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Clinical Prediction Models
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TLDR
This paper presents a case study on survival analysis: Prediction of secondary cardiovascular events and lessons from case studies on overfitting and optimism in prediction models.Abstract:
Introduction.- Applications of prediction models.- Study design for prediction models.- Statistical models for prediction.- Overfitting and optimism in prediction models.- Choosing between alternative statistical models.- Dealing with missing values.- Case study on dealing with missing values.- Coding of categorical and continuous predictors.- Restrictions on candidate predictors.- Selection of main effects.- Assumptions in regression models: Additivity and linearity.- Modern estimation methods.- Estimation with external methods.- Evaluation of performance.- Clinical usefulness.- Validation of prediction models.- Presentation formats.- Patterns of external validity.- Updating for a new setting.- Updating for a multiple settings.- Prediction of a binary outcome: 30-day mortality after acute myocardial infarction.- Case study on survival analysis: Prediction of secondary cardiovascular events.- Lessons from case studies.read more
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Journal ArticleDOI
Development and validation of a prediction rule for recurrent vascular events based on a cohort study of patients with arterial disease: the SMART risk score
Jannick A N Dorresteijn,Frank L.J. Visseren,Annemarie M J Wassink,Martijn J. A. Gondrie,Ewout W. Steyerberg,Paul M. Ridker,Nancy R. Cook,Yolanda van der Graaf +7 more
TL;DR: Patients at high risk for recurrent vascular events can be identified based on readily available clinical characteristics by the development and validation of models for prediction of recurrent vascular event risk based on vascular risk factors, imaging or both.
Journal ArticleDOI
Predicting the chances of a live birth after one or more complete cycles of in vitro fertilisation: population based study of linked cycle data from 113 873 women
David J. McLernon,Ewout W. Steyerberg,Egbert R. te Velde,Amanda J Lee,Siladitya Bhattacharya +4 more
TL;DR: This study provides an individualised estimate of a couple’s cumulative chances of having a baby over a complete package of IVF both before treatment and after the first fresh embryo transfer.
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Cardiovascular disease risk prediction equations in 400 000 primary care patients in New Zealand: a derivation and validation study
Romana Pylypchuk,Sue Wells,Andrew Kerr,Andrew Kerr,Katrina Poppe,Tania Riddell,Matire Harwood,Daniel J. Exeter,Suneela Mehta,Corina Grey,Billy Wu,Patricia Metcalf,Jim Warren,Jeff Harrison,Roger Marshall,Rod Jackson +15 more
TL;DR: A nationally representative cohort in New Zealand was recruited to develop equations relevant to patients in contemporary primary care and the performance of these new equations to equations that are recommended in the USA were compared.
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A systematic review finds prediction models for chronic kidney disease were poorly reported and often developed using inappropriate methods.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors conducted a systematic search of PubMed database to identify studies published up until September 2011 that describe the development of models combining two or more variables to predict the risk of prevalent or incident CKD or ESKD.
Journal ArticleDOI
PICADAR: a diagnostic predictive tool for primary ciliary dyskinesia
Laura Behan,Borislav D. Dimitrov,Claudia E. Kuehni,Claire Hogg,Mary P. Carroll,Hazel J. Evans,Myrofora Goutaki,Amanda Harris,Samantha Packham,Woolf T. Walker,Jane S. Lucas +10 more
TL;DR: PICADAR represents a simple diagnostic clinical prediction rule with good accuracy and validity, ready for testing in respiratory centres referring to PCD centres, and has seven predictive parameters: full-term gestation, neonatal chest symptoms, Neonatal intensive care admittance, chronic rhinitis, ear symptoms, situs inversus and congenital cardiac defect.