Showing papers in "Parliamentary Affairs in 2018"

Digital Campaigning: The Rise of Facebook and Satellite Campaigns

Abstract: In this chapter we analyse some examples of digital practices led by parties during the 2017 General Election campaign. We argue that whilst targeted advertising through Facebook has become the new normal for parties, it raises important questions regarding data-use and public expectations that require attention. We also suggest that digital media has enabled new non-party organisations to conduct what we call ‘satellite campaigns’. This development raises issues around party control, activist organisation and what we can expect from future digital campaigns. Cumulatively we therefore argue that developments in the digital realm have important implications for our understanding of electoral campaigning.

Brexit or Corbyn?: Campaign and Inter-Election Vote Switching in the 2017 UK General Election

Abstract: The 2017 UK General Election saw the collapse of UKIP and an unusually influential campaign that saw Labour improving from a likely historic defeat to almost pulling level with the Conservatives, denying Theresa May a parliamentary majority. We argue that the election should be understood in two phases: first from 2015 to the start of the election campaign, and second the campaign itself. The former period was characterised by strong switching along Brexit lines, with 2015 UKIP voters defecting heavily to the Conservatives following the outcome of the EU Referendum, which had enabled the Conservatives to make credible promises on immigration. Concurrently, many 2015 Labour supporters had defected to other parties or were undecided. The campaign then saw Labour winning voters from all sources, but particularly from previously undecided voters. While campaign vote flows were not as strongly related to Leave/Remain votes, 2015–2017 switching as a whole was heavily influenced by the EU referendum choices. We conclude that 2017 was indeed a ‘Brexit election’, but the campaign is better understood as a general rise in support for Labour resulting from Corbyn's appeal relative to that of Theresa May, particularly among the party’s own 2015 voters who had defected before the campaign.

Committee Hearings of the UK Parliament: Who gives Evidence and does this Matter?

Abstract: While evidence hearings by House of Commons select committees have received increasing attention by the public and the media in recent years, academic research on this topic has remained rather thin. Drawing on both quantitative and qualitative methods, this article examines this topic. It begins by explaining why evidence is important: (i) it is fundamental to sustain detailed scrutiny; (ii) it builds individual-level and institutional-level expertise; and (iii) the range of evidence gathered is used by committees to engage with the public. The article then presents empirical data of the pool of witnesses on which committees rely, which arguably does not reflect the UK population, which raises important further questions over the representative claims of committees.

Participation in Local Elections: ‘Why Don’t Immigrants Vote More?’

Abstract: Why do immigrants vote less in local elections when they have the right to vote? I present a new representative survey on participation in the 2015 municipal elections in the Canton of Geneva, Switzerland, and predict electoral participation with logistic regression models. Most immigrant groups vote less than the majority population. Four explanations are tested for this difference: social origin (resources), political engagement, civic integration and networks, as well as socialisation. Individually, all these explanations are associated with differences in electoral participation, but contrary to some recent studies, substantive differences between nationalities remain.

Votes At 16: New Insights from Scotland on Enfranchisement

Abstract: This article presents new evidence on the experience of 16-year olds voting after the reduction of the voting age in Scotland following the 2014 independence referendum. Using survey data from 2015 it compares 16- to 17-year-old Scottish respondents with their peers in the rest of the UK to see whether we can observe difference in their political attitudes and behaviour ahead of the 2015 General Election. The analyses show potentially significant positive effects following the reduced voting age but distinguish different domains and show that distinctive effects for the youngest age group seem to be most pronounced in relation to political behaviour (both electoral and non-electoral forms), but to a lesser extent in terms of evaluations of politics more generally. The findings also highlight the important interplay between enfranchisement and different socialising agents for young people, in particular parents and civic education in schools.

Parliamentary Activity, Re-Selection and the Personal Vote. Evidence from Flexible-List Systems

Abstract: In this article, we analyse how the degree of parliamentary activity affects both individual MPs’ performance in the candidate selection process within the party and their popularity with voters at the electoral stage. We expect that parliamentary work of MPs matters less for voters’ evaluations of MPs because of limited monitoring capacities and lower salience attached to this type of representation. The empirical analysis uses data from recent elections in the Czech Republic and Sweden. During the analysed period, these countries further personalised their flexible list electoral systems. Our results suggest that parties hold MPs accountable mainly through the threat of non-re-selection rather than by assigning them to a promising list position. While there is no evidence that voters consistently reward MPs’ effort, the case of the Czech elections in 2010 shows that they may do so if context draws attention to individual MPs’ work.

The Conservative Party Leadership Election of 2016: An Analysis of the Voting Motivations of Conservative Parliamentarians

Abstract: This article provides the first systematic examination of the voting motivations of Conservative MPs in the final parliamentary ballot of the Conservative Party leadership election of 2016. We identify the voting behaviour of each Conservative parliamentarian as part of a unique data set that we use to test, through the use of multivariate analysis, a series of hypotheses based around social background variables (i.e. gender and education); political variables (i.e. parliamentary experience, electoral marginality, the electoral threat posed by UKIP and ministerial status); and ideological variables (i.e. attitudes towards same-sex marriage and Brexit). Our findings demonstrate that ideology did matter in terms of voting. Attitudes towards Brexit were central to the appeals of both Theresa May (to Remainers) and Andrea Leadsom (to Leavers). We also demonstrate that in terms of support for Leadsom, Brexit was not the only significant driver, as opinion on same-sex marriage, year of entry and ministerial status also influenced voting behaviour.

Digital Media, Ground Wars and Party Organisation: Does Stratarchy Explain How Parties Organise Election Campaigns?

Abstract: Campaigning is an essential function of modern political parties. According to some of the most well-known and widely-cited parts of the party scholarship it is also one of the defining features of party organisation. Yet this centrality is not reflected in the recent literature which has analysed the power dynamics within contemporary party organisations. These analyses have focused on a variety of party related functions, but none have considered campaigning. In this article, I apply the theory of stratarchical party organisation to campaigning in two Australian cases. Drawing on extensive interview data with those at the cutting edge of campaigning in these parties, I argue that there is evidence to suggest that the stratarchical model can explain how parties organise a modern campaign. However, unlike recent analyses, I argue that there is evidence of both power-sharing and mutual autonomy.

Representing the region on the floor: Socioeconomic characteristics of electoral districts and legislative speechmaking

Abstract: Does it matter which electoral districts Members of Parliament (MPs) represent when participating in parliamentary debates? We suggest that the party leadership, in particular in governing parties, will try to keep MPs off the floor if they come from regions with economic problems, because such MPs are more likely to deviate from the party line. This should be especially likely when MPs are directly elected and have incentives to create a personal platform. The characteristics of the German electoral system allow for evaluating this argument. By analysing 9824 speeches in Bundestag debates focusing on economic issues and 8357 speeches held in debates on societal, foreign and education policy, we find support for our hypotheses that directly elected MPs deliver significantly fewer speeches in economic debates the worse the economic situation is in the district they represent. However, there is no clear pattern when differentiating between MPs from the government or opposition camp in terms of the number of delivered speeches in parliamentary debates.

Between Conflict and Peace: An Analysis of the Complex Consequences of the Good Friday Agreement

Abstract: In the two decades since signing, the Good Friday Agreement (GFA) continues to generate acrimonious debate over whether it has brought about sustainable peace or fomented weak and sectarian governance institutions. In this article, I review the formation and outworking of the GFA. In so doing, I go beyond either/or analyses of the GFA to identify the complex forms of political agency it has generated, not necessarily envisioned by the Agreement’s architects. I draw particular attention to the ways in which the central support beams of the Agreement—consociationalism and Europeanisation—have gradually become weakened to threaten the sustainability of power-sharing institutions.

Parliamentary Work, Re-Selection and Re-Election: In Search of the Accountability Link

Abstract: Parliamentarians greatly differ with regard to the amount and quality of their work in parliament. Students of legislator behaviour mostly view Members of Parliament (MPs) as ‘single-minded seekers of re-election’, which is often argued to be the motivation for carrying out various activities. However, less attention has been paid to what extent MPs’ efforts pay off at the next elections. The special section introduced here addresses the question if the type and volume of parliamentary activities carried out by legislators have any effect on their electoral prospects. In other words, do parties and voters take MPs’ activity record into account when deciding on the re-election and the re-selection of an incumbent? To shed some light on this topic, we bring together students of legislative and electoral behaviour from all parts of Europe. Our general aim is to disentangle the necessary conditions for personal accountability to work in representative democracies.

Productivity and Reselection in a Party-based Environment: Evidence from the Portuguese Case

Abstract: Portugal is a crucial case when studying candidate reselection in a party-dominated setting. While we expect the productivity of Members of Parliament (MP) to be strongly associated with reselection, it should not affect the position of reselected representatives on the party list. These expectations are tested using data on MPs' parliamentary activities across eight years (from 2007 to 2015), while controlling for alternative hypotheses. Although the two main hypotheses are confirmed, we found that both electoral vulnerability and district magnitude condition the effect of MPs’ productivity on reselection. Overall, the results are in line with the literature on reselection and suggest that other factors, such as party loyalty, may be germane to the understanding of the reselection process in Portugal.

Governing under Pressure? The Mental Wellbeing of Politicians

Abstract: Despite the singular importance of the work of national politicians in creating legislation, representing constituents and holding government to account, relatively little work has been done concerning their wellbeing and psychological health. There are unique, as well as universal, stressors that impact upon politicians; a neglect of these issues has profound consequences for those individuals and wider democracy. We propose a ‘taxonomy of stressors’ as a starting point for further inter-disciplinary and comparative research, and argue that it offers analytical leverage vis-a-vis a far broader set of debates concerning the future of representative democracy.

The Politics of Symbols: Reflections on the French Government’s Framing of the 2015 Terrorist Attacks

Abstract: In January and again in November 2015 France was confronted with a series of coordinated terrorist attacks in Paris. These ‘events’ shocked France (and the world) and were presented by actors and observers as turning points. Yet, as all significant events, they give rise to a plurality of interpretations. We argue that the strategy developed by the French government is a good example of how contemporary politics mobilises the symbolic, a dimension of public policy that is often neglected. Using interviews with key advisors of the President and the Prime Minister and analyses of official speeches and performances in the first weeks after the attacks, we show how the government endeavoured to impose its framing of the attacks through rhetoric, symbols and performance in order to coproduce the ‘events’ as moments in which it acted decisively to unite the Nation.

Representing Diversity in Mixed Electoral Systems: The Case of New Zealand

Abstract: This article examines the representation of ethnic groups in mixed electoral systems. Analysing data from all Members of Parliament (MPs) in New Zealand’s Parliament since the introduction of a Mixed Member Proportional electoral system in 1996, we show that, despite increases over time, some ethnic minorities (and especially the Asian population) remain underrepresented, although to varying degrees across political parties. Ethnic minority MPs are also significantly more likely than majority MPs to be elected from a party list, although differences exist among ethnic groups. Finally, women are better represented among ethnic minority MPs than among MPs from the ethnic majority, but they tend, amongst most ethnic groups, to be more likely than men to be list MPs.

Politics and Parenthood: An Examination of UK Party Leadership Elections

Abstract: As women increasingly campaign for the highest political offices, this original content analysis study examines the extent to which gender and parenthood play a role in political leadership using British political party leadership elections as a case study. Competing hypotheses from the limited literature on politics and parenthood are examined. The article finds that family mentions have varied over time and contrary to some gender literature men’s family was at times of greater interest than women’s. Evidence is found for the politicisation of motherhood and a possible ‘maternal mandate’. In parallel, fatherhood was of increasing interest and the rise of the modern man can be seen. Yet, male candidates appear to have an ‘opt-out clause’ in any politicisation of fatherhood. Further questions about politics and parenthood begged by this article open future research avenues.

Contested Space, Peacebuilding and the Post-conflict City

Abstract: The physical renaissance of Belfast, with new waterfront developments, shopping precincts and tech-led industries, are potent signifiers of how far the region has come since the Belfast Agreement. However, the effects of regeneration have been socially and spatially uneven, and sites of modernity sit uncomfortably close to communities that are still affected by poverty, division and violence. This article identifies a range of competitive discourses on contested space, each one attempting to frame the problem in preferential but inevitably partial ways. The analysis concludes by emphasising the centrality of economics in peacebuilding, especially in the places left behind in the new post-conflict order.

Parliamentarisation as a Two-Way Process: Explaining Prior Parliamentary Consultation for Military Interventions

Abstract: This article investigates the drivers of the parliamentarisation of war powers. Building on recent findings in the study of war deployments, we argue that the existing literature has predominantly focused on parliamentary drivers of parliamentarisation, leaving potential executive interests untouched. To fill this gap, we propose a rational choice institutionalist-based framework for identifying the motivations and strategies of both parliamentary and executive actors in episodes of parliamentarisation. We apply this novel heuristic device to the case of Belgium and the parliamentary approval of the military interventions in Libya (2011) and Iraq (2014–) more in particular. Building upon data from interviews and document analysis, we show that stronger parliamentary involvement in the decision about military deployment is not just the result of increased parliamentary pressure, but equally, and perhaps most importantly, of the willingness and strategy of the executive to seek legitimacy or support.

Policy, Office and Votes: Conservative MPs and the Brexit Referendum

Abstract: The division within the Parliamentary Conservative Party (PCP) over Britain’s membership of the EU has been one of the most significant intra-party divisions in European political history. The 2016 Brexit referendum campaign offered a unique opportunity to consider legislative motivations as almost every MP declared a preference and frontbench MPs were free to back either side. This article uses logistic regression analysis in order to consider MPs’ motivations in terms of Muller and Strom’s policy, office and votes trichotomy. It is argued that all three motivations affected MPs decision making on the EU referendum. However, vote-seeking motivations were less influential than either policy or office-seeking.

One Step Forwards, Two Steps Back: Women’s Rights 20 Years after the Good Friday Agreement

Abstract: Despite the relatively unusual (by global standards) involvement of women in negotiations to the Good Friday Agreement (GFA), it is generally recognised that gender has been marginalised both in the descriptive and substantive representation of women in conflict transformation. Twenty years after the Agreement, this article discusses and reflects on the implications of the exclusion of gender policy issues both for women and wider society. Within the agreement itself women are only briefly mentioned with regard to political participation, and the institutional structures created from the GFA through their very design deprioritise any identity cleavage which is not ethno-national. In addition to impacting on the representation of women in formal politics, gendered issues such as gender-based violence either become sectarianised or marginalised, but ultimately remain unresolved. The article addresses the potential for developing and creating gender-sensitive policy concluding that processes of civic engagement and mobilisation offer increasing potential to disrupt the limitations of the overarching macro-political institutional structures.

Not All Roads Lead to Rome: The Conditional Effect of Legislative Activity on Reselection Prospects in Italy

Abstract: The literature shows that, on average, electorally vulnerable Members of Parliament (MPs) are more active than their colleagues. This article investigates whether parties have an incentive to reselect active MPs in a county with a closed-list electoral system. Being active is usually a way to increase one’s visibility among the constituency. We argue that parties have incentives to reselect active MPs only when they believe that voters pay attention to the qualities of individual candidates. The Italian case is a perfect case to test this argument because the attention paid by voters to individual candidates varies significantly between the northern and southern regions. Our empirical analysis reveals that being active leads to a higher probability to be re-selected only in regions where the style of representation is personalised.

The Electoral Value of Constituency-Oriented Parliamentary Questions in Hungary and Romania

Abstract: Drawing on a unique data set that combines legislative behaviour data and electoral results at two elections in Romania (2008, 2012) and one in Hungary (2014), the study assesses the overall electoral value of parliamentary questions dealing with local issues. Our multivariate regression analyses illustrate that the effect of constituency questions is distinguishable from that of the overall parliamentary effort of the MPs. Constituency questions brought Romanian MPs significantly more votes at each of the last two elections. In Hungary, where the scope for a personal vote was much more limited at the analysed elections, no effect is found.

Do Party Lists Matter? Political Party Strategies in Legislative Candidate Nominations

Abstract: In electoral systems with closed party lists, it is argued that the importance of central party organisation increases at the expense of individual candidates’ role in candidate nomination processes. This logic also underestimates individuals’ electoral potential and focuses on individuals’ allegiance to the leadership as the main asset for increasing their chances of being nominated. We argue that forming a party-list is a strategic decision based on the principle of furthering the interest of the party as a whole rather than rewarding individuals’ commitment to the party and is conditional on inter-party competition. We conveyed an original dataset of candidate lists for major parties in Turkey’s parliamentary elections between 1999 and 2015 and found empirical evidence for the significance of candidate lists as being used as strategic tools in inter-party electoral competition.

The Politics of Parliamentary Restoration and Renewal: Decisions, Discretion, Democracy

Abstract: An extensive literature on aversive constitutionalism and elite blockages outlines the manner in which embedded political elites will generally reject or dilute reform agendas that threaten their privileged position within a constitutional configuration. It is for exactly this reason that the same seam of scholarship frequently highlights the role of crises in terms of providing a ‘window of opportunity’ through which a significant or fundamental recalibration of a political system may be achieved. ‘The Palace of Westminster’ the Joint Committee on Restoration and Renewal (R&R) concluded in September 2016 ‘faces an impending crisis which we cannot possibly ignore’. Their recommendation was that the Palace be completely vacated for five to eight years so that a multibillion-pound programme of rebuilding work can be undertaken. This article offers the first research-based analysis of the ‘Scoping & Planning’ stage (2012–2016) and reveals the ‘hidden politics’ of R&R in the sense of how it threatens both the British Political Tradition and the position of the two main parties. This explains the nature of the very closed and secretive decision-making processes that have characterised this stage and why a number of formative decision-making points that have been deployed to frame and restrict the reform parameters.

UK Political Parties’ Youth Factions: A Glance at the Future of Political Parties

Abstract: After a long decline in membership in political parties across Western democracies, parties in the UK have seen an upsurge, especially in young members. Surprisingly, few studies have explored young members of political parties. This article addresses this gap and examines the following: Who are the young party activists? What do they think about politics? What are their motivations for political participation? This article draws on a unique dataset of activists in the three main parties youth factions in the UK. It finds that the youth faction activists have very similar socioeconomic backgrounds, perceive themselves to be politically effective and hold quite positive views about politicians. The analysis also shows that these young people do not consider their youth faction to be the only way for them to influence politics and are not self-interestedly motivated—that is, joining to begin or advance a political career. Finally, the article proposes improvements as to how political parties, and their youth factions, engage with young people in order to secure their future viability.

‘We Didn’t See it Coming’: The Conservatives

Abstract: This contribution to the ‘Britain Votes 2017’ special issue of Parliamentary Affairs focuses on the Conservative Party’s campaign. It was a campaign at which everything that could go wrong for the Conservatives did go wrong. The manifesto, which May’s Chief of Staff Nick Timothy believed would be an asset, turned into a liability, confirming the belief of her campaign consultant Lynton Crosby that the contest between the parties needed to be framed in terms of leadership. Unfortunately, however, Theresa May simply wasn’t the kind of presidential politician who could carry that kind of campaign. Nor did Brexit do her or her party as much of a favour as everyone had expected. For one thing, she seemed to think she could get away with mouthing mantras and platitudes about leaving the EU, opening up a vacuum that other issues rushed in to fill. For another, the number of UKIP, older, poorly-educated and working-class voters that the party gained as a result of the government’s tough talk on Europe seems to have been outweighed by the number of younger, better-educated, middle-class, Remain voters who were alienated and infuriated by it. More generally, the Tories suffered because they were unable or unwilling, ideologically or otherwise, to respond convincingly to increasing voter concern about ongoing cuts to key public services.

Answering the West Lothian Question? A Critical Assessment of ‘English Votes for English Laws’ in the UK Parliament

Abstract: In 2015, the UK House of Commons adopted new procedures known as ‘English Votes for English Laws’ (EVEL). This article evaluates whether EVEL has succeeded in answering the West Lothian Question, a constitutional anomaly arising from the asymmetrical character of governance in the UK. After outlining the historical background against which EVEL emerged as a supposed solution to this iconic question, the article explains how the 2015 reform works, and proceeds to assess its operation during the 2015–2017 parliament. It concludes that these new procedures appear to have overcome the main practical and constitutional obstacles associated with this type of reform, but they have, so far, failed to provide meaningful English representation at Westminster—particularly in relation to supplying England, and its MPs, with an enhanced ‘voice’.

Advice Giving and Party Loyalty: an Informational Model for the Socialisation Process of New British MPs

Abstract: Post-election socialisation has frequently been identified as a source of parliamentarians’ disposition towards party loyalty. Yet a recent study of the socialisation experiences of new members in the British Parliament, using tenure as proxy for socialisation, found little evidence of an effect on party loyalty (Rush and Giddings, 2011, Parliamentary Socialisation: Learning the Ropes or Determining Behaviour? London, Springer). This paper develops a new model of parliamentary socialisation and uses the same data to demonstrate that post-entry socialisation did in fact change legislators reported likeliness to behave in accordance with their party leadership’s wishes. Specifically, a framework based on information exchange (advice giving) is used to show that positive interactions with party actors are associated with increased loyalty. Controlling for initial levels of loyalty, members who received more useful advice from party actors were more likely to rate themselves as highly influenced by the party leadership.

Truth Friction in Northern Ireland: Caught between Apologia and Humiliation

Abstract: The Belfast Agreement ended the bulk of paramilitary and state violence, underlined majority consent, acknowledged the desire for Irish unification, reformed policing, de-militarised security and embedded ethno-sectarian power-sharing. However, the past remains unhealed and without an adequate vocabulary and behaviour required to structure conflict transformation. This article argues that the responsibility of politicians and other agents of victimhood should be to question the utility of harsh and one-sided assertions regarding the past and to conclude that denial is unpalatable when tied to amplified demand. The agency of that contestation is performance centred and rhetorically driven and reproduces alternative interpretations that evoke profound and divisive emotional states. The friction over truth recovery is abstraction-laden due to the agency of victimhood and its variant constructions.