the scope and specification of the general theory of crime*

Abstract: Ambiguities in Gottfredson and Hirschi's general theory of crime have generated doubts about the explanatory scope of the theory and inconsistencies in the specification of models attempting to test it. In particular, the theory has been criticized for its inability to explain intimate violence; however, an empirical test of this criticism cannot be conducted appropriately unless the theoretical model has been adequately specified. This study tests four models of self-control theory for their ability to explain one form of intimate violence: courtship aggression. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess the ability of measures of low self-control, opportunity, and perceptions of reward to predict the probability of courtship violence in a sample of 985 students currently involved in a dating relationship. The results indicate that while the main effects of low self-control, opportunity, and perception of immediate gratification are significant predictors of the probability of using violence in a dating relationship, it is less clear whether the functional form of the theoretical model accommodates the interaction between low self-control and either opportunity or perceived rewards.

The effect of criminal victimization on a household's moving decision*

Abstract: Only a small body of research addresses the impact of criminal victimization on moving (Skogan, 1990; Taub et al. 1984). Knowledge of this under-researched relationship is important for three reasons. First, moving is costly to the victim both in monetary and psychological terms. Second, if a victimization-mobility relationship exists, then it may partially explain why people migrate to suburban areas from cities. Third, because residential mobility reduces social control that, in turn, potentially results in more crime, evidence that criminal victimization leads to more mobility may help explain a cycle that perpetuates disorder and neighborhood decline (Bursik and Grasmick, 1993; Horwitz, 1990; Miethe and Meier, 1994; Skogan, 1990; Skogan and Maxfield, 1981). This study uses a longitudinal version of the National Crime Survey that includes 22, 375 households to test the hypothesis that criminal victimization is associated with an increased probability that a household moves.

High school experience and the risk of adult incarceration

Abstract: This study assesses the effects of high school educational experiences on the risk of incarceration for young men aged 19–36 using event history analysis and National Longitudinal Survey of Youth data High school education serves as a defining moment in an individual's life course Young men who enroll in secondary occupational course work significantly reduce their likelihood of incarceration both overall and net of differences in the adult labor market High school student/teacher ratios and student composition also significantly affect an individual's risk of incarceration

Delinquency, identity, and women's involvement in relationship violence*

Abstract: This study focuses on factors associated with women's self-reports of relationship violence “perpetration.” We analyzed data derived from personal interviews with 942 respondents who were originally contacted when they were adolescents and then 10 years later as young adults (N=721). Level of delinquency in adolescence was a signicant predictor of adult reports of involvement in relationship violence, for both male and female respondents. In addition, women's scores on the Conflict Tactics scale were related to adolescent and adult identities-higher scores were found among women who reported that they had been viewed as troublemakers as adolescents and who endorsed statements indexing an angry self-concept in adulthood. Although male perpetration represents a much more serious social and public health problem, these data do suggest that there may be a social learning basis for female as well as male expressions of violence.

The limited role of changing age structure in explaining aggregate crime rates

Abstract: Changes in the age structure are shown to have a limited impact on aggregate crime rates. Even the dramatic transformation of the age distribution accompanying the baby boom shifted crime rates by no more than 1 % per year. Projected changes in the age distribution between 1995 and 2010 will lead to slight declines in per capita crime rates. These results are at odds with recent predictions of an impending demographically driven crime wave. Such predictions have focused exclusively on a rise in juvenile crime and ignored the offsetting decreases among adults.

Testing control theory and differential association: a reanalysis of the richmond youth project data*

Abstract: In what has become a classic work in the field, Matsueda (1982) tested control theory against differential association theory using Hirschi's (1969) Richmond Youth Project data. Matsueda found that measures of “definitions favorable to law violation” entirely mediated the effect of his social control measures and friends' delinquency, and concluded that differential association theory was supported over control theory. We note several problems with Matsueda's specification of control theory, and we reanalyze the Richmond data including measures of commitment to conventional goals and several attachment to parents variables that Matsueda excluded. We also propose and test a new method of measuring the social bond, conceptualizing the social bond as a second-order latent construct. In contrast with Matsueda's findings, we find that the social bond and friends' delinquency retain important direct effects on delinquency, and that these effects are greater than those of definitions. Thus, our results are more supportive of control theory than differential association theory.

Selective incapacitation and the problem of prediction

Abstract: Recent innovations in sentencing policy across the United States reveal a renewed interest in the idea of selective incapacitation of criminal offenders. This is perhaps most evident in the proliferation of “Three Strikes and You're Out” habitual-offender statutes across the nation. Although the term was first introduced by David Greenberg in 1975, Peter Greenwood and Allan Abrahamse's eponymous 1982 Rand report represents the most fully articulated plan for implementing such a strategy. The report's release stimulated much discussion, because of the AUTHOR'S claims that selective incapacitation could simultaneously reduce crime rates and prison populations. Ethical problems inherent in such proposals as well as methodological inconsistencies in the original research warrant a reexamination of the proposal and of the empirical basis for the conclusions offered therein. Greenwood and Abrahamse's original research is replicated with a representative sample of California state prison inmates (N = 2, 188) in light of these limitations, with specific focus on the methodological issues concerning the construction of the predictive scale. The selective incapacitation scheme advocated by Greenwood and Abrahamse performs extremely poorly in terms of both reliability and validity, thus precluding the implementation of such schemes. The article contains a discussion of other, more ethically acceptable uses of an instrument that identifies “high-rate” or “dangerous” offenders. In conclusion, some observations on the limitations of incarceration-based strategies of crime control are offered.

Collective action in prisons: protests, disturbances, and riots*

Abstract: This study assesses competing explanations of inmate collective action using data from a nationwide sample of 317 adult maximum-and medium-security state prisons. Most previous studies have relied on data from only those prisons that have experienced riots. Hence, the conditions thought to cause collective outbursts may be equally present in prisons that did not experience such action. The current design allows for a comparison of riot and nonriot prisons. Additionally, this study examines the forces that generate other forms of collective action in prison, such as minor disturbances and inmate work stoppages. The results show that the variables under the administrative-control theory heading, but not the inmate-balance theory heading, help account for these events. Some consideration is given to the possibility that these two theories are complementary explanations.

An empirical test of tittle's control balance theory*

Abstract: Classic statements of control theory propose that individuals who are controlled or bonded will be more likely to be deterred from deviance, while those who are not controlled or bonded will be more likely to turn to deviance. In a recent restatement of control theory, Tittle (1995) offers an alternative viewpoint. Though he agrees that a lack of control (a control deficit) can lead to repressive forms of deviance (predation, defiance, and submission), Tittle also asserts that overcontrol (a control surplus) may lead to autonomous types of deviance (exploitation, plunder, and decadence). Terming it control balance theory, Tittle argues that the amount of control to which one is subject relative to the amount of control one can exercise (i.e., the control ratio) affects not only the probability that one will engage in a deviant act, but also the specific form or type of deviance. In this article, we focus on one of the key hypotheses of control balance theory: an individual's control balance ratio predicts deviant behavior. We examine this hypothesis using two vignettes designed to investigate the repressive acts of predation and defiance. Segmented, nonlinear regression results yield mixed evidence in that both control surpluses and control deficits significantly predict predation and defiance. The theoretical implications of our results for control balance theory are discussed.

In the company of women: structure and agency in a revised power‐control theory of gender and delinquency*

Abstract: A power-control theory of the gender-delinquency relationship draws attention to differences in familial control practices. We extend the theory to address how parental agency and support for dominant attitudes or schemas influence male as well as female delinquency. This extension emphasizes that differences in structure, particularly between more and less patriarchal households, result in different family practices, especially for mothers and sons. We find that variation in mothers' agency within the home affects their sons' support of conventional views, in particular, attitudes about the gendered nature of activities, risk preferences, and beliefs about impunity, as well as their involvement in delinquent activities. Thus, the agency of mothers in less patriarchal families is an underappreciated source of reduced delinquency among sons.

Unemployment, imprisonment, and social structures of accumulation: Historical contingency in the Rusche-Kirchheimer hypothesis

Abstract: This study explores the relationship between punishment and social structure by combining the work of Rusche and Kirchheimer with current theorizing regarding social structures of accumulation (SSAs). Specifically, we theorize that the unemployment-imprisonment (U-I) relationship is historically contingent. In particular, we argue that qualitative changes in the configuration of labor markets, state strategies for managing surplus populations, and international relations across SSAs and stages within them result in changes in the magnitude and direction of the U-I relationship. In other words, changes in the qualitative relations among capital, labor, and the state are reflected in quantitative changes in the relationship between rates of unemployment and imprisonment. We hypothesize that three stages of the Fordist SSA (exploration, 1933–1947; consolidation, 1948–1966; decay, 1967–1979) will manifest varying levels of a positive and significant U-I relationship, while the first stage of the new globalized, cyber-technology SSA (1980–1992) will be characterized by a negative U-I relationship due to the co-emergence of a (semi)permanent underclass and an intensification of punitiveness. We test this model using a structurally periodized analysis to determine if the relationship between rates of unemployment and new court admissions to prison (net of rates of violent crime) differs across the four periods studied. Our analysis of the U-I relationship within each SSA phase, and time-varying parameter tests of the periodization of twentieth-century capitalist development, indicate that the U-I relationship is indeed historically contingent and warrants further structurally periodized analysis.

On the use of panel research designs and random effects models to investigate static and dynamic theories of criminal offending

Abstract: There is a long-standing debate in criminology about the relative impact of static versus dynamic factors on criminal behavior. Researchers interested in estimating the impact of dynamic factors like prior offending or association with delinquent peers on criminal offending must control for static factors like intelligence, family background, or self-control, which could plausibly be correlated with criminal offending and the dynamic factor itself. Unfortunately, as a practical matter, it is not possible to observe all of these static factors. Statisticians and econometricians have shown that it is possible to identify the collective effect of static factors even though they cannot be observed. To achieve this objective, however, it is necessary to account for stable, unobserved individual characteristics through the use of “fixed-effect” or “random-effect” estimation. Criminologists often use random-effect estimators in these situations. We describe some of the assumptions that are necessary to develop valid inferences when time-varying covariates are used. Then, we use simulation evidence and an empirical application to show that bias can result when they are violated.

Female and male homicide victimization rates: comparing trends and regressors*

Abstract: This study compares national female and male homicide victimization rates (HVRs) during 1930–1995. The trends are almost the same, even when separated by race, in spite of large gender differences in HVR levels. When regressing female and male HVRs on demographic, economic, social control, and other variables, the coefficients differ between the sexes only to the extent expected by chance. The important predictors relate to offenders and are independent of the type of victim; the incapacitation impact of prison populations is especially strong for all HVRs. This is consistent with others' findings that men who murder women, and even those who commit sexual and partner assaults, have criminal records nearly as bad as offenders generally. These findings have implications for several broader topics: the usefulness of data dis-aggregation, the usefulness of crime situation theories, the reasons for declining homicide rates, and strategies for reducing violence against women.