Showing papers in "Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis in 1995"

The Conditional Relation between Beta and Returns

Abstract: Unlike previous studies, this paper finds a consistent and highly significant relationship between beta and cross-sectional portfolio returns. The key distinction between our tests and previous tests is the recognition that the positive relationship between returns and beta predicted by the Sharpe-Lintner-Black model is based on expected rather than realized returns. In periods where excess market returns are negative, an inverse relationship between beta and portfolio returns should exist. When we adjust for the expectations concerning negative market excess returns, we find a consistent and significant relationship between beta and returns for the entire sample, for subsample periods, and for data divided by months in a year. Separately, we find support for a positive payment for beta risk.

Cointegration, Error Correction, and Price Discovery on Informationally Linked Security Markets

Abstract: Using synchronous transactions data for IBM from the New York, Pacific, and Midwest Stock Exchanges, we estimate an error correction model to investigate whether each of the exchanges is contributing to price discovery. Johansen's test yields two cointegrating vectors, which together verify the expected long-run equilibrium of equal prices across the three exchanges. Two error correction terms specified as the differences from IBM prices on the NYSE indicate that adjustments maintaining the long-run cointegration equilibrium take place on all three exchanges. That is, IBM prices on the NYSE adjust toward IBM prices on the Midwest and Pacific Exchanges, just as Midwest and Pacific prices adjust to the NYSE.

Numerical Valuation of High Dimensional Multivariate American Securities

Abstract: We consider the problem of pricing an American contingent claim whose payoff depends on several sources of uncertainty. Several efficient numerical lattice-based techniques exist for pricing American securities depending on one or few (up to three) risk sources. However, these methods cannot be used for high dimensional problems, since their memory requirement is exponential in the number of risk sources. We present an efficient numerical technique that combines Monte Carlo simulation with a particular partitioning method of the underlying assets space, which we call Stratified State Aggregation (SSA). Using this technique, we can compute accurate approximations of prices of American securities with an arbitrary number of underlying assets. Our numerical experiments show that the method is practical for pricing American claims depending on up to 400 risk sources.

Arbitrage, cointegration, and testing the unbiasedness hypothesis in financial markets

Abstract: We use a no-arbitrage, cost-of-carry asset pricing model to show that the existence of coin? tegration between spot and forward (futures) prices depends on the time-series properties of the cost-of-carry. We argue that the conditions for cointegration are more likely to hold in currency markets than in commodity markets, explaining many of the empirical results in the literature. We also use this model to demonstrate why the forward rate forecast error, the basis, and the forward premium are serially correlated, and to develop econometric tests ofthe "unbiasedness hypothesis" (sometimes called the "simple efficiency hypothesis") in various financial markets. The unbiasedness hypothesis is so prevalent in the finance liter? ature that many tests for it have been developed. We examine four of the common tests and and use our cointegration results to demonstrate why each of these tests should reject the null hypothesis of unbiasedness. We find strong support for our hypothesis in the existing empirical literature.

On Equilibrium Pricing under Parameter Uncertainty

Abstract: Prior theoretical work on estimation risk generally has been restricted to single-period, returns-based models in which the investor must estimate the vector of expected returns but the covariance matrix is known. This paper extends the literature on parameter uncertainty in several ways. First, we analyze asymmetric parameter uncertainty in a model based on payoffs. Second, we explore the effects of both symmetric and asymmetric estimation risk on equilibrium asset prices when the covariance matrix for payoffs must also be estimated. Finally, we investigate the effects on equilibrium of asymmetric parameter uncertainty in a simple multiperiod model.

The short-run dynamics of the price adjustment to new information

Abstract: We examine how prices in interest rate and foreign exchange futures markets adjust to the new information contained in scheduled macroeconomic news releases in the very short run. Using 10-second returns and tick-by-tick data, we find that prices adjust in a series of numerous small, but rapid, price changes that begin within 10 seconds of the news release and are basically completed within 40 seconds of the release. There is some evidence that prices overreact in the first 40 seconds but that this is corrected in the second or third minute after the release. While volatility tends to be higher than normal just before the news release, there is no evidence of information leakage. In our analysis, we correct for the biases created by bid-ask spreads and tick-by-tick data.

Exchange Rate Fluctuations, Political Risk, and Stock Returns: Some Evidence from an Emerging Market

Abstract: We study the impact of exchange rate fluctuations and political risk on the risk premiums reflected in cross-sections of individual equity returns from Mexico, a country that has ex? perienced significant monetary and political turbulence. Indicators from Mexico's currency and sovereign debt markets are employed as proxies for exchange rate and political risks. We find some evidence of equity market premiums for exposure to these risks. The results suggest common factors in emerging market equity, currency, and sovereign debt markets, and have several implications for corporate and portfolio management and for the use of emerging market data by researchers.

The Intraday Behavior of Bid-Ask Spreads for NYSE Stocks and CBOE Options

Abstract: We study the intraday behavior of bid-ask spreads for actively traded CBOE options and for their NYSE-traded underlying stocks. We confirm previous findings that stocks have a U-shaped spread pattern; however, the options display a very different intraday pattern—one that declines sharply after the open, and then levels off. Our results suggest that both the degree of competition in market making and the extent of informed trading are important for understanding the intraday behavior of spreads.

Information Costs and Liquidity Effects from Changes in the Dow Jones Industrial Average List

Abstract: We examine the stock market effect of changes in the composition of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Unlike S&P 500 listing studies, we find that the price and the trading volume of newly listed DJIA firms are unaffected. We attribute this result to a lack of index fund rebalancing, since index trading is limited for most of our sample period and index funds mimic the S&P 500, not the DJIA. Firms removed from the index, however, experience significant price declines. We consider information signaling, price pressure, imperfect substitutes, and information cost/liquidity explanations for these asymmetric findings. The evidence is consistent with the information cost/liquidity explanation, which holds that investors demand a premium for higher trading costs and for holding securities that have relatively less available information.

Relative Prices of Dual Class Shares

Abstract: Empirical studies of dual class shares indicate that superior voting shares (SVS) sell at a premium relative to their counterpart restricted shares (RVS). This paper uses Toronto Stock Exchange data to show that SVS price premium over RVS reflects the expected takeover premium paid to shareholders outside the control block. Thus, marginal shareholders pay a higher SVS price in anticipation of receiving a differential takeover bid as suggested by the extra merger hypothesis. Further analysis indicates that voting power increases the price premium while ownership, size, and the higher trading liquidity of RVS are inversely related to the premium.

Investment under Uncertainty: The Case of Replacement Investment Decisions

Abstract: We analyze the determinants of replacement investment decisions in a contingent claims model with maintenance and operation cost uncertainty. We find that the optimal time between replacements is increasing in the volatility of cost, the purchase price of a new asset, and the corporate tax rate; and is decreasing in the systematic risk of cost, the salvage value of the asset, and the investment tax credit. The optimal time between replacements can either increase or decrease with an increase in the depreciation rate. Extensions of the model to examine the effects of technological and tax policy uncertainty on replacement investment decisions give intuitive, but striking results. Uncertainty about the arrival of a technological innovation that would decrease maintenance and operation cost results in a significant decrease in replacement investment. Uncertainty in a tax law change that would encourage investment decreases current investment; and uncertainty in a tax law change that would discourage investment increases current investment.

The Response of Stock Prices to Permanent and Temporary Shocks to Dividends

Abstract: This paper investigates the response of stock prices to dividend shocks in a bivariate model of stock prices and price-dividend spreads. Dividend process is modeled as the sum of a permanent component and a temporary component. By using the stock price valuation (present value) model, the two components are related to stock prices. The stock market responds significantly not only to permanent shocks to dividends, but also to temporary shocks to dividends. Furthermore, initial responses of stock prices to the temporary shocks are as strong as those to the permanent shocks. As a result, substantial variation in stock prices is due to the temporary shocks. This finding provides empirical support for the imperfect information hypothesis that emphasizes the failure of investors to clearly dis? tinguish between the two components of dividends, and also suggests that the observed mean-reverting behavior of stock returns should be explained by incorporating a significant temporary component into stock prices. The price-dividend spreads are primarily accounted for by the temporary shocks to dividends, and respond strongly to them, suggesting that, in response to the temporary shocks to dividends, stock prices respond excessively relative to dividends.

Daily and Intradaily Tests of European Put-Call Parity

Abstract: Existing empirical studies of the put-call parity condition report frequent, substantial violations. An important problem in interpreting these results is that these studies all investigate American options. While some of these studies attempt to reduce the effects of possible early exercise on their tests, they cannot fully account for the effect of early exercise. Therefore, it is not possible to conclude from these studies whether, or to what extent, observed put-call parity violations are due to market inefficiency or due to the value of early exercise. We avoid the early exercise problem by testing put-call parity using European options. We find violations that are much less frequent and smaller than the studies using American options. Moreover, these violations reflect premia for liquidity (immediacy) risk.

Stock Market Reaction to Capital Investment Decisions: Evidence from Business Relocations

Abstract: We investigate the stock market reaction to 447 announcements of business relocation decisions in the 1978-1990 period. We find that the stock market reaction to such decisions is tied to the motive for the relocation and the implied prospects for the firm, with the type of facility being relocated playing an insignificant role. Our finding reconciles several results in the literature concemmg the stock market reaction to announcements of capital investment decisions.

A Market Microstructure Explanation for Predictable Variations in Stock Returns following Large Price Changes

Abstract: Prior empirical evidence of predictable variations in stock returns following large price changes is found to be, at least in part, driven by the sample selection bias arising from the systematic movement of closing transaction prices within the bid-ask spread. By using the average of the bid-ask prices in the sample selection process, the price reversal on the day following the events (day +1) disappears. For a short-run period after day +1, however, systematic abnormal return patterns are still observed. These short-run price reversals persist even after controlling for the influence of systematic trading patterns around the events. However, investigation of contrarian investment profits from these short-run price reversals shows that the average abnormal returns are not large enough to cover the transaction price movement between the bid and ask prices.

Open-Market Share Repurchase Programs and Bid-Ask Spreads on the NYSE: Implications for Corporate Payout Policy

Abstract: This study analyzes bid-ask spreads surrounding announcements of open-market share repurchase programs for a sample of 248 announcements of repurchase programs by NYSE firms over the period January 1984 through June 1988. The sample includes 158 announcements of new programs and 90 announcements regarding continuations of already existing programs. Contrary to the theory that spreads increase surrounding the announcement of open-market share repurchase programs, with both univariate and multivariate tests that control for changes in volume, changes in stock price volatility, and changes in the level of stock price, we find no evidence of an increase in spreads surrounding announcements of open-market share repurchase programs.

Valuation of Path-Dependent Contingent Claims with Multiple Exercise Decisions over Time: The Case of Take-or-Pay

Abstract: Hull and White (1993) introduced a method to extend lattice-based contingent claim val? uation techniques to problems with path-dependent payoffs. This paper builds upon their method in the process of valuing two types of commodity purchase contracts that ex? hibit a form of timing flexibility not previously analyzed in the literature. The techniques demonstrated take advantage of characteristics of claims that simplify incorporation of path dependencies. Possible uses for the methods demonstrated include the valuation of: port? folios of mortgages, capital projects where intensity of use affects productivity ofthe asset, and capital projects with storage characteristics.

The Effects of Reverse Splits on the Liquidity of the Stock

Abstract: This study investigates the liquidity effects of reverse stock splits using bid-ask spread, trading volume, and the number of nontrading days as proxies for the liquidity of the stock. Results indicate a decrease in bid-ask spread and an increase in trading volume after reverse splits. More importantly, the number of nontrading days significantly declines following reverse splits. For the control group, however, no such changes are observed. These results suggest that reverse splits enhance the liquidity of the stock.

Under-Diversification and Retention Commitments in IPOs

Abstract: This study is an extension of Leland and Pyle's (1977) signaling model. It introduces, in addition to the retained ownership, the length of the holding period to which the owner commits in the prospectus as a signal of firm value. The length of the holding period is found to be a signaling mechanism that complements ownership retention. Depending on the information structure of the firm, the entrepreneur may prefer to commit to a holding period longer than the minimum required by securities regulations.

Transitory Price Changes and Price-Limit Rules: Evidence from the Tokyo Stock Exchange

Abstract: We compare the volatility of 24-hour returns computed from the opening and closing prices of a diverse sample of Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) stocks. We find that volatility at the open is greater than volatility at the close only for the most actively traded TSE stocks. Daytime and overnight return covariances suggest that the volatility patterns are explained by the effect of implicit bid-ask spreads at the open and partial price adjustment at the close, both of which are related to the intensity of trading. Our results challenge the view that open-to-open returns are more volatile than close-to-close returns for stocks, in general, and are consistent with the hypothesis that TSE price limit rules have a significant impact on the dynamics of security prices.

Can Takeover Losses Explain Spin-Off Gains?

Abstract: This paper evaluates the conjecture that excess stock returns that have been documented around the announcement of corporate spin-offs represent, at least in part, the re-creation of value destroyed at the time of an earlier acquisition. We evaluate this question with a sample of spin-offs that originated as earlier acquisitions. At the time of the original acquisition, on average, announcement period returns to the bidder and the combined bidder and target firm are negative and significant. Additionally, announcement period returns at the time of the spin-off are negatively and significantly correlated with acquisition announcement period returns.

Single Factor Heath-Jarrow-Morton Term Structure Models Based on Markov Spot Interest Rate Dynamics

Abstract: This paper considers the class of Heath-Jarrow-Morton term structure models where the spot interest rate is Markov and the term structure at time t is a function of time, maturity, and the spot interest rate at time t. A representation for this class of models is derived and I show that the functional forms of the forward rate volatility structure and the initial forward rate curve cannot be arbitrarily chosen. I provide necessary and sufficient conditions indicating which combinations of these functional forms are allowable. I also derive a partial differential equation representation of the term structure dynamics that does not require explicit modeling of both the market price of risk and the drift term for the spot interest rate process. Using the analysis presented in this paper, a class of intertemporal term structure models is derived.

Signaling with Convertible Debt

Abstract: We test whether the conversion price (ratio) is viewed by the stock market as a credible signal of the firm's future earnings prospects (Kim (1990)) and, subsequently, whether convertible debt serves as backdoor equity financing (Stein (1992)). Examining the conversion price in relation to current stock prices and a priori growth expectations produces an average expected time of less than 1.5 years for convertible bonds to be at-the-money. Thus, as Stein suggests, convertibles appear to be a method of drawing equity into a firm's capital structure. We also find that the size of the firm's announcement period abnormal returns is positively related to the expected time for the convertible to become at-the-money. Given these relationships, we conclude that convertible debt issue announcements, on average, send an equity-like signal to the market.

An Analysis of the Wealth Effects of Japanese Offshore Dollar-Denominated Convertible and Warrant Bond Issues

Abstract: Offshore dollar-denominated equity-linked issues were a more important source of funds for Japanese companies during the 1980s than domestic equity and straight debt issues combined. Using a sample of Japanese equity-linked offshore issues from 1977 to 1989, we find that the announcement of these issues is accompanied by a significant positive abnormal return. This contrasts with evidence that U.S. equity-linked issues have a significant negative stock price reaction. We provide an explanation for the difference in stock price reactions between U.S. and Japanese issues that is based on the greater influence on managers' security issue decisions of long-term investors and banks in Japan than in the U.S.

Measuring True Stock Index Value in the Presence of Infrequent Trading

Abstract: Based on the Beveridge-Nelson (1981) decomposition of an ARIMA process, I present a measure of true stock index value that is not directly observable due to infrequent trading of stocks. The technique is illustrated with daily observations of the Russell 2000 index. This new measure might well prove useful in studies of lead-lag relationships between index derivatives and spot market and futures basis measurements.

Dividend Payout and the Valuation Effects of Bond Announcements

Abstract: Recent theoretical models suggest debt and dividends can serve as substitute free cash flow control or signaling devices. I examine share price responses to announcements of straight debt issues and test whether there are systematic differences between low and high dividend payout firms. Share price response is significantly positive for low growth-low dividend payout firms, and is negatively related to cross-sectional dividend payout. The results support arguments that debt and dividends are substitutes. The results also support arguments that debt provides free cash flow or signaling benefits, but suggest the benefits are significant only for firms with low levels of substitutes. I also document that low growth-low dividend payout firms enter capital markets less frequently, but find no relation between share price response and this frequency.

The Informative Role of the Value Line Investment Survey: Evidence from Stock Highlights

Abstract: I examine abnormal stock returns associated with “stock highlights” published by the Value Line Investment Survey. At the time of their publication, stock highlights elicit strong positive abnormal returns. They also have positive abnormal returns at the time of the earnings announcement preceding stock highlight publications. Post-earnings announcement drift is present, but is much too small to explain abnormal returns at the time of the publication of stock highlights. Thus, Value Line stock highlights provide useful information to investors. This information is rapidly reflected in stock prices, consistent with market efficiency.

Price Continuity Rules and Insider Trading

Abstract: Restrictions on transaction price changes are a feature of many security markets. This paper analyzes the impact of such price continuity rules on price dynamics and examines possible rationales for their existence. Contrary to popular belief, continuity rules need not reduce price efficiency, although they do result in a redistribution of profits among traders and dealers.- Indeed, continuity rules may enhance price efficiency because traders have greater incentives to gather costly information. We provide a new rationale for continuity rules besides the stated objective of stabilizing prices. In particular, we show that continuity requirements act to restrict dealers' expected profits from trading with liquidity traders. The results provide insights into the design of an "optimal" continuity rule.

A Bias in Closing Prices: The Case of the When-Issued Pricing Anomaly

Abstract: Financial studies examining stock price behavior have principally relied on end-of-day data. This paper illustrates a bias in closing prices by reexamining the when-issue pricing anomaly with intraday data. With intraday data, major portions of the pricing anomaly can be explained by: a nonsynchronous matching of trades; a difference in the settlement procedures (labeled time value of money in Choi and Strong (1983)); a mismatching of market purchases with market sales (first proposed by Lamoureux and Wansley (1989)); and a higher frequency of market purchases relative to market sales. In addition, the small remaining portion of the anomaly cannot be arbitraged. The remaining premium is attributed to a lower level of limit order competition and an order imbalance in the when-issued shares.

Efficient Selection of Insured Currency Positions: Protective Puts vs. Fiduciary Calls

Abstract: We examine the empirical results from implementation of portfolio insurance strategies employing currency spot and futures options. Hypotheses are generated from Ogden and Tucker's (1988) generalizations concerning the relative values of American spot currency options and currency futures options. We find that protective puts using futures options are generally dominated by both protective puts that use options on spot currencies and by fiduciary calls on futures contracts. This suggests that the prices of puts on foreign currency futures contracts are too high, relative to foreign currency futures calls and to puts on spot currencies.