Showing papers in "Landscape Ecology in 2004"

Effects of changing scale on landscape pattern analysis: scaling relations

Abstract: Landscape pattern is spatially correlated and scale-dependent. Thus, understanding landscape structure and functioning requires multiscale information, and scaling functions are the most precise and concise way of quantifying multiscale characteristics explicitly. The major objective of this study was to explore if there are any scaling relations for landscape pattern when it is measured over a range of scales (grain size and extent). The results showed that the responses of landscape metrics to changing scale fell into two categories when computed at the class level (i.e., for individual land cover types): simple scaling functions and unpredictable behavior. Similarly, three categories were found at the landscape level, with the third being staircase pattern, in a previous study when all land cover types were combined together. In general, scaling relations were more variable at the class level than at the landscape level, and more consistent and predictable with changing grain size than with changing extent at both levels. Considering that the landscapes under study were quite diverse in terms of both composition and configuration, these results seem robust. This study highlights the need for multiscale analysis in order to adequately characterize and monitor landscape heterogeneity, and provides insights into the scaling of landscape patterns.

Use and misuse of landscape indices

Abstract: Landscape ecology has generated much excitement in the past two decades. One reason was that it brought spatial analysis and modeling to the forefront of ecological research. However, high expectations for landscape analysis to improve our understanding and prediction of ecological processes have largely been unfulfilled. We identified three kinds of critical issues: conceptual flaws in landscape pattern analysis, inherent limitations of landscape indices, and improper use of pattern indices. For example, many landscape analyses treat quantitative description of spatial pattern as an end itself and fail to explore relationships between pattern and process. Landscape indices and map data are sometimes used without testing their ecological relevance, which may not only confound interpretation of results, but also lead to meaningless results. In addition, correlation analysis with indices is impeded by the lack of data because of difficulties in large-scale experimentation and by complicated behavior of indices because of their varying responses to changes in scale and spatial pattern. These problems represent significant challenges to landscape pattern analysis, especially in terms of relating pattern to process. In this perspective paper, we examine the underlying problems of these challenges and offer some solutions.

Driving forces of landscape change — current and new directions

Abstract: The concept of driving forces is gaining increasing attention in landscape-change research. We summarize the state of the art of this field and present new conceptual and methodological directions for the study of driving forces of landscape changes. These new directions address four major challenges faced by landscape-change studies, i.e., studying processes and not merely spatial patterns, extrapolating results in space and time, linking data of different qualities, and considering culture as a driver of landscape change. The proposed research directions include: studying landscape change across borders and transects, focusing on persistence as well as change, investigating rates of change, considering attractors of landscape change, targeting correlation and causality, and searching for precursors of landscape change. Based on established knowledge and the new approaches we outline a standard procedure to study driving forces of landscape change. We anticipate that our analytical and systematic approach increases the relevance of studies of landscape change for science as well as for the solution of real world problems.

Behavior of class-level landscape metrics across gradients of class aggregation and area

Abstract: Habitat loss and fragmentation processes strongly affect biodiversity conservation in landscapes undergoing anthropogenic land use changes. Many attempts have been made to use landscape structure metrics to quantify the independent and joint effects of these processes. Unfortunately, ecological interpretation of those metrics has been plagued by lack of thorough understanding of their theoretical behavior. We explored behavior of 50 metrics in neutral landscapes across a 21-step gradient in aggregation and a 19-step gradient in area using a full factorial design with 100 replicates of each of the 399 combinations of the two factors to assess how well metrics reflected changes in landscape structure. Metric values from real landscapes were used to determine the extent of neutral landscape space that is represented in real landscapes. We grouped metrics into three major behavioral classes: strongly related to focal class area (n=15), strongly related to aggregation (n=7), and jointly responding to area and aggregation (n=28). Metrics strongly related to class area exhibited a variety of distinct behaviors, and many of these metrics have unique interpretations that make each of them particularly useful in certain applications. Metrics strongly related to aggregation, independent of class area, are particularly useful in assessing effects of fragmentation. Moreover, metrics in this group exhibited a range of specific behaviors, highlighting subtle but different aspects of landscape aggregation even though we controlled only one aspect of aggregation. The non-linear behavior exhibited by many metrics renders interpretation difficult and use of linear analytical techniques inappropriate under many circumstances. Ultimately, comprehensive characterization of landscapes undergoing habitat loss and fragmentation will require using several metrics distributed across behavioral groups.

Interpatch movements in spatially structured populations: a literature review

Abstract: We used published data of individuals moving among habitat patches to answer questions pertaining to frequency of interpatch movements and subsequent effects on population dynamics. A review of 415 published articles produced data for 89 species-system combinations where movements were recorded in sufficient detail to include in our analysis. The percentage of individuals in a population that moved among habitat patches ranged from 0.00 to 93.00%, with a mean of 16.84%. Scaling this statistic by generation time yielded a mean movement rate of 15.45 ± 3.27% per generation. The relatively low movement rates suggest that subpopulations, except those of invertebrates, should not be highly integrated. Less than half of the empirical studies reported on the population effects of interpatch movement. Of these, thirty-three studies yielded population effects on 34 individual species in 45 species-systems. They reported movement having a positive effect 28 times, a negative effect twice and a neutral effect 14 times. Despite its importance, relatively few studies document rates of interpatch movement and far fewer determine population level consequences of these movements. This deficiency limits our ability to understand the dynamics of spatially structured populations and apply that knowledge to conservation efforts.

Analysing land-cover changes in relation to environmental variables in Hesse, Germany

Abstract: Land-use and land-cover changes affect ecological landscape functions and processes. Hence, landscape ecologists have a central interest in a comprehensive understanding of such changes. Our study focuses on the relationships between environmental conditions and agricultural land-cover changes. We present a method to (i) characterise the major spatial-temporal processes of land-cover changes, (ii) identify the correlations between environmental attributes and land-cover changes and (iii) derive potential environmental drivers of land-cover changes in a German marginal rural landscape. The method was applied to study land-cover dynamics from 1945 to 1998 in the districts of Erda, Steinbrucken and Eibelshausen, situated in the marginal rural landscape of the Lahn-Dill Highlands, Germany. We employed land-cover data gained by the interpretation of multi-temporal aerial photographs. Various environmental variables were introduced into the analyses. We identified physical landscape attributes (elevation, slope, aspect, available water capacity and soil texture) and structural landscape dimensions (patch size, patch shape and distance between patch and nearest settlement). With the aid of GIS, K-means partitioning and canonical correspondence analysis, we investigated land-cover trajectory types, land-cover transitions at individual time intervals and their relationships to these environmental variables. Our results show that, between 1945 and 1998, land-cover changes correlated with the physical attributes of the underlying landscape. On the other hand, the structural landscape dimensions correlated with land cover only in periods of minor land-cover changes (1972–98). Greater diversity of physical landscape attributes is correlated with greater land-cover dynamics. Besides the important influence of socio-economic factors, land-cover changes in the study areas took place within the relatively stable physical constraints of the underlying landscape.

Estimating the ‘critical’ distance at which adjacent land-use degrades wetland water and sediment quality

Abstract: Conversion of forested lands to agriculture or urban/residential areas has been associated with declines in stream and lake water quality. Less attention has been paid to the effects of adjacent land-uses on wetland sediment and water quality and, perhaps more importantly, the spatial scales at which these effects occur. Here we address these issues by examining variation in water and sediment nutrient levels in 73 southeastern Ontario, Canada, wetlands. We modeled the relationship between water and sediment nutrient concentrations and various measures of adjacent land-use such as forest cover and road density, measured over increasing distances from the wetland edge. We found that water nitrogen and phosphorous levels were negatively correlated with forest cover at 2250 meters from the wetland edge, while sediment phosphorous levels were negatively correlated with wetland size and forest cover at 4000 meters and positively correlated with the proportion of land within 4000 meters that is itself wetland. These results suggest that the effects of adjacent land-use on wetland sediment and water quality can extend over comparatively large distances. As such, effective wetland conservation will not be achieved merely through the creation of narrow buffer zones between wetlands and more intensive land-uses. Rather, sustaining high wetland water quality will require maintaining a heterogeneous regional landscape containing relatively large areas of natural forest and wetlands.

Using normative scenarios in landscape ecology

Abstract: The normative landscape scenario is one of many types of scenario methods that are used by landscape ecologists. We describe how normative landscape scenarios are different from other types and how these differences create special potential for engaging science to build landscape policy and for exploring scientific questions in realistic simulated landscapes. We describe criteria and a method for generating normative scenarios to realize this potential in both policy and landscape ecology research. Finally, we describe how the method and criteria apply to an interdisciplinary project that proposed alternative scenarios for federal agricultural policy and related futures for agricultural watersheds in Iowa, USA.

Projecting land use transitions at forest fringes in the Philippines at two spatial scales

Abstract: This paper presents two applications of a spatially explicit model of land use change at two spatial scales: a nation-wide application for the Philippines at relatively coarse resolution and an application with high spatial resolution for one island of the Philippines: Sibuyan island, Romblon province. The model is based on integrated analysis of socio-economic and biophysical factors that determine the allocation of land use change in combination with the simulation of the temporal dynamics (path-dependence and reversibility of changes), spatial policies and land requirements. Different scenarios of near-future developments in land use pattern are simulated illustrating the effects of implementing spatial policies. Results from the coarse scale model with national extent mainly serve to identify the overall pattern of land use change and ‘hot zones’ of deforestation. The detailed application provides more insight in the pattern of land use change and its consequences for ecological processes. The use of the results for environmental assessments is illustrated by calculating spatial indices to assess the impact of land use change on forest fragmentation. It is concluded that spatially explicit modeling of land use change yields important information for environmental management and land use planning. The applications illustrate that the scale of analysis is an important determinant of the model configuration, the interpretation of the results and the potential use by stakeholders. There is no single, optimal, scale for land use change assessments. Each scale enables different types of analysis and assessment: applications at multiple scales therefore give complementary information needed for environmental management.

Effects of remote sensor spatial resolution and data aggregation on selected fragmentation indices

Abstract: Analyzing the effect of scale on landscape pattern indices has been a key research topic in landscape ecology. The lack of comparability of fragmentation indices across spatial resolutions seriously limits their usefulness while multi-scale remotely sensed data are becoming increasingly available. In this paper, we examine the effect of spatial resolution on six common fragmentation indices that are being used within the Third Spanish National Forest Inventory. We analyse categorical data derived from simultaneously gathered Landsat-TM and IRS-WiFS satellite images, as well as TM patterns aggregated to coarser resolutions through majority rules. In general, majority rules tend to produce more fragmented patterns than actual sensor ones. It is suggested that sensor point spread function should be specifically considered to improve comparability among satellite images of varying pixel sizes. Power scaling-laws were found between spatial resolution and several fragmentation indices, with mean prediction errors under 10% for number of patches and mean patch size and under 5% for edge length. All metrics but patch cohesion indicate lower fragmentation at coarser spatial resolutions. In fact, an arbitrarily large value of patch cohesion can be obtained by resampling the pattern to smaller pixel sizes. An explanation and simple solution for correcting this undesired behaviour is provided. Landscape division and largest patch index were found to be the least sensitive indices to spatial resolution effects.

Spatial patterns of fire occurrence in Catalonia, NE, Spain

Abstract: In this paper, we analyse spatial patterns of fire occurrence in Catalonia (NE Spain) during 1975–98. Fire scar maps, discriminated by means of 30–60 m resolution remote sensing imagery, have been used as a source of fire occurrence. We employ several visual or analytical approaches to interpret fire occurrence in this region, such as those of Minnich and Chou (1997), Ricotta et al. (2001) or Krummel et al. (1987). Crucial spatial patterns such as fire size distribution, fire frequency distribution, spots and residual vegetation islands are documented. In addition, several geographical layers were overlaid with burned area maps in order to determine interactions between fire occurrence and environmental parameters such as altitude, slope, solar radiation, and burned land cover. Assuming that fire occurrence is well determined by such a posteriori empirical factors we detect areas most prone to fire in this region and aim to enhance the local forest management and conservation plans.

Local, landscape and regional factors structuring benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages in Swedish streams

Abstract: A total of 694 streams were sampled for benthic macroinvertebrates in the autumn of 1995 as part of the Swedish national stream survey. After removal of sites considered as impacted, data from 428 streams as well as a large number of environmental variables were used to determine the relative importance of local, landscape, and large scale factors in explaining the variability in species composition of benthic stream macroinvertebrates. The environmental variables were divided into seven explanatory variable groups: local physical, local chemical, catchment land use/cover, catchment bedrock geology, Quaternary geology in catchment, regional factors (such as ecoregion) and spatial position. Partial Canonical Correspondence Analysis was used to partition the total explained variance in the species data into these variable groups. The pure (or unique) effects of the seven variable groups accounted for 69.1%, and combinations of variable groups (interaction terms) the remaining 30.9% of the total explained variability. Local scale variables such as in-stream substratum, vegetation in and near the stream (riparian zone), and some chemical variables were most strongly associated with the among-site variability. Local physical (24.4%) and local chemical (20.4%) variables explained the largest part of the among-site variability of community assemblages. These results are of importance when planning conservation and management measurements, implementing large-scale biomonitoring programs, and predicting how human alterations will affect running water ecosystems.

Changes in carabid beetle assemblages along an urbanisation gradient in the city of Debrecen, Hungary

Abstract: Responses of carabid beetles (Coleoptera: Carabidae) to urbanisation were studied along an urban-suburban-rural gradient representing decreasing intensities of humandisturbance. Carabids were collected by pitfall trapping during their activity period in lowland oak forest patches in the city of Debrecen, Eastern Hungary. The average number of carabid species was significantly higher in the rural and urban areas compared to the suburban one. The high overall species richness in the urban area was due to the presence of species preferring open habitats. The species richness of forest specialist carabids significantly increased along the urban-rural gradient. The overall carabid abundance was significantly higher in the rural than the other two areas. The results did not support the hypothesis that overall diversity should decrease in response to habitat disturbance. They also contradicted the intermediate disturbance hypothesis: species richness was not the highest in the moderately disturbed suburban area. In the urban area, opportunistic species dominated. The average carabid body size was significantly larger in the rural and suburban areas than in the more disturbed urban area. Multivariate methods detected changes in species composition and abundance structure along the urban-rural gradient. Significant proportion of the variation in abundance and species richness was explained by the heterogeneity of environmental variables (ground temperature, surface temperature, humidity, cover of decaying wood material, herbs, canopy layer, and by the amount of prey).

Quantifying functional connectivity: Experimental evidence for patch-specific resistance in the Natterjack toad (Bufo calamita)

Abstract: Despite the importance assigned to inter-patch movements in fragmented systems, the structure of landscape between suitable habitat patches, the matrix, is often considered as to be of minor interest, or totally ignored. Consequently, models predicting metapopulation dynamics typically assume that dispersal and movement abilities are independent of the composition of the matrix. The predictions of such models should be invalided if that crucial assumption is unverified. In order to test the hypothesis of a patch-specific resistance, we led an experimental study to assess the matrix effects on the movement ability of juvenile Natterjack toads (Bufo calamita). The movement behaviour of first year toadlets, the dispersal stage in this species, was investigated in an arena experiment. Toadlet mobility was assessed in five landscape components that were mimicked in the lab: sandy soil, road, forest, agricultural field, and pasture. We analysed several movement components including move length, speed, efficiency and turning angle distribution. Our results showed that movement ability was strongly affected by the land cover, even if body size modulated the behavioural responses of toadlets. Performances were the best in the arenas mimicking sand and roads, and the worst in the forest arena, toadlet moves being three to five times less effective in the latter. The mobility was intermediate in the two other arenas. We propose here a new method to quantify functional connectivity, based on quantitative estimates of relative values for resistance of landscape components. This method offers a reliable alternative for resistance value estimates to subjective ‘expert advice’ or inference from genetic population structure.

Functional heterogeneity in resources within landscapes and herbivore population dynamics

Abstract: Large mammalian herbivores are notorious for their propensity towards population irruptions and crashes, yet many herbivore populations remain relatively stable. I explore how resource heterogeneity within landscapes dampens population instability, using a metaphysiological modelling approach considering patch state distributions. Resource heterogeneity is functionally stabilizing through spreading consumption away from preferred resources before these become critically depleted. Lower-quality resources act as a buffer against starvation during critical periods of the seasonal cycle. Enriching resource quality is destabilizing, even if patch diversity is maintained, because food quantity then becomes the limitation. The potential consequences of landscape fragmentation are explored using the Serengeti ecosystem, characterised by broadscale resource gradients, as a hypothetical example. Further insights provided by the model are illustrated with specific examples concerning the effects of patch scales and waterpoint distribution. A metaphysiological modelling approach enables the basic consequences of landscape heterogeneity to be distinguished from further effects that may arise from specific patch scales and configurations, without the distracting detail of spatially explicit models.

Characterizing historical and modern fire regimes in Michigan (USA): A landscape ecosystem approach

Abstract: We studied the relationships of landscape ecosystems to historical and contemporary fire regimes across 4.3 million hectares in northern lower Michigan USA. Changes in fire regimes were documented by comparing historical fire rotations in different landscape ecosystems to those occurring between 1985 and 2000. Previously published data and a synthesis of the literature were used to identify six forest-replacement fire regime categories with fire rotations ranging from very short 100 years to very long 1,000 years. We derived spatiallyexplicit estimates of the susceptibility of landscape ecosystems to fire disturbance using Landtype Association maps as initial units of investigation. Each Landtype Association polygon was assigned to a fire regime category based on associations of ecological factors known to influence fire regimes. Spatial statistics were used to interpolate fire points recorded by the General Land Office. Historical fire rotations were determined by calculating the area burned for each category of fire regime and dividing this area by fifteen years to estimate area burned per annum. Modern fire rotations were estimated using data on fire location and size obtained from federal and state agencies. Landtype Associations networked into fire regime categories exhibited differences in both historical and modern fire rotations. Historical rotations varied by 23-fold across all fire rotation categories, and modern forest fire rotations by 13-fold. Modern fire rotations were an order of magnitude longer than historical rotations. The magnitude of these changes has important implications for forest health and understanding of ecological processes in most of the fire rotation categories that we identified.

Potential colonization of newly available tree-species habitat under climate change: An analysis for five eastern US species

Abstract: We used a combination of two models, DISTRIB and SHIFT, to estimate potential migration of five tree species into suitable habitat due to climate change over the next 100 years. These species, currently confined to the eastern half of the United States and not extending into Canada, are Diospyros virginiana (persimmon), Liquidambar styraciflua (sweetgum), Oxydendrum arboreum (sourwood), Pinus taeda (loblolly pine), and Quercus falcata var. falcata (southern red oak). DISTRIB uses a statistical approach to assess potential suitable habitat under equilibrium of 2 × CO2. SHIFT uses a cellular automata approach to estimate migration and is driven primarily by the abundance of the species near the boundary, forest density inside and outside of the boundary, and distance between cells. For each cell outside the current boundary, SHIFT creates an estimate of the probability that each unoccupied target cell will become colonized over 100 years. By evaluating the probability of colonization within the potential ‘new’ suitable habitat, we can estimate the proportion of new habitat that might be colonized within a century. This proportion is low (<15%) for all five species, suggesting that there is a serious lag between the potential movement of suitable habitat and the potential for the species to migrate into the new habitat. However, humans could hasten the migration of certain species by physically moving the propagules, especially for certain rare species that are unable to move sufficiently through fragmented landscapes, or even more common species, e.g., beech, that have lost many of their animal dispersers.

Assessing alternative futures for agriculture in Iowa, U.S.A.

Abstract: The contributions of current agricultural practices to environmental degradation and the social problems facing agricultural regions are well known. However, landscape-scale alternatives to current trends have not been fully explored nor their potential impacts quantified. To address this research need, our interdisciplinary team designed three alternative future scenarios for two watersheds in Iowa, USA, and used spatially-explicit models to evaluate the potential consequences of changes in farmland management. This paper summarizes and integrates the results of this interdisciplinary research project into an assessment of the designed alternatives intended to improve our understanding of landscape ecology in agricultural ecosystems and to inform agricultural policy. Scenario futures were digitized into a Geographic Information System GIS, visualized with maps and simulated images, and evaluated for multiple endpoints to assess impacts of land use change on water quality, social and economic goals, and native flora and fauna. The Biodiversity scenario, targeting restoration of indigenous biodiversity, ranked higher than the current landscape for all endpoints biodiversity, water quality, farmer preference, and profitability. The Biodiversity scenario ranked higher than the Production scenario which focused on profitable agricultural production in all endpoints but profitability, for which the two scenarios scored similarly, and also ranked higher than the Water Quality scenario in all endpoints except water quality. The Water Quality scenario, which targeted improvement in water quality, ranked highest of all landscapes in potential water quality and higher than the current landscape and the Production scenario in all but profitability. Our results indicate that innovative agricultural practices targeting environmental improvements may be acceptable to farmers and could substantially reduce the environmental impacts of agriculture in this region.

Evidence of Hierarchical Patch Dynamics in an East African savanna

Abstract: The Hierarchical Patch Dynamics Paradigm provides a conceptual framework for linking pattern, process and scale in ecosystems, but there have been few attempts to test this theory because most ecological studies focus on only one spatial scale, or are limited in their temporal scope Here I use palaeoecological techniques (analysis of fossil pollen and stable carbon isotopes) to compare vegetation heterogeneity in an east African savanna at three spatial scales, over hundreds of years The data show that patterns of vegetation change are different at the three spatial scales of observation, and suggest that different ecological processes dominate tree abundance at micro, local and landscape scales Interactions between plants, disturbance (eg, by fire and herbivores), climate and soil type may influence tree density at differing spatial and temporal scales This hierarchical explanation of savanna vegetation dynamics could inform future biodiversity conservation and management in savannas

Forest conservation and land development in Puerto Rico

Abstract: In the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico, rapid land-use changes over the past century have included recent land-cover conversion to urban/built-up lands. Observations of this land development adjacent to reserves or replacing dense forest call into question how the changes relate to forests or reserved lands. Using existing maps, this study first summarizes island-wide land-cover change between 1977-78 and 1991-92. Then, using binomial logit modeling, it seeks evidence that simple forest cover attributes, reserve locations, or existing land cover influence land development locations. Finally, this study quantifies land development, reserve protection and forest cover by ecological zone. Results indicate that 1) pasture is more likely to undergo land development than shrubland plus forest with low canopy density, 2) forest condition and conservation status appear unimportant in that development locations neither distinguish between classes of forest canopy development nor relate to forest patch size or reserve proximity, and 3) most land development occurs in the least-protected ecological zones. Outside the boundaries of strictly protected forest and other reserves, accessibility, proximity to existing urban areas, and perhaps desirable natural settings, serve to increase land development. Over the coming century, opportunities to address ecological zone gaps in the island’s forest reserve system could be lost more rapidly in lowland ecological zones, which are relatively unprotected.

Variations in landscape patterns and vegetation cover between 1957 and 1994 in a semiarid Mediterranean ecosystem

Abstract: The aim of this study was to analyze the main processes that determine changes in landscape patterns and vegetation cover from 1957-1994 to develop a model for land cover dynamics Land cover and landscape patterns were assessed and compared using aerial photographs taken in 1957, 1985, and 1994 Over this period, tall grass steppe and arid garrigues increased by 6% and 4%, respectively, while crop fields decreased by 15% and tall arid brush remained the same Over the same period, tall grass steppes and arid garrigues became less fragmented Changes in land use were triggered by socioeconomic forces, which were constrained by the underlying structure of the physical landscape The best preserved vegetation (tall arid brushes) was concentrated at higher elevations, with a pronounced slope, not oriented towards the sea, and in volcanic substrate Communities tended to be better preserved further away from towns and at lower house densities Tall grass steppe was present on more gradual sea-oriented slope and in calcareous substrate, and increased at higher elevations, although not far from the town but away from high anthropogenic influence Previous studies have revealed that traditional land uses of this landscape, particularly grazing, favoured the transition from tall arid brush to tall grass steppe In this study, we analyzed to what extent the underlying structure of the physical landscape imposes limitations to the vulnerability to human activity of the main vegetation types According to the data on the probability of vegetation transition over the 37-year period, the shift from tall arid brush to tall grass steppe appeared to be favoured by gradual slopes Tall arid brush recovered from either arid garrigues or tall grass steppes at steeper slopes Thus, steep terrain had a favourable effect on the formation of brushwood and more gradual terrain favoured tall grass steppe The prevalent trends were confirmed by a projection of a transition matrix over 100 years

Sensitivity of landscape pattern indices to input data characteristics on real landscapes: implications for their use in natural disturbance emulation

Abstract: Resource management strategies have begun to adopt natural landscape disturbance emulation as a means of minimizing risk to ecosystem integrity. Detailed understanding of the disturbance regime and the associated spatial landscape patterns are required to provide a “natural” baseline for comparison with the results of emulation strategies. Landscape pattern indices provide a useful tool to quantify spatial pattern for developing these strategies and evaluating their success. Despite an abundance of indices and tools to calculate these, practical knowledge of interpretation is rare. Quantifying changes in landscape pattern indices and the meaning of these changes is confounded by index sensitivity to input data characteristics such as spatial extent, spatial resolution, and thematic resolution. Sensitivity has been examined for simulated landscapes but rarely using real data for large areas as real landscapes are more difficult to manipulate systematically than simulated data. While simulated data offer a control, they do not provide an accurate portrayal of reality for practical applications. Our goal was to test the sensitivity of a suite of landscape pattern indices useful for disturbance emulation strategy development and evaluation to spatial extent, spatial resolution, and thematic resolution using current land cover data for a case study of the managed forest of Ontario, Canada. We also examined how sensitivity varies spatially across the study area. We used Landsat TM-based land cover data (> 45.5 million ha), controlling spatial extent (2,500 to 2,560,000 ha), spatial resolution (1 to 16 ha), and thematic resolution (2 to 26 classes). For each index we tested a hypothesis of insensitivity to changes in each input data characteristic using a combination of ANOVA and regression and compared our results with previous studies. Of the 18 indices studied, significant (p< 0.01) effects were found for 17 indices with changes in spatial extent, 13 indices with changes in spatial resolution and 18 indices with changes in thematic resolution. A significant (p < 0.01) linear trend accounted for the majority of the variance for all of the significant relationships identified. Most of the mean index responses were consistent with those interpreted from previous studies of simulated and real landscapes; however, sensitivity varied greatly among indices and over space. We suggest that variation in sensitivity to input data characteristics among indices and over space must be explicitly incorporated in the design of future natural disturbance emulation efforts.

Landscape metrics with ecotones: pattern under uncertainty

Abstract: Landscape metrics are in widespread use, but previous research has highlighted problems over scale and error in the reliability of the metric values. This paper explores the variation of metric values when it is hard to distinguish exactly where one land cover type changes into another; when the ecotone is not an abrupt transition, but has a spatial extent in its own right. The values of metrics are explored in a landscape classified, using satellite imagery and the fuzzy c-means classifier, into fuzzy sets so that every location has a degree of belonging to all classes. The result is that any ecotone can be characterised by a variety of metric values depending on the degree to which a location is in any particular land cover class. The values recorded show some similarities, however, to those for an interpretation of the same landscape with abrupt changes, but the nature of that similarity varies unpredictably between metrics and classes. This analysis provides a limited degree of reassurance for those using metric analysis where the boundaries may have spatial extent, but much further work is required to establish an improved description of metrics under this condition.

Anthropogenic influences on potential fire spread in a pyrogenic ecosystem of Florida, USA

Abstract: Fire has historically been an important ecological factor maintaining southeastern U.S. vegetation. Humans have altered natural fire regimes by fragmenting fuels, introducing exotic species, and suppressing fires. Little is known about how these alterations specifically affect spatial fire extent and pattern. We applied historic (1920 and 1943) and current (1990) GIS fuels maps and the FARSITE fire spread model to quantify the differences between historic and current fire spread distributions. We held all fire modeling variables (wind speed and direction, cloud cover, precipitation, humidity, air temperature, fuel moistures, ignition source and location) constant with exception of the fuel models representing different time periods. Model simulations suggest that fires during the early 1900's burned freely across the landscape, while current fires are much smaller, restricted by anthropogenic influences. Fire extent declined linearly with patch density, and there was a quadratic relationship between fire extent and percent landscape covered by anthropogenic features. We found that as little as 10 percent anthropogenic landcover caused a 50 percent decline in fire extent. Most landscapes (conservation or non-conservation areas) are now influenced by anthropogenic features which disrupt spatial fire behavior disproportionately to their actual size. These results suggest that land managers using fire to restore or maintain natural ecosystem function in pyrogenic systems will have to compensate for anthropogenic influences in their burn planning.

Habitat factors related to wild rabbit conservation in an agricultural landscape

Abstract: Populations of European wild rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) have been decreasing since the 1950s. Changes in agricultural practices have been suggested as reasons for their decline in Mediterranean landscapes. We evaluated the environmental variables affecting rabbit distribution in a semiarid agricultural landscape of Northeastern Spain. Sampling was performed in 147 sites randomly distributed across Zaragoza province. At each site, data were recorded in five 100 m segments along a 1 km transect, following ecotones between crops and natural-vegetation areas. A rabbit abundance index was estimated from latrine count, pellet density and number of plots with pellets. In addition to environmental variables that have been shown to be related to rabbit abundance in other habitats, as climate, soil hardness and topography of the site, we measured landscape components related to agricultural use, such as structure of natural vegetation in remaining areas non-devoted to agricultural use and distances to different types of crops and to ecotone between crop and natural vegetation. Our results showed that rabbit abundance was positively correlated to yearly mean temperature, February and May mean rainfall, and negatively correlated to September and November mean rainfall, hardness of soil, and site topography. In relation to agricultural use, rabbit abundance was positively correlated to the scrub structure of natural-vegetation areas and negatively correlated to distance to edge between cultivated unirrigated cereal crops (wheat or barley) and yearly resting cereal crops. Rabbit abundance increased only when the edge between alternate cereal crops was less than 50 m from the ecotone between crops and natural vegetation.

Spatial analysis of roadside Acacia populations on a road network using the network K-function

Abstract: Spatial patterning of plant distributions has long been recognised as being important in understanding underlying ecological processes. Ripley’s K-function is a frequently used method for studying the spatial pattern of mapped point data in ecology. However, application of this method to point patterns on road networks is inappropriate, as the K-function assumes an infinite homogenous environment in calculating Euclidean distances. A new technique for analysing the distribution of points on a network has been developed, called the network K-function (for univariate analysis) and network cross K-function (for bivariate analysis). To investigate its applicability for ecological data-sets, this method was applied to point location data for roadside populations of three Acacia species in a fragmented agricultural landscape of south-eastern Australia. Kernel estimations of the observed density of spatial point patterns for each species showed strong spatial heterogeneity. Combined univariate and bivariate network K-function analyses confirmed significant clustering of populations at various scales, and spatial patterns of Acacia decora suggests that roadworks activities may have a stronger controlling influence than environmental determinants on population dynamics. The network K-function method will become a useful statistical tool for the analyses of ecological data along roads, field margins, streams and other networks.

A multi-scale assessment of human and environmental constraints on forest land cover change on the Oregon (USA) coast range

Abstract: Human modification of forest habitats is a major component of global environmental change. Even areas that remain predominantly forested may be changed considerably by human alteration of historical disturbance regimes. To better understand human influences on the abundance and pattern of forest habitats, we studied forest land cover change from 1936 to 1996 in a 25 000 km 2 landscape in the Oregon (USA) Coast Range. We integrated historical forest survey data and maps from 1936 with satellite imagery and GIS data from 1996 to quantify changes in major forest cover types. Change in the total area of closed-canopy forests was relatively minor, decreasing from 68% of the landscape in 1936 to 65% in 1996. In contrast, large-conifer forests decreased from 42% in 1936 to 17% in 1996, whereas small-conifer forests increased from 21% of the landscape in 1936 to 39% in 1996. Linear regression models were used to predict changes in the proportion of large conifer forest as a function of socioeconomic and environmental variables at scales of subbasins (mean size = 1964 km 2 , n = 13), watersheds (mean size = 302 km 2 , n = 83), and subwatersheds (mean size = 18 km 2 , n = 1325). The proportion of land in private ownership was the strongest predictor at all three spatial scales (partial R 2 values 0.57–0.76). The amounts of variation explained by other independent variables were comparatively minor. Results corroborate the hypothesis that differing management regimes on private and public ownerships have led to different pathways of landscape change. Furthermore, these distinctive trajectories are consistent over a broad domain of spatial scales.

Using traffic flow theory to model traffic mortality in mammals

Abstract: Traffic has a considerable effect on population and community dynamics through the disruption and fragmentation of habitat and traffic mortality. This paper deals with a systematic way to acquire knowledge about the probabilities of successful road crossing by mammals and what characteristics affect this traversability. We derive a model from traffic flow theory to estimate traffic mortality in mammals related to relevant road, traffic and species characteristics. The probability of successful road crossing is determined by the pavement width of the road, traffic volume, traversing speed of the mammals and their body length. We include the traversability model in a simple two-patch population model to explore the effects of these road, traffic and species characteristics on population dynamics. Analysis of the models show that, for our parameter ranges, traffic volume and traversing speed have the largest effect on traffic mortality. The population size is especially negatively affected when roads have to be crossed during the daily movements. These predictions could be useful to determine the expected effectiveness of mitigating measures relative to the current situation. Mitigating measures might alter the road and traffic characteristics. The effects of these changes on traffic mortality and population dynamics could be analysed by calculating the number of traffic victims before and after the mitigating measures.

Effects of area and isolation of woodland patches on herbaceous plant species richness across Great Britain

Abstract: Richness of Ancient Woodland Indicator plant species was analysed in 308 woodland patches that were surveyed during the Countryside Survey of Great Britain carried out in 1998. The Countryside Survey recorded vegetation plots and landscape structure in 569 stratified 1 km sample squares and developed a remotely-sensed land cover map of the UK. Using these datasets, we tested the hypothesis that Ancient Woodland Indicator species richness in woodland fragments was limited by patch area, shape and spatial isolation and that woodland patches located in the lowland region of Great Britain would respond differently than those in the upland region. The variation in Ancient Woodland Indicator species richness in the British lowlands (n = 218) was mainly explained by patch area and two measures of connectivity, the length of hedgerows and lines of trees in the 1 km square and the area of woodland within 500 m of the vegetation plot. By contrast, variation in Ancient Woodland Indicator species richness in the British uplands (n = 90) was related to Ellenberg scores of the vegetation communities sampled – a surrogate for habitat quality – and no significant effect of spatial structure was detected. It therefore appears that the degree of fragmentation of woodland in the British lowlands limits the distribution of Ancient Woodland Indicator species, while in the uplands, failed colonisation is a matter of habitat quality rather than a result of landscape structure.

Physical influences of landscape on a large-extent ecological disturbance: the northeastern North American ice storm of 1998

Abstract: The 1998 ice storm was a large-extent ecological disturbance that severely affected the eastern Adirondack forests of northern New York. Ice damage produced widespread breakage of limbs and trunks in susceptible trees. Although ice storms are common within northeastern North American forests, the magnitude and extent of the 1998 storm far exceeded damage caused by typical ice storms in the recent past. While plot and stand-scale ecological impacts of ice storms have received attention insofar as tree species vulnerability, stand age susceptibility, and microhabitat alterations, larger-extent damage patterns have not been previously evaluated. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was employed to assess forest vigor and canopy density in atmospherically corrected Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite imagery of the Adirondacks. Digital change analysis of the baseline forest condition (1990 NDVI data), and the condition encountered in a post-storm image (1998 NDVI data) was conducted. Forest damage was separated from natural variations in canopy reflectance by employing a generalized linear model that incorporated in situ measurements. A robust empirical variogram analysis revealed that locations of tree damage were significantly correlated for distances up to 300 meters. Intensely-damaged forest exhibited greater spatial dependence, but over a smaller distance. Canopy damage was not greater proximate to stream and forest boundaries, and did not follow our hypothesis of decreasing damage with distance from the boundary. Overall, we show that local topography (elevation and aspect), forest composition (deciduous or coniferous), and the meteorological characteristics of the disturbance event acted together to determine the spatial extent of ice storm damage.