A Statistical Investigation of Mesoscale Precursors of Significant Tornadoes: The Italian Case Study
Roberto Ingrosso,Piero Lionello,Mario Marcello Miglietta,Gianfausto Salvadori +3 more
- Vol. 11, Iss: 3, pp 301
TLDR
In this article, the role of the vertical wind shear in the lower and middle troposphere, in terms of low-level shear and deep level shear, and of the convective available potential energy (CAPE) as possible precursors of significant tornadoes is statistically investigated.Abstract:
In this study, mesoscale environments associated with 57 significant tornadoes occurring over Italy in the period 2000–2018 are analyzed. The role of the vertical Wind Shear in the lower and middle troposphere, in terms of low-level shear (LLS) and deep-level shear (DLS), and of the convective available potential energy (CAPE) as possible precursors of significant tornadoes is statistically investigated. Wind shear and CAPE data are extracted from the ERA-5 and ERA-Interim reanalyses. Overall, the study indicates that: (a) values of these variables in the two uppermost quartiles of their statistical distribution significantly increases the probability of tornado occurrences; (b) the probability increases for increasing values of LLS and DLS, and (c) is maximum when either wind shear or CAPE are large. These conclusions hold for both the reanalysis datasets and do not depend upon the season and/or the considered area. With the possible exception of weak tornadoes, which are not included in our study, our results show that large wind shear, in the presence of medium-to-high values of CAPE, are reliable precursors of tornadoes.read more
Citations
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Severe Convective Storms across Europe and the United States. Part II: ERA5 Environments Associated with Lightning, Large Hail, Severe Wind, and Tornadoes
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigate convective environments and their corresponding climatological features over Europe and the United States over the period 1979-2018 and show that the severity of convective hazards increases with increasing instability and wind shear (WMAXSHEAR).
Journal ArticleDOI
Comparison of Convective Parameters Derived from ERA5 and MERRA-2 with Rawinsonde Data over Europe and North America
Mateusz Taszarek,Natalia Pilguj,John T. Allen,Victor A. Gensini,Harold E. Brooks,Piotr Szuster +5 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors compared 3.7 mln raw-insonde observations from 232 stations over Europe and North America with proximal vertical profiles from ERA5 and MERRA2 to examine how well reanalysis depicts observed convective parameters.
Journal ArticleDOI
Tornadic environments in the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands based on ERA5 reanalysis
Oriol Rodríguez,Joan Bech +1 more
Journal ArticleDOI
Synoptic patterns and mesoscale precursors of Italian tornadoes
TL;DR: In this article, an analysis of synoptic patterns and mesoscale precursors is produced for Italian tornadoes for the period 2000-2018, based on the ERA-5 reanalysis.
Severe Thunderstorms and Climate Change
TL;DR: In this article, the current distribution of severe thunderstorms as a function of large-scale environmental conditions is presented, and it is shown that the intensity of tornadoes and large hail, given that they occur, tends to be almost entirely dependent on the convective available potential energy (CAPE) and deep-tropospheric wind shear.
References
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined all of the 0000 UTC soundings from the United States made during the year 1992 that have nonzero convective available potential energy (CAPE) and classified them as nonsupercell thunderstorms, supercells without significant tornadoes, and supercells with significant hurricanes.