Showing papers in "Journal of Multi-criteria Decision Analysis in 2001"
TL;DR: An overview of the type and complexity of decision problems supported and the MCA approach selected to analyse these problems is provided, and the role of MCA in the decision process is analysed.
Abstract: Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) is a popular tool in Dutch environmental impact assessment (EIA). This paper provides an overview of the type and complexity of decision problems supported, and the MCA approach selected to analyse these problems. Furthermore, the role of MCA in the decision process is analysed, and a special case where the MCA results were challenged in court is presented. The paper concludes with some lessons learned from the use of MCA in the Netherlands. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
242 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present two new categories of ranking irregularities which defy common intuition, i.e., ranking irregularities occur when one decomposes a decision problem into a set of smaller problems each defined on two alternatives and the same criteria as the original problem.
Abstract: Many researchers have long observed some cases in which certain ranking irregularities can occur when the original analytic hierarchy process (AHP), or some of its variants, are used. This paper presents two new categories of ranking irregularities which defy common intuition. These ranking irregularities occur when one decomposes a decision problem into a set of smaller problems each defined on two alternatives and the same criteria as the original problem. These irregularities are possible when the original AHP, or some of its additive variants, are used. Computational experiments on random test problems and an examination of some real-life case studies suggest that these ranking irregularities are dramatically likely to occur. This paper also proves that these ranking irregularities are not possible when a multiplicative variant of the AHP is used. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
134 citations
TL;DR: This paper summarizes the experiences gained in applying a MAVT and two outranking methods in connection with a participatory natural resource planning process in Finland and concludes that the use of more than just one MCDM method in a single planning process is seen usually recommendable.
Abstract: The forests in Finland have been under intensive planning for decades. Currently, mathematical programming is widely used in planning of wood production. Today's multi-functional forestry, however, calls for more flexible decision support methods. MCDM tools have been used in responding to fresh planning challenges. For example, the Finnish Forest and Park Service, entrusted with the care of the vast majority of state-owned natural resources in Finland, endeavours to produce large-scale natural resource plans satisfying the needs of both economic, social, and ecological sustainability. Participatory approach is applied in the process.
Several forestry applications of MCDM methods, particularly those making use of the AHP or the HIPRE program, have been presented. Also, the outranking methods ELECTRE and PROMETHEE have been tested. Due to the nature of forestry applications, statistical techniques for analysing uncertainties in pairwise comparisons and for utilizing interval judgement data have been developed to improve the usability of the AHP. Recently, a hybrid method called A'WOT, making use of the AHP and SWOT, was also introduced into strategic forest planning.
This paper summarizes the experiences gained in applying a MAVT and two outranking methods in connection with a participatory natural resource planning process in Finland. In addition, some results of the method development work related to application needs are briefly presented. The details of the planning cases reviewed here have previously been presented in forestry journals. The purpose of this paper is not only to show how MCDM methods have been applied in forestry, but also to discuss the usability and usefulness of MCDM methods from the viewpoint of supporting forestry decision making—and how they might further be improved. Also, some perspectives for the future development work of MCDM applications in the field of natural resource management are focused on. As a conclusion, the use of more than just one MCDM method in a single planning process is seen usually recommendable. In addition, developing hybrid MCDM methods is regarded as a potential direction for future research. Also, closer co-operation between method developers and appliers is called for to produce more useful applications. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
128 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a workshop was held in which climate change experts and policy makers evaluated the usefulness of MCDM for integrated assessments (IAs) and concluded that MCDMs are potentially useful for understanding tradeoffs and evaluating risks associated with climate policy alternatives.
Abstract: Those who conduct integrated assessments (IAs) are aware of the need to explicitly consider multiple criteria and uncertainties when evaluating policies for preventing global warming. MCDM methods are potentially useful for understanding tradeoffs and evaluating risks associated with climate policy alternatives. A difficulty facing potential MCDM users is the wide range of different techniques that have been proposed, each with distinct advantages. Methods differ in terms of validity, ease of use, and appropriateness to the problem. Alternative methods also can yield strikingly different rankings of alternatives. A workshop was held in which climate change experts and policy makers evaluated the usefulness of MCDM for IA. Participants applied several methods in the context of a hypothetical greenhouse gas policy decision. Methods compared include value and utility functions, goal programming, ELECTRE, fuzzy sets, stochastic dominance, min max regret, and several weight selection methods. Ranges, rather than point estimates, were provided for some questions to incorporate imprecision regarding weights. Additionally, several visualization methods for both deterministic and uncertain cases were used and evaluated. Analysis of method results and participant feedback through questionnaires and discussion provide the basis for conclusions regarding the use of MCDM methods for climate change policy and IA analyses. Hypotheses are examined concerning predictive and convergent validity of methods, existence of splitting bias among experts, perceived ability of methods to aid decision-making, and whether expressing imprecision can change ranking results. Because participants gained from viewing a problem from several perspectives and results from different methods often significantly differed, it appears worthwhile to apply several MCDM methods to increase user confidence and insight. The participants themselves recommended such multimethod approaches for policymaking. Yet they preferred the freedom of unaided decision-making most of all, challenging the MCDM community to create transparent methods that permit maximum user control. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
102 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a case study on the definition of an investment policy in new inter-municipal road-links in the Lisbon Metropolitan Region (LMR) for the period 1999-2004 is presented.
Abstract: Public resource allocation often requires the management of conflicting objectives of multiple policy actors at different spatial levels. An example is the case study on which this paper is based: the definition of an investment policy in new inter-municipal road-links in the Lisbon Metropolitan Region (LMR) for the period 1999–2004. The key regional (inter-municipal) objective is to choose the sub-set of proposed road projects that maximizes the quality of LMR's road network for a fixed available budget. Conflict arises, however, if environmental, social and economic impacts at the level of the 18 municipalities involved are significantly unbalanced. This paper describes how multi-criteria decision analysis' concepts, techniques and software tools were used to analyse spatial conflicts in the LMR case. The study provided the decision-making body formed by all the municipal mayors with useful information about how much it is necessary to negotiate to reach an agreement on a specific investment policy option. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
89 citations
TL;DR: This approach endeavours to bridge the gap between prescriptive and descriptive decision problem structuring, and synthesizes a number of models and approaches cited in the decision-making literature in general and the multi-criteria literature in particular.
Abstract: This paper develops a conceptualization of decision problem structuring which synthesizes a number of models and approaches cited in the decision-making literature in general and the multi-criteria literature in particular. The approach advocates a dynamic interaction between criteria and alternatives as a decision-maker understands his preferences and expands the set of alternatives. This approach endeavours to bridge the gap between prescriptive and descriptive decision problem structuring. It is prescriptive in its orientation, recommending an approach based on earlier prescriptive work. However, the approach is also validated empirically, based on the descriptive decision-making literature and reported case studies of actual decision-making. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
89 citations
TL;DR: An interactive algorithm of the model for solving multi-objective decision-making problems and reflecting the interactive natures among the decision makers is developed.
Abstract: Furthering a prior research on two-person bi-level multi-objective decision-making problems of the leader-follower Stackelberg game, we present an extended model of bi-level multi-objective decision-making with multiple interconnected decision makers at the lower level. In the model, the upper level decision maker acts as a leader and the lower level decision makers behave as the followers, and inter-connections and interactions exist among these followers in decision-making scenarios. Following the rules of leader-follower Stackelberg game, we develop an interactive algorithm of the model for solving multi-objective decision-making problems and reflecting the interactive natures among the decision makers. Finally, the authors exemplify the model and algorithm, and draw a conclusion on points of contributions and the significance of this study in decision-making and support. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
74 citations
44 citations
39 citations
TL;DR: It is argued that as a prerequisite to a normative foundation, the criteria have to reflect not only the interests but possibly all values stemming from normative arguments of the decision-maker(s), which might differ substantially from each other.
Abstract: The aim of decision analysis is normative. Consequently, at least in public spheres, one has to reflect on its normative foundation. Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) uses aggregated evaluations on several criteria to recommend a decision. The claim for the adequacy of the recommended solution is usually based on the assumption that the interests of the decision-maker(s) are adequately assessed by the MC model (see, for example, Munda G. 1996. Cost–benefit analysis in integrated environmental assessment: some methodological issues. Ecological Economics19: 157–168). I argue that as a prerequisite to a normative foundation, the criteria have to reflect not only the interests but possibly all values stemming from normative arguments of the decision-maker(s). These arguments might differ substantially from each other. This is especially true for environmental decisions. The integration of values will result in changes of the MCA understanding, criteria building, and aggregation method, and will not be possible without analytical capacities of the decision analyst in ethics. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
39 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a multi-criteria decision model for the material handling device (MHD) selection problem in cellular manufacturing systems is presented, which makes it possible to select a particular MHD for each cell in an integrated way, with different constraints being taken into consideration.
Abstract: This paper presents a new multi-criteria decision model for the material handling device (MHD) selection problem in cellular manufacturing systems. Given a set of manufacturing cells based on several automatic work-centres, the technique makes it possible to select a particular MHD for each cell in an integrated way, with different constraints being taken into consideration. The approach is based on two different multi-attribute analyses executed with analytic hierarchy process (AHP) methodology, and a final integer linear programming including important limitations faced by the designer when making MHD investment decisions. An example using real data is provided to illustrate this methodology. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue for the use of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) as a tool in environmental policy analysis, and propose criteria for evaluation of legitimacy and quality.
Abstract: This paper argues for multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) as a tool in environmental policy analysis. From an ethical point of view, neither rule-based methods, nor benefit–cost analyses (BCA) are sufficient. Multi-criteria decision analysts need, however, to be concerned about the legitimacy and quality of their applications. Neuro-physiological evidence indicates that a necessary, but not sufficient, criterion for quality is that the decision-makers experience emotions in the valuation process. Without emotions, and in contrast to popular belief, its valuation part is liable to be out of proportion with the range of values held by reasonable selections of the society. This paper proposes criteria for evaluation of legitimacy and quality, reviews five applications in Norway of MCDA for environmental policy, but finds that there is no clear relationship between the legitimacy and quality of the studies and their significance for decision-makers. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
TL;DR: Taguchi loss functions, a procedure commonly used in quality control, is proposed as a tool that can be used by industrial real estate professionals to more efficiently determine the property that most closely matches the buyer's needs.
Abstract: The marketing of industrial real estate is a resource-consuming endeavour for all parties involved consisting of many objectives that, in many cases, may be in conflict with one another. One method of minimizing resource requirements, especially time, while increasing the probability of a successful match is to select properties for presentation that maximizes buyer utility. Zionts (1992) indicated one area for future research in multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) is in the development of ‘Eclectic Approaches’ using old ideas in a new way to help develop MCDM approaches. In this paper Taguchi loss functions, a procedure commonly used in quality control, is proposed as a tool that can be used by industrial real estate professionals to more efficiently determine the property that most closely matches the buyer's needs. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors combine the robustness approach using the minmax regret criterion together with Pareto-optimality for the multi-criteria squared Euclidean minisum location problem.
Abstract: In this paper, a new trend is introduced into the field of multi-criteria location problems. We combine the robustness approach using the minmax regret criterion together with Pareto-optimality. We consider the multi-criteria squared Euclidean minisum location problem which consists of simultaneously minimizing a number of weighted sumdistance functions and the set of Pareto-optimal locations as its solution concept. The Pareto-optimal solutions for the set of robust locations with respect to the original weighted sum-distance functions is completely characterized. These Pareto-optimal solutions have both the properties of stability and non-domination which are required in robust and multi-criteria programming. Copyright # 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
TL;DR: The use of multivariate statistical analysis techniques to aid in conflict analysis in a multi-actor group is demonstrated and the resulting graphical output, called the conflict diagram, is interpreted in terms of relationships between actors, profiles of alternatives under consideration, and the interactions between actors and alternatives in Terms of the conflict and its possible resolutions.
Abstract: In this paper, the use of multivariate statistical analysis techniques to aid in conflict analysis in a multi-actor group is demonstrated. In particular, the covariance biplot technique is focused on and the resulting graphical output, called the conflict diagram, is interpreted in terms of relationships between actors, profiles of alternatives under consideration, and the interactions between actors and alternatives in terms of the conflict and its possible resolutions (consensus, coalition, etc.). The conflict analysis is divided into two distinct phases. The descriptive phase is used to represent the conflict. The prescriptive phase is used in two ways: (i) to visualize the effects of changes in parameters (‘conflict resolution aid’), hopefully bringing the actors closer together, and (ii) as a tool to enhance the creative search for new alternatives (‘alternative generation’). The conflict analysis process is illustrated by examining ex post a practical case study in water resource management. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
TL;DR: In this article, a procedure to approximate the non-dominated set for general continuous bi-criteria programs is proposed, which is composed of quadratic curves, each of which is developed locally in a neighbourhood of a non-dominant point of interest and based on primal-dual relationships associated with the weighted Tchebycheff scalarization of the original problem.
Abstract: A procedure to approximate the non-dominated set for general (continuous) bi-criteria programs is proposed. The piecewise approximation is composed of quadratic curves, each of which is developed locally in a neighbourhood of a non-dominated point of interest and based on primal–dual relationships associated with the weighted Tchebycheff scalarization of the original problem. The approximating quadratic functions, in which decision maker's preferences are represented, give a closed-form description of the non-dominated set. A numerical example is included. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
TL;DR: A model and a decision support tool for the regulation of a lake–river system using both goal sets and goal points for the water level over the year is described, which involves heavy computation, but can be successfully done with the spreadsheet program.
Abstract: This paper describes a model and a decision support tool for the regulation of a lake–river system using both goal sets and goal points for the water level over the year. The inflow forecast is updated periodically, which results in a series of dynamic rolling horizon goal programming problems. This involves heavy computation, and yet it can be successfully done with the spreadsheet program. The related decision support tool with a graphical user interface is called Interactive analysis of dynamic water regulation Strategies by Multi-criteria Optimization (ISMO). The Finnish Environment Institute (FEI) actively uses it in the generation of regulation policy alternatives when considered from the different perspectives of the stakeholders. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
TL;DR: An opportunistic approach aimed at reducing the number of optimization problems solved in the original framework and, on the other, an alternative framework based on distance analysis are investigated.
Abstract: The framework for sensitivity analysis in discrete multi-criteria decision analysis developed by Rios Insua and French allows simultaneous variation of all parameters and applies to many paradigms for decision analysis. However, its computational load may inhibit use, particularly in the context of a decision conference where results are required in near real time. In order to improve on the current algorithm and its implementation, we investigate, on the one hand, an opportunistic approach aimed at reducing the number of optimization problems solved in the original framework and, on the other, an alternative framework based on distance analysis. Computational results on linear and bilinear models are reported. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
TL;DR: An evaluation of the initiatives involved in a Strategic Plan for Valencia City (Spain) by applying a method to assist Multi-Criteria Decision-Making, which has been named PRES Multi-expert and can be generalized and applied to other complex cases.
Abstract: In this article we present an evaluation of the initiatives involved in a Strategic Plan for Valencia City (Spain) by applying a method to assist Multi-Criteria Decision-Making. The complexity of the case lies in the size of the problem, 47 alternatives and 10 criteria, as well as the need to reach a consensus on the final result. The method followed, which has been named PRES Multi-expert, can be generalized and applied to other complex cases. Thirteen experts have participated in the process, representing different political and social groups of the City, a group of analysts, formed by three lecturers from the Polytechnic University of Valencia, and a consultant, representing the City Hall of Valencia. The PRES algorithm was used to order the alternatives developed in 1992 by Gomez-Senent at this University. In this article we highlight the advantages of applying the Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Aid techniques and the importance of following a procedure to select the criteria, pondering on them and evaluating the alternatives. This procedure ensures that the parties interested in or affected by the decision take part in deciding what measures to adopt. The Multi-expert PRES method facilitates this participation and can be adapted to different types of problems. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
TL;DR: A model for the generation of daily work duties of airside crew (being bus drivers) at the Hong Kong International Airport is proposed, specifically designed to cater for the manpower planning issues to handle frequent changes of flight schedules by flexibility in work patterns of driver duties.
Abstract: An Erratum has been published for this article in Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis 10(5) 2001, 285.
This paper proposes a model for the generation of daily work duties of airside crew (being bus drivers) at the Hong Kong International Airport. The results can be adopted as a good crew schedule, in the sense that it is both feasible, satisfying requirements of various work conditions, and ‘optimal’ in minimizing overtime shifts. It is formulated as a goal programme, specifically designed to cater for the manpower planning issues to handle frequent changes of flight schedules by flexibility in work patterns of driver duties. Illustrative results from an actual case study are given. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
TL;DR: A more flexible, efficient, and robust optimization framework is presented that facilitates analysis of the trade-off in reducing select sources of uncertainty and prediction error of the glass property models is found to be more significant than variation in tank component mass fraction estimates.
Abstract: A new optimization framework is applied to management of radioactive wastes stored in belowground tanks at the US Government’s Hanford, WA, nuclear fuels facility. Current remediation plans call for vitrification of the tank contents. Blending of the wastes prior to glass formation reduces the amount of material required for processing, therefore decreasing disposal costs. Uncertainty in the tank contents, the error inherent in the glass property models governing vitrification, and computational difficulties, however, render determination of an optimal tankblend assignment a challenge to existing optimization techniques. Previous studies have focused exclusively on minimization of processing and disposal costs, ignoring such management-related dimensions as the value of reducing select sources of uncertainty. Moreover, the stochastic framework employed by these studies could not guarantee that the glass property requirements were met on more than a probabilistic basis. This paper presents a more flexible, efficient, and robust optimization framework that facilitates analysis of the trade-off in reducing select sources of uncertainty. Specifically, the prediction error of the glass property models is found to be more significant than variation in tank component mass fraction estimates, and constraint violations are traced to the need to meet a limited set of glass property characteristics.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigate the behavior of reference points using a Tchebycheff metric-based scalarizing function in multi-objective pure integer linear programming (MOILP) and further investigate properties of the reference points when additional limitations on the objective function values are introduced.
Abstract: Reference point approaches for multi-objective problems rely on the definition of an achievement scalarizing function that projects reference points onto the non-dominated solution set. In this paper, we investigate the behaviour of reference points using a Tchebycheff metric-based scalarizing function in multi-objective pure integer linear programming (MOILP). Since the non-dominated solutions are discrete in MOILP, there are multiple reference points that lead to the same solution, i.e. there are indifference sets on the reference point space. We investigate some properties of the reference points in MOILP and also the graphical representation of indifference sets for tri-objective problems. We further investigate properties of the reference points when additional limitations on the objective function values are introduced. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
TL;DR: In this paper, a process for the assessment of life cycle profit and the evaluation of the adequacy of the assessment process is developed, which aids the decision-maker in structuring and quantifying investment decision problems characterized by multiple criteria and uncertainty.
Abstract: Investments on capital goods are assessed with respect to the life cycle profit as well as the economic lifetime of the investment. The outcome of an investment with respect to these economic criteria is generally non-deterministic. An assessment of different investment options thus requires probabilistic modelling to explicitly account for the uncertainties. A process for the assessment of life cycle profit and the evaluation of the adequacy of the assessment is developed. The primary goal of the assessment process is to aid the decision-maker in structuring and quantifying investment decision problems characterized by multiple criteria and uncertainty. The adequacy of the assessment process can be evaluated by probabilistic criteria indicating the degree of uncertainty in the assessment. Bayesian inference is used to re-evaluate the initial assessment, as evidence of the system performance becomes available. Thus authentication of contracts of guarantee is supported. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate features of the described life cycle profit assessment process. Copyright # 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a practical implementation of multicriteria methodologies based on the UTA model by Jacquet-Lagreze and Siskos and Quasi-UTA model by Beuthe and Scannella, which are specified with a nonlinear, but piecewise linear, additive utility function.
Abstract: This paper presents a practical implementation of multicriteria methodologies based on the UTA model by Jacquet-Lagreze and Siskos and Quasi-UTA model by Beuthe and Scannella, which are specified with a non-linear, but piecewise linear, additive utility function. In contrast with the general UTA model, the Quasi-UTA specification structures the partial utilities as recursive exponential functions of only one curvature parameter. This allows for a reduction of the quantity of information necessary to build the utility function. The software MUSTARD implements different variants of these models. Firstly, it offers the basic deterministic UTA model of disaggregation, but also its first programmed stochastic version. In both cases, the software proceeds stepwise and interactively helping the decision maker to formulate the problem and state preferences between projects; in the stochastic case, the decision maker is even helped to build the criteria distributions. The Quasi-UTA specification can be introduced in this disaggregation model. Secondly, the software offers an aggregation model whereby the Quasi-UTA partial utility functions are built separately through specific questioning processes. The questions relating to deterministic criteria are of the direct rating type, while those of the stochastic criteria are either of the variable probability or the variable outcome type. The criteria weights can be assessed by the swing weight method or by a UTA-II side-program. As an example as well as a test of the Quasi-UTA aggregation approach, the paper presents its application to a real problem of selecting road investment projects in Belgium. Several experts and civil servants were interviewed, and their individual utility functions derived. The projects are ranked according to their rate of return, which is computed on the basis of the projects certain equivalent money value