Showing papers in "Electoral Studies in 1992"

It was party identification all along: Question order effects on reports of party identification in Britain☆

Abstract: The British voter is less likely than the American to make a distinction between his current electoral choice and a more general partisan disposition. This article investigates whether this difference might be due to a methodological difference between the British and American Election surveys: the British surveys, unlike the American, have placed the party identification question after the question on electoral choice, and this order may encourage the British respondents to bring their reports of their party identification into line with their actual votes. A split-sample panel study experiment was conducted to test this hypothesis. The results were not decisive, but they did suggest that the ‘improper’ question order elicited a smaller proportion of ‘true’ party identifiers and produced response uncertainty in the reporting of party identification. The concept of party identification is routinely employed in the analysis of British electoral behaviour, but it carries with it the aura of original sin that it acquired when Butler and Stokes (1969) first investigated the phenomenon in the British political context but preferred to label it ‘partisan self-image’ rather than call it by the familiar name used in the United States. Butler and Stokes acknowledged that partisan self-images in Britain displayed many of the properties associated with party identification in the United States. The strength of partisan self-image intensified with age; partisan self-images were more Prepared for delivery at the 1991 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, The Washington Hilton, 29 August to 1 September 1991. Copyright by the American Political Science Association.

Incumbency Advantage in Japanese Elections

Abstract: In US congressional elections, incumbency advantage has been growing. Against such an American scene, Japanese national elections between 1958 and 1990 are analysed. It has been shown that incumbency advantage has remained stable by and large in Japan. Several possible factors are discussed for the Japan-US difference.

Left-right self-identification and (post)materialism in the ideological space; their effect on the vote in the Netherlands

Abstract: Left-right self-identification appears to be associated in the Dutch electorate with the two dimensions comprising the ‘ideological space’: socio-economic (egalitarian) left-right ad politico-cultural libertarianism-authoritarianism. This study shows the stable two-dimensionality of this ‘space’. Thus, left-right self-identification seems to lack unambiguous content validity. It is only the best predictor of the vote if the parties are ordered according to the mean positions of their supporters on the socio-economic left-right ideological dimension. When the parties are ordered along the other dimension of the space (the libertarian-authoritarian dimension), religion (church attendance) proves to be the best predictor. Religion and authoritarianism prove to be stronger predictors of left-right self-identification rather than social class and socio-economic left-right ideology. (Post)materialism only plays a modest role regarding predicting either the left-right or the authoritarian vote, although this construct overlaps with libertarian-authoritarian ideology (e.g. Flanagan, 1987). Thus, neither left-right self-identification nor (post)materialism seem fruitful approaches to the realm of ideology and values. The results of this study challenge both for example, the Niemoller-Van der Eijk (1987) position on left-right self-identification and the Van Deth-Geurts (1989) position on (post)materialism.

Leaders, rank and file, and constituents: Electoral reform in Colombia and Venezuela

Abstract: Pressures for electoral reform can be expected in closed-list electoral systems that concentrate power within the hands of party leadership, as in Venezuela, or, at the other extreme, in those which encourage intraparty factions, as in Colombia. Reforms occur when relations among party leaders, rank and file, and constituents become skewed to the detriment of governmental accountability and ability to address serious policy problems. Reforms in Venezuela include the adoption of a Swiss-style panachage system for municipalities and a German-style system for the Congress, although the latter is likely to function differently in Venezuela's presidential system than in a parliamentary system. In Colombia, a constitutional convention was elected in 1990 on a basis of nationwide representation in order to circumvent the existing Congress and implement reforms. The experiences of these countries offer lessons for other developing democracies, with specific reference made to the Dominican Republic and the Philippines.

Television viewing and voting 1972–1989

Abstract: Some of the earliest and most persistent concerns about mass communication (and television in particular) revolve around its implications for the electoral process. On one hand, the idea of an informed and active citizenry is central to democratic principles and practices, and no technology in human history has had the potential to inform and activate as many people as quickly and as pervasively as television. On the other hand, the sheer volume of information television disseminates, the amount of time people attend to it, and the specific images of political phenomena television selects to present (or fails to present) can all have the opposite function—television may narcotize the electorate, promote cynicism and disaffection, inhibit interest and the acquisition of information, and ultimately suppress participation in a democratic political system.

Sources of electoral support for minor parties: The case of the Australian Democrats

Abstract: Electoral support for a political party can come predominantly from four sources—social-structural, partisan, ideological or contemporary political factors—and the basis of a party's support is critical for its long-term survival. Using this model we find that the Australian Democrats, Australia's principal minor party since 1977, have only a weak social-structural base and this base has been declining. The most consistent sociological factor associated with the Democrat vote is tertiary education. Nor does the Democrat vote have a strong ideological base, although postmaterialism and environmentalism are associated with Democrat support to some extent. Much of the support for the Democrats comes from partisanship and contemporary political factors. The Democrats' partisan base declined between 1979 and 1987 but has since had a resurgence. Of the contemporary political factors, evaluations of the party leaders have a strong influence on the Democrat vote and so, to a lesser extent, do economic evaluations. These findings suggest that if the Democrats can maintain their partisan base and continue to draw support from the impact of contemporary political factors, they will be a feature of Australian politics for some time to come. However, their reliance on these factors makes them vulnerable to the winds of short-term political change. These findings are evaluated in the light of evidence about minor parties in other countries.

Apportionment and the boundary commission for England

Abstract: Political apportionment is the allocation of an integer number of seats to each of a number of subunits into which a legislature is divided. This paper introduces the theoretical issues, and then applies the theory to the apportionment of parliamentary seats in the United Kingdom. It shows that the outcome is defective by comparison with desirable and achievable standards, and that the defects lead to predictable biases of representation in favour of certain parts of the country. The defects have arisen partly through manipulation for party advantage, but largely because of a failure of all concerned to understand the theory of apportionment.

Early Post-redemocratization Elections in Africa

Abstract: The recent resurgence of multi-party systems in sub-Saharan Africa has created the conditions for a significant increase in the number of competitive elections involving contending political parties. Analysis of seven competitive elections occurring early on in this process indicates considerable variation in the conduct and style of elections and the nature of competing parties. Four out of the seven elections produced victories for the opposition and peaceful change of government through the ballot box.

The Best of Both Worlds?: The Danish Electoral System 1915-20 in a Comparative Perspective

Abstract: The Danish 1915–1920 Lower House electoral system combined a traditional plurality system and a PR system with multi-stage compensatory seats in two provincial regions, and closed party list PR in the third, metropolitan, region. This complex system is presented and its effects on the distribution of seats in the Folketing are analysed. It was an early—and now neglected—case of personalized PR which calls for comparisons with later cases of this kind of electoral system, notably the post-1949 German electoral system and the 1990 electoral systems in Hungary and Bulgaria. In order to assess if such comparisons are appropriate, the paper also asks if these four electoral systems are genuine ‘mixed’ systems or PR systems in disguise.

Demography and federal elections in Germany 1953-1990--and beyond.

Abstract: In recent years growing differences in voting between older and younger voters have been observed in Germany. Cohort analytic techniques are used here in order to break up such differences into those that reflect either life cycle or generational effects on turnout and the vote. The data base is a unique set of official statistics that has been collected in Germany since 1953 by marking a random sample of ballots according to sex and age of voters. The analysis shows that both life cycle and cohort factors have had a significant and systematic impact on turnout and the probability of a vote for each party. It is also demonstrated that the growing polarization by age of the vote for some parties primarily reflects generational disparities, not an increased importance of the life cycle. Finally, the impact of such demographic factors on the electoral performance of the parties from one Bundestag election to the following one is assessed, and a forecast of these effects up to the year 2006 is presented.

Whither the PRI? Explaining voter defection in the 1988 Mexican presidential elections

Abstract: Based on a nationwide Gallup poll conducted in Mexico in May 1988, we study voters who said that they had voted for Mexico's ruling party (the Institutional Revolutionary Party—PRI) in 1982 but would not in the July 1988 presidential election. By means of logistic regression, we argue that the intended behaviour of these self-identified PRI defectors is best explained by their judgements about the prospects for the political regime's institutions and by their view of candidate Carlos Salinas's personal qualities. Defection was not explained, however, by the demographic characteristics or life circumstances of voters nor by their attitudes about specific policy issues nor by their views about the performance of the country's economy.

The Italian general election of 1992

Abstract: The Parliament elected in 1987 was the first since the 1960s to complete its full five-year span, but at the dissolution its record suggested stalemate as much as stability. Some limited steps had been taken towards the changes in institutional arrangements and public policy that have for some years been widely agreed to be necessary, but they were modest in relation to the scale of the problems of political disaggregation, executive weakness, and budgetary overload Italy now faces. Tensions inside the five-party (pentapartito) government-especially between the Christian Democrats and the Socialists-produced four governments under three different DC prime ministers, Goria, De Mita, and Andreotti. The fimal year of the legislature was a particularly sterile one: in effect an extended election campaign with the coalition hoping to benefit from the decline of the opposition Communist Party-a process already well-advanced during the 1980s and apparently set to accelerate following the collapse of international communism. As the results set out in the Table on p.380 demonstrate, such hope was illconceived. The electoral decline of the Communist opposition, following its transformation into the Democratic Left Party (PDS), was substantial, (26.6 to 16.1 per cent) but the greatest part of this went to the breakaway Communist Refoundation (RC). Indeed, instead of boosting the fortunes of the coalition, the end of the cold war seemed to liberate voters of the political centre to protest against the policy failures of the government. The narrowing ideological spectrum helped focus political debate on a range of issues-the adequacy of basic services, the failure of the state to guarantee the fundamentals of law and order, the transparency and probity of public life-which undermined confidence not just in particular leaders or parties but in the entire political class.

The Israeli general election of 1992

Abstract: The 23 June elections for Israel’s thirteenth Knesset ended in what Israelis called a ‘mahapach’-an upheaval. The Labour Party recaptured its pivotal position in the Knesset. For the first time since the December 1973 Knesset elections, Labour and the more ‘dovish’ parties gained a majority in the Knesset-together controlling 61 out of the 120 seats. The Likud, which led the government prior to the elections, the more hawkish parties and the religious parties won only 59 seats. Of those eligible to vote 2,637,943 out of 3,409,015 participated in the elections. It was the first time since the establishment of the state of Israel that the number of eligible voters exceeded three million. Ten per cent of the electorate consisted of young voters who reached voting age (18) only after the elections to the twelfth Knesset. Nine per cent of the eligible voters were new immigrants most of whom came to Israel from the USSR (and its successors) after the November 1988 elections. Turnout reached 77.4 per cent compared with 79.7 per cent in the 1988 elections, 2,616,841 valid votes were distributed among 25 ‘lists-of-candidates’, 0.8 per cent of the votes were invalid (1.0 per cent in 1988). Israel continued to employ an extreme PR electoral system, using a single nationwide constituency and implementing the Hagenbach-Bischoff formula in order to determine the exact number of seats to be allocated to each of the competing ‘strict-lists’. The threshold was raised from 1.0 per cent, used in all previous elections, to 1.5 per cent of the valid votes. This pushed several small parties to unite before the elections, 5.0 per cent of the valid votes, however, were given to parties that did not pass the threshold (2.4 per cent in 1988). The Labour Party adopted a series of reforms prior to the elections. Thus, more than 100,000 party members took part in its primaries in which the candidate for premiership and its Knesset candidates were elected. Labour signed a surplus agreement with the more dovish Meretz. Meretz is a combination of the CRM, Mapam and Shinui, all of which had participated separately in 1988. To the ‘left’ of Meretz are the three Arab-supported parties, the communist-led Democratic Front for Peace and Equality (Hadash), the Progressive List and the Arab Democratic List (ADL) which ran separately as they did in 1988. The Likud reached the peak of its popularity towards the end of 1991 with Israel’s participation in the Madrid peace conference. Later, however, its popularity decreased considerably. In the process of selecting its candidates for premiership *The study was made possible (in parts) by the Charles H. Revson Foundation. It was carried out within the framework of the Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies. The statements made and the views expressed are solely the responsibility of the author.

Risky business: Partisan volatility and electoral choice in Canada, 1988

Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of partisanship, issue concerns and party leader images on voting behaviour in the November 1988 Canadian federal election. The 1988 campaign, characterized by a heated debate between the governing Progressive Conservatives and the opposition Liberals concerning the (de)merits of free trade with the United States, produced a second consecutive Conservative parliamentary majority for only the first time since the end of World War I. This result, coming in the wake of the 1984 ‘Tory tide’ that dealt the then governing Liberals their worst defeat in Canadian history raises the possibility that the 1980s was a period of partisan realignment. Such a realignment, if it occurred, would mark a major change in an electorate that long has been distinguished by partisan weakness and instability (Meisel, 1975; LeDuc et al. , 1984). However, analyses of national cross-sectional and panel survey data gathered throughout the 1980s 1 demonstrate conclusively that there has been no realignment and that, similar to earlier elections, voting in 1988 was strongly affected by highly volatile short-term forces. Post-1988 surveys show that partisanship remains weak and unstable, and it is very likely that such forces will remain ascendant in the foreseeable future.

Policy and performance orientations in the United States

Abstract: The 1980 and 1984 United States elections marked a major turning point in the ideological orientation of public policy. Many argued that these elections reflected a policy mandate by the electorate who preferred Reagan's conservative policies. Two dimensions are employed to compare voting decisions in the elections from 1952 to 1984. The first dimension determines whether citizens evaluate candidates on the basis of policies, performance, or strictly candidate attributes; the second examines the time perspective of these assessments, that is, whether they are retrospective or prospective. Data from the University of Michigan, National Election Studies reveal that the single most important factor, and the only one that can account for Reagan's electoral victories was retrospective performance. In 1984, Reagan enjoyed a landslide re-election victory because a substantial fraction of the electorate voted against their own policy interests and rewarded Reagan with another term because of his past performance. The 1984 election outcome, therefore, was a reward, not a mandate.

The electoral risk of redistricting: Evidence from the United States

Abstract: This article investigates whether redistricting poses an electoral risk to the re-election of incumbent US representatives. Incumbency is conceptualized as a ‘treatment’ that representatives can apply to congressional districts through traditional means of district attentiveness and representativeness. Redistricting is conceived as a naturally occurring phenomena, that is, a quasi-experiment. It is used to measure the risk of redistricting by comparing the electoral support received by incumbents in their ‘old’ territory, which has been previously exposed to the treatment of incumbency, to the level of support they receive in various kinds of ‘new’ territory added by redistricting, which has not yet been exposed to the effects of their incumbency. Analysis of county election returns for six American states from 1972 to 1984 indicate that incumbents initially receive marginally less support in the ‘new’ territory when compared with the ‘old’ but that incumbents are able to quickly eliminate the difference between the two kinds of territory. The analysis concludes that redistricting does not pose a serious threat to incumbent re-election.